Plain Packaging – even the AIHW stats confirm it has failed

Yesterday was World No-Tobacco Day and it seems that the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare missed an opportunity to release their latest  National Drug Strategy Household Survey data showing the glorious success of their policies to rid Australia of tobacco and other harmful drugs. Instead the data was pre-released today.

It’s not like the Nanny State to miss an opportunity like that. Wonder what they didn’t want the world to know yesterday?

12.2% of people aged 14 or over were daily smokers in 2016. While smoking rates have been on a long-term downward trend, for the first time in over two decades, the daily smoking rate did not significantly decline over the most recent 3 year period (2013 to 2016).

Yes – the prevalence of smoking in Australia “fell” from 12.8% in 2013 – the first full year of plain packaging – to 12.2% in 2016. How is that long-term trend looking?

Tobacco control policies over the last (almost) three decades have had no impact on the long-term downward trend in tobacco consumption. Given the population increase since 2013, I suspect more people were smoking in 2016 than in 2013. I wonder if they were smoking legal cigarettes? Probably not.

In the meantime use of illicit drugs has increased from 15% to 15.6%.

Update: Chris Snowdon here.

If the ‘public health’ industry was even slightly evidence-based, Australia would have legalised vaping and Britain would have never bothered with plain packaging. But is not evidence-based. It is a cult, and the chief turnip on the turnip farm has already come up with his pathetic excuses, which amount to ‘give us more money’…

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, tobacco control is not a results-driven business.

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19 Responses to Plain Packaging – even the AIHW stats confirm it has failed

  1. Tim Neilson says:

    The link refers to “Manchester” as a leading illegal brand. I can vouch for that. There are plenty of “Manchester” packets on the ground round Victoria Street Richmond.

    Illegal tobacco – the greatest anti-poverty initiative in Australia today.

    Pity they don’t do illegal good quality pipe tobacco.

  2. Sinclair Davidson says:

    I’m told 888 is a good brand too. Cheap at $13 for 20 and comes in the legally prescribed pack.

  3. Dr Fred Lenin says:

    Looks like another carefully planned leftist control plan has come unstuck , surprising with all the clever leftists who formulated it ,is this indicative that the keft are useless at practical thinking? Their u,n. Is full of these clever dicks I mean kevvie in line for the emperors job .tell s a lot dunnit?

  4. Sparkle Motion says:

    Appreciate the sentiment but if you want to make the last point why not plot against total numbers smoking?

    And how is that evidence that there is “no impact on the long-term downward trend in tobacco consumption”.
    You could make a case that ongoing nanny state interventions drive the ongoing decline in % of people smoking with that simplistic logic.

  5. Some History says:

    I’m told 888 is a good brand too. Cheap at $13 for 20 and comes in the legally prescribed pack.

    As far as I’m aware, they also come with the “fire safe” paper. If anyone has problems with FS cigarettes, they’ll have a problem with “888”. Best bet is cigarettes legally manufactured in other countries that don’t have the FS requirement [such countries usually also don’t have the requirement of “medical porn” packs].

  6. Some History says:

    Being World No-Tobacco Day – to be observed – the totalitarians of that unelected, unaccountable UN outfit called the World Health Organization, who introduced World No-Tobacco Day years ago – weighed in.

    Stronger Tobacco-control Measures Vital, WHO Warns

    GENEVA — The World Health Organization warns that more than 7 million people die prematurely every year from tobacco-related causes, and it’s a costly drain on national economies.
    In advance of World No Tobacco day, to be observed Wednesday, the global health agency urged governments to implement strong tobacco control measures for the health of their people and their economies.
    ….To mark World No-Tobacco Day, the U.N. Development Program and the Secretariat of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control issued a study that focuses on the harmful effects of tobacco on both health and on efforts aimed at achieving the U.N.’s sustainable development goals (SDGs).

    Does anyone remember voting for the UN’s “vision” for the world and its “SDGs”? Well, that’s what our useful-idiot politicians and government bureaucrats have signed us up to.

  7. Some History says:

    How United Nations health chiefs are squandering YOUR cash on first class flights and luxury hotels
    – World Health Organisation (WHO) is funded by taxpayers through Dept of Health
    – WHO spent more on staff travel than on tackling malaria, tuberculosis or AIDS
    – First class flights and five star hotels contributed to £153million annual bill
    – Britain gives WHO £129million annually, more than every country except the US

    How the WHO became an expensive joke

    A terribly BAD joke, at that.

  8. Some History says:

    Of the new Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO).

    The rest of the story is that Dr. Ghebreyesus, as one of the nine executive members of the politburo of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – according to the Ethiopian Advocacy Network, has been accused of leading a campaign of repression and murder that some have even called a genocide.

  9. Nerblnob says:

    Countries wanting to introduce plain packaging are hailing the Australia law as a Great Success.

    The facts don’t matter. The narrative is settled.

  10. Will says:

    so smoking in Australia “fell” 0.6% (2013 – 2016) and use of illicit drugs has increased by 0.6%.

    The substitution effect?

    More ice addicts fewer nicotine addicts?

  11. Some History says:

    For an insight into the derangement that is the antismoking mentality.

    Here’s what passes for “health” promotion these days.
    Videos are well under 1 minute each.

  12. Some History says:

    Here’s a violent one on the consequences of not joining the climate change bandwagon (need to log on)

  13. Sinclair Davidson says:

    And how is that evidence that there is “no impact on the long-term downward trend in tobacco consumption”.

    Because there is no deviation from the long term trend line that I have inserted into the graph.

    I don’t have the full AIHW data set – so I don’t know the population figures they are working with.

  14. Ad Nausium says:

    “Extracting” the urine was a hallmark of Aussies” but the major media and political organisations in the States and the UK have surpassed us in recent years.

  15. Some History says:

    Tobacco control policies over the last (almost) three decades have had no impact on the long-term downward trend in tobacco consumption.

    There is a TC factor not accounted for in the graph that will have had a significant influence on the declining trend of smoking – a few decades of incessant, State-sponsored inflammatory propaganda that has reduced those who smoke to “addicts” (diseased) that develop [“tobacco-related”] disease, and spread (through secondary smoke and “thirdhand smoke”) disease to innocent nonsmokers, including The Children™. Smokers have been depicted as burdens on the health system, specifically, and society, generally. With the latest round of smoking bans at [open air] playgrounds, smokers are portrayed as a corrupting influence on The Children™ requiring State protection for the latter.

    For many smokers the constant slander, producing angst/animosity with friends/family/strangers, has been too much and have capitulated into quitting.

  16. Some History says:

    Yep. His brown-nosed, tosser-highness, Simon Crapman of Excrementville, is at the ready with the self-serving, “evergreen” crap –
    “It’s Big [Bad] Tobacco wot dunn it. GIVE ME MONEY…..M-O-N-E-Y“.

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