Roundup 20 November

UPDATE. Heads up on a libertarian blog The Grumpy Economist (actually John Cochrane says he is not grumpy).

Windwatching.  At the evening peak yesterday Wind was running at a third of plated capacity and delivering 10% of the total demand for power. At the low point around 3am today Wind was running at 50% of plated capacity and delivering 16% of the total demand. What are the wind warriors like Alan Kohler of the Australian not understanding about the choke point of wind power when they think that beefing up the provision of wind and solar factories is going to keep the system up in the absence of coal? Recently he wrote:

According to independent research house Rystad Energy, the total pipeline of Australian renewable projects now stands at 133GW, which would be well over double the entire existing national capacity. A total of 39.4GW has already been added year to date, 54 per cent of which is large-scale solar. As a result, renewable energy has contributed 22 per cent of Australia’s total electricity needs so far this year. “Coal-fired generation could be extinct by 2040,” says Rystad.

Major unrest in Iran over doubling of petrol prices. The Revolutionary Guard rises to the occasion and there are reports of 200 deaths and many hundreds of arrests. This movement is spreading, see the riots in Chile and the Yellow Jackets in France celebrating their anniversary.

Trouble in  Wind Energy Paradise.  Germany was a leader in the green energy transition that resulted in the trifecta of failure –  higher prices, reduced security and next to no impact on emissions. Now Germany is a leader in the collapse of the wind industry.

The manufacturers of turbines and solar panels are dropping like flies, as subsidies are rolled back across Europe.  The wind and solar ‘industries’ that gave birth to green jobs simply can’t survive without massive and endless subsidies.

The wind back in subsidies across Europe has all but destroyed the wind industry: in Germany this year a trifling 35 onshore wind turbines have been erected, so far.

Danish turbine maker, Vestas was recently forced to axe 600 of its groovy ‘green’ jobs. Its rival Siemens Gamesa, sacked 600 workers in its Danish operations.

Spreading like a contagion, the demise of turbine manufacturers across Europe has taken hold in Germany, with Enercon lining up to sack 3,000 of its workers.

The Africans are revolting. They tell the warmies in the west to get stuffed, or words to that effect. No Apologies: African Leaders Say Their Need For Coal And Oil Outweighs Climate Concerns.

A handful of protesters on the ground floor of the cavernous Cape Town International Convention Centre spread fake oil on the ground and chanted, demanding an end to fossil fuels. Two floors above, the hundreds of delegates at Africa Oil Week were largely unaware – and mostly unmoved – by the display.

 Extinction Rebellion calls African Oil Leaders “Climate Criminals.”

 Carbon taxes and grand larceny. The Other Side of Climate & the Interpol guide to carbon trading crime.  “Carbon trading has become a huge business based on the absence of delivery of an invisible substance to no one.” Features a short video recorded by Jo Nova many years ago blowing the whistle on Big Money players in the climate wars and the sums of money in play. The figures are out of date but you get the picture!

 Jo Nova on the bullying of climate scientists who do not conform to the alarmist paradigm. A collection of posts.

 Another dream about unreliable energy goes pear-shaped. Georgetown, where the green energy dream turned into a nightmare.   Al Gore might be happy to encourage towns like Georgetown to go renewable but the people of the town pay the inflated green electricity bills.

Bjorn Lomborg: Climate activists are focused on the wrong solutions.  As it is becoming obvious that political responses to global warming such as the Paris treaty are not working, environmentalists are urging us to consider the climate impact of our personal actions. But what is the point?

The Paris treaty cannot do much — just like the Rio and Kyoto pacts mostly failed before it — because this approach requires rich countries to promise future economic hardship to achieve very little.

What is more, the mania to replace reliable energy sources with ‘renewable’ energy is already a fiasco wrapped up in a scam, but the full impact of policies that cripple industry while pouring public money into rent-seeker’s pockets will become even more apparent when today’s wind farms need decommissioning.

 The Bushfire Industrial Complex

Bushfire fighting in Australia has become horrendously expensive. Unbelievable sums are spent on aircraft, and to a large extent this is wasted. Water bombing is futile against a crown fire in eucalypt forest; you might just as well shovel $100 notes out of the plane. If no more than the sums spent hiring aircraft from overseas was saved, it could be channelled into re-creating the permanent force of land management staff who once occupied the nation’s forest districts and were responsible for the fuel-reduction burning programs.

