2pm Friday update. Wind is currently delivering 2.44% of demand across the SE, operating just under 10% of plated capacity. In SA it is only blowing 6% of installed capacity but that provides about half their demand with some 0.02GW (not a screen shot) left over to prop up NSW and Victoria. Not counting Rooftop Solar that is contributing 6GW across the whole SE Aust system.
On Tuesday 25 the wind dropped to a very low point across SE Australia and this demonstrated the “choke point” when parts of the grid will die unless sources other than wind can provide practically 100% of demand. South Australia would have gone black without coal fired power from Queensland via NSW. Below is the picture across the whole of SE Australia. Wind is the blue band at the top, just to confuse the issue hydro is green unlike the other AEMO display that I usually use where the hydro is blue and the band above it is wind in green. The slider is set at 11am because that was the lowest point of the wind supply that day.
Wind did not fit into the screen shot. It was 3% from 9 am to 11am and gradually increased to 5% at 6 and 5.5% at 6.30. Field Solar was 7% for most of the day, down to 3% at 6pm shortly before sunset. Rooftop solar is not recorded on this display, the other display indicates that Rooftop pv provides about as much as brown coal between 10am and pre-dinner drinks in the evening.
Below is the picture for South Australia, the wind superpower of the nation. Wind provided 8% of the local mix from 9am to 11am and rose to peak at 38% at 6pm. For much of the day SA would have topped up with coal power from the east because the demand would have been much the same from 11 to 6 but I don’t have a picture of the Dispatch Overview to know how much was coming and going. The hydrocarbon Gas provided 70% of the local mix at 11am and declined until dinner time with the sun shining and the wind rising, then it peaked over 80% in the evening when the sun went down and the wind faded. Not a great day for RE in the RE state!
In Queensland Wind contributed 1% all day and field solar 8%.
In Victoria Wind provided 7% all day and field solar 4%.
In Tasmania that day Hydro was 94%, Natural Gas 4% and Wind 2%.
The point of the story is that on that day the wind contributed next to nothing across the SE, from 3% in the morning to peak at 5.5% as the sun was setting. Field solar did little better with 7% during the hours of full sunlight.
Look at the situation without Liddell. You might say that the 10% from field solar and the wind is helpful but it was not necessary because the coal stations could have provided if black coal ran at full capacity capacity. At 6.30 in the evening it was delivering 13.9GW and it can go up to 16GW. It would be a stretch to make up the difference without 1.7GW from Liddell.
Morning survey. At 8am Friday morning Sydney time Qld, NSW and Tas are producing more power then they need while SA is slightly in deficit and Victoria is down 0.7GW. This picture is not a screen shot.
Approaching 10 in Sydney wind is down to 4%.