Election update III

Once again the speculation is rife – Kevin Rudd will be visiting the GG at some stage over the next 36 hours or so to call an election for September 7. But countering that is the G20 meeting. I suspect nobody really knows and we’ll have to live with ‘speculation is rife’ stories right up until the tv cameras catch Rudd driving through the gates at Yarralumla.

In the meantime, to establish some starting points – if an election is called – Centrebet have the Coalition at $1.28 (I estimate that to be a 74.04% chance of winning the election) and Sportsbet have the Coalition at $1.30 (I estimate that to be a 72.92% chance of winning the election).

I have been tracking daily prices for two weeks – I suspect the volatility that Rudd had hoped to generate is turning into a one-way bet. See Sam Maiden’s excellent piece in the Daily Telegraph (RTWT):

But politics is a highwire act. It’s always harder than it looks.

Rudd and Bowen know this already. But with friends like Senator Carr dishing out the advice on fringe benefits tax and the Reserve Bank issuing a siren’s song on the bank levy, the Prime Minister and his Treasurer are truly living in interesting times.

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69 Responses to Election update III

  1. A Lurker says:

    All of this election calling speculation is just playing into Rudd’s hands. Every day the nation is distracted by a possible election date/speaking with the GG, is a day that the Government isn’t being called to account on their numerous stuff-ups, plus the whole corruption thing which has gone suspiciously quiet in the media.

    Rudd could play this game for weeks or months yet.

    In my mind we should just ignore Rudd’s games and start badgering the media to put proper focus on all the things that Labor/Rudd wants us not to talk about.

  2. TimT says:

    What a load of bullshit this election speculation is. We *had* an election date. Rudd had a chance to cling on to a remaining vestige of dignity and trustworthiness and stick to that date. He didn’t.

    Every headline about election ‘speculation’, every time Rudd delays the announcement of an election will just make him look nastier and trickier. Whatever short-term or long-term electoral vantage he hopes to gain by delaying an election that *we already had a date on* has got to be so small as to be ultimately negligible. Call the bloody election, Kevin.

  3. Infidel Tiger says:

    Is Rudd’s health an issue? My god he’s put on some weight.

  4. Lucie says:

    I agree, Lurker. Not playing his petty game anymore. Keep focus on the issues – none of which favour Labor. Whether the day we can finally cast our vote is in one month or three.

  5. Bazza says:

    What was great about that article? All it did was make excuses for Swan.

  6. candy says:

    I think KRudd will go on for a couple more months in a manic way promising way too much that he can’t come through with.
    He’s even more desperate to stay PM than J. Gillard was.

  7. Sinclair Davidson says:

    Bazza – Sam is pointing to an interesting phenomenon – new Treasurers get ambushed by Treasury promoting bad ideas that predecessor Treasurers have vetoed.

  8. sunshine says:

    Rupert Murdoch has now said openly that he has been using his media empire to campaign against Labor specifically because the NBN will intefere (by competing) with his business. ! He has no shame. He is never humble.

  9. H B Bear says:

    If KRudd and Bowen are taking economic advice from hard left dinosaur Kim Il Carr they are even dumber than I thought they were,

    When the idea came up in the budget razor gang – the expenditure review committee – Rudd and Bowen were worried. They saw that the measure could blow up in their faces.

    But their manufacturing guru Kim Carr assured them that it would not be a problem. His judgment was wrong. Carr made a fundamental error about how one of key constituencies would respond to the shock decision.

    Next we’ll have Dougie Camerooon advising on micro-economic reform.

  10. H B Bear says:

    On what planet is Kim Il Carr a “manufacturing guru” anyway?

  11. Tom says:

    The need for a competent Canberra press gallery has never been so great. Instead we have hacks and barrackers rewriting press releases. As the only gallery journo with an actual contact book, Jabba the Hut will be essential viewing on tonight’s Nine TV news to glean any idea at all of what the Little Shit is really up to and the heat he’s getting from Sussex St.

  12. Tom says:

    Take another swig, Moonshine. You’re in the wrong gallaxy.

  13. Rafe says:

    What can you expect from an administration that does not even model the impact of a tax change on the industry that is most immediately hit.
    Not to mention all the middle-income ALP voters who turn out to be using the scheme! Remember that it was the bloated plutocrats who were supposed to be nailed by the change!!

  14. Borisgodunov says:

    We need guillotines and gulags for this criminal conspiracy,Abolish political criminal gangs ,they are Worse than Bikies ,do much more damage !

  15. derFRED says:

    Prediction: the fRaUDD sets out for Yarralumla, with a media convoy in tow, only to sail past Quentin’s front gates. “Ha Ha… tricked YA!” Fistbump selfie with son in comcar.

