The betting market (I tend to look at Centrebet, but there are others) was quiet for a long time. Gillard was at $2.00 and Any other candidate was at $1.80 until about a week ago. I took the view that while there was a lot of talk about the ALP leadership there was no new information. The last week or so has seen new information. Gillard is now $2.32 to $1.60 for Any other candidate.
What is particularly interesting is that last night Rudd overtook Gillard in the more general market. He is $2.15 to her $2.32. This hasn’t happened before. To my mind this suggests that talk about a third candidate to come in as a compromise isn’t being priced by the market.