Betting market reaction

Betting market analysis from Mark the Ballot:

BETTING-Coalition-probability

BETTING-Coalition-probability-summary

The initial reaction looks good. The challenge, of course, is to actually live up to those expectations.

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42 Responses to Betting market reaction

  1. Infidel Tiger

    Great to see our new market driven PM has committed to building subs in SA at triple the international rate to appease some queer bloke.

    Good government starts tomorrow I suppose.

  2. Art Vandelay

    The challenge, of course, is to actually live up to those expectations.

    He can’t. Turnbull has the judgement and ego of Kevin Rudd.

  3. Rabz

    A veritable hockey stick – and about as correct.

    Turnbull is electoral poison.

  4. closeapproximation

    Turnbull is electoral poison.

    Yes he is. He’ll never have broad appeal outside the political class. The next election is lost.

  5. Bruce

    What Turnbull won’t have is a duplicitous, dishonest and disloyal narcissistic megalomaniac white-anting him at every opportunity.

    What Bishop won’t have any more is integrity. There are many people in her electorate eagerly waiting the first opportunity to show her what they really feel through the ballot box.

    Treachery might work initially but ultimately brings down the perpetrator.

  6. Combine Dave

    Great to see our new market driven PM has committed to building subs in SA at triple the international rate to appease some queer bloke.

    What….

    What about the Japanese?

  7. Sean

    Finally the liberals are talking economics again. Abbott/Hockey was a dud partnership.

  8. Infidel Tiger

    What about the Japanese?

    Fuck the Japs. Unless they control party room votes in South Australia, they don’t matter to Turnbull and his wrecking crew.

  9. .

    “Yes he is. He’ll never have broad appeal outside the political class. The next election is lost.”

    If we could actually see who the political class really is…

    Is it:

    Us – we’re in a bubble, never forget it.

    Those annoying arseholes on FB who have ruined it with ALP memes?

    There are people in my family who won’t vote for Turnbull because he’s rich. Gillard turned them into coalition voters but their ingrained ALP ideals (bizzare as they are) are pretty solid.

    A lot of people think like this. They believe that ALP politicians don’t come from or into money either.

  10. Sean

    Even Andrew bolt knows it:

    Tony Abbott:

    What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes… No cuts to education, no cuts to health, no changes to pensions, no change to the GST and no cuts to the ABC or SBS.

    Cost him the job.

  11. Token

    Good government starts tomorrow I suppose.

    They better run to an election as the slide down is going to be quick and hard.

  12. Token

    BTW, have we crossed the threshold? If an election is held in 6 weeks will it include a half senate?

  13. .

    “What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes… No cuts to education, no cuts to health, no changes to pensions, no change to the GST and no cuts to the ABC or SBS.”

    Shortest political suicide note beside’s Howard Dean’s “YEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHRRRRRR!!!!!”

  14. incoherent rambler

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2015/09/wont-get-vote-mr-turnbull/

    rf nails it –

    a Liberal Party that lavishes its leadership on treachery’s most astute practitioner is, quite clearly, beyond the pale

    We need a party that believes in something more substantial than the Turnbull chimera. I want a new party and I want it now.

  15. dweezy2176

    Great optimism from the bookies .. having read comments across several blog sites this morning “Turncoat” is very on the nose, near 100% against!

  16. incoherent rambler

    There is a point in time, yet to come, where never before will so many, encouraged by so few, will come to say – “oh fsck! What have I done?”

    The Libs have converted the next election from a probable loss to decimation.

  17. Alfonso

    Indeed, with Abbott ” the passivity was infuriating.”

  18. I Am the Walras, Equilibrate and Price Take

    Country-shopper-loving anti-freedom big-government Socialism election win probability – 100%.

  19. Aussiepundit

    Country-shopper-loving anti-freedom big-government Socialism election win probability – 100%.

    Turnbull is not a socialist.
    Also, when he gave his priorities at the press conference after the spill, the first priority he gave – literally – was “freedom.”

  20. Makka

    “Also, when he gave his priorities at the press conference after the spill, the first priority he gave – literally – was “freedom.””

    We all know talk is cheap. Let’s see how hard he works at rolling back 18c.

  21. I Am the Walras, Equilibrate and Price Take

    Turnbull is not a socialist.
    Also, when he gave his priorities at the press conference after the spill, the first priority he gave – literally – was “freedom.”

    No, of course he’s not. He’s just pretending to be one. For the punters.

    Freedom, yes? Wake me when he has repealed 18c.

  22. Neilo

    “Be informed, not opinionated”
    C’mon CATS .. stop all this juvenile ranting and spleen venting .. more informed and grown up posts would be appreciated. Recognise that no matter TA was, by most accounts a very decent human being, he was an inept and timid PM that broke too many promises. Build a bridge and get over it.

  23. one old bruce

    Which planet is this from? Not my planet.
    Are they so clueless? Mumbles Bullturd can’t even articulate a clear policy statement. Without Bishop he’s a retard. Which is why Bishop will soon be PM, whatever that may mean.

