A draft of a script for a video to follow Wind Wont Work that is being revised for recording with a teleprompter and some other improvements.
Australia is following Germany on the transition to green energy.
What have the Germans achieved in twenty years, spending half a trillion euros or more?
They have doubled the price of domestic power.
They have seriously destabilized the grid.
At last report they have not reduced CO2 emissions since 2009.
We are clearly determined to go down the same road although we still have a long way to go. On a good day their windmills and solar farms can produce most of power they use.
But still they have failed on the three sides of the energy policy triangle. Price, Energy Security and CO2 emission reduction
That is the official word from 6th report on the progress of the energy transition.
That is the German Trifecta of Failure.
The picture tells the story. See page 8 of this guide produced by a Green advocacy group, the report waxes lyrical about all the green innovations on foot but the chart based on official shows no improvement in emission production since 2009. The document is a massive PDF file that takes for ever to download, this is the picture from page 8. They claim significant progress on CO2 emission reduction since 1991 but the gains came first from cleaning up the rundown socialist infrastructure in East Germany after the Fall of the Wall.
And then from reduced industrial activity during the Global Financial Crisis.
Nothing to do with the green energy transition. No change since 2009.
The story began in the 1980s when the German Greens became a political power and climate change became an issue.
In the 1990s the Greens had enough influence in the coalition government to achieve a comprehensive Renewable Energy Act in 2000.
In 2007 Angela Merkel drove the European Union to set ambitious Green targets.
It was all 20s.
The target date was 2020, the target for renewable energy was 20%, the target for greenhouse gas reduction 20%.
Germany led the way and others followed … Spain, Denmark, Britain, South Australia.
In 2011 the Germans decided to get serious and they set new targets.
They resolved to reduce Greenhouse gas production by 40% by 2020, 55% by 2030 and up to 95% by 2050.
They produced an official report each year so everyone would know well they were doing. In 2016 and 2017 the annual report did not appear. Clearly a red flag! There was concern about progress and the cost, revealed in a devastating report from the Audit Office on the administration of the transition.
At last the 6th official Monitoring Report appeared in 2018. It reported failure on all three sides of the “energy policy triangle”.
The three sides are Security of supply, affordability and emission reduction.
The grid staggers on the brink of collapse and the grid management has to intervene hundreds of times a year to turn off wind farms and bribe other countries to take excess power when the wind is strong.
The wind millers are still paid when they are turned off and that is handy for them but expensive for consumers and taxpayers.
The wind is all over the place as you can see from this chart [link to be provided]. That is a nightmare for grid managers. I don’t have precise numbers for the many hundreds of interventions by the German grid management but these figures for Switzerland indicate the way things go when unreliable energy is corrupting the system. Annual interventions increased from 2 in 2011 to 282 in 2018.
When the wind is weak they are pinched for power. They are missing the nuclear power stations that they closed. The others have to go in a couple of years. They are building more coal fired capacity and opening up a new coal mine. At the same time a working party is planning the exit from coal!
German power is the most expensive in the world, with Denmark and South Australia.
This chart shows how power prices increase when you have more renewable energy.
The killer blow is the failure of emission reduction – the purpose of the whole expensive and disruptive exercise.
There has been no reduction in emissions since the year 2009, almost a decade. So much for the target of 40%.
The bars show the CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2017. No reduction since 2009.
Recall that the early gains came from early cleaning up the East German industrial plants and later from the Global Financial Crisis. Nothing to do with the energy transition.
So there is the German trifecta of failure.. Go Green, spend hundreds of billions, double the price of power, destabilize the grid, and don’t reduce emissions.
All the major political parties in Australia are determined to go down the German road. Do we expect a different result?
Put that question to your elected representatives, and candidates who stand for the next election.
And check your supply of tinned food, bottled water and candles.