    Delay beyond September 14 and he’ll know what it feels like to be even more hated than the Ditched Witch.

  16. Tintarella di Luna says:

    In my mind we should just ignore Rudds games and start badgering the media to put proper focus on all the things that Labor/Rudd wants us not to talk about.

    There. Ignore the clerk and look at the Organisation that elevated the clerk and the clerk disappears

  17. Tintarella di Luna says:

    We need guillotines and gulags for this criminal conspiracy,Abolish political criminal gangs ,they are Worse than Bikies ,do much more damage !

    Boris they are Racketeers and we need a RICO Act to rid ourselves of them.

  18. Tintarella di Luna says:

    Is Rudd’s health an issue? My god he’s put on some weight.

    A friend who doesn’t vote Labor says he reminds her of a prissy-faced cross-dresser, a soft doughy body that Shapewear just won’t fix

  19. incoherent rambler says:

    Debt and deficit. TA et al need to avoid these words. Instead (for the benefit of the morons) they need to repeat :
    “The ALP’s debt means you will pay more tax.”
    “The ALP’s debt means you will receive fewer govt. benefits.”
    “The ALP’s debt is $25k per taxpayer. The ALP has borrowed $25k of your money.”

  20. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha says:

    If, as I suspect, Rudd will hang on to the top job as long as possible, when does Parliament resume? What’s the latest he can call an election without facing any painful questions in Parliament?

  21. David says:

    Sunshine you are delusional. Murdoch is a private individual who has built up a media empire which is also a private concern/business. He can support or not support whoever he likes and has no obligation other than to sell his papers/etc. If people don’t like them they don’t buy them and his business goes away. It’s called supply and demand and if you had the slightest knowledge of running a private business you would understand. As long as what you do is legal then the bottom line is the arbiter of whether your business succeeds or fails.

  22. johninoxley says:

    Boris you’re so right. A pity the ALP wouldnt take a leaf out of the bikie book and start killing each other.

  23. Dalai Lama says:

    Boris you’re so right. A pity the ALP wouldnt take a leaf out of the bikie book and start killing each other.

    Give them another term and you might be surprised what turns up.

  24. sunshine says:

    If you want a better press you cant remain silent about Rupert simply because he is on your side .

  25. JC says:

    Moonshine

    If murdoch wants to help out getting rid of this garbage of a government, then good, you blabbering moron.

  26. Armadillo says:

    Sinc, in relation to odds, I posted the following yesterday.

    The panel spoke in length on Insiders “Poll of Polls” about Rudd picking up 6 seats in QLD. I just can’t see it happening (if the markets are to be believed instead of the polling). I stand to be corrected, but I think Labor currently holds 6 seats in QLD. If the markets are correct right at this moment then they will win 6 seats. I can’t see where the “additional 6 seats” can be possibly be picked up? Again, according to the markets and not the polls. The only thing I can think of is that Sportsbet do not have all the QLD seats betting markets listed on their site.

    QLD Markets – the way I see it at the moment.

    Definate Seats – Coalition 12 – Labor – 4

    “Contestable” Seats (here’s who’s in front) – Coalition 6 – Labor 6

    Closest Seats (of the contestables):

    Longman – Coalition $1.75 – Labor $2.00
    Herbert – Coalition $1.67 – Labor $2.10
    Flynn – Coalition $1.60 – Labor $2.25
    Dawson – Coalition $1.65 – Labor $2.20
    Forde – Labor $1.75 – Coalition $1.95
    Brisbane – Labor $1.75 – Coalition $1.85

  27. Bruce says:

    This could be the all time fastest prediction to prove wrong, but I don’t think he’ll be seeing the GG today.

    Bowen has announced a budget update which is so appalling and abysmal that they cannot possibly be thinking of a Sept 7 election date. Rudd has announced taxes and tax increases. No politician would ever do this then go to a snap election.

    He will leave it as long as he possibly can so that the footy finals erase the tiny memory chips of his Vic 20 grade swinging voters.

  28. H B Bear says:

    Bowen and KRudd had to try and ambush Treasury into putting more rubbery figures out ahead of the pre-election economic statement. The consensus seems to be that Labor are trying to force KRudd to go early – clearly they don’t think they can keep this circus on the road for another 3 months.

    KRudd thinks he can – I suspect Hawker is telling him whatever he wants to hear. Three months ago Bruce Hawker was out of a job after delivering Queensland Labor straight into the Tarago.

  29. Quentin George says:

    Closest Seats (of the contestables):

    All of those seats are held by incumbents who won them in 2010, and generally MPs actually increase their vote the second time around (the so-called “sophomore surge”).

    I think Rudd’s chances may be over-exaggerated in Queensland, but you never know.

