The long-forgotten supply side needs to be recalled

When I was the Chief Economist of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, this is what you never saw: Business Calls for Stimulus Spark. In normal English, this says, “Business Calls for More Money from Taxpayers”. There may be no better way to subvert an economy than through public spending. Modern macro is an economic death cult. It’s now more than a decade since the stimulus programs that followed the GFC were introduced, and still our economies remain stalled and stagnant. So let me take you to the words of Australia’s greatest Treasurer:

Mr Costello said fiscal and monetary policy had run out of puff and supply-side reforms such as deregulation were now the key to improving efficiency and ­restoring growth, as retailers pushed for a fresh look at lowering the company tax rate.

Despite the IMF again slashing its growth forecast for Australia from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent — well below the government’s 2.25 per cent forecast — Mr Costello said he did not agree with the school of thought that it was “all doom and gloom out there”.

“We need to turn to another arm of policy which has been long forgotten and that’s the supply side,” he told a Citi investor conference in Sydney.

“After 10 years of deficits and 28 years of continuous growth, we could really get a boost by dealing with some of the imbalances that have built up in the economy.”

While the Morrison government has been under pressure to ditch its commitment to a budget surplus and pump-prime the economy by going into deficit, Mr Costello said he did not believe this held much appeal.

Remember the Costello approach? Cuts to public spending, continuous years of surplus and zero public debt. Worked like a charm. Just let me take you back to my days in ACCI. One of the questions I would ask the entrepreneurs who used to wander through our office is whether they had expansion plans sitting in their drawers that they would put into place if they had the extra revenue. And the universal answer was yes. The American economy has possibly never been as robust as it is today, and all of the efforts have been made on the supply side. That’s where the action is. Public spending as an economic stimulus is a dead end.

Posted in Classical Economics, Economics and economy, Federal Politics, Uncategorized | 21 Comments

Bammy, how I love ya, how I love ya …

Obama endorses Trudeau.

Posted in American politics | 35 Comments

Mises v Marx

Posted in Economics and economy | 7 Comments

Replying to the con-servationists

On the same day that Greta Thunberg harangued the UN about her fears of a climate emergency, 500 scientists sent a registered letter to the UN Secretary-General stating that there is no climate emergency and climate policies should be designed to benefit the lives of people. Here are the specific points about climate change highlighted in the letter:

1 Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming.
2. Warming is far slower than predicted.
3. Climate policy relies on inadequate models.
4. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a plant food that is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.
5. Global warming has not increased natural disasters.
6. Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities.
7. There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic.

For more detail, go here.

Of course, if you want to actually make progress against these people, you will need to show how there is more money to be made in opposing the climate agenda than in supporting it.

Posted in Global warming and climate change policy | 34 Comments

Not quite smallpox in the blankets but pretty close

As an Indian, Elizabeth Warren should know better. She and fellow Democrats have endorsed what could be described as epidemiological rape. If you’re not aware of it, libertine boundary pushers now demand the repeal of laws which prohibit the intentional transmission of HIV. Warren was so impressed with their ‘argument’ that she included it in her official campaign platform. “We must also decriminalize HIV transmission,” she insists. Cory Booker and Pete Buttigieg are also in favour. This may be the most perverse illustration yet seen of the Democrats’ reliance for gaseous fuel on any exploitable malice bubbling up from the sewers beneath them. For a political party whose most powerful institutional ally today is Planned Parenthood (the Auschwitz of interest groups), that’s saying something. Ed Condon has written a brilliant essay on the Democrat push for a “woke integralist regime” where all things must conform to what he calls a “magisterial progressivism” enforced by the state. The party’s lunacy on HIV is an example of how far they’re prepared to go.
——
Warren’s ‘reasoning’ is that drugs have now made the disease safer than a MAGA cap. At least “in individuals who adhere to treatment and have suppressed the virus,” she adds by way of waiver. But here’s the con: no HIV-positive person is charged under existing laws anyway unless he knowingly infects an oblivious partner; or unless a disease-free complainant discovers a partner’s HIV status and feels aggrieved – if not assaulted – for not having been informed. After all, nobody gives sexual consent to somebody who may or may not be adhering to treatment. Obviously, such litigants very often have a case. Warren, then, is not merely proposing to repeal an obsolete law. She positively intends to legalise something reckless as part of an ideological war against “the right” (blamed for the ‘stigma’ associated with HIV). “We … must prevent the weaponization of religion to discriminate against or harm LGBTQ+ people,” her manifesto thunders. This is the inverted truth always to be found in woke integralist dogma. Translation: Warren is weaponising homosexuals to discriminate against and harm her enemies. Trouble is, innocent people would pay the price.

