Jo Nova on trouble in the solar paradise and megafires. And Don Aitkin

Maybe there is some justice in the world after all. Solar no longer a licence to steal money.

Almost all the research and info in this came from Allan O’Neill at WattClarity. In a nutshell, solar isn’t profitable even in Queesland because the lines are long, transmission loses are large, the electricity comes when customers don’t need it, and the government keeps insisting the solar farms pay for “grid stability” (FCAS) because the grid needs it, and solar doesn’t supply it.

And bitter truths about the big bushfires. This brings to mind a story told very briefly in the chapter on forest management in the book that reviewed Green policies some years ago.

Ten times the fuel means 100 times the intensity

Photo Fire in Hay AustraliaHardly anyone is talking about these numbers yet they show just how far beyond our control the pyroconvective firestorms are and why we need to be so much smarter at preventing them. They also show how irrelevant temperatures onsite are, compared to fuel load and wind speed.

Controllable fires are 3MW per meter, but we now have loads of 70MW/m

Not only are these fires obscenely, catastrophically intense, it doesn’t matter how much fire fighting equipment we buy, how many dams we empty, they are a man-made disaster, and we’ve known for years how to prevent them. (Some would say, thousands of years). The message in here is that cool controllable burns are tiny, less damaging, and far less intense. The pyroconvective monsters are totally different creatures.

Re Paul Kelly who got a mention in the comments, a typical scientific illiterate. He got caned in the comments because the people who comment there are much like Cat readers in their understanding and opinions.

Don Aitkin, national treasure, writes his last post on climate matters for a while.

I knew Bob Carter well, because he had been an outspoken (and highly successful) scientist who had served on the Australian Research Grants Committee when I was its chair. He got me to read other articles, from both sides of the domain. I became increasingly more sceptical myself. The data were rubbery, the arguments too confident. The media loved the scary stories, which encouraged more and more assertions. In 2008 I gave a public presentation of my views to the Royal Australian Institute of Planning, of which I was an honorary Fellow, and that led to my becoming a public figure in the debate.

With a comment from Professor Professor John  Quiggin.

You have done great harm to humanity and Australia, in the service of your own self-conceit. As the country burns, you should consider whether you want to salvage your reputation while you still have time.

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27 Responses to Jo Nova on trouble in the solar paradise and megafires. And Don Aitkin

  1. herodotus

    Mainstream media is really struggling with all these awful truths. They prefer to stay with the fantasy that there’s a big thermostat.
    Paul Kelly still getting splinters from fence sitting, but essentially coming down on alarmist side in The Oz and being caned for it in comments.

  2. Rafe Champion

    Like every other journalist (any exceptions?) Paul Kelly is scientifically illiterate and can’t or won’t take the trouble to notice that the best climate scientists and probably the great majority are not alarmed. Some deception is required for a comfortable life and it is not uncommon for warmist sentiments to be found in the abstract of a paper where the contents give no reason for alarm. That way the paper is waved through by lazy editors and reviewers and the five or six people in the world who are really interested can read the paper and maybe learn some small thing.

  3. Forest Stylist

    Recent Kangaroo Island fires shows how highly flammable native vegetation acts like a fuse line when it conveyed the fire rapidly throughout the western half of the island.
    Where the fire encountered pasture (usually bare paddocks) or plantation it often diminished in intensity . Interestingly as the fire entered some plantations it seemed to change from an intense crown fire in the adjoining native scrub to a ground fire in the plantation.
    Many houses that were burnt adjoined the corridors of native scrub that line some of the main roads – if the house was 100m+ in the paddock it was usually unburnt.

  4. Cui Bono

    NASA observes the world is greening due to increased CO2. This may be a good thing but it may also make the fuel reduction task more difficult?

  5. herodotus

    Fuel reduction is made more difficult by regulations, not by CO2.

  6. Beachcomber

    Rafe Champion at 5:57 pm

    OK. The establishment climate “scientists” include the “warmist sentiments” so that they can keep their keep their well-paid sinecures and associated research funding. That is, they are active and willing participants in producing Green Marxist misinformation and agitprop for the Climate Cult.

    There is nothing redeeming about what they do. The content of their publications almost always contains nothing of any scientific value or probity.

  7. Rafe Champion

    Yes Judith Curry gave up her academic position, possibly head of department, I suspect she could not bear to prepare students for a career where they would not be able to practice the science and the critical methods that she wanted to teach them.

  8. Squirrel

    “Ten times the fuel means 100 times the intensity”

    Some very encouraging words on fuel loads from the PM at the National Press Club today – great to see the continued push back against those who are obsessed about Australia’s carbon emissions and who want to use climate change as an excuse for doing far too little about fuel loads.

  9. Boambee John

    Squirrel

    Some very encouraging words on fuel loads from the PM at the National Press Club today –

    What did he say? The (useless) TV news was all about journos incestuously pursuing sports rorts, while actively ignoring the actual content of the speech.

  10. Kneel

    “Yes Judith Curry gave up her academic position, possibly head of department…”

    She was Head of Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, IIRC.
    Branded “Denier” for daring to question the orthodoxy and tell the truth about how shaky it all is.
    Clearly the devil, as she now earns a crust selling medium and long range weather forecasts.
    Selling! Clearly just another know-nothing capitalist pig that only cares about money, and will gladly help kill her own grandkids just to pay the electricity bill!
    </sarc>

  11. Leo G

    You have done great harm to humanity and Australia, in the service of your own self-conceit. As the country burns, you should consider whether you want to salvage your reputation while you still have time.

