Hot from the Fin:
Labor’s shock decision to recruit Peter Beattie as its candidate for the federal Queensland electorate of Forde appears to have backfired spectacularly, with the Coalition on track to win the seat in a landslide.
Forde is one of eight marginal seats polled by JWS Research, the results of which will be published exclusively in Saturday’s AFR Weekend.
The poll of four Labor marginal seats and four Coalition marginal seats around the country was conducted using the names of the respective major party candidates in each seat, ensuring maximum accuracy.
The poll shows that in Forde, in south-east Queensland, the incumbent Liberal-National Party Member Bert van Manen is thrashing the former Queensland premier on a two-party preferred basis by 60 per cent to 40 per cent.
This 10-percentage point lead represents a two-party swing of 8.4 per cent to the Coalition in Forde since the 2010 election.
Mr van Manen is beating Mr Beattie on the primary vote by 54 per cent to 33 per cent, while the Greens are on 4 per cent and 9 per cent are undecided.
The primary vote swing to Mr van Manen since the 2010 election is 9.9 per cent.
Mr Rudd announced Mr Beattie would stand in the first week of the campaign, pushing aside Labor’s preselected candidate Des Hardman.
Billed as a coup by Labor, it was hoped in the ALP that Mr Beattie would not only win Forde but drive up Labor’s vote across Queensland, where it needs to pick up at least six seats from the Coalition to have any chance of a victory on September 7.
But the eleventh-hour substitution may achieve the opposite.
The polls shows that Mr van Manen has a 49 per cent approval rating in Forde and a 19 per cent disapproval rating, giving him a net favourability rating of 30 per cent.
By contrast, Mr Beattie has a 35 per cent approval rating and a 51 per cent disapproval rating, giving him a net favourability rating of minus 16 per cent.
Similarly, in Forde, Mr Rudd has a net favourability rating of minus 18 per cent whereas Tony Abbott’s net favourability rating is just minus 1 per cent.
More than half of the Forde respondents, 51 per cent, believe Mr van Manen deserved re-election whereas only 34 per cent believe Mr Beattie deserves to be elected.
The poll was conducted on Thursday night. In all, the views of 4739 people were sampled across eight seats, including 568 voters in Forde.
The margin of error is 4.2 per cent.
Exclusive polling of eight marginal seats across NSW, Victoria and Queensland, out Saturday in AFR Weekend.
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!
The faceless men were at it again – when will Labor ever learn.
I want a report on the next exchange of pleasantries between Kevin and Peter (and also what they said to other people in private).
It’s like every little stunt they’ve tried has backfired on them. I’m starting to believe that this will be a landslide of epic proportions.
Anyone get the feeling that the ALP are somewhat disconnected from reality?
What’s Queenslander for suck shit?
Was it ever going to be any different? Really?
How’s Wayne Swan looking in Lilley?
He could be the next Opposition Leader!
Gotta love that karma bus.
It’s worse that that.. he’s dead IT.
And I wonder how many voters disliked Katy Perry’s attempt to sway votes?
Honestly, everything seems to be going the coalition’s way!
I really did think Krudds return would win it for the red team.
I should have had more faith in Australia. We may occasionally be short sighted dimwits but somehow we muddle through.
Watch the media mouths drop open after the next poll comes out.
The site of Beattie forcibly baring his aging fangs yet again, or doing his Uriah Heep performances, must grate with the electors of Forde. All the time knowing his incompetence, the god-awful mistresses, and hate of Rudd.
Cap’n Rudd can pick ’em.
All the pundits south of the border now have egg on their collective faces. We are not that stupid in QLD.
Greens on 4%, less than the margin of error? Oooh that must hurt.
Blame the tax which must not be named.
Dead cat, meet bounce.
I’ll go out on a limb and make a poll prediction. Kevin Rudd will join John Howard in the sitting Prime Minister being defeated club.
I hope the AEC hires security guards to escort Swan out of his office. Wouldn’t want it to be mysteriously trashed again like it was the last time he was turfed out.
