We haven’t had a whack at the NBN in, gee, it must be a couple of weeks.

Gillard’s latest contribution in the OZ today  is a good excuse to get back to it.

“A government-commissioned report by Greenhill Caliburn, released on Monday, warned that the booming growth of wireless broadband could have “significant long-term implications” for the NBN Co’s fibre network, which, it is planned, will connect 93 per cent of the nation.”

No way, says Gillard.

“These are complementary technologies and I believe people can understand that from their own daily lives,” Ms Gillard said yesterday. “There are times when we want to be on the move and have the technology with us. There are times when we’re in our own homes where the quality and speed of downloads is pivotal.”

If she is this good at forecasting technologies and customer use of them over 30 years (or whatever the life of the NBN has to be) she is in the wrong job. She could make squillions in VC. But of course, she isn’t.

It is frightening how ignorant and arrogant our politicians are on matters of technology. Not only Gillard – they all do it.

A simple rule, that just about everyone in business understands  -

When technological change is rapid and the direction uncertain, don’t make decisions that depend on you being able accurately to forecast the future a long way ahead.

I used to have quite a bit of time for Ross Gittins. He seemed to do a fairly good job of explaining basic economics in his SMH column. Lately he seems to have lost focus and developed a tendency to ramble. His latest, under the headline Rationalists just don’t get the new paradigm demolishes any suggestion that an Abbott government would have begun a new era of economic reform. I don’t remember reading anywhere – even here – that Abbott was a reformer so I think Gittins has bravely knocked over a straw man.

After pointing out that neither Keating (as PM) nor Howard did not achieve much in the way of reform (close to the truth) he says Let’s get real. Whether the rationalists like it or not, the era of widespread reform is long gone. Well, this rationalist does not accept that the era of widespread reform is gone. There is still much to be done and one day a brave PM will return to it.

Gittins then goes on to show a glimmer of hope

Gillard’s need to win the support of the independents may increase the likelihood of a few reforms going through. Andrew Wilkie, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott each support serious action on climate change and a tax on mining.

Good grief! I suppose any change can be described as reform but what most of us are on about is action that gets government out of the way, not new laws creating new barriers to enterprise.

My main complaint about this is what seems to me to be very wooly thinking. Argue for action on climate change and a mining tax, if that’s what you believe in, but don’t try to say that those things are economic reforms that should appeal to those of us who have learned to think rationally .

Anyway, Gittins is optimistic about Gillard and finishes with

After Labor’s disastrous first term, it has a lot to learn. But I reckon Gillard has a much steeper learning curve than Rudd. One thing Labor must learn is to stand its ground and fight for unpopular policies, not get its spin doctors to change the subject.

I agree with the first and third sentences. The second sentence I doubt.

I’m kind of glad that Abbott did not make the promises to the independents he would have to have made to get support. The letter to Oakeshott making fairly specific promises about roads, hospitals and a university camus is not the way I want our government to be run. I am sure Abbott would have made similar promises – I’m just glad he did not.

It all resembles some of the bad things about US politics – pork, earmarks and all. The US is trying to get rid of those, we are adding them.

The worst of the lot was the offer of a ministry to Oakeshott. He said that had nothing to do with the negotiations. Does he believe he was chosen for his great abilities and government experience?

I’ll bet Gillard is, after hearing his rambling speech yesterday, hoping she can get out of the offer. And of course, if he does go into the ministry and proves incompetent she won’t dare fire him.

As many have pointed out, any legislation will need to be negotiated with the independents and the Greens. None of them has undertaken to support the government on anything except supply and no confidence motions. But it’s probably worse – we’ll get  horsetrading “I’ll support that if you do this..”

No good can come of any of this. But I am not sure it would have been much better under a Coalition government hobbled in the same way.

I am a fan of Bob Ellis’s writings. I have enjoyed most of his political books though have been embarrassed for him over his attempts to write about economics. Following his stuff on Unleashed over the past few months, I feared he was losing his touch. But today he is back in form.

I still disagree with much of what Ellis writes, but he writes it so well that he has to be admired. And this piece is not too far wrong in his explanations of much of the dopiness that the government is displaying and in his advice to Gillard. I am not sure she has to get married, though, and expelling Kamahl as a Tamil overstayer is not the best idea Ellis has ever had.

Still, Ellis in entertaining and, for one on the left, quite insightful.