Roundup from the Global Warming Policy Forum

A collection of the latest news from Benny Pieser. Less heat, more ice, Judith Sloan on the local scene and Jo Nova on volunteers in Victoria knitting to keep the poor warm. Something that the people in the AEMO and cognate climate-related bureaucracies and agencies might do usefully.

On the other hand, to maintain balance, coal is out and the only way for the price of renewables to go is down. From your public funded and unbiased ABC.

Meanwhile Wind and Other doing 3 to 4% of demand.
Update at 9.30 with the sun up Wind and Other are giving 5 to 6% of demand – 1.3 of 23GW, Wind and other in Tasmania 0.001! How do they measure it?

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17 Responses to Roundup from the Global Warming Policy Forum

  1. stackja

    Picture shows ABC still getting steamed up.

  2. V_maet

    You have to laugh at the articles claiming coal isn’t the cheap energy source.

    They always rely on some ridiculous externality pricing which assumes everything badnis caused by CO2 emissions and ignores the fact that there are positives to higher CO2 levels.

    And the knitting army wouldn’t be needed if we could explore and extract gas or even collect our own firewood from fallen branches/trees.

  3. Amadeus

    I saw JoNova’s notes about knitting to help Victorians keep warm as they are struggling to keep heaters on.

    Oh well, it’s all turning out according to Dan’s plans. Reminds me of the song..”Windmills of Your Mind” by Bergman/LeGrand…

    Round like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel
    Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel
    Like a snowball down a mountain, or a carnival balloon
    Like a carousel that’s turning running rings around the moon
    Like a clock whose hands are sweeping past the minutes of its face
    And the world is like an apple whirling silently in space
    Like the circles that you find in the windmills of your mind
    Like a tunnel that you follow to a tunnel of its own
    Down a hollow to a cavern where the sun has never shone
    Like a door that keeps revolving in a half forgotten dream
    Or the ripples from a pebble someone tosses in a stream
    Like a clock whose hands are sweeping past the minutes of its face
    And the world is like an apple whirling silently in space
    Like the circles that you find in the windmills of your mind
    Keys that jingle in your pocket, words that jangle in your head
    Why did summer go so quickly, was it something that you said?
    Lovers walking along a shore and leave their footprints in the sand
    Is the sound of distant drumming just the fingers of your hand?
    Pictures hanging in a hallway and the fragment of a song
    Half remembered names and faces, but to whom do they belong?
    When you knew that it was over you were suddenly aware
    That the autumn leaves were turning to the color of her hair!
    Like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel
    Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel
    As the images unwind, like the circles that you find
    In the windmills of your mind

    Mmmmmm…As the adage goes…you reap what you sow…

    I’ve tried to be sympathetic but the only remaining thing I can say to Victorians is ….get knitted.

  4. Roger

    In a recent report, based on deep, sophisticated modelling, it looked at the most economical way to replace our fleet of ageing coal plants as they retire.

    I.e. dodgy modelling.

  5. Louis Hissink

    Actually to have an ice age one actually needs to evaporate a lot of water and dump it at the poles etc. Simply cooling the system does not produce more snow. things just ice up.

    To have a deluge of snow you need a CME to evaporate oceans, then a surge in protons to form the ice crystals. So it’s global warming that creates more snow, which seems to be some sort of feedback mechanism to regulate the biosphere.

    CO2 has nothing at all to do with it.

  6. yarpos

    Always amazed that people believe intermittent power sources will put “downward pressure on prices”
    – add intermittency
    – add complexity to deal with the above (synch, management and control)
    – add back up generation to deal with the above (SA and TAS examples)
    – add transmission costs to diffuse low power sources
    – add short life span system than need replacement more frequently, there are no 50+ year wind turbines
    – require back up sources to add to their costs to support all this via RET
    – add layers of overlapping ineffective bureaucracy and uncoordinated planning
    – add political cycles and virtue signalling
    – add the as yet unknown cost of recycling disposing of masses of battery and wind turbine waste

    and cost will go down? really?? if costs go down at all it will be in spite of intermittents, not due to them

  7. Tel

    https://www.kmart.com.au/category/home-&-entertainment/home-by-category/bedding/blankets-&-throws/252018

    Prices starting at $5 and almost everything less than $20. Blankets are ridiculously affordable and there’s no NEED for anyone in Australia to be cold, especially when you consider it does not even get particularly cold here (barely below freezing) and we have about the most generous handouts in the entire world.

    However, if people enjoy knitting to amuse themselves and keep occupied that’s entirely their prerogative to do so.

  8. V_maet

    Tel,
    While we don’t tend to experiencetruly cold weather in Australia, the fact is that most of our housjng is designed to keep the occupants cooler so the winter months can be quite chilling.

    A $20 blanket might help but it’s not practical to wesr around the house

  9. Bruce of Newcastle

    On the other hand, to maintain balance, coal is out and the only way for the price of renewables to go is down. From your public funded and unbiased ABC.

    How odd.

    Vestas To Close Spanish Wind Turbine Factory Due To Lack Of Demand (3 Sep)

    Could it be that the ABC is pushing fake news?
    Perish the thought!

