Almost there but not quite

I have an article at The Drum on the Republican primaries which argues that Mitt Romney has not quite taken a winning break on Santorum and the others but is almost there. To fail to take the nomination from the commanding position he now has would require a remarkable turn of events – this is politics, after all, so it could happen – but if things stay on course, he will have the delegates he needs by the time the convention begins in Tampa.

The article also looks at another question which is whether the Republicans made a mistake in deliberately prolonging the primary as they have. The uncertainty and the internal criticisms have had a debilitating effect on everyone. There is also almost no interest amongst Republicans in the process with voter turnout well down. However, even so, my concluding thought was that in the final analysis taking the long road home may end up working for the Republicans after all:

On balance it does seem to have worked well. The right candidate has emerged if the Republicans are interested in nominating the person most likely to win. The process has also been one in which Romney has been tested in every kind of circumstance a candidate might face. He has been toughened by the experience and will be better able to present the Republican side of things when he and Obama finally face each other in their debates and then in the election campaign overall.

This is, moreover, turning into a very winnable election for the Republicans. There will be the stacked media that will run interference for Obama, and incumbancy will count for something, but in the end the old question, are you better off today than you were four years ago will be difficult for Obama to fend off.

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23 Responses to Almost there but not quite

  1. Jim Rose

    steve,
    of those who think a long primary season is a bad idea, remember the free media exposure it gives to the winner. the TV debates seem to offset any funding edges and define many of the candidates.

    Obama would have been a far weaker candidate, debater and president if he had finished Clinton off sooner. Obama’s main qualification for president was running a long error-free campaign.

    the value of primaries as filters and vetting processes is not to be under-rated. Its greatest value is as a tough unforgiving training ground.

  2. JC

    one mention of Da IPA there and Steve has no direct connection.

  3. Ellen of Tasmania

    Do you really believe Romney will stop printing and spending??

    “First of all, I do not believe that the central banks around the world will ever, and I repeat ever, reduce their balance sheets. They’ve gone the path of money printing and once you choose that path you’re in it, and you have to print more money.

    If you start to print, it has the biggest impact. Then you print more – it has a lesser impact unless you increase the rate of money printing very significantly. And, the third money printing has even less impact. ” (Marc Faber)

  4. Jarrah

    Check out this article on the reasons why the primaries have gone as they have.

    http://motherjones.com/politics/2012/03/michael-steele-revenge-gop-primary?page=1

  5. daddy dave

    Let’s cast our memories back to the drawn out Clinton-Obama primary. Lots of Democrats were getting worried that the bruising contest was damaging their prospects in the presidential election, and that whoever emerged as the candidate would be too scarred to win.

    The primary process won’t hurt the Republicans one bit. It helps because the candidates calibrate to the issues of the day. For example, if Santorum becomes the nominee he will be far more ready for prime time than he was at the start of the primaries. Not endorsing Santorum – that’s just by way of example.

  6. JC

    Check out this article on the reasons why the primaries have gone as they have.

    You’re sending us to Mother Jones, Jazz. Are outta your mind? What insight could that leftwing rag offer?

    It’s like Greenslime Left Weekly reporting on liberal party politics and you thinking it was fair and balanced.

  7. Jarrah

    JC, if you’ve got nothing but ad hom, go away. Try dealing with arguments for once.

  8. .

    Really Jarrah, Mother Jones?

    Just tell us the gist if it is a good argument. Usually I prefer that anyway than doing homework.

  9. Jarrah

    daddy dave, the general thrust of that article I linked to is that the 2008 Democratic primaries and the 2012 Republican primaries are playing out very differently.

  10. Jarrah

    Dot, if you don’t care enough to read two pages, you don’t care enough for me to bother summarising it for you 🙂

  11. .

    Two page “summaries”? Jesus you must be getting good at this law thing!

  12. JC

    Jazz,

    FFS dude, Mother fucking Jones?

    look, I want a list of what you read as this shit has gone on for long enough. Dot and I are culling it.

  13. .

    Jarrah,

    I think what Steele did was good.

    They are so splintered that they can’t stop bleeding. I can easily envision the end of the Republican party as we know it.

    After they won a majority in the mid terms?

    The commednters at mother jones are like some Australian commentators who must had been sniffing glue “this is the end of the Liberal party!”

  14. Driftforge

    388/967 does not a primary win; certainly not on the first run.

    Unbound delegates remain just that, no matter how the MSM likes to apportion them.

  15. Simon

    Nah all attention is good attention when your running against a dud like Obama. Like it or not, good publicity or bad, the Republicans have not only stolen but claimed and held the media for the upcoming election. No one cares what Obama the monkey does their too busy looking and listening to organ grinders. The only question now is will they actually be more entertaining and gripping than the little curiosity?

  16. Cory Olsen

    To be honest I fear that OB will be returned to power after the next US election.

    MR is not the most inspiring of republican candidate, but hopefully he can garner enough of the protest vote against Obama to win office.

    Imagine what can be achieved with a republican president & congress in the United States and hopefully LNP in Autralia federally and in a majority of Aussie states too.

  17. Driftforge

    Oh… Romney won’t make things better. The U.S. doesn’t want to pay the price required to make things better.

    Romney at least is less likely to lash out and harm others because of it.

  18. Cory Olsen

    How so?

    Too much entrenched spending + entitlement mentality?

  19. Driftforge

    Also interesting to watch the very public overtures from the Romney camp to the Paul camp…

    And the simple response ‘We’ll we’d have to see a change in foreign policy.’

    Here’s the thing. A shift in foreign policy at the convention would win the general,

  20. Cory Olsen

    Romney with a Ron Paul VP candidate?

  21. Chris M

    Just to poke Steve’s hive here is an article outlining what a failure Romney was as governor…

  22. Driftforge

    It has been suggested, but I’m not sure that is what would occur. The more important thing for the Paul camp is the policy; its always been about the policy.

    Not saying it couldn’t happen, but I suspect that even if they were given the opportunity to select the VP, Ron Paul may not take it himself.

    Ron Paul has a very fine line to walk. A lot of Ron Paul supporters won’t vote Romney even if Ron Paul is the VP. They will still do a write in. That is the depth of distrust and disgust they have with the ‘establishment’.

    There is also the election after to consider. The Ron Paul movement that is election by election replacing the establishment with like minded people will probably peak in 2016, not 2012. So that will also be on the mind of those involved; achieving what they can this time without compromising 2016.

  23. Chris M

    And another on how the Youtube medium is hammering Romney…

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