We’re going to see a 250 per cent increase in wind and solar in the national electricity market in the next three years; an investment of $15bn in renewables. We will reach our 2030 commitments in a canter.
Before I make a fool of myself and irritate the neighbours, someone check this line of argument.
Check out Energy Production by Source using “Fuel Source – Primary” to simplify the picture. The power required through the day varies from the low of 18GW in the night to north of 28GW on weekdays. The picture shows the unreliables floating on top of the sea of coal and hydro.
When there is not enough power to meet demand there has to be deliberate load shedding or simply grid failure. Someone can provide more detail on what happens around that point.
How much can we expect the unreliable sources to contribute to the daily demand, bearing in mind that it is required every day because a single day of failure is a disaster of greater or lesser extent. In the worst case at night and cloudy days with little or no wind (29 days in the year with less than 10% of wind capacity active) we can expect next to nothing.
I think that the answer is that to be failsafe (or as near as any system can get) we need 100% of coal and hydro plus a safety margin for planned and unplanned maintenance.
That means that not a single dollar of public money should have been spent on the unreliables until the problem of storage is solved because we will need virtually 100% coal and hydro (or nuclear) until that time.
So Angus Taylor is promising to put a whole lot of good money after the bad that has been spent already. Of course the genius Kevin Rudd extended the renewable rort until 2030 so it is going to be a painful and expensive road to recovery from here. Disaster beckons and no amount of extra unreliable energy will relieve the situation.