  10. OldOzzie

    Coal shows resilience in global comeback

    Coal is clinging to the top spot in power generation, accounting for as much of the world’s electricity as it did two decades ago, despite heightened concerns about climate change and a slowdown in financing for projects involving the dirtiest of fossil fuels.

    US exports of coal more than doubled in 2017 and are set to grow this year, according to the Energy Information Administration. Countries across Asia and Africa are expected to increase their use of coal for expanding power generation through 2040, says the EIA.

    The rebound shows coal’s resilience, especially in emerging regions, and recent events suggest the market for black combustible rock will remain strong. In the US, the Trump administration has proposed to reverse US rules on coal emissions, and countries including India and Vietnam are planning major coal projects.

    Coal accounted for 38 per cent of the world’s electric power generation in 2017, putting it at the same level as in 1998, according to a recent report by BP. A revival of the thermal coal market last year helped to lift mining companies’ earnings and share prices. Among them was Glencore, one of the world’s largest mining concerns. In March, it spent $2.2 billion for coal assets in Australia as part of a bet that demand for coal in Southeast Asia will remain robust.

    Meanwhile, global carbon emissions from coal and other fossil fuels increased by 1.4 per cent in 2017 after three flat years. The rise is attributed to economic growth and increasing energy demand in Asia, according to the IEA. Emissions are linked to rising global temperatures and more extreme weather patterns, experts say, and coal is a leading contributor to human health problems.

    The World Bank stopped financing coal in 2010 because of the hydrocarbon’s link to global warming, and many international banks are turning away from fossil fuel projects. Last year, Deutsche Bank said it wouldn’t grant financing for new coal mining or coal-powered projects. In July, Lloyds Banking Group said it would stop extending loans for new coal ventures.

    Still, coal plants are attractive because they are less expensive to build than renewable energy facilities. The cost of constructing a renewables plant is roughly double the outlay of a fossil-fuel facility, experts say.

    Government officials in developing nations, many of whom say they want to curb the use of coal to combat climate change, often face the difficult challenge of doing so without slowing economic growth.

    That tricky balance is seen particularly in Nigeria, where coal is abundant and cheap yet some 54 per cent of the country’s 190 million citizens lack access to electricity. The country has a plan under way to deliver power from coal-fired plants to more of its people.

    Today, Nigeria generates all of its power with a mix of hydroelectric dams and natural gas, but frequent vandalism of pipelines causes power shortages. By 2030, Africa’s biggest economy plans to add 30 gigawatts of power, of which about 30 per cent will be produced by renewable sources and about 3 per cent will be from coal. The project will cost about $US3.5 billion a year.

    The World Bank approved a $US350m loan for solar mini-grids and other equipment to provide electricity in Nigeria. But the bank has said it would no longer finance projects involving coal — anywhere in the world. Bank officials say countries looking to fund coal ventures should look to the private sector.

    “I think it’s simplistic to begin to separate renewable energy from fossil fuel,” said Babatunde Fashola, Nigeria’s minister of power, works and housing. “What the world really needs is to achieve a balance.” There are some 2 billion tons of coal in the country, according to estimates, and economists say putting it to use to spread power could be a boon for the economy.

    Many emerging nations are fighting similar issues, even as more prosperous countries such as the US and the UK have reduced the use of coal to produce electricity.

    On the Asian continent, home of the world’s largest coal reserves, China and India account for most of the growth in coal use. Vietnam plans a fivefold increase in its coal capacity through 2035, according to the Clean Coal Centre, a division of the IEA.

    Bangladesh plans to use coal to generate 50 per cent of the country’s power by 2030, up from 2 per cent today. Like many countries in the region, it is funding its expansion with loans and technological help from China and Japan. Toshiba Corp. and other partners are building a coal power plant and port on Matarbari Island in Bangladesh. The project will cost about $US4bn, with most of its financing coming from the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

    Some countries looking into coal-expansion plans are hoping the Trump administration will take a pro-coal approach to the 2016 Electrify Africa Act, which set aside funds for energy projects on the continent without specifying a preference for how power is generated.

    An official familiar with the program’s vetting process says the program, known as Power Africa, “promotes an all-of-the-above energy development strategy for sub-Saharan Africa.” Dow Jones

  11. New Chum

    When the wind generators are not generating power don’t they keep them turning by drawing power from the grid ?

  12. Wind is currently generating a paltry 4.3 percent of Australia’s national total. Solar? Zero.

    We need The Australian to publish on its front page every day a summary of the previous day’s electricity generation statistics by State. Politicians, bureaucrats and the renewables industry have hid the truth for far too long.

  13. Lee

    The next lefty or Labor-lite Liberal who I see express concern or sympathy for the elderly or poor freezing because they can’t afford power will be the first!

  14. Rafe Champion

    New Chum, I think that is the case, clarification required, if so the attempt to reduce CO2 emissions by phasing in unreliables will only work when the old power plants close completely, in the meantime they have to maintain a spinning reserve for times like now when there no sun and next to no wind. As if it matters in the real world.

  15. yarpos

    4% seems to be the magic number

  16. Lysander

    Rafe; I’d really appreciate a post explaining the power dashboard and wtf it all means! I get “wind and other” is doing nothing but….

    https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview

    I look at it and I don’t have time to understand it; I’d guess most people would be the same. For example, why is south australia minus $79?? Do you have it in you to do a post on the dashboard itself?

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