Do it

The Greens could win the Labor strongholds of Grayndler and Sydney if the party received Liberal preferences at the next election, according to a Parliamentary Library analysis of proposed new federal electoral boundaries.

The research, based on voting in the NSW state election in March, shows the Greens securing more than 55 per cent of the two-party vote in both of the heavily redrawn seats.

While there are several important caveats about the possible double upset, the analysis suggests that if the Liberals were tempted to give the Greens preferences, Labor would need to devote extra resources to protect heartland seats currently held by two of its highest-profile and most senior MPs, Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek.

That is being reported in The Australian.

Albanese and Plibersek might – just might – be more palatable than any two Greens coming into the Parliament, but it is very unlikely that the Greens could ever form government. Labor could. So better to take out their better performers.

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79 Responses to Do it

  1. Trisha Jha

    It’s very unlikely that the Greens could ever form government, but that’s part of what makes them so dangerous. They get to preach their pie-in-the-sky nonsense without ever, effectively, being held to account for it. Their rhetoric is dangerous. Giving them more platforms from which to do that would just put air in the Greens’ balloon. And I’m not willing to bet on said balloon popping before it does real damage.

  2. James

    If you take away all the relatively sane Labor pollies, the remaining ones will be all feral and make it more difficult to have a rational debate.

  3. Rich

    Makes sense to me – the Greens already get main party ABC coverage, 2 irrelevant MPs is worth it to block a labour gov

  4. C.L.

    Agreed.

    If you take away all the relatively sane Labor pollies, the remaining ones will be all feral and make it more difficult to have a rational debate.

    Good.

  5. Rabz

    Both those seats will be won by the greenfilth in time, with or without liberal preferences. Melbourne is not an anomaly – it is labor’s future.

    So much for saving the furniture – or anything else of value. Those three seats are/were labor’s Crown Jewels.

  6. Rich

    If you take away all the relatively sane Labor pollies, the remaining ones will be all feral and make it more difficult to have a rational debate.

    In much the same way that eating a bit of bacon will increase your chances of cancer by 0.0001

    eat the bacon

  7. H B Bear

    Where is the ALP’s Corbyn? Time to get Dougie down from the Senate. He is the future.

  8. Sinclair Davidson

    … the remaining ones will be all feral and make it more difficult to have a rational debate.

    Hmmmmmm …

  9. thefrollickingmole

    Nope, get rid of those 2 and Im sure some pre-selection ‘tard-wrangling would see them pop up somewhere safe.

    So either way its a good idea to target them, they either chuck in resources/money and win, or they lose and the party has another factional battle that does the same.

  10. Directing preferences to The Greens doesn’t make it any less likely that Labor will form government.

    It does however make it more likely that Labor will be forced to make idiotic concessions to The Greens for their support. Just like last time.

    Worst idea ever.

  11. Snoopy

    Lib preferences in the inner city electorates could be a useful bargaining chip in electorates where Labor has narrow wins on the back of formal Green preferences.

  12. JMH

    With Chairman Mal in charge, it would not surprise me if he directs the LINOs to preference Greens across the board. In front of the Nats even!

  13. C.L.

    It does however make it more likely that Labor will be forced to make idiotic concessions to The Greens for their support.

    Good.
    You’re not getting it, Yobbo.
    Who benefits from a Labor Party pushed further to the lunar left?

  14. Sinclair Davidson

    It does however make it more likely that Labor will be forced to make idiotic concessions to The Greens for their support.

    Idiotic? Yes. Concessions? No. The Gillard government didn’t do anything it didn’t want to do.

  15. Andore Jr.

    It’s a sound idea, if only to see Mr. Anthony “Convoy of No Consequence-har-de-har-smug-shit” Albanese trying to bargain for ex-Pollie discounts at the local Thai massage

  16. pete m

    Danby is not feral. I’m sure 1 or 2 others would also not fit that description. poor choice of words.

