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Guest post: Craig Thomson

82 comments

Why do you persecute me? I am an honest man. I have been betrayed. My lovely family has been hounded by an evil media led by Andrew Bolt and David Penberthy. I have been judged by you all here at Catallaxy

Yet I am an honest man and an innocent man. I could never tell a lie.

I feel angry and betrayed. But I will prevail.

You see, my former friend, Michael Williamson, said to me in 2007

Craig, you will be the first HSU prime minister

Now even Williamson has betrayed me.

I have never procured services from a prostitution agency. I am shocked and outraged by such scurrilous accusations.

I have worked 24/7 in the interests of HSU members and now represent those members and my electorate of Dobell in Parliament. Ever cent of their money has been scrupulously managed and deployed in their interests.

While I have been betrayed, I will never betray my beloved HSU members.

I will prevail, and reach my destiny as prime minister! But I will not cut down those who have betrayed me; in my benevolence I shall forgive them one and all.

Yes, my HSU family, I will soon be representing your interests as prime minister! What a glorious day that will be, when I take the Oath of office of prime minister of Australia and my enemies come begging forgiveness. I will let them squirm for a while, and then my munificence will be seen by all.

I am an honest man.

And I will be a great prime minister! One who will bring this country together and lead the people to utopia.

That is my destiny, and I accept my present trials. For great men must rise above the petty squabbles and show compassion, benevolence and mercy.

I will be prefect of the morals and father of the fatherland.

Written by Samuel J

May 21st, 2012 at 5:16 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Craig Thomson (LXIX) UPDATED

467 comments

UPDATE 21/5

Now Craig Thomson wants the Victorian Police to release video footage from the brothels he is alleged to have visited.

Hang on a minute: is this the same Craig Thomson who has so far refused to speak with the Police despite repeated requests from the Police?

Bill Shorten claims that the behaviour evident in the HSU is not typical of the Union movement generally. He would say that, wouldn’t he? But the fact that disgraced HSU general secretary, Michael Williamson, was President of the ALP suggests that the HSU influence has spread wide.

Do we really believe that Williamson and Thomson are the only bad apples in the Union nest? Personally I don’t find that credible. It seems to me that the behaviour evident by Williamson and Thomson was expected: people generally behave according to an organisation’s norms. It comes back to the culture of entitlement: people such as Slipper, Thomson and Williamson think they are worth more than their salary and justify in their own minds the scrounging of extra resources to ‘top up’ their salaries. We can observe this elsewhere when (say) politicians and public servants abuse the travel allowance system. And other people who sign off on these claims (or don’t investigate them properly) turn a blind eye – the behaviour becomes entrenched and not considered illegal or immoral.

The best outcome would be total transparency. The books of all Unions should be laid bare for members and the public to see what happens behind closed doors. If a Union leader has nothing to hide, he or she should not object to increased transparency.

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Written by Samuel J

May 21st, 2012 at 1:00 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Sejanus

35 comments

Ahead of the much anticipated speech by Craig Thomson to the House of Representatives, I was reminded of this passage in I Claudius by Robert Graves, referring to Sejanus

Sejanus was a liar but so fine a general of lies that he knew how to marshal them into an alert and disciplined formation.

Here are some other excellent quotes about lying

Frederich Nietzsche

I’m not upset that you lied to me, I’m upset that from now on I can’t believe you.

George Washington

It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.

Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged)

People think that a liar gains a victory over his victim. What I’ve learned is that a lie is an act of self-abdication, because one surrenders one’s reality to the person to whom one lies, making that person one’s master, condemning oneself from then on to faking the sort of reality that person’s view requires to be faked…The man who lies to the world, is the world’s slave from then on…There are no white lies, there is only the blackest of destruction, and a white lie is the blackest of all.

Napoleon Bonaparte

History is a set of lies agreed upon.

Jarod Kintz

She says he says, but she could be lying to me, and he could be lying to her, so I can’t believe her, even if I could believe her.

Leo Tolstoy (Anna Karenina)

Anything is better than lies and deceit!

Adrienne Rich

Lying is done with words, and also with silence.

