Open Forum May 15, 2010

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745 Responses to Open Forum May 15, 2010

1. Rococo Liberal says:

Andrew, they are not Clegg’s plan, they are the Tories’ policy now being implemented by the Coalition.

2. RL,
All of the points Clegg makes in there have been Lib Dems policy for some time.
As much as I voted for the Tories in the UK while living there (and would not have voted for the Lib Dems in a pink fit) much of this was not, until recently, Tory policy.

3. JC says:

nice slide from libertarian to libertine and back again.

That’s an interesting point. If I marry it up with a comment Bird made in one of his more lucid moments.

It’s not necessarily a given that libertarianism would move the culture towards libertine ways and in fact there could be an opposite effect. I thought he had a point about that.

of course it wouldn’t be a culture dictated to by the state.

JC,

It’s a point we often make at Menzies House.

“There’s room for everyone. Libertarians can sleep on the urine soaked dog blanket in the basement”

5. jtfsoon says:

I think a lean govt libertarian society would have a culture similar to what you find in Deadwood and the rest of the ‘wild’ West.

There would be a gamblin’, and a whorin’ and drugs, but it would not be at anyone’s expense except the consumer’s and the majority of people would still comprise solid hardworking stable families.

6. I know next to nothing about Rand Paul, except that I heard Phillip Adams on LNL yesterday claim he was named after Ayn Rand, which I now see is a story Paul has had to deny before. (Appears it is short for “Randal”.)

Yes, that’s horseshit. PA is a tool.

8. C.L. says:

…ensuring CCTV was “properly regulated” and restricting the storage of innocent people’s DNA.

Still sounds pretty mealy-mouthed. So they’ll “regulate” the UK’s Himmler-worthy CCTV matrix, eh?

RL, Cameron’s Conservatives haven’t been pushing any of this stuff. They played the cowardly small target strategy – which is why they’re now in the humiliating situation of driving the country on L-plates with a Lib-Dem instructor.

9. Steve Edney says:

I think a lean govt libertarian society would have a culture similar to what you find in Deadwood and the rest of the ‘wild’ West.

As much as I enjoyed the show I’m not sure that society is going to entice many people.

10. jtfsoon says:

I disagree Steve. That was because those societies were just being settled in the life of the series. You could see the philantrophy (by Al Swearengen) and public facilities building up over time and more security and culture being introduced but it was all in the early stage.

11. jtfsoon says:

The point is that 90% of the people in Deadwood weren’t just having pansexual orgies strung out on pot and opium just because there was no govt

12. Damn spam bot filter disliked my renaming of myself as Adramelech. Even word press hates the evil libertarian hegemon.

13. JC says:

The gamblin whoring and drugs wouldn’t change all that much that we have now, I’d say.

You’d probably find a little more use of designer type drugs as a replacement for drinking is my bet.

14. Steve Edney says:

Sure it wasn’t total anarchy and facilities were build up by private enterprise but at the same time the soceity is dominated by 2-3 above the law strong men who essentally keep slaves whom they murder at their own discretion.

15. asf says:

In my version of a libertarian society, adults would be free to buy whatever drugs they wanted from whoever they pleased. However, anyone found guilty of selling or providing recreational drugs to minors would be severely punished (unlike the current system which results in minors paying the same price for drugs as adults).

16. Steve Edney says:

My point is that the LDP running with the slogan “we want Australia to be more like Deadwood” might confuse the desirable features with the undesirable.

17. JC says:

As much as I enjoyed the show I’m not sure that society is going to entice many people.

That’s true. People for instance can’t possibly conceive no state involvement in education as though the mere concept is beyond imagination.

The wall libertarians have to push society in that direction is that people are afraid of the idea that there may not be a safety net.

18. The undesireable features are bit of a myth. We’ve shifted from sexual and racial social conservatism in 1900 to drug and firearm social conservatism.

In either case, when society was more liberalised before or after, hell did not break loose, nor was it contained.

19. “People for instance can’t possibly conceive no state involvement in education as though the mere concept is beyond imagination.”

True. Many people think it’s a pure public good.

“The wall libertarians have to push society in that direction is that people are afraid of the idea that there may not be a safety net.”

The movement would do well to support agorism and private social justice.

Ben Peter Tepestra-Flanders for example believed that social justice as done in Manly through the Catholic church (with a revolving micro-credit scheme) would lead to elderly people eating dogfood, like the famous ACA set up of Hawke. This is from an alleged “conservative”.

Never mind you can buy a box of 12 pre mixed cereal breakfasts for 99c at Aldi.

20. JC says:

Re libertarianism.

I don’t know if this is true or not but an architect friend of mine told me recently that the very first building codes of any significance were introduced in the early 50’s.

It’s surprising then how we possibly managed to survive without them all through the ages. Lol

When I mention to people that we should eliminate 95% of building codes with a view to moving to 100% I usually get the reply about the fear that a factory would open up next door to them.

When I argue that it would be very unlikely that a factory would open up next door and in fact it would be economically impossible (virtually) they still suggest there is a possibility.

I suppose that is true hypothetically. If Homer (hypothetically) was CEO of a steal mill I wouldn’t put it past him to set up in Bellvue Hill.

21. Steve Edney says:

A “steal mill” sounds like something Goldman Sachs would finance.

22. jtfsoon says:

SRL, Someone is on your case.

Mark gets about in a state of near insanity and no-one seems to notice or lock him up. For this reason I’ve collected some total gibber he’s written over at the Horwitz gay-street wing of Austrian economics and will store it here before it gets wiped. If you don’t understand what he’s saying remember that Mark has no clue either

23. Such arguments are hard to convince people against but they are economically literate. A steel mill let alone an abbitoir cannot set up in Bellvue Hill, let alone Doonside. It just costs too much money. You’re better off redeveloping the land for high density stuff.

Ditto for a power station. If we had strong property rights, Caose’s theorem would basically sort out pollution. Moreso if we privatised infrastrucutre to mutualised community title.

24. JC says:

oops..

Yes, they would… Lol, When there’s no red lines under words I always think it doesn’t need to be checked.

Hey Steve,

did you read how last quarter Gold Sack did not have one down day in “trading”.

That’s extra-ordinary however what it means is that their franchise businesses are so huge that they’re not prop trading or it’s really insignificant to the customer business that comes through.

That place is a gold mine.

25. Graeme reckons I’m dumb because he can’t understand my counter argument?

Society is on a downward spiral with this kind of “reasoning”.

26. JC says:

He really has it in for you these days, SRL. Better you than me 🙂

27. jtfsoon says:

he’s discovered another ‘gay street’ wing, Mark, this time at the Austrian economists. Remember he found a ‘gay wing’ in the LDP too?

28. JC says:

In fact Jason’s been copping it too. For some reason I’m not on the radar as much for the past few weeks (The fat lard).

29. JC says:

hahahahahah I love it how’s he’s a militant heterosexual. I never thought such a thing existed until Bird.

30. If I expanded on the loan book and issue/arbitrage constraint, I’d have a cogent thesis for free banking.

31. SRL,
Why not just plain “Baal” for short? It is a touch less formal.

32. JC says:
33. I’ve put up drug legalisation and Quaker anarchist history on Menzies House. Should progress in a totally uncivil manner.

34. JC says:

Costello says that anyone who suggests we should dissuade overseas capital requires psychiatric treatment. He reckons they need medication.

Kev?

35. Peter Patton says:

Perhaps they need tax-free alcopops? 😉

36. tal says:

Kev’s staff will be hiding the newspapers from him

37. JC says:

Joining on to that the fact that Rudd told the miners their inward investment is causing a fall in overseas student numbers may suggest Kev 07, Swandive and Rattlensake Tanner could do a group therapy session.