  30. Gab says:

    Once again the speculation is rife – Kevin Rudd will be visiting the GG at some stage over the next 36 hours or so to call an election for September 7.

    Oh, it’s on again? Rudd is Lucy just before she takes the ball away from Charlie Brown running up to kick the ball, after telling him for the umpteenth time to trust her, she won’t take the ball away. Charlie Brown is the electorate.

  31. Rococo Liberal says:

    It is very intersting that the slimeball ALP candidate for Kingsford Smith has got posters up everywhere in the electorate but so has the Liberal candidate.

    The ALP bloke has the stupid and annoyingly wrong catchphrase ‘One of us’ on his posters.

    The Coalition can pick up at leat 8 if not 10 seats in NSW, 3 in Victoria, 2 in Tasmania, 1 each in SA, WA and the NT. Kev will at best get 2 in Qld.

    He’s toast

  32. Armadillo says:

    and annoyingly wrong catchphrase ‘One of us’ on his posters

    Geez Roco, wouldn’t it be tempting to get made up a heap of little stickers with the faces of Obeid, McDonald and Thompson on them. You could then place them all over his election posters.

    Not trying to give you ideas or anything.

  33. stackja says:

    ALP candidate for Kingsford Smith ‘One of us’

    Labor Senator Matt Thistlethwaite

    Matt has extensive experience representing workers as a former lawyer and trade union official across a range of industries.

    Yes one of them!

  34. A key variable determining the date of the election is whether parliament must be recalled. In my opinion Rudd would not risk that as there are several members who have bailed out including Windsor and Oakeshott. He’d be unlikely to survive a no confidence motion, which would allow a baton change to Abbott who’d immediately call an election as Prime Minister.

    Antony Green discusses it here, but doesn’t address whether the scheduled return of parliament on 30 August can be moved back. If it can, my money is on October 12. If not, September is looking strong.

  35. Econocrat says:

    But countering that is the G20 meeting.

    According to the caretaker conventions, Rudd will have to send a senior official, or take Abbott along with him. Will trashing that be the his last insult to governance in Australia?

  36. Armadillo says:

    my money is on October 12.

    How much money would that be then? I’m offering 26/1 – interested?

  37. Mick Gold Coast QLD says:

    This is the deceitful little 2urd speaking about no election date yet just yesterday, quoted in Samuel J’s “Rudd playing games (again)” fred.

    Where did he go to school – was it Nambour Public School?

    He behaves like a sweaty little pre-pubescent 12 year old brat from Nambour Public scheming to keep the other kids in the dark as to whether marbles will be played at little lunch or big lunch, or not until next Wednesday. This is the country’s prime minister for Pete’s sake.

    Business cries out for certainty from him and still he plays bloody games.

  38. Mick Gold Coast QLD says:

    SportsBet seems to think they’re under starter’s instructions and has closed the book on likely dates.

  39. candy says:

    The news suggest he wants to be Kevin September 07 this time.

  40. delfino says:

    I’m with Lurker. In fact, I’m not going to be Lucy, Gab. Not playing ball. Don’t care what the little cane toad does. In fact, in about an hours time will tootle off to friend’s place and have a glass of bubbly or three, and we will no doubt discuss the whole thing over there. I still think I will be in the running for the bottle of moet! Cheers people. Oh by the way lovely weather up here in Cairns. Best thing I ever did was run away from Canberra’s loooong winters.

  41. Armadillo says:

    Hmm….be interesting to see what Sportsbet’s odds do as soon as it’s called – they know something we don’t. Labor’s odds “blew out” on Friday and Saturday.

  42. Armadillo says:

    The news suggest he wants to be Kevin September 07 this time.

    I knew Labor was scrapping for funds – they can use the same T-shirts from last time.

  43. Motelier says:

    It is very intersting that the slimeball ALP candidate for Kingsford Smith has got posters up everywhere in the electorate but so has the Liberal candidate.

    Here in Capricornia (Central Queensland) the Liebor pardy has had posters up for two weeks. The incumbent (Kirsten Livermore – Emily’s List) got the shits when TLS was stabbed and is now retiring at this election.

    I would not surprise me if King Kevni 2.0 goes to Bill Shortens MIL and goes for a 12 or 16 week election campaign.

  44. Mick Gold Coast QLD says:

    “I would not surprise me if King Kevni 2.0 goes to Bill Shortens MIL and goes for a 12 or 16 week election campaign.”

    Fifteen minutes ago the Tele said September 7, now it says merely September. The Australian doesn’t nominate a date and the Herald thinks we’re still in June.

    He said yesterday he intends going to Russia for the G20 (Sept 5 & 6) – maybe he is going for a post Sept 7 date. That’s got to be Sept 14 or he’s running up against the pre-grand final programs of the AFL.