  17. jupes

    Worst idea ever.

    Yea nah.

    While there is no doubt the Greens should be placed last when voting in 99.9% of electorates, I make an exception with the junky’s wife.

    That Jew hating hag is just as bad as any Green. Get rid of her.

  18. Leo G

    … but it is very unlikely that the Greens could ever form government. Labor could.

    The scenarios that should be differentiated are Liberal preferences leading to a Labor government on the one hand, and a Labor-Green Coalition on the other.
    The rational voter should prefer a Labor to a Labor-Green government.
    A Liberal strategist in opposition might think that the crazier the government, the better the chances of the Liberals regaining government.
    But a Labor government led by Tanya Plibersek could be crazy enough on its own account.
    It’s the sort of question that must lead a Liberal strategist to some dark thoughts.

  19. Tim

    I’m generally with Yobbo on this – you will be giving us a Labor-Green coalition with probably control of both houses of Parliament – a repeat of the Gillard years, where they can indulge their every socialist whim.
    If the Greens traded preferences somewhere else important, like the senate, it might be worthwhile. (Lower house preferences aren’t worth the paper the HTVs are printed on when it comes to the Greens). Otherwise it would probably be a mistake.

    Though I can see the attraction.

  20. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Where is the ALP’s Corbyn? Time to get Dougie down from the Senate. He is the future.

    You’d need a translator, surely?

  21. Fred Lenin

    Where would the union mafia mob be with Albo and the drug dealers wife out ,shorten in jail , along with the mafia thieves ,the pretend party of the Wukkas would be in disaray . Mals laborals in disaray between left and right ,a great opportunity fir the new Australian Liberty Alliance to put the Australian back o the Australian government . Ths ould be our chance to get Our country back from the illegal international communists of the green u.n.

  22. Fred Lenin

    My ipad is playing up sorry fir tge mistakes.

  23. Rabz

    You’d need a translator, surely?

    Fred Lenin, come on down!

  24. Leo G

    Where is the ALP’s Corbyn? Time to get Dougie down from the Senate. He is the future.

    You can get Bellshillian online:
    Whaur is th’ alp’s corbyn? time tae git dougie doon fae th’ senate. He is th’ future.

  25. Tom

    No, your Doomlordship. What Trisha Jha said:

    [The filth] get to preach their pie-in-the-sky nonsense without ever, effectively, being held to account for it. Their rhetoric is dangerous. Giving them more platforms from which to do that would just put air in the Greens’ balloon..

    If it’s life or death, you choose the enemy you would prefer survived — though I admit the Slovenian Hag is a waste of food. Two more seats in the lower house moves the filth closer to the balance of power in both houses. *Shudder*.

    In any case, it may be academic. between 2010 [the filth’s high-water mark] and 2013, their primary vote collapsed by 27% [from 11.8% to 8.6%]. If that trend continues, they’ll get 6.3% in 2016 and will be well on their way down the black hole the Democrats disappeared into.

    The filth always poll well with protest voters between elections — until the poll is actually called: 8.6% in 2016 would be against a king tide.

  26. jupes

    My ipad is playing up sorry fir tge mistakes.

    Fred you have NEVER posted without making mistakes. Not once.

    Don’t apologise now.

  27. whyisitso

    take out their better performers.

    Albanese and Plibersek? Better performers? You have GOT tubbe jokin, as Macca would say.

  28. Entropy

    Seriously, how many people follow preferences? I know I don’t .

  29. billie

    Burn them, scorch the earth of the Labor liars and thieves

    I’d rather deal with the Greens

    When it looks like they might be able to raise enough power, they may become more rational, like the German Greens did.

    Labor, no hope, they are the trade unions and the trade unions are them, the sooner we are rid of them and their ilk the better it is for Australia in the long term.

    When Labor goes, the trade unions will soon follow, now that is a good thing I am willing to suffer the Greens to see.