Thinking about it a little more I think Costello was wrong to say no country the world is dissuading overseas investment. Huggy Chavez and his co-revolutionary in Bolivia are too.

So perhaps Rudd could call a meeting with the other two meatheads where they can discuss their problems. Kev could create a new forum for this.

38. JC says:

Weather forecast for Vostok Antarctica Thursday is

Cloudy range -53 to -65 C

39. Global warming.

40. JC says:

yea, SRL… I put it for Steve so he knows when it’s safe to come off the mountain.

41. I think I’ve been locked out at Menzies House!

There’s room for everyone! You can sleep in the compost heap, it’s nice and warm!

42. Ah no, I jumped the gun.

43. Well…they reckon I’ve said enough about a republic. Maybe they’re right!

44. JC says:

The Aussie dollar is down almost 10 cents in 8 days since the announcement.

Oh, it’s fallen against everything including the Euro which means that if anyone says it’s falling because the US dollar is strong they’re bullshitting. The Aussie is falling because people are selling out and going home.

Kev 07 prefers students he told miners.

45. JC says:

This is really ominous because the Aussie shouldn’t be falling when the RBA is hiking.

46. JC says:

Phil Tell Birdie that he should stop talking to SRL because SRL brings him down intellectually.

Graeme, I do feel for you trying to mine what empty, try-hard non-entities like whatisname Mark Hill can be possibly saying or meaning that isn’t totally arsehat, reactionary and plain useless.

There comes a time, I promise you, when relief and clarity comes and you finally find you don’t give a rat’s for what such poor unfortunate group thinkers think, feel or say, and from that point you can move on and in your new found freedom simply soar intellectually.

That’s quite funny… Phil is actually quite mad. I really means that.

47. Michael Fisk says:

This is great stuff. Rand Paul attacks Obama for trying to destroy the industrial revolution, appeasing tyrants like Mugabe, Chavez.

http://www.infowars.com/rand-paul-savages-obama%e2%80%99s-catastrophic-green-economy/

48. Michael Fisk says:

Department of Justice lawyer resigns over Obama’s support for Black Panther voting booth intimidation:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWM5N2E3ZDZlMmY2NjgxMzQ3MTNiNmVlMzg4NThjZDU=

Change!

49. Jason Soon says:
50. BirdLab says:

Bird and his fat-arsed gay lover actually do make a great pair.

51. Steve Edney says:

“This is really ominous because the Aussie shouldn’t be falling when the RBA is hiking.”

I think the expectation is increasingly that the RBA will be cutting in future, regardless of what they say now. It seems to me now the agressive hiking over the last 6 months has been overdone given its predicated on mining led growth driving the economy. This is increasingly not looking so strong due to the Kev and Euro issues.

52. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

steve,

the possibility of China slowing and the fall in commodity prices maybe related don’t you think?
Greeks bearing debts related here too.

53. Steve Edney says:

Umm yes. Lower commoditiy prices follow the Euro problems

China slowing is also more likely with greater Euro problems.

54. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Also related Steve is the market’s attitude to risk.

When it is normal then the $A is fine but when it is averse as it is now then the$A is vulnerable.

55. dover_beach says:
56. Sinclair Davidson says:

ARHOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooo. 🙂

Dover – what a great frock.

57. tal says:

Again with the frocks

58. C.L. says:

Such hair, such porcelain skin. Mama mia! 🙂

59. JC says:

Man… I love that dress. It’s a beauty.

———-

Had to laugh Bolt is carrying a piece by Moodys where they are comparing us to Zambia!

IT is not often that Australia’s tax system gets compared with that of a country such as Zambia, but international ratings agency Moody’s has warned the government to pay heed to how mining exploration dropped there following a big increase in resource taxes in 2008.

Zambia, Africa’s top copper producer, has since repealed many of those increases, leading its mines minister recently to call for investors leaving Australia to head for the African nation.

In 2008, partly on the advice of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, Zambia boosted company tax from 25 per cent to 30 per cent and royalties from 0.6 per cent to 3 per cent. It also brought in a 25 per cent tax on copper and cobalt profits once prices hit a certain level…

“The experience of Zambia provides a cautionary tale,” Moody’s analyst Matthew Moore said.

“Its introduction of a similar (to the Rudd government’s proposed tax) windfall tax on minerals likewise upset foreign mining firms and was blamed for a reduction in mining exploration,” he said.

60. C.L. says:

Confirming that most Press Gallery journalists are, in fact, spokesmen for the Labor Party and dishonest scum…

61. dover_beach says:

such porcelain skin

Beats a tan any day.

62. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Zambia has a lot of err legal fees involved, a judiciary of questionable quality and justice system that works on ‘incentive’ payments.

yeah a great comparison

63. jtfsoon says:

poodles?

well that confirms your hypothesis about Phil batting for the other team, Lab. NTTAWWT

64. jtfsoon says:

How much flatulence do you need to become airborne? (in case Phil and Birdy want to save money on airline tickets for their honeymoon)

65. dover_beach says:

CL, I noticed this yesterday but was amused to see that it appeared in the 7.30 Report as Hockey “dodging” the details. Words fail me.

66. C.L. says:

The science is settled: “global warming is over.”

“However, the bad news is that global cooling is even more harmful to humans than global warming, and a cause for even greater concern.”

LOL.

67. JC says:

Homer:

Tell that to Moody’s, you moron. Call Moodys and tell them that in your “expert” opinion they’re not doing the right thing with this comparison.

Anyways, that’s a first.. I think it’s the first time we’ve been compared to that continent. Last time a labor government was in town we were being told we resembled a south American banana republic.

There seems to be a tendency for third world status whenever this party gets into office. It’s like that is what they aspire to.

68. JC says:

Jason:

Could you imagine the embrace as they butt stomachs and bounce backwards. IT would be fun to watch. … a sort of anti-porn.

69. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Moody yes I remember them they said CDOS were AAA rated when they weren’t.

I hope you bought a stack of them.

Yeah a super profits tax is real third world.

nothing like getting rid of deadweight losses.

70. C.L. says:

Relax, JC. Simon Crean says he’s outsourced the details on Rudd’s new mine tax to China.

Hey, maybe Joel Fitzgibbon can be the middle man.

71. C.L. says:

“…nothing like getting rid of deadweight losses…”

I think that’s what Tim Blair said when he banned you for dishonesty, Homer.

72. JC says:

The only dead weight loss I can think of getting rid of is you, Homer by getting you off this site.

Moody’s is making an apt comparison as they looked at the system set up there and they noticed everyone heading for the hills.

Hey, but if you think their wrong tell us how. Write it up and I’m sure that Sinclair would give you a guest thread that shows how Moodys reached this incorrect assertion and that you’re right.

73. JC says:

hahahahahhaha Crean is performing participatory democracy by asking the Chinese Government if they’re okay with the tax.

Labor is trying to engender a stakeholder society.

These people are truly fucking clowns. Do we have to wait until the elections to get rid of them.

74. C.L. says:

The greatest rock album of the 70s back at number 1 in the UK.

75. jtfsoon says:

Latham has a swipe at Rudd in today’s AFR

76. C.L. says:

Crean’s decision to give the Chinese a say on an Australian bill should be cause for the Governor-General to call Rudd to Yarralumla for an official explanation. I’m not kidding.

77. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

CL, like you timbo wouldn’t know the truth if it hit him in the face.

Yeah Zambia is a real competitor to anyone who knows nothing about the country which sums up Forrest.