This Labor “masterstroke” has took as long to unwind as the Carr “masterstoke”
What about the votes of traditional ALP voters among sports followers when they realise the role of the ALP in the drugs and crime beatup! What if people were talking about some major sporting events coming up near the election…:)
Just posted this in the open forum but thought it would be more appropriate to post it here with a discussion on polling:
Here’s some more news to cheer up your day, Nick Xenophon will preference the Coalition over Sarah Hanson Young in SA senate race, which unless a miracle occurs, kills off her career in the Senate – http://m.news.com.au/TopStories/pg/2/fi8757810.htm;jsessionid=150491F67BF4471CFAE1371CAC29E54A
The news is just getting better and better today.
Rudd has ‘transitioned’ from self proclaimed genius to fuck up fairy in just 12 days.
Fortunately for SHY, I hear McDonalds will be hiring for their new Tennant Creek store in 2018.
Aye aye. That he can.
Simply majestic. Now what’s in store for Carr?
Beautiful. Would love to see that useless tax-eater kicked to the kerb.
“And the ALP candidate for Forde is – Peter Beattie!!”
SHY might find buying real estate in Tennant Creek a tad difficult. There is an upsurge in gold exploration and mining there, and property prices have skyrocketed. Locals can’t afford to rent there anymore. There seems to be a belief TC is going to be like Kalgoorlie.
Dreamers.
Rudd misheard Hawker’s Qld candidate strategy.
Rudd thought he said we have a cunning stunt planned for Forde………Turns out Bruce really said we have a stunning C#@T on board.
Anything suffixed with ‘aye‘
Rudd certainly did bury the [metaphorical] hatchet, Dr F in gillard’s back.
Gotta love Labor values: I stab you, you stab me, we stab someone else etc etc etc
TC is going to be like Kalgoorlie?
When did Rudd announce that? I missed it.
And a big bye bye, loser to Goose Swansteen as well.
Morons.
Bruce Hawker appears to be the worst political strategist in Australia.
It’s ‘suck shit, maaaate.’ Pretty much the same as the rest of the nation…
She can always hitch up one of her organic hemp frocks in the scrub for shelter. Should be enough fabric to house a small tribe. The wet season could be interesting though.
Have you ever tried to polish a turd? Hawker can get you a good price on a 2nd hand Tarago though.
Yep. Combine this with the poll numbers coming out of the Western Sydney and Victorian marginals and it is looking very ugly.
Thank you, God. We are unworthy.
Thank you.
I imagine that in his next move, Krudd will ask Mark Latham to make a comeback. Can’t wait to hear them cuddling up to each other.
KRudd should follow up his genius Forde manouevre by elbowing aside one of the WA Labor candidates in favour of the formerly very popular Premier Brian Burke.
He could repeat the dose in NSW with Milton Orkopoulos.
That interview with handsome&Young is just delightful. The human trash hates it when they get challenged.
Now she may eve lose her seat. Wonderful news.
Good. Dipshots like her with an IQ less than 100 should be banned from public office.
Joan Kirner is short of a quid. She’ll be up for anything in Victoria.
SHY is going to get flogged like spare parts for a Skyline in Lakemba.
Wonder why the Greens haven’t wheeled out old Bob Brown for the campaign.
As a Queenslander, I can tell you that both Rudd and Beattie are just a tad on the nose up here.
This is like the quinella for us; we get to whack both of them.
Coz the Greens are so fucking stupid that they haven’t invented the wheel yet..
Beattie is the master sleazebag tactician. Rising to the top of QLD politics he knew the exact time to cut away before the financial mess he created became apparent, and the rumours of his affairs started to get substance. Leaving as a saint due to willingly handing power to the first female premier of QLD and one of the first in the nation, there were rumours that he might try federal politics but he clearly he wasn’t that sort of power-seeking guy and QLD was always enough for him. By shear coincidence, during the unpleasant demise of Anna Bligh, he just ‘scored(!)’ a comfortable gig in the US for a while (on the Australian public purse, of course), which just conveniently erased his memories from the public conscience. Miraculously, as the Labor Party looked a little trembly on the Federal scene, he re-emerged to save day.
I hope he gets f*cked over big time by the electorate and retires trying to cling to the Labor alumni while being rejected as a loser.