Jennifer Marohasy’s Top Ten Hits on the Bureau of Meteorology

Much of Dr Jennifer Marohasy’s research over the past decade has been on Bureau of Meteorology practice of homogenizing raw data to produce different temperature figures. Her concerns raised are not with the concept of homogenisation per se, but rather with the non-transparent and non-repeatable way it is done.

Australian Taxpayers Alliance. Get-Up uses bushfires for their own grubby ends.

It’s sickening that a lobby group which has received over $500,000 in foreign funding from opaque sources for their political campaigns, is shamelessly using tragic bushfires as an excuse to ask for even more money.” said Satya Marar, ATA Director of Policy.

Government throws money at farmers hoping drought will go away.

The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance, the nation’s largest grassroots advocacy group representing taxpayers, today called for an investigation into corruption within the Murray Darling Basin Authority and condemned the Morrison government for spending $1billion in taxpayer dollars to subsidise farmers without addressing the actual causes of the drought.

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19 Responses to Roundup 20 November

  1. Lazlo

    The NAB CEO has said that they will not lend to thermal coal projects. NAB is saying that they will not fulfil their role of supporting vital Australian industries. Consequently, there is no need for NAB to retain their privilege of government-guaranteed deposits.

    Withdraw the government guarantee to NAB tomorrow Josh.

  2. PB

    African Leaders say their need for bling outweighs their peoples need for coal and oil. That’s far more likely a scenario.

  3. Ellen

    Germany had almost 29,250 onshore turbines by July 2019. So wind power will continue to be used there even though there’s been a decline in construction. That would have happened sooner or later because there is clearly a practical limit of the number that can be built in a small densely populated country.

    https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/german-onshore-wind-power-output-business-and-perspectives.

    Re the drought. What do you think are the actual causes, and how can the government address these? I would really like to know because I live in a drought-struck area, with a Code Red Fire alert tomorrow.

  4. stackja

    PB – You don’t like coal power?

  5. stackja

    Greenies policies not working?
    I am shocked!

  6. stackja

    We haven’t been told if the celebrated Wollemi Pine survived the bush fire.
    Centuries of natural fire, left it unscathed but not Green policies?

  7. Mark M

    These are the same 4 banks that were found by a royal commission to be stealing from their customers, and allowing illegal transferring of funds overseas terrorists.

    Who is surprised they are involved in the climate fraud?

    All 4 Australian banks are now on-board for 100% renewable energy by 2025 –
    https://news.nab.com.au/addressing-climate-change-and-environmental-sustainability/

    Our latest actions are:

    . Increasing our environmental financing commitment from $55bn to $70bn by 2025. We are Australia’s largest arranger of renewable energy finance and 69% of our energy financing in FY19 was for renewables.
    . Increasing our internal renewable energy objective from 50% to 100% by 2025 and becoming a member of RE100, bringing together businesses committed to using only renewable electricity.

    . Supporting current coal-fired power generation customers implementing transition pathways aligned with Paris Agreement goals of 45% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050.
    We will not finance new or material expansions of coal-fired power generation facilities unless there is technology in place to materially reduce emissions.

    . Capping thermal coal mining exposures at current levels and reducing thermal coal mining financing by 50% by 2028 and intended to be effectively zero by 2035, apart from residual performance guarantees to rehabilitate existing coal assets.
    NAB will not take on new-to-bank thermal coal mining customers.

  8. Mark M

    FWIW, NAB were the last to become to commit to RE100:

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/anz-joins-re100-and-commits-to-source-100-renewables-by-2025/

    “Commonwealth Bank was the first Australian company to join the RE100 initiative back in late-2018, and was followed by Bank Australia in April of this year, and then Westpac a couple of weeks later.”

  9. While Europe is withdrawing subsidies, Australia forges ahead with ever more subsidies. To what end is anyone’s guess.

