Roundup 24 November. Mostly climate stuff

Windwatch. Wind delivering 4% of demand at the evening peak Sat 23. This morning at the peak, 3 to 4% of demand. At midday it was down to 2% and by the evening peak it is up to 4.5%.

Ian PlimerLet’s-not-pollute-minds-with-carbon-fears

In the past decade China has increased its carbon dioxide emissions by 53 per cent, 12 times Australia’s total carbon dioxide output of 1.3 per cent of the global total. The grasslands, forests, farms and continental shelves of Australia absorb far more carbon dioxide than we emit. The attack on emissions of the gas of life is an irrational attack on industry, our modern way of life, freedoms and prosperity. It has nothing to do with the environment.

Jo Nova on the European Climate and Energy Institute conference in Munich.

The mob tried to shut down these dangerous speakers… but they didn’t win.. though they had to find another venue with only days to go.

The program for the 13th Annual Conference

Friday James Taylor then Benny Pieser, the Dr Helmut Alt,

After lunch, Peter Ridd, Dr. Michael Schnell, Dr Nicola Scaffetta, Dr Susan Crockford, Myron Ebell.

An amusing side note, one of the speakers could not get there because an “electricity failure” in Germany stranded his train. WTF? You won’t hear about that on the ABC!

US Electricity prices. The US generally comes up looking good in comparison with the the rest of the world but still the price of electricity increased by 50% in the decade from 2001 to 2010. Some interesting state-by-state analysis, especially Figure 3 that shows how coal and hydro make for cheap power while the unreliables put up the price. No surprise there. Figure 4 is interesting to see the political dimension measured by the amount of support for Obama.

China going nuclear.  Looking for nuclear power to provide 10% of the load in a decade.      Places where the masses are revolting at high fuel prices driven by climate alarmism:  France – the Yellow Jackets, Holland – farmers with tractors, Iran and Chile.

Don Aitkin on utopian dreams and engineering reality. Commentary on Michael Kelly’s very important paper explaining how basic science and engineering principles rule out the possibility for a comprehensive green power transition in the forseeable future.

 If we did magically convert all fossil-fuel powered transport to electricity, Kelly argues, the capacity of the grid would have to treble. [If all city vehicles in Sydney were converted in the same way, virtually all buildings would have to be retro-fitted, at great expense to somebody, and grid capacity would have to be increased dramatically, again at great expense. What great good would come from this sweeping change?]

He doubts that there can be a marked improvement in battery technology: Modern lithium-ion batteries are better[than the lead-acid type], but not much: all the R&D over the last 40 years has given a 50-fold increase in energy density, but we are now approaching the limits allowed by the materials as we know them. In other words, there is not another 1000-fold improvement to be had that might allow batteries to compete with petrol. The reason is clear: all the chemical energy in all the relevant chemical bonds in petrol is available when the fuel is burned. In a battery, most of the weight is not converted to usable energy.

The World Climate Declaration, signed by 700 climate realists, was launched in Brussels two days ago. The Declaration states that There is No Climate Emergency. This is the Executive-summary-of-World-Climate-Declaration  and this is the World-Climate-Declaration-in-full  with the  names of the 700 signatories including numerous Australians headed by Viv Forbes and Ian Plimer who are leading members of the movement.

A disturbing development. The march of climate alarmism through the board rooms of the nation.

The nation will be buffeted by rising sea levels and an increase in the intensity and frequency of bushfire and cyclone risks as a result of higher temperatures, according to a report by Australia’s largest general insurer IAG.

The report, a collaboration between IAG and the US Center for Atmospheric Research, includes the latest data on the state of the climate and predictions on extreme weather events based on a range of warming scenarios of up to 3 degrees from pre-industrial times.

IAG chief executive Peter Harmer said there was an urgent need for Australia to prepare for climate change and adapt to it.

More research is required but it looks as though the origin of the insurance fraud might be traced to the IPCC as described in chapter 28 of Donna Laframboise’s expose of that unworthy organization. That chapter follows the story about pseudo-scientific data on hurricanes that became part of the IPCC Assessment Report.

So a dubious finding that originated in a paper written by an insurance company was included in the Climate Bible in 2001. It then made its way into the peer-reviewed scientific literature in 2005. By 2009 it was being regarded as gospel by the US Government.

One of the expert reviewers asked a searching question about some papers that were accepted despite contradicting the views of a leading expert in the field. The question wss “What did the expert think about these papers?” He was not asked. One of the graphs in a key paper was criticized by another expert reviewer, and a different graph appeared in the final report, making the same (alarming) point.