Is Gordy Nuttall still in the bin ? Would that preclude him for pre selection ? I spose you could only call him once a week between tea time and lights out.
Can’t blame Xenephon for dumping on Handson-Dung. I’d get tired of listening to the same speech day in, day out, year after year without end. I’d like to believe he thought ‘you want something to cry about? Here, I’ll give you something to cry about’.
Ahem – trifecta, Steve – cough, Goose Swansteen, cough…
Is Carmen Lawrence free?
I’M still waiting for the Grand Reconciliation between Rudd & Gillard! Whoever’s writing this soap had better hurry up, there isn’t much time to rescue sinking Labor! I’ll be happy if it is a massive Labor defeat, but it just seems too good to be true! And if something seems too goow to be true, it usually is…….
Unfortunately the Goose looks safe (for now).
Sportsbet Lilley ALP $1.35 LNP $2.85
Standby for the preselections of Keating and Whitlam as Rudd becomes increasingly desperate.
Comedy team re-incarnated? Pete and the Dud.
More tragic than comedic this time round.
Now he is just a back bencher with no prospect of even getting a shadow portfolio the good burghers of Lilley will wipe him like a dick on a whorehouse curtain in September. He should have bowed out like the rest.
Absolutely exquisite.
And it will just keep getting better, as the ground disappears below the Liar’s Party’s feet.
And they have no one but themselves to blame.
Apropos of not much, but does anybody else think that Kim Carr looks like a lobotomised Marko Ramius?
Maybe the alp could have given more consideration to a local issue before they dropped Brissie
boy Beattie in Beenleigh. Under – the – radar union, the evil AMIEU, appear to have been trying
to close Teys Bros. Beenleigh export meatworks down, costing 800 jobs at the plant.
SHY lost it on a radio program today:
Fuming Greens Senator Sarah Hanson hangs up on 2GB host Ben Fordham
They were talking about boat people and she said this:
Greens seem not to be in the same set of spacetime dimensions as the rest of us.
Those numbers for the Goose look pretty optimistic. Wayne Swansteen has always needed Green preferences to get him over the line. It looks safe to assume Green vote will be down from 12% to maybe 8 or 9% and you would expect the Liberals to pick up the bulk of the Family First preferences.
Might be worth an “investment”.
If I were Rudd, I’d more concerned about what’s going on in Moreton. It’s one he may actually lose.
Bolta seems to be having fun posting Beatty tweets :-0)))
Ah, the good people of Forde know that a leopard doesn’t change its spots.
Once Beattie always a Beattie–maybe they all have read the diaries link at Pickering Post?
Bwahahaha ababa anhaha. The public are smarter than Rudd and Beattie, combined.
Feeling so proud to be a Queenslander. As for Swan, those figures above are very optimistic. There has been a redistribution in his seat and I hear from the locals it is adios senor. Now if only the good Doctor Glassn can sign the certificate on Dr Death, the universe will have realigned itself.
Ellis has advice for Beattie up just now, sealing his fate!
H B Bear
#962328, posted on August 16, 2013 at 6:28 pm
Sportsbet Lilley ALP $1.35 LNP $2.85
Actually, they are pretty good odds. I’m gunna’ have $100 on that for the LNP, and we’ll see how we go.
ha. I’m not falling for that Ellis ruse again. Once bitten, twice traumatised.
I reckon Rudd roped in Beattie to ratfuck him!
“No one gets out alive”
Extract from The Krud Diaries: Day 23:
“Sigh. Though Darwin is a dump, at least I was able to mix with the troops again while I was there. Their devotion to me is so touching. When I am confirmed as el Presiden … prime minister I must be sure to organise a transfer for my brothers-in-arms out of that shit-hole to somewhere more civilised.
I shall have to organise it anyway after my brilliant policy masterstroke today.
For your information diary, I have decreed that the Northern Territory shall be a special economic zone, beginning in July, 2018. The Ratfuckers will own the place by Christmas, so I may as well grasp the nettle, put my shoulder to the wheel and make a command decision to pull the troops out lickety split.
As I said to you last night, I had faith that from the limitless depths of my intellect a policy masterpiece would float to the top, and wouldn’t you know it? I was having a poo in MY toilet and that is exactly what happened!