  10. Mark M

    Obama 2013: ‘The Planet Will Boil Over’ If Africans Are Allowed Cars and Air Conditioning

  11. Ben

    Rafe, if you download the AEMO ISP assumptions workbook (link below it’s a 25MB MSExcel spreadsheet with about 50 tabs), travel across about 25 tabs to the tab labelled “Firm Capacity”, you will see in the top right a small table titled “Wind and solar peak contribution factor”.

    These are the numbers used by AEMO to develop their forecasting models. They are well aware that wind and solar contribute marginally to peak demand. Everybody is well aware of this, except Lily D’Ambrosio, the ABC and the rest of the bandwagon media.

    The table has several notes, including
    Note 1: Peak contribution factor refers to the percentage of total capacity expected to be available at the time of peak demand, as used to measure the available generation reserves in the capacity outlook model

    Note 3: QLD and TAS have a limited sample size of existing scheduled, semi-scheduled and/or significant non-scheduled wind generators. As such, AEMO applies the New Entrant contribution to peak for these regions

    The table is presented below (apologies if the formatting fails):

    Generator Summer Winter
    NSW wind, existing 9.94% 9.20%
    NSW wind, new entrant 9.34% 9.83%
    VIC wind, existing 9.39% 5.10%
    VIC wind, new entrant 8.26% 7.81%
    SA wind, existing 12.05% 6.22%
    SA wind, new entrant 12.32% 8.55%
    QLD wind 13.97% 20.14%
    TAS wind 13.08% 14.88%
    Solar 0.00% 0.00%

    https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-and-Methodologies

  12. I_am_not_a_robot

    @ Ellen:

    Germany had almost 29,250 onshore turbines by July 2019 …

    According to the link those turbines supply only 14% of Germany’s electricity.
    Germany has pledged to shut down all nuclear generators by 2022 and all coal (black & brown) generators by 2038 forcing the country to be in the unenviable position of relying greatly on Russian gas imports.

    Re the drought. What do you think are the actual causes, and how can the government address these?

    Mother Nature and very little, certainly not building windmills (unless to pump water).

  13. I_am_not_a_robot

    Puffery about how much electricity is generated by wind and solar from time to time overlooks their fundamental flaw viz. that in the long run their adoption will be ruinous:

    The economic efficiency and wealth of a society strongly depend on the best choice of energy supply techniques which involves many parameters of quite different significance. The “energy returned on invested”, EROI (often also called ERoEI), is the most important parameter as it describes the overall life-cycle efficiency of a power supply technique, independent from temporary economical fluctuations or politically motivated influence distorting the perception of the real proportions. The EROI answers the simple question: “How much useful energy do we obtain for a certain effort to make this energy available”.

    Link.

  14. I_am_not_a_robot

    29,250 onshore turbines have caused very little overall reduction in Germany’s CO2 emissions and that reduction is mainly due to the increase in the cost of electricity, or what is euphemistically called ‘demand management’.
    It would be much more rational and cheaper for the government to simply artificially jack up the price of electricity and save the cost of the turbine eyesores and the landscape.

  15. Mark M

    Don’t tell Greta …

    China ramps up coal power in face of emissions efforts
    Study shows new plants being added equivalent to entire capacity of EU

    https://www.ft.com/content/c1feee40-0add-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

    “China is building so much coal power that it more than offsets the decline elsewhere.

    Yet this figure still dwarfs the pace of new construction elsewhere.
    Last year China’s net additions to its coal fleet were 25.5GW, while the rest of the world saw a net decline of 2.8GW as more plants were closed than were built.”

  16. min

    Ellen Suggest you read Der Spiegal re Germany and renewables available on Google. It is a left wing magazine and explained the trouble Germany and Merkel are in as result of the trillions that have been spent on renewables.
    Renewables have run their life span and there is now a problem of what to do with old turbines and solar panels.

  17. Bushfire fighting in Australia has become horrendously expensive. Unbelievable sums are spent on aircraft, and to a large extent this is wasted. Water bombing is futile against a crown fire in eucalypt forest

    Easy to say when your place isn’t in the firing line. The amazing skill & bravery of the helicopter pilots and the VLATS water bombers in the Capertee Valley over the last week has prevented the western front of the Wollemi (Gospers Mt) fire from destroying property down in the valley. It isn’t over yet – but the combination of RFS ground crew & their containment lines plus these aerial saviours are holding the lines.

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