  30. Andrew

    Normally I would say no. But look at the situation. The SLF is terminal, esp after his Thunderbirds impersonation in Kiribati choreographed by Emmo. But this takes out the ONLY possible successors. Who else could be ALP leader? They could entrench the hapless accused rapist as LOTO by winning the election and bringing in 2 Greens.

    Imagine if the ALP could have preferences two agrarian socialists to take out Sir Scott and Chairman Maolcolm leaving A666ott swinging in the breeze as a lame duck with no successors. They would have done it in a heartbeat.

    This plan relies on
    – them renominating in the current seats
    – LNP winning the election.

    In opposition, ALP having Greens hung around their neck is no problem – it makes them less electable. (See “carbon tax.”) If they’re in Govt, it’s a catastrophe for the country (see “carbon tax.”)

  31. Pyrmonter

    Seriously doubt this for both seats.

    The proposed redistribution (which is generally a shocker for the coalition) makes both seats a bit better for the Libs: it moves Lib-leaning Drummoyne from Reid into Grayndler, and moves some of the hard left south western parts out of Sydney into Grayndler as well. Demographic change is, if anything, making things better for the Libs overall: fewer students and low income hardened lefties left, largely being replaced by young professionals in flats. The latter have some propensity to vote Green, but the Lib vote has been tending to rise in most inner city booths, even with occasionally dead campaigns.

    Comparing the vote in state Sydney is problematic as the contest is really Lib v Left (but not radical) Indendent; the Lib LegCo vote is quite respectable (beats several Lib-held marginals in the ‘burbs).

    Having said which – the idea of a decapitation strategy is almost too hard to resist: politics generally would be improved by the removal of both Alb and Plibs, even if it meant that ancient trot Hall Greenland getting Grayndler.

  32. cohenite

    Albanese and Plibersek might – just might – be more palatable than any two Greens coming into the Parliament,

    Dog’s vomit is more palatable than a green; so are kidney stones, fungal infections, off oysters too quickly swallowed and rotten lettuce.

    The lack of palatability increases exponentially as the numbers increase.

  33. Jim Rose

    What an irony. The New Zealand Greens are starting to outpoll Labour in the party vote in inner-city electorates. They do absolutely terribly in the working class electorates of South Auckland.

    Here in Wellington, the co-leader of the Greens happens to contest the same electorate seat as the deputy leader of the Labor Party. The Greens just when the party vote in that electorate.

  34. The actual lesson from this is that the adolescent minded can ALWAYS go further left. There is no such thing as Peak Marxist Retard.

  35. ACTOldFart

    Play it tactically. Split the difference. Give Albanese Lib preferences in Grayndler, he has after all at least a semblance of rationality about him. And preference the Greens against Plibersek in Sydney. Labour might just get the message that life might be a lot easier if they play nicely, drop loony left clowns like Plibbers, and put up candidates with at least some grasp of reality.

  36. Infidel Tiger

    Albo is a good bloke. Communist arsehole to be sure, but a good bloke.

    He has gone out of his way to help Gary Gray in WA who is being whiteanted by the insane left faction. Gary Gray being the last non-insane ALP pollie in the whole country.

    Plibersek should be deported and all her assets sold to fund the IPAs agenda.

  37. john constantine

    Like a sniper going for a maiming shot instead of a direct kill, because a maimed enemy consumes vital battlefield resources to extract them from the kill zone, targetting the plibblefilth as a green domino would divert priceless blood and treasure into retaining what would otherwise be a safe seat.

    The libs spend so much time shooting themselves in the foot, isn’t it time they get at least a leg shot off at the enemy instead?.

  38. stevem

    With Turnbull at the helm it currently seems the Liberals are more likely to win the next election than not. Given the difficulties of dislodging an ALP leader it seems most likely the Shorten will lead the ALP to the next (losing) election.

