Karl Rove on the 2020 election

Pete Buttigieg wins Iowa, but no Democrat arrives at the convention with a majority. The nomination requires delegates switching sides after the initial first vote or a second ballot where superdelegates are permitted to participate. I pick Biden to win, but I’d take the field if I could.

Because Democrats are concentrated in California and New York, Trump trails in the popular vote. Trump wins Florida. Ohio, now redder, isn’t in play. Iowa swings Democratic. Trump does better than in 2016 among African-American and Latino voters.

The election again comes down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump must win at least two. They’re settled by a wider margin than the 77,744 votes of the 13,940,912 these Blue Wall states cast in 2016. Victory depends on Trump’s discipline and who the Democrats nominate. If it’s Biden, Trump has an uphill fight; if not, the President wins.

Republicans keep the Senate and Democrats the house, both with smaller majorities.

Source.

Sounds about right.

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17 Responses to Karl Rove on the 2020 election

  1. stackja

    Biden and son win?
    Ukraine happy?

  2. vlad

    If it’s Biden, Trump has an uphill fight

    Never underestimate your enemies … but that doesn’t sound right to me.

    If it’s Sleepy Joe I’d say DJT is a shoo-in.

  3. Bruce of Newcastle

    Biden would be unelectable if the MSM ever showed the videos of him groping women in front of everyone. What woman would vote for him?

    Then there’s the slowly emerging story of what he and his son got up to in Ukraine and other countries.

    On the other hand this is going to be the dirtiest election ever seen in the USA, by far. The Dems piloted vote farming in Orange County with great success. It is a sure thing that they will roll that out across the entire country.

    I fear what what would happen if Biden wins dirty, but the Dems seem prepared to win as dirty as is humanly possible. I hope the Secret Service will be on the ball in 2020.

  4. Tom

    I have to keep reminding myself the reason 2020 is even close is that the American news media has become a department of the Democratic Party, spraying anti-Trump invective/propaganda into American living rooms 24/7. The Australian media’s 24/7 Trump hatred pales by comparison.

  5. mh

    The pattern is if there is no obvious front runner the Prez gets a second term.

    Clinton vs … who in 96?
    Bush vs … was it Kerry? 2004
    Obama vs Romney, 2012

  6. Peter Pickled

    Rove is the exact opposite of Trump and is still bitter re 2012. A globalist shill that put numpty Bush in the White House. It must be the slowest news day ever for me to listen to anything that bloated turd has to say.

  7. Nighthawk the Elder

    Tom
    #3278681, posted on January 2, 2020 at 7:02 pm.
    The Australian media’s 24/7 Trump hatred pales by comparison.

    It’s become routine in the Australian media to include the descriptor “Bizarre” in just about any headline about Trump. His greatest successes such as lowest unemployment for black Americans ever, or swift responses to an emerging crisis, like the recent attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad are considered unusual or “bizarre” by Australian MSM. They embarrass themselves.

  8. Crossie

    Rove has not been right about anything since W’s second election win. The second term could have been used much more productively than going against the voters who just gave you a win by trying to dilute their wages by proposing to legalise all illegal immigrants.

  9. Crossie

    Bruce of Newcastle
    #3278678, posted on January 2, 2020 at 6:59 pm
    Biden would be unelectable if the MSM ever showed the videos of him groping women in front of everyone. What woman would vote for him?

    Then there’s the slowly emerging story of what he and his son got up to in Ukraine and other countries.

    MSM can do their damnedest but Trump can play dirty if needs be, and he has done it to Hillary when he brought Bill Clinton’s rape accusers to one of the debates. He can do the same to Biden by simply bringing up those issues in the debates.

  10. herodotus

    the American news media has become a department of the Democratic Party
    That’s just the American version. Same throughout the western democracies and has the same deleterious effect on all of them – including us.

  11. Visions

    I’ve got republican friends and one high up and she says Trump wins no matter who the democrats put up and republicans regain the house and retain the senate.
    There are 2 states democrats won last time that are in play and Trump is looking good – in ll likelihood trump will increase electoral collage votes (but will lose the popular vote due to California and New York).

  12. HP

    If Biden does not get to the Democrat convention with a clear majority, he’s already damaged goods. He will very likely not get that clear majority because the sum of the left wing-nut support exceeds his own. That means infighting for the next 6-7 months, depleting money and wasting time.

    Besides, the man is old. He’s got health problems and he puts his foot in his mouth. His son is a real liability. But beyond that, Biden has been passed over 2 times already because there were better candidates. And in the meantime he has not aged like wine.

    If Biden has any chance, then please explain how he’s better now than he was when he did not get the nomination those 2 times. Or explain how it is that he’s got a better shot this time than Hillary in 2016. (Even Bernie is still there…)

    And on the other side of the ledger: Did Trump improve his chances for 2020 as compared to 2016? How many on his own side were reluctant to vote for Trump in 2016 because they did not think he was a conservative? Since then the economy has taken off after the Trump tax cuts and we had the Trump the Supreme Court picks. I’d say those who were hesitant to vote for Trump then would more than convinced now. Moreover, remember all the infighting that took place when Trump destroyed 1 after the other GOP candidate during the primaries? So much so that Ted Cruz could not deliver a proper endorsement speech at the convention and the Bushes could not even confirm they voted for him. It was a divided party in the lead up to the 2016 election. Trump does not have these issues in 2020. His approval ratings among Republicans is soaring. He can just focus on the job and hammer Dems while they have to go after each other all the way until July.

    Nah, the media will try to calm themselves by reporting that Biden can win this. But that is just group therapy going though the stages: they are back at stage 1 – denial.

  13. classical_hero

    Trump could challenge the win that Reagan had in his second term. It’s unlikely he’ll win the bluest states, but most others he should win.

  14. Republicans keep the Senate and Democrats the house, both with smaller majorities.

    Sounds about right.

    Not even close.
    In 2016, Trump didn’t have 95% support among Republicans. He does now and has done so consistently. THEY ARE RUSTED ON just like in 1984.
    In 2016, Trump didn’t have 90% support among the military (due to fears spread by MSM that he’d be trigger happy with the nuclear codes). He does now and THEY ARE RUSTED ON.
    In 206, Trump didn’t have 30%+ support among the blacks and 45%+ support among the hispanics. He does now and growing.

    Trump will win easily (at least 326 college votes) and regain the house.

  15. flyingduk

    Trump will win easily unless they assassinate him first, same as 2016. I will be putting money on it, but wont be getting as good as the 6:1 on offer last time.

  16. PB

    Should get an opinion form Martin Bormann next.

  17. Always with the juice with you, PB.

    What did the orange man do to you so you always blame the juice?

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