Once again the speculation is rife – Kevin Rudd will be visiting the GG at some stage over the next 36 hours or so to call an election for September 7. But countering that is the G20 meeting. I suspect nobody really knows and we’ll have to live with ‘speculation is rife’ stories right up until the tv cameras catch Rudd driving through the gates at Yarralumla.
In the meantime, to establish some starting points – if an election is called – Centrebet have the Coalition at $1.28 (I estimate that to be a 74.04% chance of winning the election) and Sportsbet have the Coalition at $1.30 (I estimate that to be a 72.92% chance of winning the election).
I have been tracking daily prices for two weeks – I suspect the volatility that Rudd had hoped to generate is turning into a one-way bet. See Sam Maiden’s excellent piece in the Daily Telegraph (RTWT):
But politics is a highwire act. It’s always harder than it looks.
Rudd and Bowen know this already. But with friends like Senator Carr dishing out the advice on fringe benefits tax and the Reserve Bank issuing a siren’s song on the bank levy, the Prime Minister and his Treasurer are truly living in interesting times.