Posted in American politics, Ethics and morality | 19 Comments

Tasmanian wowsers mark centenary

A century ago:

In 1919, 20 special deputies called “Sheriffettes” were sworn in to monitor the swimwear of the bathers at Rockaway Beach, Queens, New York. This was the latest salvo in an ongoing battle between women and beach authorities — and not just there.

Yesterday:

Hobart is pushing forward with its plan to become a completely smoke-free city by 2020, with the council adding three new smoke-free areas.

From today, Franklin Square, Legacy Park and University Rose Garden are designated smoke-free areas.

In order to make sure people abide by these new rules, the City of Hobart has employed an anti-smoking officer to crack down on smokers.

The Tobacco Project Officer patrols these smoke-free zones and has the power to issue on the spot fines of $338 to people caught breaking the new laws.

It will come as no surprise that this gauleiter of Gauloise is being enthusiastically pushed by Hobart’s deputy mayor Helen Burnet, a member of the Greens. Truganini, thylacine, tobacco fanciers … What is it about Tasmania and the yearning to exterminate?

Posted in Take Nanny down | 21 Comments

LATE IN THE DAY MAJOR POWER USERS SPEAK UP. When is the official announcement that we have a Third World power system

UPDATE FROM JO NOVA. WE HAVE A THIRD WORLD POWER SYSTEM. AND IT WILL GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER.

Australia’s biggest fruit and vegetable grower, Costa Group, has blasted the “disgraceful” state of the nation’s energy market after fears of summer blackouts forced the company to spend millions of dollars on back-up generators to protect its crops around the country.

Harry Debney, the head of ASX-listed horticulture giant Costa Group, said the company had installed back-up generators to protect crops from a disruption to energy supplies in a number of states.

“It’s a disgraceful situation,” Mr Debney said. “We’re so concerned. There’s a lack of reliability, which is even more important than the cost, because if you’re out of production it just really hurts you very badly.”

His concerns were echoed by ASX-listed Alumina Limited which, along with Alcoa owns the majority of western Victoria’s Portland aluminium smelter, and warned that long-term outages could be damaging. Last week Coca-Cola Amatil boss Alison Watkins likened the situation to one the company would face in developing countries like Papua New Guinea while Bluescope has also raised concerns.

A good old-fashioned Aussie sendup of the angry little girl from Sweden. h/t Frank at the Five Dock Climate Realists.

Alice Springs goes black. A warning for RE enthusiasts. Shit happens!

Cato no longer in the climate science game. The departure of Lindzen and Michaels.

Flashback. The “Right Stuff” team protest the politicization and corruption of science in NASA.

The planet is not in danger of catastrophic man made global warming. Even if we burn all the world’s recoverable fossil fuels it will still only result in a temperature rise of less than 1.2 per cent.

So say The Right Climate Stuff Research Team, a group of retired NASA Apollo scientists and engineers – the men who put Neil Armstrong on the moon – in a new report.

“It’s an wattsupwiththat.comembarrassment to those of us who put NASA’s name on the map to have people like James Hansen popping off about global warming,” says the project’s leader Hal Doiron.

Rethinking nuclear in Germany

The very modest shift to RE up to 2040 With a chart to show the picture. <img src=“http://files.ozblogistan.com.au/sites/4/2019/10/07204359/US-energy-1776-2040-300×147.png” alt=”” width=”300″ height=”147″ class=”alignnone size-medium wp-image-92538″ />

The not so bright future for electric cars. Expect to see a lot of fossil-fueled cars for a very long time. In addition to all the other problem, when they achieve any real penetration of the market we will need a lot more electricity! And petrol driven generators will be handy accessories.

Revising down the effect of increasing CO2. More like one degree than three or four, or seven!