    At that point the ALP will be free to elect a new leader. Two of the leading candidates are Plibersek and Albanese. By preferencing the Greens, it may be possible to cripple the ALP by removing two leaders-in-waiting, giving long term strategic gains. With a majority in the Lower House, any elected Greens would be nothing more than a vocal annoyance.

  39. Habib

    I can’t get over the number defending the ferret-faced fist magnet over at Boltas, all politicians are venal douches, but that snaggle-toothed little rub-and-tug lurking prick is obnoxious, smug, irritating and generally loathesome in every way. Plibbers doesn’t even rate a mention. How would a couple of cretinous, powerless greens be seen as any loss? Those two electorates deserve no better either. The liberals will be too stupid/scared to do this, although it’s to their advantage.

  40. David

    My ipad is playing up sorry fir tge mistakes

    Fred that was the most intelligible post you have made. Stay with the I-pad.

  41. Ragu

    The unions love Plibbersack, for reasons unknown. A few months back a table of unionists (AMWU and ETU) out the front of the local were in furious agreement that The Hag had her finger on the pulse and was a great parliamentary performer

    So don’t discount a huuuuge Union financed campaign to protect those two particular seats, back room deals between Greens and the ALP to not contest those particular seats and instead target inner city seats in QLD, for example

    The Liberal brainstrust would see it as a win if they lost one or two seats without having to spend any money on campaigns

  42. Lem

    Do it

    What would Machiavelli do?

    It’s a conundrum, no?

  43. Ragu

    What would Machiavelli do?

    Another gem from noted philosopher Mike Tyson

    These books ain’t window dressing. I think Machiavelli’s the most sophisticated writer outside of Shakespeare. Way ahead of his time. Such a manipulative person. Everything he accomplished he did by kissin’ ass.

  44. 3d1k

    Yes. A few Greens in the HoR represent no problem assuming safe Liberal majority. Nicely displaces a couple from Labor royalty. I think neither Albo nor Plibbers good performers.

    However, Greens are in reality seeking de facto governance via winnable Senate seats then holding the elected Government of either side to ransom – concede to Green demands to gain passage of legislation (modified accordingly) thru the Senate. Sneaky and looking like it’ll work 😉

  45. It’s the Turnbull Principle, or possibly the Davidson Principle?

    ‘When you remove someone bad, make sure you replace them with someone worse.’

    I am starting to wonder if this isn’t some kind of deep game; a very long-term strategy to make us realise the quality of what we lost.

  46. A Lurker

    But a Labor government led by Tanya Plibersek could be crazy enough on its own account.

    Angela Merkel’s brand of insanity springs immediately to mind.

  47. Rabz

    a very long-term strategy to make us realise the quality of what we lost.

    Indeed, because whenever I think of Albo and Plibbers, the first word that always pops into my head is “quality”. Or a total lack thereof.

  48. You’re all mad, the Liberal (sic) campaign management would stuff it up royally somehow. And if they did manage to bump Ms Plibersek off they’d only appoint her head of the ABC or something equally counter productive.

    Always vote LDP

    It’s the only way to be sure.

  49. Indeed, because whenever I think of Albo and Plibbers, the first word that always pops into my head is “quality”. Or a total lack thereof.

    I did say ‘long term’. That could be very long term. Like ‘Cretaceous Period’ long term.

    You’re all mad, the Liberal (sic) campaign management would stuff it up royally somehow. And if they did manage to bump Ms Plibersek off they’d only appoint her head of the ABC or something equally counter productive.

    Sad but true.

  50. Simon/other

    I think you people should stop thinking and start playing the game. We want Tanya to win and Albo to go.
    Think of it like this Keating, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Shorten, Plibersek. The economy is rooted for a couple of years anyway. We need these Icons of the Left in the public eye making mistakes and generally crapping all over the taxpayers. The only way to get a full consensual mandate for conservative changes is to have these fools disgust the public. They will do if we just shut up and let them get on with it. Plibersek pisses just about everyone off. We need Labor to come into power and fail miserably.
    Abbotts biggest failing was that he won 3 years to early.
    The conservatives also have to start burying the hatchet with the ALP right wing to pressure the left wing into attempting crazy internal retribution, which they will do because they are petty, small minded and vindictive.

