OPEC oil producers vs US shale gas producers. Low energy prices for the foreseeable future.
The full measure of the shale oil model’s impact will be tested when the current crude glut clears and geopolitical risk returns, which is a near certainty. As oil prices eventually rise, will production from America’s shale oil fields rise in tandem and absorb the shock? The next president is likely to find out, and the answer will almost certainly be “yes.” And maybe that president will do something President Obama has never done — acknowledge the game-changing shale revolution as the most extraordinary energy success story in U.S. history.
Good news. Some CEOs still have their feet on the ground.
Climate change fails to top list of threats for business leaders at Davos. Geopolitical uncertainty, over-regulation and cyber attacks among biggest threats to business. The high profile UN summit on climate change in Paris appears to have had little impact on the decision making and worries of global business leaders.
More good news. Refutation of the claim that 20 years of manmade heat have been stored up in the ocean deeps.
Even more good news. Increasing extreme weather is hard to find.
Not good news. Regulators at work.
Film. The Big Short is short on understanding the real dynamics of the markets.
History. How the welfare state wrecked the Roman empire. Thanks Emperor Tiberius. What was that about learning from history?
Ernst Gombrich, a hidden treasure of art history and scholarship. The Gombrich archive. Richard Gombrich talks about his father. Good content, pity about the presentation. The man himself on his life and work.
Gold plating books. The art of gilding books.
Gilding is an age old art which consists of applying gold in powder or thin sheet (gold leaf) form to an object – in this case, a book’s pages or even cover boards.
The gold in gold leaf has typically been mixed or alloyed with other metals such as silver or copper. But there are other options, and not all that glitters is gold. Some cheaper editions simply have gold-colored paint, which can dull quickly, while at the other end of the spectrum are firms like Easton Press, who still accent editions in genuine 22kt gold.
For nerds. Articles wasting space in economics journals. A check on 12 months of articles in a leading journal to find how many make a contribution to understanding the world outside. The answer is no more than 12%.
We argue that a model may qualify as theory only if it purports to answer three questions: Theory of what?, Why should we care?, What merit in your explanation? We examine the 66 regular articles appearing in the 2004 issues of Journal of Economic Theory—“the leading journal in economic theory” —and apply the three requirements. We find that 27 articles fail the first test (Theory of what?) and 58 articles fail at least one of the three requirements. Thus, 88 percent of the articles do not qualify as theory. We contend that the journal’s claim to scientific status is doubtful, as well as the very title of the journal.
UPDATE. See you in Argentina in August.