Another exciting paper for climate nerds. This is incendiary for people who take the IPCC seriously. A multiple lead author comes clean about the uncertainties! Robert Murphy is a skeptic and also an Austrian economist. He will feature in Vienna next month. He writes

The reader can hopefully appreciate my shock when I read the first two sentences from the Abstract of their paper: “The economic case for limiting warming to 1.5°C is unclear, due to manifold uncertainties. However, it cannot be ruled out that the 1.5°C target passes a cost-benefit test.”
It cannot be ruled out….! What a contrast with the usual strident tone of the IPCC prophecies of doom!

The program for the Austrian economics conference next month. Austrian-economics-2019-program1

Posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe | 14 Comments

ASADAgate again

The drug that wiped out the ­Essendon 34 was only listed as banned by ASADA the day before the club “self-reported” its supplements program in February 2013.

It was several months after the injections had stopped.

Most of the 2012 Bombers’ squad were banned after the Court of Arbitration for Sport concluded they were repeatedly injected with the WADA “prohibited” substance Thymosin Beta-4.

But an official log reveals the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority “Check Your Substances” site — which athletes and coaches are encouraged to inspect prior to using supplements — did not flag the drug as banned until the afternoon of February 4, 2013.

(Source)

As I’ve been arguing all along – this is dodgy.

Here is a post from April 2016 that is well worth republishing.

~~+~~

Recall that Senator John Madigan asked the question:

Can ASADA please supply documentation that clearly shows Essendon players had clear and unambiguous access to the WADA banned substances list at the time the alleged offences took place that showed the substance Thymosin beta-4 was on the WADA banned list.

ASADA have answered the question:

The World Anti-Doping Code mandates that the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) publish an annual list of Prohibited Substances and Methods. This is known as the ‘Prohibited List’. The Prohibited List has been published by WADA since 2004.
The current Prohibited List is published on WADA’s website at www.wadaama.org/en/resources/science-medicine/prohibited-list. Archived versions of the Prohibited List for each year since 2004 are accessible via the same link.

In addition to internet publication, WADA also makes the Prohibited List available for mobile devices with free applications available for download. The Australian Sports
Anti-Doping Authority website also contains an information page about the Prohibited List with a link to the Prohibited List at www.asada.gov.au/substances/prohibited-substances-and-methods.

As I always say – when dealing with the government always check things yourself.

So I went to the WADA page …

WADA 1

… and I tried to download the latest Prohibited List file. Unfortunately the document would not download (I have the screen shot). Okay – so I’m not an athlete, so it doesn’t matter too much. I was able to download the 2015 Prohibited List, then I searched for Thymosin Beta 4.

wada 5

Okay – let’s give ASADA a chance here – after all maybe there is a variant spelling or something. So I searched for just Thymosin.

Well … I’m not going to labour the point. I have the screen shot if anyone really wants to see it.

Now that is a tad embarrassing for ASADA having replied to a direct question, ” that showed the substance Thymosin beta-4 was on the WADA banned list” with a complete non-answer. In fact, as best I can tell the “answer” provided by ASADA is entirely false. As a final check I entered “Thymosin Beta 4” into the ASADA search function and found a single reference – to a press conference. I have that screen shot too. There is more on the WADA website than ASADA.

Recall also that McDevitt told the Senate:

They should have gone to the website where you can look up the substances that are banned but we have no evidence that any of them did. They did not make the inquiries.

Well I have gone to the website – that ASADA nominated to contain the information and I could not find Thymosin Beta 4 on any list. Mind you given that the players had been told they were receiving Thymosin and not Thymosin Beta 4 it isn’t clear to me why they would search for it, but Thymosin isn’t there either.

Now I’m sure there is an innocent explanation for this but perhaps it would be helpful if ASADA could enlighten us as to what that explanation might be.

~~+~~

As it turns out, we now discover:

Thymosin Beta-4 was not explicitly listed as a banned substance by WADA until January 2018.

So what ASADA told the Senate was factually incorrect.

Posted in AFLgate | 29 Comments

Greg Chapman: The Corbyn Conspiracy – How he intends to achieve Brexit and become PM

After the spectacular success (by ABC standards) of my previous Brexit predictions, I have decided to polish the crystal ball to see what new schemes are hatching.

Jeremy Corbyn wants to be the first communist Prime Minister of the UK but he faces a number of obstacles. First, no one wants him to be PM and second, he wants Brexit.

Wait…Corbyn wants Brexit? The EU is left wing, why wouldn’t he want to stay inside it?

Corbyn has wanted to be outside the EU for decades. His current love for it is a recent phenomenon.

