The Greens could win the Labor strongholds of Grayndler and Sydney if the party received Liberal preferences at the next election, according to a Parliamentary Library analysis of proposed new federal electoral boundaries.
The research, based on voting in the NSW state election in March, shows the Greens securing more than 55 per cent of the two-party vote in both of the heavily redrawn seats.
While there are several important caveats about the possible double upset, the analysis suggests that if the Liberals were tempted to give the Greens preferences, Labor would need to devote extra resources to protect heartland seats currently held by two of its highest-profile and most senior MPs, Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek.
Albanese and Plibersek might – just might – be more palatable than any two Greens coming into the Parliament, but it is very unlikely that the Greens could ever form government. Labor could. So better to take out their better performers.