Winston Churchill

Are you insinuating that I am a purveyor of terminological inexactitudes?

Richard Armour

Politics, it seems to me, for years, or all too long, has been concerned with right or left instead of right or wrong.

Written by Samuel J

May 20th, 2012 at 9:34 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Europe’s pro-growth policies

110 comments

What a relief. We now discover that Obama is siding with new French President Hollande to promote pro-growth policies in Europe. Let me suggest a few for France:

  • increase the retirement age to 67 (in line with Germany)
  • deregulate the labour market, bringing in US-style labour market laws and reduce labour on-costs. This will allow firms to flexibly hire and fire employees
  • reduce the size of the public sector and amalgamate a couple of levels of government
  • reduce public sector salaries so that university graduates have an incentive to join the private sector, rather than favouring a public sector career
  • reduce the burden of regulation in starting and closing a business
  • reduce tenant’s rights so that landlords have an incentive to rent their apartments rather than leaving them vacant (about 60% of apartments in Paris are vacant because of the difficulty in evicting tenants)
  • adopt English as the official language

There are many more things that could be done to promote growth, but this list is a good start. What suggestions do you have?

Written by Samuel J

May 19th, 2012 at 7:02 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Budget pictorial

87 comments

Following from my earlier post, here is a graphical representation of the Government’s fiscal strategy. It shows clearly that the Budget increased spending both in 2012-13 and across the four year forecast period.

Here is the chart for all of the Government policy decisions since elected in November 2007

Written by Samuel J

May 18th, 2012 at 6:04 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Fiscal policy

15 comments

From Ken Henry’s speech 2 October 2003:

The application of fiscal policy to short-term counter cyclical targets is subject to considerable recognition lags, implementation lags and transmission (or response) lags. While monetary policy is also subject to recognition lags, it involves less risk as the stance of monetary policy can be adjusted (if necessary reversed) rapidly if a misplaced judgement is made.

Whereas a change in the stance of monetary policy can be implemented almost instantly, the implementation of a fiscal response will be delayed by the time it takes to design an effective intervention, the time it takes to secure parliamentary passage and the time it takes to put in place the administrative apparatus required to implement the intervention. The implementation lags associated with a fiscal intervention can be so large that the intervention has a pro-cyclical impact.

Finally, the transmission lags associated with fiscal policy can be highly uncertain. Then there are matters of effectiveness to be considered. To what extent might a fiscal intervention be thwarted by Ricardian equivalence, the permanent income hypothesis or import leakages? All of the lags and questions of effectiveness pose real challenges for the counter-cyclical use of fiscal policy, but they do not rule out such use. However, they may, in many circumstances, rule out reliance on the finetuning of fiscal policy to support a particular monetary stance.

From Ken Henry’s speech to staff, April 2007

Any government intervention will shift resources, including jobs, from one activity to another and impose a deadweight loss of efficiency on the economy. …

The next time any of you get an opportunity to write a coordination comment on a Cabinet submission that proposes a taxpayer-funded handout for some stunning new investment proposition – and I predict that some of you won’t have to wait very long for such an opportunity – I suggest you draw attention to the submission’s failure to identify the businesses that will lose labour, and be forced to reduce output, if the proposal is agreed to. I won’t suggest that you go so far as to recommend that the sponsoring minister be required to write to the chief executives of each of those businesses explaining why it is in the national interest that their operations contract. In present fiscal circumstances, there is a temptation to think that all problems can be solved by government spending. Such spending adds to aggregate demand, of course. In the environment in which we have been developing policy advice for the past 30 years or so, while we have worried about the efficiency of government spending and the macroeconomic impact of the consequent fiscal stimulus, we have probably not been as concerned about the possibility of diverting resources from more to less productive areas.

Ken Henry on the 7.30 Report, May 2012

If it’s fiscal stimulus the most important thing is to get the money out the door. . . . Whether the money is in some sense wasted . . . from a macroeconomic perspective it’s very much second order, maybe even third order.

So there you have it:

  • activist fiscal policy is subject to lags and can prove counterproductive – effectively there are considerable risks with getting the timing and magnitude right
  • such policies almost certainly create deadweight loss and divert resources to less productive areas
  • but the quality of spending is a third order issue.