I immediately used my Kommando Kev pencil, a sheet of my monogrammed toilet paper and my free hand – I was taking a selfie at the time – to sketch out the details.
Of course, there were some tiresome queries about details from the few members of the press not yet in my thrall, but I bamboozled the fools with consummate ease.
… Sigh. I can hear some commotion from the back of the plane, diary. Apparently the ablution bucket allocated to the press corp is full and they have run out of Gladwrap. Serves the ingrates right.
Notes to self: Make sure I catch up with that Alannah Whats-her-name. I‘ve never met her but she looks a real fox in her pictures; post selfie when Bruce isn’t looking; have photo taken with a dog. “
So while Beattie was getting the political crap kicked out of him in Forde there was Rudd up in Darwin making a complete arsehole of himself with the Army. They were kept out in the heat for 3 hours awaiting the arrival of the Afghanistan hero, but of course he was late and when he did arrive he had to have his hair done before fronting the troops. I understand that the collective view of the soldiers is that Rudd is an up himself little shit who will never get their vote. What a top campaigner he is. He’s the same old awful Rudd that we learnt to loathe during his first stint as PM but this time he has come back with some new dreadful additions to his behaviour. Beattie and Rudd are doing a great job for the Coalition in Queensland and now Rudd is doing the same thing for them in the NT. Go Kevvie go.
Hmmmmm – might be worth a flutter.
Gold.
Bring back Nifty. The most successful
crookI mean politician NSW ever hadNow Shossie…not going to fall for that again however I must admit as last night it wouldn’t surprise me the little cnut came out with something like your prose
Beattie and Rudd just throwing over a young candidate selfishly for their own interests is the issue.
It’s not fair and I think that’s reflected in the poll. Whether Beattie can use ‘charm’ and spin to get back approval is to be seen. He’s a bit of a master at such stuff but that was a long time ago now.
Beattie took it upon himself to declare he was going tongi the Gold Coast beaches. He said he has fixed them as premier – what he did was spend millions on pumping sand that got washed away again.
Never mind that the Gold Coast beaches aren’t part of forde, that’s the sort of tiresome detail that other people worry about.
And in other news, Craig Thomson, candidate for Dobell declared he would fix up Bondi beach because ‘sometimes people from Dobell go there’
Beattie, Carr, McTiernan, all over 60 and ready to defend the Fatherland.
Rudd’s Volkssturm
Does anyone know why David Lin is running a big campagin for Rankin? I have never seen LNP even bother to put up signs before, yet David is popping up on every corner. The polloing see,s to show its as Red zribbon as ever. Even in the qld landslide there wasnt even a wisper that lnp could pull it off.
If the Beattie manovoure came off, I would have left the country. I’m glad my fellow Australians are as disgusted as I was. Beattie was a fucking appalling premier – just like Bob Carr. Seems like the good people of Forde are ready to belt the electoral crap out of him…
Don’t forget ya mates.
Before the Gillard knifing the scuttlebutt was that David Lin would defeat Emmo. Not so sure now.
It will be interesting to see if he can pull it off.
Lin is an interesting would be pollie, despite being a lawyer, in fact running a law firm, he is also a very successful businessman, being the founder of Sushi Train.
ooh, just found out that Swannies ex chief of staff, Jim Chalmers, is running in Emmo’s old seat against David Lin for the LNP. A PhD in political science. I guess that qualifies him to respect his electorate.
This celebrity-parachuting crap will never work, at least not when you’re on the back foot.
Rudd has ‘transitioned’ from self proclaimed genius to fuck up fairy in just 12 days.
The fuck up fairy was always there, and he showed his face by not going to an election immediately.
I reckon Rudd roped in Beattie to ratfuck him!
The requisite level of stored-up malice implied in such a course of action is sort of awe-inspiring.
I’m sort of sorry to hear about Sarah Hanson-Young possibly departing the scene. Sure, the majority of me despises the Greens and mourns the fact that someone so intelligent can be so lacking in common-sense or grounding in reality. But part of me thinks she would best serve our cause by staying right where she is, becoming the next leader of the Greens, and causing their implosion the same way Natasha Stott-Despoja destroyed the Australian Democrats.