78. JC says:

No Kidding, but I always thought Latham got a raw deal as I don’t think he would have been even close to performing as badly as Rudd.

Anyways when even Latham is having a go at you, you know it’s over.

79. Okay Homer, explain why very large firms (i.e BP and Total-Elf Fina) prefer to go to Nigeria or Cambodia rather than invest heavily in our NW shelf.

Now you’re pretending we don’t have any political risk. Tanner has said “we” own the minerals. Rudd said the Dutch disease is crowding out foreign students. He’s also inferred that he simeltaneously believes in the Gregory thesis but he’s been responsible for the cancellation of several projects.

80. JC says:

Homer:

As I said, if you think Moody’s is incorrect in their comparison, “carefully and intelligently” explain why and I’m sure Cap. Sinc will give you a guest thread.

IF you can’t, then no amount of dishonesty insane blathering will help you.

Oh and Blair was right to ban you by the way. You’re too dishonest and annoying to ever be on any site.

Go away.

81. jtfsoon says:

I know this puts me in the same league as Homer but I actually voted Labor when Latham was leader. He may have talked a lot of nonsense but he was fundamentally a Labor economic rationalist in the Keating mould who would’ve junked the bad stuff when in power, I thought.

82. JC says:

Homer;

How much a day do you want not to post comments here? Serious question.

Name a figure on a daily basis.

There’s nothing more freaking annoying than to fire up the Cat and see your pathetic moniker up there.

How much?

83. Jason,

“Civilising global capital” wasn’t a bad book, for a lefty.

84. JC says:

He may have talked a lot of nonsense but he was fundamentally a Labor economic rationalist in the Keating mould who would’ve junked the bad stuff when in power, I thought.

Yea, I thought so too, though I wouldn’t vote for them.

85. C.L. says:

The other interesting thing about the Rolling Stones’ Exile on Main Street was that it was recorded on the Côte d’Azur because UK Labour had introduced a 93 percent tax on the rich – thus making the band tax exiles in France. The band hotwired electricity from the national grid. So the album was made with stolen electricity in defiance of left-wing, creativity-destroying economic orthodoxy.

86. JC says:

CL:

So the album was made with stolen electricity in defiance of left-wing, creativity-destroying economic orthodoxy.

You’re fast becoming more libertarian than libertarians in a lot of ways.

I notice you also read Reason these days too.

87. C.L. says:

Reason is a favorite read these days, JC, along with the articles and ideas coming out of the Acton Institute (whose brief is to reconcile Christian theology and market economics – two forces falsely estranged from one another by the socialist throwbacks in the dirigiste ‘justice and peace’ racket).

88. CL would also have to be pretty rare as a seriously Catholic libertarian, too, I think.

Anyhow, hot on the heals of a 16 yr old sailing round the world, the NYT reports on a 13 yr old boy on his way up Everest. Previous youngest was 17.

They are deliberately going up a less used route so as to avoid minimum age limit on permits from Nepal! And here’s what he’ll face:

“The crux of the north side, the so-called Three Steps, beginning at 27,890 feet, is a technically tricky and potentially treacherous rock climb along the steep, exposed northeast ridge. Here, Jordan will use fixed ropes to pull his body up the windy first step, then scale a 10-foot rock slab before climbing the 30-foot Chinese Ladder, a metal ladder set up by a Chinese climbing party in 1975 that is over a 10,000-foot drop.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/20/sports/20climber.html?hpw

89. jtfsoon says:

Samuel Gregg is at the Acton now. He does great stuff and is a very learned philosopher. I knew him from when we both worked at the CIS

90. Reason have some gems at the moment:

http://reason.com/archives/2010/05/19/pre-crime-policing

91. Sinclair Davidson says:

John Shepherd-Barron died peacefully in hospital in Inverness, northern Scotland, on Saturday, said his funeral director, Alasdair Rhind.

The BBC reported Mr Shepherd-Barron started thinking about how to obtain cash outside business hours after being locked out of his bank, and the eureka moment came when he was in the bath.

“It struck me there must be a way I could get my own money, anywhere in the world or the UK,” he told the broadcaster in a 2007 interview.

“I hit upon the idea of a chocolate bar dispenser, but replacing chocolate with cash.”

Barclays commissioned the invention and the first ATM was installed at a London bank in 1967. It paid out a maximum of 10 pounds a time.

92. How did the cards work what were they like at the time?

93. Ah okay:

“Plastic bank cards had not been invented at the time, so Mr Shepherd-Barron’s machine used cheques impregnated with carbon 14, a slightly radioactive substance, according to reports.”

94. Andrew Reynolds says:

I was just reading this and thinking of GMB’s insistence that physics is stuck inside the Standard Model and that no-one was willing to challenge it, or that publishing things that disagreed with it was difficult.
If you want the more technical wording it is:

We measure the charge asymmetry $A$ of like-sign dimuon events in 6.1 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions recorded with the D0 detector at a center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. From $A$, we extract the like-sign dimuon charge asymmetry in semileptonic $b$-hadron decays: $\aslb = -0.00957 \pm 0.00251 ({\rm stat}) \pm 0.00146 ({\rm syst})$. This result differs by 3.2 standard deviations from the standard model prediction $\aslb(SM) = (-2.3^{+0.5}_{-0.6}) \times 10^{-4}$ and provides first evidence of anomalous CP-violation in the mixing of neutral $B$ mesons.

Here
It’s further evidence, if any more were needed, that he is wrong on that.

95. Steve Edney says:

UK Labour had introduced a 93 percent tax on the rich – thus making the band tax exiles in France

I thought it was 95% – which is why the Beatles sang,
“Let me tell you how it will be;
There’s one for you, nineteen for me.
‘Cause I’m the taxman,
Yeah, I’m the taxman.

Should five per cent appear too small,
Be thankful I don’t take it all.
‘Cause I’m the taxman,
Yeah, I’m the taxman. “

96. Sinclair Davidson says:

If you’re thnking about GMB you got far too much time on your hands. 🙂

97. Andrew Reynolds says:

No, just going through and bringing my paperwork up to date after a trip and before I go on another. KL and Penang next. At least I can get some duty free tobacco on the way back in.

98. Steve Edney says:

“was just reading this and thinking of GMB’s insistence that physics is stuck inside the Standard Model and that no-one was willing to challenge it, or that publishing things that disagreed with it was difficult.”

No Renoylds you are lying.

GMB would consider “inside the standard model” as anything that is not expressed in one syllable words with no maths and and does not involve a complete refutation of pretty much all 20th Century physics as

99. Andrew Reynolds says:

Steve,
The BBC report avoids maths apart from the 1% figure. They do not even talk about it being 3.2 standard deviations out from the Standard Model’s predictions.
You are right – probably still too tricky.

100. BirdLab says:
101. I dunno. Maybe we should bring back the death penalty:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Faure#Summary_of_criminal_convictions

102. Steve Edney says:

“The BBC report avoids maths apart from the 1% figure. ”

This is irrelevent REYNOLDS! The researchers doing used maths and voodoo science not Youtube.

Birdlab,

Newton was responsible for the domination of mathematics over scientific equiry of course he hates him. Bird of course is still struggling with labelling cartesian axes.

103. BirdLab says:

Quite true Steve.

I don’t hold out much hope for the crypto-communist Pythagorean geometry scam, either.

104. JC says:

I agree with Larry Kudlow.

After last night’s primary elections, a pipedream came to me: A new tea-party center is forming in the Republican Senate caucus. It will be the first Reagan nucleus in many years, one that will give the GOP a strong limited-government, cut-spending, low-tax-rate, stop-government-controls, and end-Bailout Nation message that will have clarity and gusto and will reverberate throughout the country.

