Wind watch 17 Dec

The situation is getting more interesting on warm days. Today the demand peaked near 28GW that is getting into the danger zone for load-shedding. At the peak coal was providing 18GW and that is probably as good as it gets before it gets worse when 2GW are lost at Liddell.
At the peak gas contributed 3GW and hydro weighed in with 3.3 (40% of capacity).
Solar was just going out and Wind added 1.2GW (20% of capacity). Wind was actually picking up at the time and so gas and hydro could ramp down.
That is the razor’s edge. What happens when the peak tries to exceed 28GW and there is less wind? How much can gas ramp up, and how long can hydro run above 40% capacity?
What does load-shedding cost? Is anyone allowed to know?

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27 Responses to Wind watch 17 Dec

  1. teddy bear

    We will know after the whole thing collapses. The solution will naturally be more ruinables.

    The real question is how long can they keep it up for, as each time they pull that the risk of the general public discovering the truth increases, so too does the risk to those keeping the scam going.

  2. Herodotus

    Looks like we’ll all have to do some “shed loading”. An effing big generator in a shed with connection to the house’s meter box in a way that enables it to be used whenever the “load shedding” hits. I don’t know the practical electrical details, but there has to be a way.

  3. Jonesy

    How many businessses received mandatory shut down directions yesterday to save the grid?

  4. MatrixTransform

    load shedding accountability involves double entry accounting semantics.

    so simply switch columns and make the cost into a benefit.
    hey presto, all of a sudden load shedding will be ‘saving’ the grid instead of costing
    a bit like mega-batteries for ‘frequency-stabilization’

    fist add renewable ‘assets. then to make things even better add more ‘assets’ to keep things on spec.
    second turn stuff to protect the ‘assets’

    easy as 123

  5. Ubique

    If the grid fails because the wind don’t blow while the sun ain’t shining, the answer of course is more subsidies for more wind turbines and solar panels.

  6. RobK

    There were no notices on AEMOs website about that, so they may have scraped through but it did say this:

    Market reporting for forecast extreme temperature in the Queensland on Fri 21/12/2018

    Market Notice 66064


    AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures for QLD region that are equal to or greater than the Generation Capacity Reference Temperatures:

    On Fri, 21/12/2018: Maximum forecast temperature 37 degrees C at Archerfield for the Brisbane area

    Something to lookout for.

  7. Diogenes

    How many businessses received mandatory shut down directions yesterday to save the grid?

    Just wondering as AEMO is a federal thing & the energy market is regulated by the Feds, whether or not the takings” clause (section 51 (xxxi) could be invoked

  8. RobK

    I doubt it. Large industrial customers often have a load shedding clause in their contract. Rolling blackout type shedding is a last resort.

  9. yackman

    Re RobK; the industry I worked in had a restriction on MD (Maximum Demand) over a 15 minute period which gave an incentive to stagger start-ups of large plant, say > 350 kW, which is not very large by current standards. I cant recall shut requirements other than Latrobe Valley strikes but that may be because there was plenty of reserve.

  10. yackman

    Wattclarity notes a price spike to the statutory maxm. at 16.50 EDT on Dec 12. Friday the 21 st could be a problem. Paul McArdle (Wattclarity) also has articles up re Large Scale Solar in Nth.Q and that it may not be dispatchable due to line constraints.

  11. RobK

    Yes, there are many different clauses in these types of contracts. Some large plant has to notify of starting big gear so the generators and grid can be prepared.
    It is my understanding that some industrial comsumers get a better rate for agreeing to be shed if required.

  12. RobK

    Line constraint is something we will see a lot more of as RE penetration increases. As will issues of fault-current discrimination, islanding and ground current issues. All hidden costs of more RE.

  13. RobK

    may not be dispatchable due to line constraints.
    “Curtailment”is the word. There will be much more of it as RE increases due to the glut or famine nature of RE. Very expensive to do work-arounds.