This Kev and Beatup reminds me of OU812 (Pronounced “Oh You Ate One Too”)
I hear John Key has rung Kev to offer help with the Oz earthquake. Power point Pete has threatened to bite Bert Van Manens legs off. ( Key = NZ PM )
Great pic on the Fairfax wrap of Rudd and ALP wannabe-caucus drone John Bissett going to ogle in Perth. Somebody get a copy of it, quick. It will be an email for the ages.
tshirt update
A message from the grate ham painer KyRudd pinguid pollie in a tube
& selfie suppository from hell…buy one get short’n curlies free…
folks before I zip, out the back door, let me just say this…
point 1
albo’s rentless nativity merry go round…
point 2
the peter out plan for “I’m from land”…(dind ding eehaw eehaw etc)
point 3
the farter of fudge it, honestly…
point 303
…
& bottoms up…squirt one alp…
Tired old over 60s are not going to do it for the ALP. They need fresh blood. Why not someone like young Leo Composta who has got over his mother’s tragic death and is now commenting on climate change denialism at the Drum.
See Bunyip
A better fate for the louder Greens is to lose a few members and be reduced to an irrelevant rump safely away from the balance of power, where they can learn the true value of 4 Senate seats. I’m still less confident of a thumping Lib victory than the rest of you seem to be though, so I’ll just sit quietly and wait for the results before getting too excited.
While we’re on the topic of young Senators though: whatever happened to the former young guns Natasha Stott-Despoja, Bill O’Chee and Kerry Nettle? With their celebrity at the time I always thought they’d be destined for something with a profile after leaving politics. At least a media gig. Have any of them surfaced lately?
Beattie is not a celebrity. He is a notorious ex-premier who fucked his state…at least Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian gave us some porn. Beattie just fucked things up.
Beattie is not a celebrity.
You know he’s not and I know he’s not, but does Rudd know? :p
SMH has another 4 local polls this morning, from Reachtel:
McMahon ALP 47 to 53 LNP…Chris Bowen’s seat (ouch).
Bennelong ALP 35 to 65 LNP
Kingsford-Smith ALP 48 to 52 LNP…Mark Thistlethwaite faceless man is in trouble in Garrett’s seat
Blaxland ALP 52 to 48 LNP…Jason Claire’s seat
Fingers crossed, may get to shake the great man’s hand today.
LOL That’s gold Splat.
The roping in of Beattie shows just how stupid these Labor Pardy fkwits can get when they become obcenely desperate. Monty was here telling all and sundry how Qld had such a love affair with Crudd , he was a shoo in with the Maroons. C’mon Monty, tell us how Qlders just luv the Pardy.
The devastating (for Labor and Crudd- music to our ears) news coming from Sydney as well is starting to make an Australian top and middle order batting collapse look wonderful compared to Labor’s re-election campaign.
Still 3 weeks to go and one gets the feeling that the dam is only just starting to crack, with the flood behind. This could turn into the same kind of thrashing that Gillard was headed for. U Fkn Byewdy!
Whatever happened to Rudd the great election campaigner? At the moment, he is a succession of thought bubbles. He needs notes to get through a debate.
The proposed tax preferences for the NT has made Labor more unpopular in the now feeling rather left out WA were the WA Nats could win the 4th senate seat.
Great campaigners stand for something and project vision and unity, not thought bubbles and a lack of depth and preparation.
Time to roll out Carmen Lawrence, Brian Burke and Joan Kirner?
All you need to know about Beattie.
I’m no fan of Bligh, but::
Beattie the cowardly grub blames a woman for the mess in QLD.
A woman who took over from him when he ran away.
A woman now battling cancer.
I’ve wiped better things than Beattie off my shoe.
Long time reader, first time poster ….
South, I’m with you, I’m not 100% convinced of a landslide (but will be more than happy to be wrong). It will be interesting to say the least to watch the next few weeks unfold, I just don’t want to be getting too overconfident to soon.
P.S. Love the comments by the bulk of you guys, especially on the Q&A forum 🙂