Finally, in February 2010, a contributing author of the chapter admitted he had drawn up the new graph “informally”. [run that past me again!]. In the words of the (excluded) expert “The IPCC created a graph that did not exist in the peer reviewed literature or in the grey literature to suggest a relationship between increasing temperatures and rising disaster costs“.

The Portal to a collection of fellow-travellers

In no particular order. Australian Institute for Progress, The Institute of Public Affairs IPA, the Centre for Independent Studies CIS, The Sydney Institute, Mannkal Economic Education Foundation, Quadrant On Line, The Australian Taxpayers Alliance, Tim Blair, Andrew Norton, the classical liberal in Carlton, Rite-ON admirable Queensland activists!, The Menzies Research Centre, Jim Rose Utopia You Are Standing in It. LibertyWorks. On Line Opinion.

Overseas. Spiked, Cato Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Dan Mitchell, The Last Refuge.

Education and Culture. Quillette. Heterodox Academy. Accuracy in Academia, Intellectual Takeout, Institute for Humane Studies.

For Nerds. Rafe’s website, Critical Rationalist Blog, My bookstore.

Looking for a book? Try here.

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

20 Responses to Roundup 24 November. Mostly climate stuff

  1. egg_

    There is No Climate Emergency

    And ruinables are a non-solution to a non-problem, Comrade.

  2. Snoopy

    This is the Executive Summary and this is the full statement with the

    Two bad links?

  3. Mark A

    If we did magically convert all fossil-fuel powered transport to electricity, Kelly argues, the capacity of the grid would have to treble.

    Who said that was the aim?

    NO private transport in the long run.
    That is the aim.

  4. Rafe Champion

    Thanks Snoopy, fixed!

  5. IAG chief executive Peter Harmer said there was an urgent need for Australia to prepare for climate change and adapt to it.

    Guess what we aren’t doing? Adapt doesn’t mean get rid of civilisation. I think the insurance companies and especially the underwriters need to be worried that going too far with industry destroying activities will ultimately affect them in a significant and detrimental way. They need to start lobbying for a sane approach to this fabricated climate emergency.

  6. Kneel

    “The nation will be buffeted by rising sea levels and an increase in the intensity and frequency of bushfire and cyclone risks as a result of higher temperatures, according to a report by Australia’s largest general insurer IAG.

    The report, a collaboration between IAG and the US Center for Atmospheric Research, includes the latest data on the state of the climate and predictions on extreme weather events based on a range of warming scenarios of up to 3 degrees from pre-industrial times.”

    So, in fact, IAG did not say seas would rise etc etc, (US) NCAR did – IAG projected what that would mean for them (IAG). Fortunately for IAG, this means they can increase premiums before any extra losses. Of course, if such loses don’t eventuate, IAG will not be able to lower premiums, because that would significantly affect their profit and profit growth, both of which are the KPIs for executive bonuses…

  7. Bad Samaritan

    Great that they got James Taylor for the Friday session of the conference in Munich. When he says he’s seen Fire and he’s seen Rain it kinda puts the whole ACC shibboleth in perspective eh?

  8. Siltstone

    IAG and other insurers push doom and gloom hard so as to raise premiums the gullible will be pleased to pay.

  9. Mark M

    Doomsday delayed!

    July 2019: We have 18 months to save world, Prince Charles warns Commonwealth leaders
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/07/11/18-months-save-world-prince-charles-urges-commonwealth-leaders/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AsxWNkwFVg6h

    22 Nov 2019: Prince Charles talks about climate change, says humans only have 10 yrs to ‘change the course’
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/prince-charles-talks-about-climate-change-says-humans-only-have-10-yrs-to-change-the-course/articleshow/72180888.cms

    40 years of failure …

    14 Nov 2019: The Prince of Wales says he has spent decades trying to convince major businesses and governments to invest in sustainability
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/prince-charles-reveals-struggle-companies-20883264

    As he flies from England to Tokyo to India to New Zealand and the Solomon Islands, Charles complains that he can’t convince people to behave as it there’s a climate crisis.

    Seems that Andrew is the smart one.

  10. John A

    Siltstone #3243488, posted on November 24, 2019 at 8:18 am

    IAG and other insurers push doom and gloom hard so as to raise premiums the gullible will be pleased to pay.

    I hope they realise that they are asking businesses to scale back their assets and business operations so that there will be less to insure in the future.

  11. Entropy

    I hope they realise that they are asking businesses to scale back their assets and business operations so that there will be less to insure in the future.

