In a rather rushed moment, I wrote that the Coalition should bring back Malcolm Turnbull as Leader because that change maximises the probability of a Rudd loss.
I was wrong. The Coalition’s best bet is to stick with Tony Abbott as Leader.
Despite much media attention on a 31 August election (helped I suspect by Rudd games and selective leaks to encourage such speculation) it seems more likely that the election will be in October, perhaps even November.
Don’t be surprised, however, if Rudd is yet again playing games by hosing down speculation of a 31 August election just to catch people out if he visits the Governor General this Sunday. (Rudd thinks he is smart by playing games on election dates. In reality he is a two-year old wanting attention).
As I have written too many times, Rudd’s ego and hubris is such that he really does believe that more people will vote Labor if he can go on ‘governing’ for longer. That is a fatal (for Rudd) miscalculation.
I have too many friends and acquaintances who are Labor supporters and who seem to despise Kevin Rudd. They claim that they will vote Coalition if Turnbull is Leader. I think they are lying. No rusted on Labor supporter will vote Coalition no matter how bad is the Labor leader and how wonderful (from their perspective) is the Liberal leader.
Julian Burnside is exhibit A on that score. He says that he will support any asylum seeker policy from Labor, no matter how harsh and cruel, as long as it helps keep Labor in power. At least we know how Burnside and his ilk stand. They will vote Labor until hell freezes over.