  51. don coyote

    Surely it is an advantage to have unelectable nongs lead the Labor Party.

  52. Andrew

    You’re all mad, the Liberal (sic) campaign management would stuff it up royally somehow. And if they did manage to bump Ms Plibersek off they’d only appoint her head of the ABC or something equally counter productive.

    Appointing the former Member for Hamas the CEO of the ABC would represent the biggest lurch to the Right of this term of Govt – for both the Liberal party and the ABC.

  53. wazsah

    While it is entertaining to consider the options – surely more likely that Albo & Plibs will move to safer seats. IMHO not worth disturbing the great rule – “always put the Greens last”.
    A bigger issue than Albo & Plibs is that right of centre voters let their preferences leak far too much to the left.

  54. Sydney Boy

    Terrible idea.

    The risk of a Labor / Greens coalition is just too real and scary.

  55. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    The risk of a Labor / Greens coalition is just too real and scary.

    I’m betting there would be death duties and a wealth tax inside three months.

  56. Sydney Boy

    And not only that, what concessions would Labor have to agree to in order to keep the Greens in their coalition? Zero superannuation concessions, 100% free university (no HECS), negative gearing made illegal, etc. The 45% who pay no net tax will quickly rise to 60% or more.

  57. Sarahbath1975 Fitzroy

    It seems the neocons here are finally starting to come to terms with what the Australian people want. That is a Greens government. As I have said most of Australia agree with our sensible policies. Squark all you want but you only get one vote.

  58. El Cid

    Always put the party with the worst policies last. Then expect of your party the same consistency in principle applied to policy: know your principles and stick to them. I don’t believe that a person (party) who gets dirty with political machinations of this sort is then going to be the type of person (party) that enacts and defends good policy when it isn’t popular. Much more likely to be the sort of person who is in power for the sake of power.

  59. JohnA

    Andrew #1848421, posted on November 6, 2015 at 4:52 pm

    You’re all mad, the Liberal (sic) campaign management would stuff it up royally somehow. And if they did manage to bump Ms Plibersek off they’d only appoint her head of the ABC or something equally counter productive.

    Appointing the former Member for Hamas the CEO of the ABC would represent the biggest lurch to the Right of this term of Govt – for both the Liberal party and the ABC.

    Now here is a winning strategy emerging from jesting jousting!

    Corporatisation – done
    Emasculation – next stage; readily achievable with TP in charge – the ABC will go fully and ferally leftist; meanwhile the re-elected Coalition government can boycott it
    Privatisation – final stage of the process; and the lefty horde can think of it as a victory!

    Nike said it: Just Do It!

  60. Andrew

    Putting more Greens into Parliament drags the debate further across to left wing craziness. 10 years ago we were never having the stupid discussions in a range of policy areas about tax and spending that we are now.

  61. MickofBrisbane

    Given there is little difference between the Greens and Labor it is not unimaginable that a minority government can be formed.

  62. eb

    Surely it is an advantage to have unelectable nongs lead the Labor Party.

    Oh, I agree. I thought Rudd was unelectable, turns out the Labor Party actually agreed. They thought that he was a cretinous sociopath. But look what happened.

    Remember, governments are voted out, oppositions aren’t voted in.

  63. Boambee John

    James
    #1848267, posted on November 6, 2015 at 1:33 pm
    If you take away all the relatively sane Labor pollies, the remaining ones will be all feral and make it more difficult to have a rational debate.

    Putting aside his apparent fondness for exciting massages, Albo seems relatively sane

    Plibersek is not.

  64. Rabz

    The risk of a Labor / Greens coalition is just too real and scary.

    Seriously, does anyone foresee the liberals winning either Sydney or Grayndler anytime in the near future?