    But we are increasing g our population by halfa mill each year. That will keep pressure on asset prices. It’s a virtuous circle.

  12. New Chum

    Will there be enough batteries to power the world?
    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/
    Transition to electric vehicles puts heavy pressure on production of critical metals
    Posted: November 12, 2019 by oldbrew in Critique, Travel

    Critics of fuel power speak of the finite nature of oil and natural gas discoveries. A reminder here that resources are far from unlimited for EVs, in the short term at least. No sign of much appetite for switching to smaller cars either, with SUV demand rising fast.

    The current production of a number of critical metals is insufficient for the large-scale transition to electric vehicles.
    This is the conclusion of a report by environmental scientists Benjamin Sprecher and organisations Copper8 and Metabolic, reports TechXplore.
    As a solution, they advocate more electric car-sharing, cars with a smaller battery and improved recycling.

  13. Transition to electric vehicles puts heavy pressure on production of critical metals

    What this article omits is ‘Fairy Dust’, the solution to every Green problem.

  14. Anyway, this weekend I’ve been doing my bit for the climate emergency. I’m cutting up and splitting two very large gum trees that have come down and preparing to make them ready for winter when I will rejuvenate the climate with lots of lovely carbons.

  15. egg_

    “The nation will be buffeted by rising sea levels

    Doesn’t Fort Denison beg to differ, Mr Insurer?

  16. egg_

    As he flies from England to Tokyo to India to New Zealand and the Solomon Islands, Charles complains that he can’t convince people to behave as it there’s a climate crisis.

    Chuck will simply have to put in more air miles – Tampon Class?

  17. egg_

    I hope they realise that they are asking businesses to scale back their assets and business operations so that there will be less to insure in the future.

    But we are increasing g our population by halfa mill each year. That will keep pressure on asset prices.

    Those cracking, inflammable sh1tholer dogboxes must be expensive to insure?

  18. Cynic of Ayr

    At the IAG board…
    “Fellow Board members, we are in a bit of bother. Profits are down.”
    “Profits are down? How can that be? We’re in the Insurance Business forfuckssake.”
    “Well, it seems that houses are being built stronger, cars are safer, stupid people are building their houses in the bush amongst the trees and grass…”
    [Interruption] Are we losing money with these Greenie idiots?”
    “Some, but it can be covered by raising prices in the city. The Greenie idiots there are so sympathetic to their Greenie mates amongst the trees that they won’t complain. However, across the industry, profits are still down. What to do about it?”
    [Mumblings and mutterings ensue.]
    “We could agree with the Climate Change jackasses…”
    “How so?”
    “Well, they’re always yammering on about sea level rises, high winds, low winds, heat, cold, all sorts of calamities. They’ve been doing it for years!”
    “Yes, but nothing has happened!”
    We know that! But the drongos in the street don’t know it. Even the stupid bloody Government doesn’t know it.”
    [Nods of heads … true, true.]
    “So, if we jump on this band wagon, agree with that moron Gore, and that sheila in Parliament, what’s her name, the one that thinks all TV shows, even Daffy Duck cartoons, are real?”
    “Sarah Handless-Bung… or something.”
    “That’s her! Anyway, if the people are scared to death that their houses in the Blue Mountains are going to be washed away by rising sea levels, we can charge the pants off them to insure their house!”
    “And their SUVs.”
    “Brilliant! And even the Government is on our side. They won’t disagree with us, because they’re terrified of this Sarah… what was her name. I forget.”
    “And some Swedish kid who thinks she’s Jesus Christ…”
    “Her too. Anyway, what doya think?”
    “It’s great! Not only can we raise prices on houses being washed away, we can raise the cost of the fire risk too.”
    “Ya”ll know there are only a relatively few houses burnt, in the scheme of things.”
    “Of course! But the ABC are lying their heads off, reporting that nearly every house in the freaking country has been burnt down. They’re on our side too!”
    “And the schools are scaring the pants off the kids, and they’re going home wailing to their idiot parents about their house being burnt down in ten years, or something…”
    “Righto then. We’ll put it to a vote. Those in favour of screwing the arse off the public with a pack of lies about sea level rises and all that crap, which the Secretary can rewrite with a bit more hand wringing and concern, say Aye.”
    “Aye, Aye Aye, Too right, Yes, MeToo, Aye, Aye, Aye, Right on, Aye, Aye.”
    “OK. That’s the profit problem fixed. Now onto Board remuneration. Those in favor of a salary rise due to the increases in profits from the last vote, say Aye.”
    “Aye, Yes, Good, Aye Aye, Too right, Yes, MeToo, Aye, Aye, Aye, Aye.”