Here’s how it’s going to work: Rand Paul will grab the Senate seat in Kentucky. Marco Rubio will take Florida. Mike Lee will win in Utah. Pat Toomey will finally prevail in Pennsylvania. And Carly Fiorina will knock off Barbara Boxer in California.

Yup. That’s how I see it. And this new tea-party Senate nucleus will join free-market stalwarts like Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn, Jon Kyl, Richard Shelby, Jeff Sessions, and John Thune. I’m probably leaving somebody out in the Senate, and I apologize in advance. But that’s what I’m thinking. It’s a pity Judd Gregg is retiring; he could be part of that group also.

This will be a reformist nucleus, tackling spending, taxes, and even monetary and currency policy. It will unabashedly propose free-market reforms to replace the Obama welfare state and to finally curb the avalanche of debt creation.

It looks to me like the GOP can in fact capture the Senate, by the way. But even if they don’t, this new group will revolutionize politics.

If Carly knocks off Boxer in Cal it will be an entirely different senate.

105. JC says:

Aussie’s trading in the 82’s now. Hey guys this isn’t liquidation because of Rudd’s Bolivarian revolution… 🙂 No siree.

106. JC says:

The aussie traded from 84 to 82.75 in a hour. Players are saying it’s foreigners liquidating.

107. BirdLab says:

What was it trading before the announcement Joe?

108. Sinclair Davidson says:

Those foreigners are just being un-Australian. Don’t they understand that they have to pay us for all those resources they’re getting for free? 🙂

109. Sinclair Davidson says:

JC – look on the bright side; the government has solved the Dutch disease problem. 🙂

110. Steve Edney says:

If AUD droppping faster than the commodities, then won’t this increase the superprofits? Could be a cunning government plot.

111. Andrew Reynolds says:

BirdLab,
Interbank rates for the last month
(www.oanda.com – US date format)
04/20/2010 0.91950000
04/21/2010 0.93040000
04/22/2010 0.93040000
04/23/2010 0.92710000
04/24/2010 0.92240000
04/25/2010 0.92790000
04/26/2010 0.92770000
04/27/2010 0.92830000
04/28/2010 0.92210000
04/29/2010 0.92200000
04/30/2010 0.92720000
05/01/2010 0.92960000
05/02/2010 0.92480000
05/03/2010 0.92460000
05/04/2010 0.92610000
05/05/2010 0.91570000
05/06/2010 0.90780000
05/07/2010 0.89900000
05/08/2010 0.88850000
05/09/2010 0.88810000
05/10/2010 0.88870000
05/11/2010 0.90320000
05/12/2010 0.89770000
05/13/2010 0.89410000
05/14/2010 0.89920000
05/15/2010 0.89130000
05/16/2010 0.88630000
05/17/2010 0.88630000
05/18/2010 0.87680000
05/19/2010 0.87310000
05/20/2010 0.84730000

I will let you guess where the speculation really started and where it was confirmed.

112. “If AUD droppping faster than the commodities, then won’t this increase the superprofits? Could be a cunning government plot.”

That depends on what is driving the FX fluctuation. It could end up punishing efficient, domestic only producers with an export base – the currency may revalue after the risk is eliminated once you no longer hold risky AUD denominated assets. I assume the RFR will remain roughly the same.

113. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Sinkers in Australia it is known as the Gregory thesis since Bob Gregory published his article in 1975 a tad after the economist commented on the Dutch disease.

He put the theory behind the thought.

114. jtfsoon says:

Homer the economic history pedant.

If only he put the same amount of pedantry into his spelling, grammar and logic.

115. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

only helping the crackpots out afterall you do not read here certainly not the Henry report well maybe you Statman

116. JC says:

It even fell against the Euro: the Euro until our Canberra based Bolivarian economists decided that we needed equality as an industry policy was the weakest currency around.

I heard a team of economists form Venezuela landed the weekend just before the super profits tax was announced.

“Thank jeez I converted to the Dollar or as they say in Venezuela , ” Dollara”.”

117. jtfsoon says:

gee thanks Homer, I think

118. JC says:

I’ve decided that in honor of the Bolivarain revolución I’m going to translate everything Homer says into Spanish in honor of the economist revolutionaries helping in Canberra now.

Homer says:

Sinkers en Australia se le conoce como la tesis de Gregorio desde que Bob Gregory publicó su artículo en 1975 un poco después de que el economista escribió sobre la enfermedad neerlandés.

Puso la teoría detrás del pensamiento.

Come to think of it… the moron makes more sense in Spanish.

119. JC says:

Hey Homer:

Thought about how much you want per day not to post here.

(it’s a libertarian way of banning you)

In Spanish that’s:

Hola Homero:

Pensé en cuánto quieres por día no para publicar aquí.

(Es una forma libertaria de la prohibición de usted)

120. JC says:

Bird lab.

They announced the revolutionary Bolivarian tax on the 3 may. Take a look at the Aussie from then on. It’s been as low as 8260 on liquidation. There were rumors of that tax all through the week before cresting on the Friday.

121. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Only an complete idiot would put the fall in the $A down to the super profit tax. I must tell the traders of this theory. They will be amused 122. Important sounding AGW research paper just out (on new analysis of ocean temperatures): http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/42649 (I know you all long to be well informed on the topic!) 123. “Only an complete idiot would put the fall in the$A down to the super profit tax.

I must tell the traders of this theory. They will be amused”

Come on Homer, who exactly are you going to tell and what is the alternative theory?

124. “the study does not explain why the records suggest that ocean warming has stalled since 2004”

Thanks steve!

125. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Marky the market never ever takes that long to react to an announcement however it did react to other things like commodity prices, Greece and Euro and China slowing.

Come on Homer, who exactly are you going to tell and what is the alternative theory?
.
You won’t get an answer. Homer’s alternative theory will be hinted at but never explained. That’s always his trick. For instance, when Sinclair provided data showing that the stimulus may not have worked at all, Homer was absent, except to quickly pop in and say “try to think.”
Oh. Okay Homer. Let me think.
Thanks for the tip.

Greece and Euro and China
.
the Greek crisis happened yesterday?

128. Got to be read in full context, SRL!

129. “the market never ever takes that long to react to an announcement ”

Bear Sterns, AIG, Lehman?

Yes Homer the capital markets reacted instantaneously. I see you believe an extreme form of the EMH today because it suits your agenda.

130. Sinclair Davidson says:

We’ve had this discussion before Homer. I’m happy to agree that Bob Gregory hasn’t gotten enough recognition for his contribution to understanding Dutch disease, but it is only known as the Gregory thesis here in Australia and we do have an international audience.

131. “Got to be read in full context, SRL!”

No chump I read the context you found inconvenient.

132. http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0905/0905.0704.pdf

To be published in: Energy & Environment 20 (2009) 131-144
131
EARTH’S HEAT SOURCE – THE SUN
Oliver K. Manuel
Emeritus Professor, Space and Nuclear Studies
University of Missouri, Rolla, MO 65401
Associate, Climate & Solar Science Institute
625 Broadway, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.omatumr.com

ABSTRACT
The Sun encompasses planet Earth, supplies the heat that warms it, and even
shakes it. The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) assumed that solar influence on Earth’s climate is limited to changes in
Standard Solar Model (SSM). They did not consider the alternative solar model
play a dominant role in climate change. The SSM fails to explain the solar wind,
solar cycles, and the empirical link of solar surface activity with Earth’s changing
climate. The alternative solar model—molded from an embarrassingly large
number of unexpected observations that space-age measurements revealed since
1959—explains not only these puzzles but also how closely linked interactions
between the Sun and its planets and other celestial bodies induce turbulent cycles
of secondary solar characteristics that significantly affect Earth’s climate.

