Kesten Green forecasting, that is. We had a fascinating presentation today at lunch by Dr Kesten Green, a world authority on forecasting technique. This is how his presentation was advertised within the School:
Title: Are global warming forecasts scientific? Evidence from a forecasting audit and a validation study
With J. S. Armstrong, I conducted a systematic analysis of the processes used by those who make alarming forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming. We found that the processes violated basic scientific procedures such as full disclosure of data and methods, assessment of reasonable alternative hypotheses, reporting of potential conflicts of interest, and ensuring that conclusions do not go beyond the findings. The processes also violate principles of scientific forecasting by using methods that have not been empirically validated and by making dramatic forecasts when there is great uncertainty about the situation.
With Armstrong and W. Soon, I investigated whether long-term prediction of global mean temperatures is possible by testing a naïve ‘no change’ benchmark model. We found that the mean absolute error of 108 50-year-ahead forecasts from 1900 to 2007, for example, was 0.24°C. We then conducted validation tests of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s projection of cumulative warming of 0.03°C per year. We found that the IPCC forecast absolute errors were 6.8 times larger than the naïve benchmark errors for horizons 41 through 50, and 12.6 times larger for horizons 91 through 100.
If there is time, I will describe ongoing research on forecasting the persuasiveness and outcomes of the global warming alarmist movement.
It may also be worth looking at his background and personal history. If the global warming issue were about reasoned discussion and open debate, Dr Green would be amongst the first whose views would be called upon:
Dr Kesten Green, International Graduate School of Business and Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science, University of South Australia. Dr Green is an international recognized expert on forecasting. He is a Director of the International Institute of Forecasters and is co-owner and co-director of the Forecasting Principles public service Internet site (ForPrin.com), the leading online resource for scientific forecasting.
Dr Green has developed two new forecasting methods that have led to improvements in predicting the decisions people make in conflicts such as occur in business competition, supply chains, mergers and acquisitions, between customers and businesses, and in warfare.
Dr Green has also conducted research on forecasting for public policy making, including climate forecasting. He has established the PublicPolicyForecasting.com Internet pages to encourage a scientific approach, and to disseminate findings.
Dr Green’s research findings have been published in the International Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Interfaces, and the International Journal of Business. His research has been covered in the Australian Financial Review, the London Financial Times, the New Yorker, the Washington Times, and the Wall Street Journal.
He has advised the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, the U.S. Department of Defense (The Pentagon), the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the National Security Agency (NSA), and more than 50 other business and government clients.
If you are interested in following his work, his website is found here. As an interesting aside, if you type the word “forecasting” into google, you get 39 million hits of which his is the third.