  19. mem

    Seems Mr Morrison thinks hydrogen is our future with announcement new funding this past week. Hydrogen has a lot of limitations including its volatility. Our insurers might want to get their sticky fingers on higher premiums to cover the inevitable explosions.
    Hydrogen initially APPEARS to be an ideal fuel for vehicles.

    If Hydrogen is oxidized (or even burned), it creates virtually no pollution, exclusively water vapor.

    Hydrogen does not exist naturally (it is such a chemically active element that it all exists within other chemical compounds such as water, methane gas, organic materials, etc) and so it must be extracted from other chemicals, such as by the electrolysis of water. Such processes require very large amounts of external energy to accomplish. (Electrolysis requires using up at least five times as much electricity, to extract a small amount of hydrogen, to then use as as fuel.)

    The vast majority (95%) of current Hydrogen production in the US is made by a catalytic conversion of methane gas, because it is easier and cheaper than electrolysis of water. However, those processes of using large amounts of fossil fuels to create Hydrogen also create around 9 pounds of carbon dioxide for each pound of Hydrogen produced, so they are terribly un-Green.

    A scientific Law called the Conservation of Energy, which is also called the First Law of Thermodynamics, which requires that the external source of energy MUST supply at least as much energy as the hydrogen could ever later release.

    Hydrogen gas has very low density, where one pound takes up nearly 200 cubic feet of volume. So gaseous Hydrogen is not very practical to store as a fuel.

    Compressing Hydrogen to 3,000 PSI is very difficult, very expensive to do, and requires a lot of external energy to accomplish. Once it is in such extremely high-pressure (heavy) tanks, it poses an extreme danger should a vehicle ever get into an accident. (as of about 2012, some experimental vehicles have tanks of hydrogen at 10,000 PSI, because of this problem of size). I fear the results when one of those vehicles happens to get run over by a semi truck and the tank explodes, so this may be well in the future. Wherever you go to rent a high-pressure hydrogen tank, they always have a bunch of photos on the walls of car accidents, where the exploding tank totally destroyed a vehicle beyond recognition. There is also another approach being studied regarding storing hydrogen using microscopic carbon nano-tubes, but current technology would cost around a million dollars for a gas-tank-sized amount of hydrogen stored this way! Whether this has any actual future probably depends on major breakthroughs some day. And there is yet another way to store a lot of hydrogen in a small space, the way NASA does for many of its rockets, of refrigerating the hydrogen down to around -400°F to liquefy it. This is spectacularly hard and expensive to do, and liquid hydrogen is extremely expensive as a result. It also is difficult to keep it down at -400°F, and so it warms up and tends to disappear as a gas within a few hours! Bummer!

    There is yet another complication. If the Hydrogen was meant to be used as a fuel for an internal combustion engine, such modern engines are only around 22% efficient, mostly because such engines need cooling systems that necessarily waste around 40% and the usual exhaust system also wastes another 40%.

    These many problems have long been known. In the 1960s, NASA developed Fuel Cells, which operate somewhat similarly to how Electrolysis works, in reverse! NASA needed reliable supplies of electricity for spacecraft, and NASA had unlimited budgets! NASA developed Fuel Cells which could generate 200 Watts of electricity, and the Fuel Cells only cost about a million dollars each! For automotive purposes, you need to know that 200 Watts is about 1/4 horsepower! When some promoter tells the public about Fuel Cells, he NEVER mentions that the device he speculates about is not even remotely as powerful as a lawnmower! Yes, the TECHNOLOGY is attractive, but it may be LONG in the future before it actually gets to be practical and economically credible. Oh, by the way, even NASA’s million dollar Fuel Cells were/are only about 40% efficient, where the theoretical efficiency of Fuel Cells should be nearly 100%. A LOT of the media promotion for Fuel Cells are still mostly optimistic dreams.

    The sum of these factors, and others, currently makes Hydrogen a rather undesirable fuel for vehicles. Maybe some day! But the number of huge problems to overcome is impressive and it might easily be fifty or a hundred years before they are solved.

    If you would like to read further including Hydrogen as power source, storage etc I suggest you search for a page titled Hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles Every time I tried to post a link it disappeared.

  20. Rafe Champion

    Bring back the zeppelin.

    Pity about the hydrogen in the balloon but! The end of the Hindenberg.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.