133. For those keen on emulating T Abbott’s displays of physical stamina:

“Beetroot juice boosts stamina by making muscles more fuel-efficient, scientists have found.

Last year the same researchers reported that the juice can increase physical endurance. The study focused on men aged 19 to 38 cycling on exercise bikes. Drinking 500ml of beetroot juice a day for a week enabled them to cycle 16 per cent longer before getting tired out.”

http://tinyurl.com/25pvklx
I’ll stick to lime juice (in a gin and tonic, of course.)

134. JC says:

Homer:

The Aussie has fallen against the Euro. The Euro is the weakest currency in the world until the Bolivarian revolutionary tax.

135. JC,
Compare the AUD to just about any currency. I just did for the MYR and we have tanked.
Bloody hell – I thought it was going to be a good trip to do some shopping.

136. Wow.

Getting a response to the post on coordination problem.

I think they have dismissed it out of hand and the explanation is handwaving. If they read it more thoroughly and their maths was more robust, the second and third criticisms wouldn’t exist.

The first criticism seems that they don’t know if they agree with the quntity of money identity or not.

http://www.coordinationproblem.org/2010/05/ebeling-and-selgin-contra-salerno-on-mises-and-100-reserves.html?cid=6a00d83451eb0069e2013481358ef1970c#comment-6a00d83451eb0069e2013481358ef1970c

Will post there tomorrow.

137. I’m waiting for Homer’s theory, AR.

138. dover_beach says:

No chump I read the context you found inconvenient.

Exactly, SRL.

139. JC says:

Andrew:

It’s an absolute crushing.

I can’t believe what the fuck they’ve done. I really just can’t believe these freaking morons.

Prior to their proposal to impose a Bolivarian revolutionary super-not tax, the central focus on Australia was foreign equity investors.

These dudes were accepting pretty high multiples to move capital over here whether it was direct investment or portfolio purchases.

Kevin Bolivar-Rudd and his beautiful assistant Che Swandive tell miners they don’t like that sort of investment because it’s crowding out inward foreign students, so as a natural consequence capital leaves the country and the currency and equity markets get crushed and equity multiples implode.

Now lets not forget that we need to fund the current account deficit, so we still need foreign inflow, unless Kevin Bolivar-Rudd and Che Swandive don’t want to have anything to do with foreign investors and close us down. I’m assuming at this stage they aren’t, which of course means they have to attract another set of investors that deal in another asset class.

Now which asset class would that be? That’s right it’s the asset class that is right in the middle of a Katrina-like storm at the moment… sovereign debt investors.. Bond investors.

What the fuck kind of premium would you need to attract this investor class at the moment (with Greece going on) to buy Australian bonds when Kevin Bolivar-Rudd and Che SwanDive have basically told equity investors to fuck off?

They’ve cause real serious material compression in the equity markets for our best industry and we’re now looking to attract bond investors. Good fucking luck fellas.

And get this… they have caused equity multiples compression and caused our currency to be crushed and as a result we’ll need more Australian Dollars to buy our imports and our interest rates will go up in the long –end to offer a discount to bond investors as we’re now competing with every country in the world flooding the markets with sovereign paper.

If there was an international court for economic crimes against humanity these morons would be on fucking death row.

140. C.L. says:

EARTH’S HEAT SOURCE – THE SUN

A truly revolutionary thesis.

And it didn’t occur to the IPCC.

141. C.L. says:

Barnaby Tanner’s costing of the Opposition’s spending promises: $15.7 billion. Actual costing of the Opposition’s spending promises:$4.8 billion.

Out by just $11 billion. 142. JC says: His correct title is Rattlesnake Tanner, CL. 143. JC says: Every time someone disagrees with him he starts hissing. Watch him. 144. C.L. says: Rudd: without NBN, Australia will return to the horse and buggy. Yet another reason for warmenists to back Abbott. 145. Selective reading is the speciality of climate skeptics, I should’ve remembered. As I understand it, this paper is looking at the openly acknowledged problem of how to correctly calculate ocean heat content over recent decades. It’s clearly not the end of the issue, but makes an advance. The fact that more work needs to be done is not of itself grounds for dismissing this finding that heat did in fact increase over the total period in question. From another source: “The amount of heat absorbed by the ocean varied from year to year, the researchers note. The rate of ocean warming was slow from 1993 to 1998, then increased sharply between 1998 and 2003. But from 2003 to 2008 water temperatures again held fairly steady… Regardless of the source of year-to-year variations in the warming rate, says Trenberth, the slowdown in warming near the ocean’s surface since 2003 is inconsistent with satellite measurements that suggest Earth’s heat absorption increased during that time frame. Despite these discrepancies, he writes in a commentary in Nature, “as the relevant analytical methods mature, ocean heat content is likely to become a key indicator of climate change.” http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/59362/title/Oceans_warmed_in_recent_decades 146. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says: Forrest a pity the$A was falling well after the policy was announced.

Oh Robb mixed up capital expenditure ans recurrent expenditure.

The Libs should go to Chris Richardson cap in hand profusely apologize for Costello’s bullying behaviour that cost Access economics money after the 2001 election and get them to do the work.
They are the best in the business and the favour the libs as well.

no more embarassments like yesterday

147. C.L. says:

ABC reports: Campbell resigns for ‘personal reasons’.

Daily Telegraph reports: Labor MP David Campbell resigns as Minister for Transport and Roads after visiting gay sauna.

Yes, he used a ministerial car to get there but I’m not sure I approve of this sting.

148. As with that married American anti-gay activist who trounced through an airport with his young, internet- purchased rentboy, I simply cannot believe how dumb older men who want to play on the other team for a while are when it comes to their assessment of “how likely is it I may be caught by people who will report this?” A ministerial car! Should be sacked for generic idiocy, not for misuse of the car.

149. THR says:

Maybe this would’ve got a bit more attention if the culprits had been wearing burqas:

150. tal says:

151. C.L. says:

Steve, I’m not sure a man’s wife and children deserve to be destroyed over his use of a ministerial car to get to a gay sauna. Obviously, if he’d misused it to pick up his son from football training, Channel 7 wouldn’t have bothered reporting it.

Yes, he used a ministerial car to get there but I’m not sure I approve of this sting.
.
It seems like the scandal is that he’s gay, and the fact that he drove there in a work car has been thrown in to add some kind of “corruption” angle. Since it’s not illegal to be gay nor to visit gay nightclubs, I’m trying to figure out what he did wrong. If he drove to a cocktail party in the car, would that also be a scandal? (assuming he didn’t drink-drive afterwards)

153. FDB says:

“The Sun encompasses planet Earth”

Stop RIGHT THE FUCK THERE. One sentence fragment into the abstract.

Does the author speak English Mark? If so, does he believe that the Sun encompasses the Earth?

My goodness me. After a couple of minutes trying to find anything on his credentials, I find he’s a major exponent of the completely discredited and at first glace ridiculous theory that the sun is made of iron.

WELL WHY DOESN’T IT FALL OUT OF THE SKY THEN??? I might as well respond, for all the sense it’d get me.

154. C.L. says:

About 90 police have been involved in searches over the past two days of 12 properties owned by a religious sect known as the Agape Ministries of God, which believes the world is approaching the end.

Sounds like a good reason to raid Steve’s place. 🙂

155. C.L.,
While I would agree there was no need for him to resign for this reason, given he has a wife and children he may need to spend some more time with them than would be consistent with remaining a minister.
That said, perhaps he could have just taken a few weeks off.