Did the Treasury submission on the fiscal stimulus (if such a beast existed) identify which businesses “will lose labour …”?

Written by Samuel J

May 17th, 2012 at 11:00 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

The Influence of Wealth in Imperial Rome

44 comments

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose …

From chapter 1 of a book by William Stearns Davis (1910)

Of the year 33 A.D. it may possibly have been recorded in the diaries of certain Roman business men, that there was a disturbance in the remote province of Judaea a tumult quickly quelled by the energy of his excellency Pontius Pilate, the governor, who seized and crucified one Christus, the chief malcontent, and two bandits, his accomplices. It is more probable, however, that they only remembered this year as marking one of the severest panics which ever shook the foundations of Roman credit.

As with most panics, the causes of this were not obvious. About a year before, the firm of Seuthes & Son of Alexandria, lost three richly laden spice ships on the Red Sea in a hurricane. Their ventures in the Ethiopian caravan trade also were unprofitable, ostrich feathers and ivory having lately fallen in value. It soon began to be rumored that they might be obliged to suspend. A little later the well known purple house of Malchus & Company (centered at Tyre, but with factories at Antioch and Ephesus) suddenly became bankrupt; a strike among their Phoenician workmen, and the embezzlements of a trusted freedman manager being the direct causes of the disaster. Presently it became evident that the great Roman banking house of Quintus Maximus & Lucius Vibo had loaned largely to both Seuthes and Malchus. The depositors, fearing for their money, commenced a run on the bank, and distrust spread because men, experienced on the Via Sacra (the first century Wall Street), said that the still larger house of the Brothers Pettius was also involved with Maximus & Vibo. The two threatened establishments might still have escaped disaster had they been able to realize on their other securities. Unfortunately the Pettii had placed much of their depositors’ capital in loans among the noblemen of the Belgae in North Gaul. In quiet times such investments commanded very profitable interest; but an outbreak among that semi-civilized people caused the government to decree a temporary suspension of processes for debt. The Pettii were therefore left with inadequate resources. Maximus & Vibo closed their doors first; but that same afternoon the Pettii did likewise. Grave rumors obtained that, owing to the interlacing of credits, many other banks were affected. Still the crisis might have been localized, had not a new and more serious factor been introduced.

In a laudable desire to support the Italian agricultural interest then in a most declining way the Senate, with the assent of Tiberius, the emperor, had ordered one third of every senator’s fortune to be invested in lands within Italy. Failure to comply with the ordinance invited prosecution and heavy penalties. The time allowed for readjustment had almost expired, when many rich senators awoke to the fact that they had not made the required relocation of their fortunes. To find capital to buy land, it was necessary for them to call in all their private loans and deposits at the bankers. Publius Spinther, a wealthy nobleman, particularly was obliged to notify Balbus & Ollius, his bankers, that they must find the 30,000,000 sesterces he had deposited with them two years before. Two days later Balbus & Ollius had closed their doors, and their bankruptcy was being entered before the praetor. The same day a notice in the Ada Diurna, the official gazette posted daily in the Forum, told how the great Corinthian bank of Leucippus’ Sons had gone into insolvency. A few days later it was heard that a strong banking house in Carthage had suspended. After this all the surviving banks on the Via Sacra announced that they must have timely notice before paying their depositors. The safe arrival of the corn fleet from Alexandria caused the situation at the capital to brighten temporarily; but immediately afterward came news that two banks in Lyons were “rearranging their accounts,” as the euphemism ran; likewise another in Byzantium. From the provincial towns of Italy and the farming districts, where creditors had long allowed their loans to run at profitable interest, but were now suddenly calling in their principals, came cries of keen distress and tidings of bankruptcy after bankruptcy. After this nothing seemed able to check the panic at Rome. One bank closed after another. The legal 12% rate of interest was set at nought by any man lucky enough to possess ready money. The praetor’s court was crowded with creditors demanding the auctioning of the debtor’s houses, slaves, warehouse stock, or furniture. The auctions themselves were thinly attended, for who could buy? Valuable villas and racing studs were knocked down for trifles. Caught in the disaster, many men of excellent credit and seemingly ample fortune were reduced to beggary. The calamity seemed spreading over the Empire, and threatening a stoppage of all commerce and industry, when Gracchus, the praetor, before whom the majority of the cases in bankruptcy came, at his wits’ end to decide between the hosts of desperate debtors and equally desperate creditors, resorted to the Senate-house; whence, after a hurried debate, the Conscript Fathers dispatched a fast messenger with a full statement of the danger to their lord and master Tiberius, in his retreat at Capri.