  24. Craig Mc

    $2.90 for an ALP win. Think I’ll taste some of that.

    Even if the LNP only loses 5% because of Turnbull Aversion, they’re toast. He won’t win a single vote off the ALP/Greens of course, despite all their kissy-kissy noises the last six years.

  25. Craig Mc

    Also, when he gave his priorities at the press conference after the spill, the first priority he gave – literally – was “freedom.”

    Bwahahahahaha! This is the turd that wouldn’t trust consumers with the “freedom” to choose a light globe. Spare me the William Wallace routine.

  26. kc

    Yes, with due reference to the late great Richie Benaud/3rd man parody. “Ok fellas, lets all act like a team and do it my way”. On we march with the same “social justice/climate change” bullsh!t we get from labor.

  27. incoherent rambler

    I will bet that the next Caesar of Australia will not have a female deputy whose name begins with “Juli”.

  28. Peter Pickled

    So before the back stab, Abbot had a greater than 55% chance of winning?

    Am I reading that correctly?

  29. Sydney Boy

    $2.90 for an ALP win. Think I’ll taste some of that.

    And Andrew Hastie is now at $1.10 for Canning. The dead cat bounce has probably helped win that seat for the coalition.

  30. No coal seam gas

    At least with Mr Turnbull as leader we can get to the serious issues facing us – gay marriage, a republic and some kind of emissions trading mechanism to combat Climate Change.

  31. H B Bear

    Hastie was always going to win Canning. That is why Lord Turnbull and his traitorous offsider moved this week.

  32. stackja

    ” The challenge, of course, is to actually live up to those expectations.”

    “Few of us, after all, entirely measure up to expectations.” Tony Abbott

  33. Pyrmonter

    Why wasn’t the result priced in?

  34. wreckage

    From my own circle, Abbott was WAY more on-the-nose than Turnbull. If Turnbull can get his fucking nose out of the air and get some traction with battlers, he’s a shoo-in.

    And while Abbott and Hockey had a tough situation, they hugely overpromised and under-delivered, betrayed the economic liberal base visibly and repeatedly, hitched their wagon to utter brain-farts like GST on $5 imports, and did precious little to shore up business confidence or light the fires of small business again. In other words I think they were awful, and I have said so repeatedly, and so have 2/3rds of the Cats.

    So…. this is a bad move. But I just don’t think Abbott was up to the PMship. He was a freaking amazing opposition leader, but he lacked any sort of focus in the top job. Hockey was loyal but had zero free-market credentials, just NONE.

    In short, this switch might be less bad than leaving Abbott in the PMship, and i hate to say that because I thin rolling a leader is unethical and Turnbull clearly was brewing this for some time instead of playing with the team.

  35. Faye

    Turnbull will have to do better than Question Time today. He’s boring. Turnbull waffles four words to Tony’s one. He’s having to shout over the cacophony opposite to plead his case – he’ll burst a boiler if he doesn’t watch it. To think the 53 treacherous Liberals voted in a has-been who botched his leadership before and stung Brendan Nelson and now Tony Abbott. The man is wrecker and thinks he is better than he really is. A leader to look up to – he’s not; a statesman – he’s certainly not! When he does something original – let me know.

  36. Fred Lenin.

    When career politicians are finally abolished,krud,jools abbot bishop and turn balls will be held as examples of why the old system was abolished .Career politicians should never be allowed near government or taxpayers money .

  37. .

    ” To think the 53 treacherous Liberals”

    They are now the loyalists.

    “Hockey was loyal but had zero free-market credentials, just NONE.”

    Precisely. The public voted in an ostensibly free market supporting government and got MORE socialism, the Abbott fan boys are peeved that the Liberals finally did the deed which would see Hockey go. Abbott didn’t have the ticker to bump off Hockey.

  38. .

    “Fred Lenin.
    #1797886, posted on September 15, 2015 at 4:58 pm
    When career politicians are finally abolished,krud,jools abbot bishop and turn balls will be held as examples of why the old system was abolished .Career politicians should never be allowed near government or taxpayers money .”

    Um…whilst I agree with your sentiment, Abbott has been an MP since 1994…he previously worked as a staffer.

  39. wreckage

    They guys who just got bumped off were going to introduce GST on ALL small value imports.

    That amounts to the biggest re-building of trade barriers and reinstatement of tariffs ever contemplated in my brief lifetime.

    Fuck ’em. I didn’t vote for that. That’s actually worse than the ALP by a long shot.

  40. JohnA

    incoherent rambler #1797610, posted on September 15, 2015 at 1:31 pm

    There is a point in time, yet to come, where never before will so many, encouraged by so few, will come to say – “oh fsck! What have I done?”

    The Libs have converted the next election from a probable loss to decimation.

    I think you mean a ROUT, don’t you?

  41. Kram

    The betting market said that Cambell Neuman would romp home in the Qld election in March. Campbell lost.

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