156. FDB says:

“Selective reading is the speciality of climate skeptics, I should’ve remembered.”

The bigger problem is that they think science is something it has never been and never will be – a source of reliable truth statements, neatly described in papers anyone can understand just from the abstract, without any training, or background reading, or further reading to fill in the blanks in the reader’s understanding.

In short, you “should’ve remembered” that climate skeptics by and large do not understand anything at all about science, as it is actually practiced.

The bigger problem is that they think science is something it has never been and never will be – a source of reliable truth statements, neatly described in papers anyone can understand just from the abstract, without any training, or background reading, or further reading to fill in the blanks in the reader’s understanding
.
This is the crux of the problem. Scientists must “interpret” science (as priests once translated latin scriptures) for the simple minded masses. It don’t work that way no more. Scientific principles are for defending on their merits, not because they are written in code.
.
Incidentally, I want to see someone who’s a climate believer condemn Tim Flannery or Al Gore or other alarmists for their egregious untruths. It never fucking happens. They love the hysteria that others stir up.

158. CL: I’m not really disputing your point. I didn’t say I approve of the reporting, and half expect that misuse of cars to visit brothels/girlfriends has been overlooked by the media many a time in the past.

But still – why take the risk of using a ministerial car for any purpose that the media would even be tempted to report. Can’t he afford a taxi?

159. Fleeced says:

“While I would agree there was no need for him to resign for this reason…”

As a libertarian, I’m all for people’s right to do whatever they want, but really… of course he should resign. If a minister campaigning on family values has an affair, the people have a right to know. The fact that he was going to a gay club is arguably of no difference – though perhaps a worse experience from the perspective of his family – but seeing you all trip over yourselves to show how tolerant you are is rather amusing.

My guess is that the club had a reputation for high class clientele, so they sat outside that club with a camera, hoping to catch anyone they could. A trawling expedition. that’s my guess.

161. C.L. says:

Dave, they would have been tipped off that he was a regular. Fleeced, I generally don’t go out of my way to show off “tolerance” for homosexuals. If anything, I think they’re mollycoddled and contrivedly lionised. Some of the gay lobby’s more ugly pleaders deserve to be hammered without hesitation.

But I can’t say I approve of a ministerial car journey being used so blatantly as the concocted pretext to run a yellow press sex scandal about a bloke going to a gay sauna. His wife will be destroyed by it and his children will be pathologically harmed.

Like I said, if he’d misused the car to pick up his son from football training, Channel 7 wouldn’t have bothered running a story.

Like I said, if he’d misused the car to pick up his son from football training, Channel 7 wouldn’t have bothered running a story.
.
exactly.
It’s homophobia from Channel 7.

163. Fleeced says:

I agree the car thing was trivial, and shouldn’t have been the crux of the story. But I don’t think this was homophobia on the part of channel 7, as much as the need to defend oneself against accusations of the same.

They should have the balls to say that Mr Family man has been cheating on his family and visiting a gay club. He should resign for that – though not because there’s anything wrong with being gay (or bisexual, or whatever), and not for the car either.

164. C.L. says:

London unveils its official mascots for the 2012 Olympics – to much derision.

The snide comments range from “mutant Teletubbies” to “two parts-Pokemon to one-part lava lamp” and “1970s Dr Who monsters”. They have been described by others as “sinister” and “creepy”.

Sounds like a description of the outgoing government.

165. Fleeced says:

lol… I was thinking the one on the right looked particularly like a bad Dr Who monstor – then I realised why… they resemble Kang and Kodos – the one-eyed aliens from the simpsons: http://www.hondosbar.com/images/Kang__Kodos.gif

166. Fleeced says:

I think the new government over there should say, “Nope – we’re re-doing it… let’s not be remembered this way”

Then again – does anyone remember the mascots anyway?

But I don’t think this was homophobia on the part of channel 7, as much as the need to defend oneself against accusations of the same.
.
.
Mr Family man has been cheating on his family and visiting a gay club.
.
Has he really run on a platform of family values? He’s Labor; “family values” is not really their thing.

168. Tillman says:

I generally don’t go out of my way to show off “tolerance” for homosexuals. If anything, I think they’re mollycoddled and contrivedly lionised. Some of the gay lobby’s more ugly pleaders deserve to be hammered without hesitation.

Yes CL!!! GIve those homos a good solid manly pounding!!! You need to get right on top of them!! Show them who’s boss.

But I don’t think this was homophobia on the part of channel 7, as much as the need to defend oneself against accusations of the same.
.
Fleeced, why would I need to defend myself against accusations of homophobia?

170. Fleeced says:

I never said you did dd, I was referring to Ch7 – that their focus on the use of the car (which was trivial).

171. JC says:

Homer says:

Forrest a pity the $A was falling well after the policy was announced. Doofus if market were immediately reactive I’d be a billionaire and so would everyone else. Now go away. Have you thought about how much a day you’d want not to post here, Homes? 172. C.L. says: Thanks for the 1970s Benny Hill schtich, Tillman. Complete with comedy-compensating exclamation marks!!! You bring your usual air of seriousness to this – as to all other subjects. (The Jews etc). 173. FDB, I don’t know if he speaks English. If you read it, there is a good reason to drop the SSM. “Forrest a pity the$A was falling well after the policy was announced”

Yes, and it continues to do so. Your point being?

174. BirdLab says:

I love that Agape story:

“A former cult member has told The Advertiser that church members are brainwashed into believing that life on Earth will end after microchips are implanted into everyone by the end of 2012.”

Absolutely Birdian.

175. FB – I’ll put it anoither way – so you’re saying this guy is a dumbarse and he is misinterpreting the results from experiments he describes?

You say this on what authority?

“Theory the sun is made of iron”

That’s not what he says. Talk about confirmation bias.

176. jtfsoon says:

Fleeced, you’re being silly and partisan.

According to the article in the SMH, Campbell drove himself. So there was no misuse of the car.

You’re saying a Minister for resign for adultery? gee why stop there? Ministers should resign for gluttony, lust and telling lies too

177. jtfsoon says:

Bob Ellis – wife swapping is better than divorce

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2895613.htm

The wife-swapping parties of the 1950s and ’60s (so well evoked in The Ice Storm) seem wiser now than they did then and the destructive, child-smashing divorces of today a moronic alternative.

178. FDB says:

Mark, since 1972 this guy has been pushing the theory that the sun is made predominately of iron.

179. FDB,

He seems to have compiled a bit of experimental data that infer he has evev a small contribution to make to the SSM. (Not you tube clips like you know who). His idea seems to be at least partially valid.

180. “Dr. Manuel has published more than 100 papers, including several book chapters, presented over 100 papers at scientific meetings, including international conferences in Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, the U.S.A., the U.S.S.R., and Wales, organized an ACS symposium with the late Professor Glenn T. Seaborg, and edited the proceedings, “Origin of Elements in the Solar System: Implications of Post-1957 Observations”.”

Seaborg has a good reputation FDB.

181. dover_beach says:

The fact that more work needs to be done is not of itself grounds for dismissing this finding that heat did in fact increase over the total period in question.