While the Caesar’s reply was awaited, the business world of the capital held its breath. Four days after the dispatch from the Senate, an imperial courier came pricking back from Campania. The Senate assembled in the Curia with incredible celerity. A vast throng slaves and millionaires elbowing together filled the Forum outside, while the Emperor’s letter was read, first to the Senate, then from the open Rostrum to the waiting people. Tiberius had solved the problem with his usual calm, good sense. The obnoxious decrees were for the time to be suspended; 100,000,000 ses. were to be taken from the imperial treasury and distributed among reliable bankers, to be loaned to the neediest debtors; no interest to be collected for three years; but security was to be offered of double value in real property. The law being relaxed, and the most pressing cases cared for by the government loan, private lenders began. to take courage and offer money at reasonable rates. Dispatches from Alexandria, Carthage and Corinth indicated that the panic had been stayed in those financial centers. The moneyed world of the Via Sacra began to resume its wonted aspect. A few banking houses and individuals never recovered from their losses, but the majority escaped permanent suspension and so the panic of the “Consulship of Galba and Sulla,” i.e. of 33 A.D., passed into half-forgotten history.

Such a little expanded from Tacitus and Suetonius is the tale of the great panic under the third Caesar. A narrative like this would have no verisimilitude unless placed in a society extending over seas and continents, with a great internal and foreign commerce, rapid means of communication, complex and vast credit transactions, an elaborate system of banking; in other words, with conditions not unlike many of those of the twentieth century. Great was the Roman Empire in its military glory, its system of law and administration, its preservation of the artistic and intellectual heritage from Greece, its elimination of clan patriotism and local prejudices but it was also great, in that it fostered the development of an economic life such as has not come again to the world until very recent times. It is of this Roman commerce, communication, banking, credit, and of a society largely founded on such a “money basis,” that we propose to write.

Written by Samuel J

May 15th, 2012 at 4:21 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Stalin

70 comments

This is the portrait of Stalin by Picasso published in the French literary (and Communist) newspaper Les Lettres françaises after Stalin’s death was announced on 7 March 1953. The portrait became controversial, as noted in Antony Beevor’s book Paris After the Liberation. From pages 377 and 378 of the revised (2004) Penguin edition:

When Stalin’s death was announced on Friday, 7 March 1953, [Louis] Aragon called in Pierre Daix and rattled off a shopping list of features to honour Stalin in a special issue of Les Lettres françaises — ‘an article by Joliot, one by me, an article by Courtade, another by Sadoul, one by you. We must have something by Picasso.’

Since Picasso had always refused to do a portrait of Stalin from a photograph, Daix sent a telegram to him at Vallauris saying, ‘Do whatever you want’, and signed it ‘Aragon’. Picasso’s drawing of Stalin, which depicted him as a curiously open-eyed young man, arrived at the very moment Les Lettres françaises went to press. Daix took the picture in to Aragon. He admired it and said that the party would appreciate the gesture. While it was being set into the front page, office boys and typists crowded round the picture. Everyone thought it ‘worthy of Stalin’. Daix was overjoyed to be the one who had commissioned Picasso’s first portrait of the Soviet leader and rushed it down to the printers. But a few hours later, when the edition had been run off, the mood in the building had completely changed to one of fear. Journalists from [the Communist newspaper] L’Humanité, passing by, spotted the drawing and cried out that it was unthinkable that any Communist publication should consider printing such a representation of ‘le Grand Staline’.

Pierre Daix promptly rang Aragon at his apartment; Elsa Triolet answered. She told him angrily that he was mad to have even thought of asking Picasso for such a drawing.