While the EU is centre left, it’s not hard left. It’s controlled by France and Germany, and the latter is particularly fierce on economic discipline after the inflationary debacle of the 1930’s. It has caused leftwing governments to fall if they don’t follow its dictates, and as the financial underwriter of the EU, what it says, goes on such matters.

Corbyn, being of the hard left, fears Germany would crush a Marxist government in the UK for its financial indiscipline. Corbyn wants to be free to destroy the UK economy as he takes it towards a communist nirvana without outside interference. He can’t realise these ambitions within the EU. The EU courts may even override mass nationalisation without compensation of industries. It might be a bridge too far even for them.

So why is Corbyn supporting Remain now?

Well he isn’t really. At the Labour conference last month, a large proportion of delegates wanted to push for a referendum in which the party would support Remain, but only after a rearguard action by Corbyn, did it resolve to stay ‘neutral’ if one were held.

Corbyn is deeply unpopular even within his own party, having been installed by outside activists who definitely want to Remain. Like labor parties elsewhere, UK Labour is split between the old time socialist workers and the trendy progressives. While Corbyn is of the former he relies on the latter to stay as leader. If he came out as pro-Leave, he would be removed.

Corbyn has become a chameleon blending in with the environment until the environment changes. If an election were held while Brexit hadn’t been resolved and Labour was seen as an impediment, that is, before October 31 or later if an extension is granted by the EU, Labour would be annihilated since so many of their electorates voted Leave, and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party would pick them all off one by one, and any Remain Labour voters will go to the one true Remain party, the Liberal Democrats.

Therefore Corbyn wants Brexit to happen, so it will clear the air and restore traditional voting patterns, with which he believes he can lead a Marxist Labour Party to power.

How will Corbyn ensure Brexit happens?

While Corbyn can’t openly support Brexit, he can sabotage Remain. There is only one way that Remain can be successful. This isn’t the Benn Act, aka the Surrender Act, which supposedly forces Boris Johnson to request an extension from the EU, and then the parliamentary majority can put forward a choice between becoming a vassal state of the EU with no voting rights and Remain. Remain would obviously win that, and then Labour would be punished at the following election. A victorious Conservative party could still Leave after an election. They would campaign on it.

Also there are a number of loopholes in the Surender Act. An obvious one is that the Act leaves the extension date for the PM to nominate. Boris could just request a 24 hour extension, which the EU would reject. Whatever Boris does will be left to the last minute when the possibility to stop him is impossible.

There is only one way to successfully request an extension, renegotiate and have a referendum, and that’s to form a government of ‘national unity’, a Vichy government, a puppet of the EU. However the largest group within a Remain Coalition would be the Labour Party which would have the final say in whom would lead it. Other parties know that having Corbyn as the face of this Vichy government would be a disaster for everyone associated with it. The Tory traitors would never agree to it and are insisting that one of their number would lead it along with a less divisive figure than Corbyn from Labour, but Corbyn will refuse.

Corbyn knows two things:

  1. If he steps aside, he will never be returned to the leadership of the Labour Party.
  2. If he refuses, there will be no Vichy government and Brexit will happen on October 31.

 

Posted in Guest Post | 20 Comments

The troops will “redeploy and remain in the region”

The news just in: Trump: U.S. troops to stay in Middle East, prevent ISIS resurgence.

President Donald Trump says the roughly 1,000 U.S. troops he has ordered to leave Syria will remain in the Middle East to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State threat.

In a written statement Monday announcing his authorization of economic sanctions on Turkey, Trump made clear that the withdrawing troops will leave Syria entirely.

He said the troops will “redeploy and remain in the region.” He described their mission as “monitoring the situation” and preventing a “repeat of 2014,” when IS fighters who had organized in Syria as a fighting force swept into neighboring Iraq and took control of Iraq’s north and west.

Trump confirmed that the small number of U.S. troops at a base in southern Syria will remain there.

Bringing the troops home is not a foreign policy objective, as much as it might be an aspiration. Defeating ISIS is a foreign policy objective, which is why these troops are not coming home. A premature declaration of victory would have been a huge mistake. Part of what I truly admire about PDT is that he knows what he wants, what he wants is almost always what I want, and he is flexible enough so that when he makes a mistake that he reverses course as soon as he can.

Posted in American politics, International | 64 Comments