Steve from B, who has denied this? Anyone following the issue of ocean heat content has recognised that the oceans have warmed over the last thirty years. Further, I, following Pielke Sr, have argued that it is a better climate metric than global average temperature. The problem, however, is that over the last six years no appreciable warming of the ocean has been recorded even though AGW theory suggests that the warming should be continuing. Where is this ‘missing’ heat? In the deep oceans (below 700m)? Maybe, but as Pielke Sr argues, if it has been transported to the deep ocean its passage through the first 700m should have been recorded, it hasn’t, which suggests that rather than being deposited in the deep oceans it has escaped into the atmosphere and is thus lost to space. There is an excellent recent discussion betweem Trenberth, Spencer, Willis and Pielke Sr through April here:

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/04/

Regardless of the source of year-to-year variations in the warming rate, says Trenberth, the slowdown in warming near the ocean’s surface since 2003 is inconsistent with satellite measurements that suggest Earth’s heat absorption increased during that time frame.

Not according to Spencer:

The plot that is included in Kevin Trenberth’s most recent post on Roger Pielke, Sr.’s blog actually proves the point I have been making: The trend in the imbalance in the Earth’s radiation budget as measured by the CERES instrument of NASA’s Terra satellite that has been building since about 2000 is primarily in the reflected solar (shortwave, or SW, or RSW) component, not the emitted infrared (longwave, or LW) component.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/04/earths-missing-energy-trenberths-plot-proves-my-point/

182. dover_beach says:

The bigger problem is that they think science is something it has never been and never will be – a source of reliable truth statements, neatly described in papers anyone can understand just from the abstract, without any training, or background reading, or further reading to fill in the blanks in the reader’s understanding.

In short, you “should’ve remembered” that climate skeptics by and large do not understand anything at all about science, as it is actually practiced.

Rubbish. We heard for years the refrain, “the science is settled”, made against anyone that dared qualify the claims made on behalf of AGW and yet you’re now telling us that the truth statements made by scientists are provisional and qualified, unbelievable.

183. C.L. says:

Bolt reports that the Campbell sting was a personal vendetta of Channel 7 reporter Adam Walters. There was no misuse of the car. He drove himself – as the rules allow. Walters has to be fired.

184. jtfsoon says:

A left wing columnist from The Nation (probably redundant description) comes out in favour of Rand Paul

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127008636

185. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Forrest and Marky markets do not take over a week to digest a policy and yes usually do react very soon after the announcement.

good to see your knowledge of markets is up to standard.

186. Steve Edney says:

Mark, since 1972 this guy has been pushing the theory that the sun is made predominately of iron.

This is not a reason to reject his research however. There is any number of good scientists who hold loopy views in one area while being solid researchers otherwise. Newton is the classic example.

This guy is another example. One of the leading researchers in his field – solar plasma physics. Also a leading UFOlogist who thinks he has a pice of UFO metal.

187. Rococo Liberal says:

SO if Campbell did nothing wrong, why did he resign? To stop the media from publicising his romps with the friends of Dorothy? Doesn’t seem to have done much good then does it?

188. JC says:

Actually, Homer I reckon you would have been the worst… in fact the very worst market economist in the southern hemisphere. That’s why I think you have serious trouble understanding that market’s aren’t perfect.

Basic material stocks started falling the friday it was rumored they were going to steal the money from the firms, you morn.

SO if Campbell did nothing wrong, why did he resign?
.
It’s the quickest way to get a scandal off the front page.

190. “markets do not take over a week to digest a policy and yes usually do react very soon after the announcement.

good to see your knowledge of markets is up to standard.”

They dropped before on rumour. They dropped sharply on the announcement. They continue to drop as the worst fears are beginning to materialise.

So you’re still sticking to an extreme EMH. Right. It will be fun next week when you denounce Rolls and Ross as “cackptos”.

191. Evidence for the Bird thesis on earthquakes:

http://www.scientificexploration.org/journal/jse_04_2_warwick.pdf

192. jtfsoon says:

are you trying to get back in Bird’s good books mark?

193. No, it’s just a surprise that science has some support of the idea, Bird just doesn’t know where to look for credible evidence.

194. JC says:

JULIA Gillard has rejected suggestions the government’s planned resources super profits tax is responsible for a sharp drop in the value of the Australian dollar.

The Aussie has traded as low as $US80.73 this morning, continuing a dramatic nosedive from its May high of US92.35c. And the Australian share market has taken another hammering today, falling more than 2 per cent on a continuation of global jitters that saw heavy falls in Europe and the US overnight. “We are seeing a flight to the US currency,” the Deputy Prime Minister told the Nine Network when asked whether the proposed 40 per cent tax was responsible for the dollar’s slide. “The euro is falling dramatically, we are seeing instability in Greece and what we know from the global financial crisis is when you get instability somewhere it feeds around the world.” Bullshit. We have now fallen close to 10% against the Euro. So if Gillard and Charlie Rudd were honest they would be telling us that we’re seeing a flight from the Aussie into the Euro. The Euro of course is the weakest currency around. They shouldn’t be allowed to lie like that. The fact that we’ve fallen against the Euro means there is capital flight away from Rudd’s Bolivarian revolution. 195. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says: twits, no-one saying markets are perfect however switch on your bloomberg and put on the time of the announcement and then look at the$A now go to commodities and the $A. That is called correlation. That is why no-one in the market is reinforcing your idiocy. all that is happening now is a mini-version of the GFC. It happens like that when expectations of commodities are for them to fall. 196. jtfsoon says: this one’s for steve Nick Gruen has a new post out on Education 2.0 http://clubtroppo.com.au/2010/05/20/education-2-0/ 197. “twits, no-one saying markets are perfect however switch on your bloomberg and put on the time of the announcement and then look at the$A now go to commodities and the $A. That is called correlation.” http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/ Convert 1 AUD to MY ringgits and look at the graph. Commodity prices have fallen only sinc emY 5 have they? Still spruiking the AUD is driven entirely by commodity prices hey Homes? Muppet. 198. C.L. says: “…all that is happening now is a mini-version of the GFC.” Oh, how cute. A mini GFC! Time for Rudd to build some midget toilets and burn down some dog houses! 199. lol, since May 5. A bout of Homeritis due to a “stucteal helath defecit”, no doubt. 200. JC says: CL What Homer is saying is the the Bolivarian tax acts as a tailwind to commodity based equities while the mini-GFC acts as a headwind with the headwind beating the tailwind and hence why the economy is being crippled. He got that from his corridor of power walk. Che Swandive told him. 201. JC says: That’s right… I think we now need some mini toilets and mini gyms. This time round you have to be very short to get in. 202. C.L. says: Lambert will be pleased. Finally, he’ll be the big man in the Kensington tuckshop. 203. This guy might be a great economist but this article is just shit: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/fear-campaign-on-resources-tax-is-a-furphy-20100520-vnp5.html “With global economic growth, especially in China, the demand for resources increases exponentially. There will come a time when production cannot keep pace with demand. This is now happening. When market prices diverge from production costs in this way, the competitive model breaks down. It is a case of market failure, and government intervention is required. A resource rent tax is the prescribed remedy.” “By imposing a resource rent tax, Australia is right to show leadership as the major resource exporter. If they are governed rationally, other jurisdictions will follow suit. The miners should quell their raucous opposition. Australia should now join together with other resource-exporting countries to ensure that supernormal resource revenues are invested wisely for the future of the planet.” 204. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says: Marky anytime you wish to put up a graph of commodities and the$A then I will be pleased.

However you will merely see why the market is reacting.

Interesting that this has been widely written about, plenty of graphs plenty of currency strategists have given the reasons but all this has passed by the crackpots.

more evidence of them living in Lah Lah land.

Perkins on the ball as usual and Marky’s arguments as brilliant as usual

Only here can they assert black is white

205. “Perkins on the ball as usual”

Increasing profit margins (to which he has wrong, they’ve fallen recently) are a sign of “market failure” are they?

206. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

have a good think about what he said Mark and then have a bex

208. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

I have .

A hint there a two major areas of economics!

