Next Saturday Queensland goes to polls. The betting market suggests that the LNP government will be returned, but perhaps Premier Campbell Newman won’t be.
Probability of LNP victory: 80.3%
Probability of LNP winning in Ashgrove: 40.8%
Probability of LNP victory/ALP winning in Ashgrove: 44.2%*
Probability of LNP victory/LNP winning in Ashgrove: 37.3%
* I’ve calculated those percentages from the individual markets – I calculate this percentage should be 46%.