State of the Market

The betting market (I tend to look at Centrebet, but there are others) was quiet for a long time. Gillard was at $2.00 and Any other candidate was at $1.80 until about a week ago. I took the view that while there was a lot of talk about the ALP leadership there was no new information. The last week or so has seen new information. Gillard is now $2.32 to $1.60 for Any other candidate.

What is particularly interesting is that last night Rudd overtook Gillard in the more general market. He is $2.15 to her $2.32. This hasn’t happened before. To my mind this suggests that talk about a third candidate to come in as a compromise isn’t being priced by the market.

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19 Responses to State of the Market

  1. Rabz

    Looks like my laybore pardy mole and his source were spot on (Herald Sun – can’t link to it):

    KEVNI Ruff’s supporters say Juliar Dullard is just one more mistake away from facing a possible leadership showdown.

    But they concede that Mr Ruff does not have enough votes to win a ballot if it were held now.

    Yep, just wait until another budget triumph from the world’s greatest idiot, kevni and you’re a shoo in…

  2. Mike of Marion

    Crean not regurgitated in the Markets? Too old!!

  3. Rabz

    Crean not regurgitated in the Markets…

    Any candidate not listed – lowest odds after ruff and dullard.

  4. James of the Glen

    The frightening thing about this table is Kate Ellis or Nicola Roxon even appearing in the hundreds of dollars…))

  5. Forge

    Also unlisted is Martin Ferguson. I think he is an outstanding option given the limited set. Is there a reason he doesn’t get more attention regarding leadership?

  6. KC

    Simon Crean at the Others Not Listed quote must be starting to look good.

    Bit of grey hair. Not Kevin Rudd (etc.)

  7. .

    My money is on Crean.

    Time for me to put my money where my mouth is.

  8. papachango

    why do they need the qualifier (ALP) after each name on the list of potential ‘Federal ALP leaders at the next election’?
    That would seem bleeding obvious to me – or are there some odds for Bob Brown (Greens), Rob Oakeshott (Ind.) or Peter Slipper (traitor)

  9. What’s much more interesting is the $7 for any candidate not listed. That is astonishingly short.

  10. Skuter

    OT, but has anyone noticed this furphy that keeps getting put forth by Simon Crean (latest was on sky news yesterday):

    more than 700 000 jobs ‘created’ during the last four years (i.e. Rudd/Gillard Government)
    vs
    less than 600 000 jobs ‘created’ during last four years of the Howard government.

    Leaving aside the fact that governments don’t directly create many jobs in a market economy, Ricardian ambivalence nailed this fabrication some time ago. The correct figure for the Howard government is more than 1.1 million jobs over their last four years. Peter van Onselen put this to Craig Emerson last night (also on sky) and he just brushed it off.

    Perhaps this is worthy of a post in its own right Sinc?

  11. dakingisdead

    My money would be on Crean after Rudd.

    Old enough to retire after/at the next election. He’d probably take one for the party and for his superannuation.

    Then is leaves room for the Short one to step up in Opposition and try to build a bit of trust and credibility before the following election.

    Rudd simply because there is no way he is gonna go away without having the PMship and being tossed out by the people.

  12. .

    I better get down to the TAB and put my money where my mouth is. Crean will be the next PM. Or I shall feel the burn.

  13. GrazingGoat66

    Terrifying thing about this table is that the intellectual monolith Tanya Plibersek isn’t on the list so that makes her a $7.00 chance……

  14. AD

    How about Penny Wong ?????????

  15. brc

    I really do wonder how Swanny feels, being deputy PM and treasurer and not ever even mentioned as a potential candidate for the top job. I can’t think of any parliament anywhere where the treasurer and deputy wasn’t in line for the top job if the leader was a bit shaky. I mean, that’s how Gillard got in, as did Keating, as did Howard (1st go), as did Hewson – and on and on it goes. Even the Poms have form in putting the Exchequer up for the top job when the main man is leaving.

    I suppose Swanny probably feels blessed that his faction has promoted him way above his paygrade, he’s like a skinny nerd walking around with a supermodel, punching several leagues above his weight division.

  16. Sinclair Davidson

    Mrs D asked me last night, and I quote, ‘Will DC still be treasurer if Rudd returns?’

  17. Sleetmute

    Rudd now at 1.90 and Gillard at 2.60.

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