    Quiggin implies that acting to maintain an excessively high opinion of oneself is harmful to humanity … and he ought to know.

  12. Entropy

    I do not respect the opinion of John Quiggan.

    Smite me Doonlord if you dare!

  13. min

    As a result of the lack of hazard reduction have the fuel load s got to the amount where hazard reduction cannot be done? That is to burn off would create too hot a temperature. to be managed .

  14. Lazlo

    Judith Curry was Head of Department at Georgia Tech, a very respected institution, no nonsense. Then she retired.

  15. Leo G

    As a result of the lack of hazard reduction have the fuel loads got to the amount where hazard reduction cannot be done?

    Absolute humidity and evaporation rates from soil surfaces and plant canopies are concomitant factors. Hazard reduction burning is best undertaken when most of the potential fuel won’t ignite and fires are likely to self extinguish.

  16. Bruce of Newcastle

    When the climate scam finally collapses like that big solar PV ponzi has, Prof. Quiggin should be tattooed with those uncharitable and quite nasty words.

  17. fred

    Eucalyptus trees are very dangerous and they have dominated the Australian bush. They like no other and thrives on fire and require careful management. Aboriginal burning encouraged eucalyptus species at the detriment of other trees. We will need to have to replant much of our bush. Bob Carr and his ilk has a lot to answer for.

  18. Cui Bono

    Greens don’t want to talk about the greening of the world. Wonder why?
    Their opponents should talk about it.
    The fire reduction task is bigger through this greening which becomes browning in summer and drought.
    Ignore at your peril.

  19. Quiggin doesnt know his arse from ihis elbow regarding the total disaster of public land management in this country. If Quiggin wasnt so up himself he would take a long hard look at the mess sucessive state goverments across the country, starting especially from the 70s, have made locking up vaste areas of public land and expecting it to all manage itself. Its not climate change thats just a cope out to hide the pure and unadulterate mismanagement by politicians and their complicit public servants.

  20. It was Dr Richard Lindzen who best summed up the lack of science in the arguments of the self-serving warmist scamsters – “Believing CO2 is the planets climate control knob is pretty close to believing in magic”

  21. Mark M

    PM Scott Morrison, Address, National Press Club, 29-01-2020: 

    “If we get this right as I believe we will, we will be well on our way to lower cost, more reliable and lower emissions energy. Isn’t that what it’s supposed to be about?”

    https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2020/01/29/address-national-press-club

    Uhm, no. 
    Preventing doomsday global warming is “what it is all about.”

    “We are world leaders in renewable energy. More than 2.2 million Australian’s have rooftop solar panels – the highest uptake in the world.”

    … yet the bushfires still happened.

    Time to put up or shut up, PM.

    How many more Australians must install how many more solar panels before Australians prevent their first bushfire?

    That is the point of it all.

  22. Mark M

    Quiggin the climate zombie has a doomsday piece in the conversion:

    Humans are good at thinking their way out of problems – but climate change is outfoxing us –

    Wine woes

    “For Australia, the first obvious tipping point may come in agriculture.
    Take wine grapes.”

    https://theconversation.com/humans-are-good-at-thinking-their-way-out-of-problems-but-climate-change-is-outfoxing-us-129987

    Wait. What?

    Record-breaking cold snap wipes out vineyards in WA’s south

    The acclaimed Frankland River wine region, 120 kilometres north-west of Albany, was worst hit by record-low temperatures for November, which swept across the region earlier this week.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-11-10/frost-devastates-vineyards-in-frankland-river-wine-region/10483016

    2018 ‘a cracker of a year’ for South Australian wine

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-04-11/2018-cracker-year-for-south-australian-wine/9639058

  23. Tim Neilson

    Quiggin doesnt know his arse from ihis elbow regarding the total disaster of public land management in this country.

    True, but you could have just put a full stop after “elbow”.

    Quiggin is an Olympic gold medal winning world record breaking wrongologist. Every time, every topic. Without fail.

  24. Rafe Champion

    “We are world leaders in renewable energy. More than 2.2 million Australian’s have rooftop solar panels – the highest uptake in the world.”

    We are the crash dummies, although the Germans led the way with California trying hard. Spain and Portugal were right up there a few years ago, not so much said about them now, I wonder why?

  25. Leo G

    “We are world leaders in renewable energy. More than 2.2 million Australian’s have rooftop solar panels – the highest uptake in the world.”

    I doubt that Australia has the highest uptake, except perhaps in per capita terms.

  26. Rayvic

    More economics/financial journos appear to be seduced by climate change hysteria.
    If only they would take the time to read up on our history of serious bushfires.

  27. Bad Samaritan

    Rayvic (12.15am) You reckon this would make a difference? Really? It’s like claiming that these scammers ringing old codgers to “fix their computers” should read up on scammers ripping off old codgers to understand how naughty they are. No.

    Journalists are almost certainly part of the scam. Maybe they are invested in it, or have friends and family who are….or maybe paid, but more likely wined and dined by affable PR people. This is how motoring journos are helped to write good stuff about dud cars, so why would solar-spruiking media people be different.

    We already know when covering politics that most journalists are thoroughly corrupt “these days”, which tells us that they are thoroughly corrupt in most all ways. For scams to succeed you need scammers; pretty simple.

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