    Perhaps he could have the Immediate Past President waddle her gigantic asks over to St Petersburg to display a substantial presence on his behalf?

  45. lotocoti says:

    Just on ABC Grandstand:
    Kevin Rudd is in a car.
    Somehow that doesn’t convey the same drama as the chair is against the wall or John has a long mustache.

  46. Bruce says:

    Oops. One hour and 12 minutes it took. My upthread prediction rivals Treasury estimates for accuracy:

    Mr Rudd – who is en route to the national capital in his official VIP plane – is expected to drive to Yarralumla to meet with Quentin Bryce shortly after 3pm on Sunday.

    Rudd can call the election for mid November on the calculations. The maximum is 68 days from the dissolution of Parliament. But won’t be that if he’s seeing Shorten’s ma-in-law this arvo.

  47. Toiling Mass says:

    I was miffed at the idea of September 7 – I wasn’t going to be in Sydney.

    I have the champers already put aside for the flabby little shites concession speech – although I would not be surprised to see him send someone else out to do that too, the clammy pawed pasty tumid flaccid little polyp.

    His self-indulgence will cost me tens of thousands of dollars in the years to come and I am in no mood to have the little creep deny that single meagre salutary pleasure of toasting his defeat with the sound of his unconsolable sobbing in the background.

  48. stackja says:

    simon benson @simonbenson
    Rudd will meet GG at 3.15pm

  49. stackja says:

    Media outside Government House waiting for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to meet Governor General Quentin Bryce.

  50. tomix says:

    was it Nambour Public School?
    think it was Eumundi State Primary – about 15 miles north – can’t see him keeping those
    marbles for long, though.

  51. stackja says:

    Media outside Government House waiting for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to meet Governor General Quentin Bryce. (AAP Image/Lukas Coch) Who is the reporter?

  52. stackja says:

    15:10
    Mr Rudd has arrived at Government House in Canberra to ask Governor-General Quentin Bryce for permission to call on September 7 election.

  53. Mick Gold Coast QLD says:

    “Media outside Government House waiting … (AAP Image/Lukas Coch) Who is the reporter?”

    Should I turn on the telly? (aka Does she have big tips?)

  54. stackja says:

    Should I turn on the telly? (aka Does she have big tips?)

    Long thick coat keeping tips covered!

  55. JC says:

    Who is the reporter?

    She’s kinda cute, you think? I can’t figure the pants thingis she’s wearing though. if they’re leather that really hot.

  56. Sinclair Davidson says:

    Laura Jeyes – she is a political reporter in the Canberra office.

  57. Motelier says:

    Should I turn on the telly? (aka Does she have big tips?)

    She might have dark roots

  58. stackja says:

    Laura Jeyes – she is a political reporter in the Canberra office.

    Thank you!

  59. Mick Gold Coast QLD says:

    “Long thick coat keeping tips covered!”

    Buggar!

  60. stackja says:

    15:10
    Mr Rudd has arrived at Government House in Canberra to ask Governor-General Quentin Bryce for permission to call on September 7 election.

    15 Minutes! What are doing?

  61. stackja says:

    15:25
    Mr Rudd has left Government House after a very short meeting with Ms Bryce.

  62. Toiling Mass says:

    7 September?

    Bastard!

  63. Andrew says:

    Katter party advertising on ABC24…lol

  64. Mick Gold Coast QLD says:

    “Laura Jeyes – she is a political reporter in the Canberra office.”

    What are you doing here Sinclair?

    Quite apart from the question of who’s shoveling the coal into the boiler to keep three relevant threads cranking while you’re wandering about outside Yarralumla, professors who write on the dismal science aren’t supposed to be distracted from the gravity of their grey existence by the sighting of reporterettes with big tips! 🙂

  65. kae says:

    Candy

    The news suggest he wants to be Kevin September 07 this time.

    He’ll be able to recycle the Kevin07 tees he has left over.

  66. Andrew says:

    September 7 officially confirmed by press release.

  67. candy says:

    He’ll be able to recycle the Kevin07 tees he has left over.

    Kae, he probably thinks it’s his ‘lucky number’ or a good vibe to have the 07 again.
    Don’t think so, though. Once was enough.

  68. kae says:

    Too right, Candy.

    Lightning striking twice and all that.

    (And Arma got the t-shirt recycling thing, too. It was also my first thought when I saw Kevin and 07 together. Again.)

  69. JohnA says:

    tomix
    #947146, posted on August 4, 2013 at 3:04 pm

    was it Nambour Public School?
    think it was Eumundi State Primary – about 15 miles north – can’t see him keeping those
    marbles for long, though.

    Oh? I thought he had already lost his marbles a long time ago.

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