Queensland election betting

Next Saturday Queensland goes to polls. The betting market suggests that the LNP government will be returned, but perhaps Premier Campbell Newman won’t be.

Probability of LNP victory: 80.3%
Probability of LNP winning in Ashgrove: 40.8%
Probability of LNP victory/ALP winning in Ashgrove: 44.2%*
Probability of LNP victory/LNP winning in Ashgrove: 37.3%

* I’ve calculated those percentages from the individual markets – I calculate this percentage should be 46%.

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19 Responses to Queensland election betting

  1. Peter Lang

    That’s not good. Work harder!

  2. 2dogs

    2dogs Feb 1 prediction:

    Premier:                          Scott Emerson
    Leader of Opposition: Cameron Dick

    Also, as an interesting development in campaign fundraising, you can now choose your preferred campaign ads.

  3. Lem

    Meh. Not interested. The election I’m following is just ramping up in downtown Athens. Alexis Tsipras, head of the radical left party expected to win has just voted and said in Greek, and then English, incase anyone couldn’t understand,

    “Notre avenir commun en Europe n’est pas celui de l’austérité”.

    “our common future in Europe is not one of austerity”

    That should put the cats amongst the pigeons.

  4. Mk50 of Brisbane, Henchman to the VRWC

    Hope you are wrong, Sinc. The state is in terrible financial shape due to the ALP-Green incompetent squandermonkeys, and Pally-Chook is lying through her teeth about the financial problems, as Judith’s analysis showed in the Weekend Australian.

    Good article, that.

  5. tomix

    The rains gone and the heat may keep the morbidly obese indoors on Saturday.
    All voters have been sent a letter from ECQ to present for scanning at the booth.

    No letter, photo I.D. required, and it’s a declaration vote.
    No photo I.D. and it’s an unverified vote, if the name is on the roll.
    It may be a while before the votes without the letter are counted.

  6. Armadillo

    I’ll defer to Sinc, but I’m not too sure that a % probability is an accurate indicator from the betting market (at least not until we get closer to next Saturday). The betting markets haven’t changed since last week (LNP to lose 20-30 seats, retaining Government, but with Campbell Newman in a bit of trouble at $2.00 vs $1.75 for Kate Jones). That could change rapidly when some of the “inside money”, from those close to the internal polling, starts coming in towards the end of the week.

    The “Rudd Challenge” on its day was a typical example of what can occur. I’m not suggesting that something similar is remotely possible with an entire electorate, but what Campbell Newmans odds do around Friday next week will pretty much indicate the outcome.

  7. Tel

    “our common future in Europe is not one of austerity”

    That makes sense, their past hasn’t been either.

  8. Baz

    Campbell Newman will go down in history as what you get when you vote Liberal. Not good for the brand.

  9. Todd Myers

    I suspect you have underestimated the chance of Newman and the LNP getting up together, Sinc, due to ignoring correlation ( though I am sure you are aware and are just doing a simple analysis). Ie. If Newman gets up, LNP odds are pretty much 100%. If ALP gets up, Newman would definitely lose Ashgrove.

  10. Stimpson J. Cat

    Tomix you cowardly token libertarian face me!

  11. Campbell Newman will go down in history as what you get when you vote Liberal. Not good for the brand.

    Best Premier Qld has had in more than a quarter of a century.

  12. Yohan

    I’m not in QLD so could be wrong, but it seems that Campbell Newman crossed the line from ‘getting the job done’ type of leader to one lording it over people. Well that’s the perception anyway with the overreach on pink prison jumpsuits and picking fights with the various branches of government.

    Of course the left are saying the main cause of his problems are due to cuts in public service jobs. I doubt the blue collar worker is crying about this.

  13. HRT

    I recall a boat handling instructor telling me his worst students were short, bald men. Knew everything and could not be told anything. Maybe one of them went into politics.

  14. Todd Myers

    Armadillo, true, but you can’t treat the result in each seat as an independent variable. Results in each seat are highly correlated with each other. Which is why they won’t let you do a multibet on individual seat bets. The correlation gives you above the odds (just like a first try scorer/match winner multi – or first goal scorer for you Mexicans)…

  15. Glass Half Empty

    I’m with you, Steve at the Pub!
    There’s a job to be done and he’s doing it.

  16. I’m with you, Steve at the Pub!
    There’s a job to be done and he’s doing it.

    Quite so GHE.
    However I still can’t endorse a vote for either him or the LNP, except on a default basis.

  17. Snoopy

    Today’s ABC online headline: “Queensland Premier Campbell Newman denies pork-barrelling”
    Tomorrow’s ABC online headline: “Queensland Premier Campbell Newman denies QLD hospitals kill babies”
    Wednesday’s ABC online headline: “Queensland Premier Campbell Newman denies eating dugong at fundraiser BBQ”
    Thursday’s ABC online headline: “Queensland Premier Campbell Newman denies secret plan to sack 30,000 public servants”

  18. Quite so Snoopy. The ABC’s overt campaigning is on its own enough for me to want Campbell Newman to win.

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