    Not going to happen, even with the ascendancy of the Waffler.

    If anyone can find a single difference in beliefs or so called policies between Plibbers and your average greenfilth imbecile (BIRM), then they must have a mighty efficient microscope.

    The point I’m making is – labor and the greenfilth are currently indistinguishable and it makes not one whit of difference which of them holds those seats.

    However, labor are at risk of placing themselves in an irredeemable no win situation. Either they move back to the sensible centre and attempt some product differentiation in order to retain their lower house seats (which they’d then retain via greenfilth preferences), or they’re going to be glued into a lockstep of death attempting to outloon the greenfilth in order to retain votes.

    This is the point I made on Bolt’s this morning (which some moron who had conveniently forgotten about Gillard tried to contradict by attempting to blame the libs) and has also been alluded to by some of the more sensible commenters above.

  65. Rabz

    If labor move back to the sensible centre, they’re also more likely to end up gaining the votes of those liberal voters who bother to cast a formal vote – if it becomes a two cornered contest between Albansleazey and the greenfilth candidate.

    Albo won in 2010, for example, on just those votes. Pretty much every liberal voter would have placed the greenfilth candidate last (and Albo second last).

  66. .

    rabz is right.

    Don’t vote the for the ALP as a protest vote.

    Put the ALP and Greens last.

  67. Rabz

    e.g. if it becomes a two cornered contest

  68. Jo Smyth

    Just goes to prove what a totally ridiculous and f….ed up electoral system we have in this country. Everyone deserves exactly what is coming because basically nobody gives a dam anymore.

  69. Rabz

    Just goes to prove what a totally ridiculous and f….ed up electoral system we have in this country.

    Especially when we have indefensible inconsistencies such as optional preferential voting in the NSW lower house of parliament, for example, but not the federal lower house.

  70. AP

    Anyone who would promote this most insane, stupid idea has lost my confidence. The Greens are a cancer. You don’t feed cancer.

    You don’t legitimise socialists. You don’t give them an inch. You don’t give them more power, or the ability to form a leftist coalition government.

    Dumb, dumb, dumb.

    Shallow thinking, and stupid.

  71. Jo Smyth

    And another thing, all the ridiculous carry on after every election about the need for I.D. What’s the problem, just announce from now on – No ID, No Vote. Preferably photo ID. It’s not a problem when we have to produce it at all those other places i.e pharmacies, banks, airports, libraries, pawn shops, post offices to collect a parcel, the list is endless so why all the fuss about voting. It’s just laughable.

  72. Sydney Boy

    Jo Smyth – With a requirement to show ID, how could Labor and the Greens get away with this (one person voted 15 times!) or this?

  73. sabrina

    The general disenchantment with the two major parties is shifting some (immature) voters towards the Greens.
    The sooner the LDP steps up, the better.

  74. Yohan

    Think tactically. The next Labor leader will be Albo, Plibersek, Bowen or Clare.

    Both Albo and Plibersek are from the Labor left, they are true progressive leftists and would destroy the country if they got into power. Albo spent the 80’s calling Hawke and Keating neo-liberals, and railed against every reform they implemented.

    By contrast Bowen and Clare are from the Labor right and much more sound on economics relative to the Labor left. Still bad, but better.

    So hell yes, the Liberals should preference the Greens and knock them off.

  75. Yohan

    The actual lesson from this is that the adolescent minded can ALWAYS go further left. There is no such thing as Peak Marxist Retard.

    Lol yes. The youth support for Sanders and Corbyn have recently proven this.

  76. Infidel Tiger

    Putting more Greens into Parliament drags the debate further across to left wing craziness. 10 years ago we were never having the stupid discussions in a range of policy areas about tax and spending that we are now.

    Exactly.

    Would we advocate voting for a Nazi party if it removed softcock Liberals? Tempting, but that is selling your soul and principles. Voting Green or preferencing them is exactly the same.

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