209. “Global financial imbalances, which arise due to some countries’ chronic trade deficits, were a factor leading to the global financial crisis. As resource prices increase, these imbalances will intensify. The International Energy Agency projections to 2050 show OPEC oil revenues rising to tens of trillions of dollars. For many oil exporters, the question of a tax does not arise because the oil companies are state-owned.”

Right. So the Dutch disease caught by Australia and the Saudis from the Chinese caused the US mortgage market to be in arrears on a grand scale?

Perkins might be top shit. He really should have sent this article to a friend for a bit of constructive criticism though.

210. jtfsoon says:

No Homer, there is only one.

Macroeconomics should be derivable from micro, otherwise it is Keynesian handwaving bunk.

211. Homer,

Do you or do you not believe, or have you ever believed that increasing profit margins are a sign of market failure, and do you or do you not also or have you ever believed that increasing export prices for Australia causes US mortgage holders to suffer from financial distress?

212. dover_beach says:

Interesting that this has been widely written about, plenty of graphs plenty of currency strategists have given the reasons but all this has passed by the crackpots.

Any links to these ubiquitous graphs?

213. Butterfield, Bloomfield & Bishop says:

Mark for a start it isn’t the Dutch disease.
no Staman that is why you and the rest of the crackpots got the answer to the GFC so wrong.

gosh increasing porit margins a sign of market failure.

of course it is. Why can they last so long at high levels.

Snoopy they have actually been in the paper!

214. “gosh increasing porit margins a sign of market failure.

of course it is. Why can they last so long at high levels.”

Ever seen a ubiquitous graph of mineral lease growth? Ever stopped to think that BHP has financial and entrepreneurial economies of scale and entrpreneurial networks, or that they are knowledge captial intensive firm – just like a bank?

215. “Mark for a start it isn’t the Dutch disease.”

The WTF is he bleating about?

216. then, LOL

217. Steve Edney says:
218. jtfsoon says:

it’s true

I was lost but now am found. I was blind but now I see.

219. “Homer,

Do you or do you not believe, or have you ever believed that increasing profit margins are a sign of market failure, and do you or do you not also or have you ever believed that increasing export prices for Australia causes US mortgage holders to suffer from financial distress?”

Well?

220. BirdLab says:

Nice work over there, Edney.

221. dover_beach says:

Snoopy they have actually been in the paper!

Are you incapable of ever providing a link? I’ve recently come to the conclusion that you’re a taxi driver who’s erratic commentary, incoherence, etc. is partly due to your commenting on this site from a blackberry while driving.

222. Slate reports that Rand Paul gets off to a dubious start. (It sounds like he has a touch of the Tony Abbott’s about him):

“Maddow spent about 20 minutes last night quizzing Paul about his views on the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and he and the Republican Party have spent the last 24 hours cleaning up the mess. Paul said he believed that the federal government should not tell private businesses whether they could discriminate. He hated racism as much as anyone, he said, but believes that businesses that discriminate should be forced to change through private action: speaking out, boycotts, and the like.

As a practical matter, that ignores history and the human behavior of the time. But as a political matter, this just isn’t something a candidate says out loud—even if he believes it. At worst, it makes him seem to take racism lightly, and at best, it’s distracting. Before lunch, Paul had put out a statement that he would not support the repeal of the law.”

http://www.slate.com/id/2254489/

223. Michael Sutcliffe says:

Nice one from the mysterious Banksy:

I need someone to protect me from all the measures they take in order to protect me. -Banksy, street artist (b. 1974)

224. C.L. says:

Channel 7 plays the predictable family man ‘hypocrite’ card to excuse its destruction of David Campbell – which was, in fact, a personal vendetta of one of its scumbag reporters.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/21/2906352.htm?section=justin

225. C.L. says:

How hilarious. Harry Reid calls the president a “light-skinned Negro” and the Vice-President says his now boss is “clean and articulate” (you know, unlike most spooks) and the media run after Rand Paul.

226. JC says:

I think that he is a public figure and we’ve got a right to know.

The reverse of that would be to censure our right to know about our public officials therefore detrimental to free and open speech.

There is also the issue of morality and the fact is that the dude was actually acting like a scumbag.

He is married and has a family so if he’s breaking his marriage agreement i would like to know as that would offer more information in terms of what sort of person we’re dealing with.

Scumbaggery by our public officials should always be allowed on the public record.

have a good think about what he said Mark and then have a bex
.
Homer these comments where you retort by telling someone to go away and “think hard”, are useless. You could cut your comment expenditure by 20 percent by just omitting these alone.

228. JC says:

This sort of story leads back to arseholes like Elliot Spitzer the NY governor that was forced to resign because he bought hookers.

The turd used to go after other people and take them to trial for buying hookers, so it was good that his own morality was publicly exposed and he was forced to resign as a hypocrite douchebag. Privacy laws etc. would most probably prevent that sort of thing.

229. JC says:

230. sdfc says:

Jason perhaps you can let me know how microeonomic theory decribes the the economy and financial markets better than Keynes.

231. C.L. says:

I don’t agree, JC. We don’t want journos stalking politicians as part of an endless morals campaign under the pretext of ensuring they’re not ‘hypocrites.’ (As if journalists are the ones to judge that of all things). Provided politicians are not misusing public monies or jeopardising national security, their private lives should be off limits. General Eisenhower had a mistress during the war but it would have been insane to sack him as a hypocrite for that reason.

232. pedro says:

“Jason perhaps you can let me know how microeonomic theory decribes the the economy and financial markets better than Keynes.”

Obviously it doesn’t, but you are of course begging the question Jason posed.

233. pedro says:

“I don’t agree, JC. We don’t want journos stalking politicians as part of an endless morals campaign under the pretext of ensuring they’re not ‘hypocrites.”

Exactly. That’s the church’s rice-bowl! 😉

We don’t want journos stalking politicians as part of an endless morals campaign under the pretext of ensuring they’re not ‘hypocrites.’
.
Indeed.
The whole celebrity voyeurism industry in general is a sickness and really needs to be stamped out. Successful people’s personal lives should not be the playthings of the gutter press. Success and power in a democracy should not mean that you forfeit your personal rights.

235. C.L. says:

The “church” is running a morals campaign, Pedro?

Perhaps you could point me to its latest ads, street demos, pamphlets, candidates for office etc.

236. C.L. says:

Hawke was bonking D’alpuget from 1988 onwards – as if anyone cared.

237. JC says:

And in reality no one much cares about this dude being exposed and in fact the public venom from what I can tell is being focused on the “journo”.

The public should be given far more credit in being able to determine the good and lousy shit that comes out.

I’m not sure how you legislate for this sort of thing. You can’t.

238. C.L. says:

The public should be given far more credit in being able to determine the good and lousy shit that comes out.

I agree with that. But I’m not sure a man’s children deserve the humiliation of their father being exposed as a mustachioed understudy of the Village People just for the amusement of the Channel 7 canteen.

239. Michael Sutcliffe says:

Hawke was bonking D’alpuget from 1988 onwards – as if anyone cared.

And many more, to the knowledge of a wife who turned a blind eye and kept her mouth shut for his sake.

240. C.L. says:

Today’s Rudd government Friday news dump:

Penny Wong’s new water charges regulations.

Irrigators have slammed the federal government’s new water charges regulations – and the fact Water Minister Penny Wong released them late on Friday…

Naturally, all stakeholders agree that she’s bungled the whole thing.

241. BirdLab says:

“Perhaps you could point me to its latest ads, street demos, pamphlets, candidates for office etc.”

Actually CL, I thought it was called the Catechism.