  14. yackman

    What a great euphemism “curtailment”

  15. Roger

    Whatever will the great and good think of next to curtail our competitive advantage?

    The rest of the West is experiencing an energy revolt but there are no hi-viz frondeurs on our streets.

    Instead, we dutifully pay the higher bills necessary to incrementally destroy the grid.

    Onwards to Year Zero, comrades!

  16. Diogenes

    I doubt it. Large industrial customers often have a load shedding clause in their contract. Rolling blackout type shedding is a last resort.

    Thanks for that info, but as a normal domestic consumer I might have a case especially if the AEMO orders it – wouldn’t that be a great class action against the Feds ? Might make some muppets wake up.

  17. Fred

    Surely the solution is to put motors in the wind turbines so they are always spinning.

  18. RobK

     I might have a case
    It is common for claims to be made against suppliers for breach of contract, usually for lengthy delays to restore supply.

  19. Tim Neilson

    RobK and Dio,

    If you were dealing in a comparatively free market, there might well be a case.

    But I’d bet that the regulatory regime, or the standard contract terms for retail electricity supply, have the effect that they’re not actually obliged to supply you power, or give notice when they will or won’t.

    Like buying a weekly or monthly train pass, at least here in CFMEUistan. If they decide not to run trains you’ve got no redress.

  20. RobK

    Im not sure of the situation in other states, but in WA it is not uncommon for claims of spoilt freezers/fridges to be paid by the State where outage was not repaired in time.

  21. Dr afred Lenin

    I remember seeing an article praising monstrous solar farm in Spain , it covered a huge area and only cost $3 billion ,on further checking it produced one tenth of the power the “antiquated “ Hazelwood power station the rentseekers closed without protest from the union fascist government , one thing they at least havent blown it up like the communists did in SA. Wonder if andrews cfmeu masters refuse to let Hazelwood beblown up to protect their careers this summer after a few blackouts and protest from their members ,make themselves heroes by nationalising and taking over Hazelwood and re starting it . “Arent we great ? Fixing up the stuff up the liberals made before bruddas ?

  22. Ben

    The most likely scenario for grid collapse is during the period when wind and solar are at low outputs and a big coal or gas generator trips. The luvvies will scream “unreliable fossil fuel” and “more renewables”. The fact that no amount of renewables can cover for low wind/solar is irrelevant to them. If that is pointed out they then scream “storage”.

  23. Tim Neilson

    #2888237, posted on December 18, 2018 at 3:36 pm

    I didn’t know that.
    Still, might that just be politicians trying to mitigate a loss of votes by a big splash of taxpayers’ funds? I.e. might it be gratuitous rather than an “entitlement”?
    Of course Diogenes’ class action would probably pay off on that basis anyway, so I guess you and he are right.

  24. mareeS

    “What does load shedding cost. Is anyone allowed to know?”

    Our cat wakes us up with the magpies’ first warbles at first light, we feed her and go for a swim at the beach. The day is ours, we have dinner, watch a bit of Foxtel, Credlin, Bolt, Richo etc, and off we are to bed.

    Our energy costs are not very much, but we live a pretty good life. We eat and cook fresh food, judicious amounts of wine, but we can’t understand how people’s power bills are in the thousands of dollars per annum.

    Ausgrid recently installed a new meter in our power box, said we would be billed as a five-person household because of the number of bedrooms, even though we are two, and never here in winter, I contested, so it’s back to $140-ish a quarter because we simply open or close the doors and windows and shut off the rest of the house.

  25. We in SE Qld had two outages lasting 30 to 60 sec yesterday 17th Dec which needed resetting of clocks. A week ago had an outage lasting about 5 hrs. The outages are occurring much more frequently. Maybe have to revive my generator which is I have not use for about 8 years or buy a new one.

  26. yarpos

    MareeS, dont understan how people have big power bills? How about Australia is a big country, not everyone is a two person household, not everyone lives somwhere else in winter, commercial rates are different to residential. It really isnt hard to look beyond your own situation.

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