‘But really, Elsa,’ Daix broke in, ‘Stalin isn’t God the Father!’

‘Yes, he is, Pierre. Nobody’s going to reflect much about what this drawing of Picasso signifies. He hasn’t even deformed Stalin’s face. He’s even respected it. But he has dared to touch it. He has actually dared, Pierre, do you understand?’

Aragon rose to the occasion and took full responsibility upon himself. It was almost as if somebody had to face a court martial for treason. But for the staff of Les Lettres françaises, the worst was still to come. Daix found secretaries in tears from the insults screamed down the telephone at them by loyal Communists protesting at the sacrilege. Some even said that it portrayed Stalin as cruel and Asiatic, which was what his enemies wanted.

Many of the people mentioned were not bad. Misguided, yes, but not evil. Yet they worshipped one of the great tyrants in history. Unlike their comrades living in the Soviet Union, the Communists living in France did not have the apparatus of the State pressing them into conforming to the will and worship of Stalin. Yet they did — probably out of a combination of peer pressure and false idealism.

This reminds me of today’s proponents of extreme action on anthropogenic climate change. I think many are well meaning, but terribly misguided. Like a pack, they pounce on anyone who dares utter a heresy. Some are believers; some are opportunists — there are numerous rent-seeking opportunities in the fight against climate change.

Hopefully the movement will collapse, as did support for Stalin a few years after his demise.

Written by Samuel J

May 14th, 2012 at 11:35 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Adrian Pagan and David Gruen

24 comments

An interesting exchange has occurred between Treasury deputy secretary David Gruen and economist Adrian Pagan.

Pagan says that the Budget forecasts are not credible. Gruen has reacted strongly, saying

We didn’t make it up. The idea that it is in some way comparable to what Greece has been up to I find deeply offensive. You shouldn’t make comments like that.

Gruen demonstrates both excessive sensitivity and a misunderstanding of the Budget. In fact the Budget is the responsibility of the Government and  the Treasury is required to produce the forecasts that the Government (and Treasurer) demands.

Treasury is not an independent agency, it is an arm of the Government. It operates under the instructions of the Government and it provides recommended forecasts to the Government, which is free to publish whatever it sees fit – either accepting or changing the recommended forecasts.

I think that the Budget forecasts are not credible. The previous forecasts have consistently overestimated revenue and underestimated expenditure. I think that the present forecasts repeat this pattern.

Pagan is right, Gruen is wrong. But Gruen should not be so sensitive – we are not accusing him of manipulating the forecasts; instead we accuse the Treasurer of doing so. Gruen is a dedicated servant of the Treasurer (as he should be), following his instructions to the letter. This is the responsibility of the ethical public servant: to provide robust advice to the Government, but to faithfully implement the Government’s decisions.

Wayne Swan has never, and will never deliver a budget surplus. Under Wayne Swan’s stewardship, the Treasury has been depleted faster than any time in history. Swan’s profligacy has destroyed Australia’s natural advantages, including its strong fiscal position. He has exposed Australia to excessive risk to foreign contagion.

I expect that David Gruen has provided sound advice to the Treasurer, which has been ignored. If so, Gruen has acted as a responsible public servant who serves the government of the day faithfully.

Written by Samuel J

May 12th, 2012 at 6:39 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Dick Smith – the crony capitalist

117 comments

Dick Smith wants to be protected. Finding that Dick Smith Foods is uncompetitive, Smith wants the Government to offer his firm protection against imports.

Meanwhile we find that Australians are paying too much for technology and motor vehicles. This is my experience too – Australians consistently pay a higher price for many goods and services compared with comparable countries. Good on Steve Wozniak for pointing this out.

We need more competition in Australia, not less. We need more people to buy through the internet, sourcing directly from overseas. And we need further microeconomic reforms to increase competition and reduce the barriers to trade.

Dick Smith made his fortune as a capitalist. It is a great irony that he now pushes for population control and protectionism.

If Smith wants the full autarky experience, he could move to North Korea. I’m sure his political and economic views would be welcomed by Kim-Jong-Un.

Written by Samuel J

May 11th, 2012 at 5:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized