Some people get up early to do stunts about the weather. I got up early to work on the second chapter of a booklet about the failure of philosophers of science to warn us about the problem with alarmist climate science. The morning’s work so far.
This chapter gives some insight into the way alarm about the climate has persisted despite a strong record of failed predictions and prophecies. Some of the most striking examples are selected among the vast number that would fill a very large book. These alarms can be regarded as a laughing matter in hindsight because they demonstrate the ongoing power of the various “end of the world” obsession that has spawned cults over and over again through history. The following chapter examines a list of issues in more detail because they are raised all the time with the appearance of scientific backing.
The failure of general circulation models
Models are treated more thoroughly in Chapter x and they are treated briefly here because the failed predictions of models provide the excuse or the inspiration for most of the alarming stories that are told about every other issue of concern. The biggest problem for alarmism is the very little evidence of any harm from the one degree of warming that we have experienced since the industrial revolution and the vary obvious benefit of the warming since the Little Ice Age when the river Thames froze and crops failed all over Europe. The models predict or project suitably alarming futures and they are clearly very fit for that purpose (fitness for purpose is the primary criterion for the merit of models as explained in Chapter x). Everyone knows that the models “run hot” and that is conceded in the IPCC literature but they do not concede that the degree of “hotness” disqualifies them as tools for policy and planning. Roy Spencer produced the chart that demonstrates the failure of the models up to 2013 and I have yet to see a comparable chart produced by the IPCC since that time to show that the models have become more realistic.
Examples to follow
The population bomb
The end of ice and snow
Disappearing islands and coastlines
Climate refugees – one failed case in NZ.
The population bomb
The current climate of alarm emerged out of other concerns about the future of the planet voiced above all by the Stanford University professor Paul Ehlrich who 1968 published The Population Bomb:
By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people.
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme published a report in which it claimed that the world would have at least 50 million “climate refugees” by 2010.
Time for a yoga session and a nourishing breakfast.
People are invited to submit their favourite examples of failed predictions (with links).
Comments have provided valuable references in the past, I am thinking especially of a page full of links to examples of scientists abused and harassed. Now that I am writing with a plan these things can get slotted into the proper place in the manuscript.
The idea is to have a 40,000 word booklet written for the any interested person with an electronic “shadow” with more complex arguments and a mass of links to every topic under the climate sun.
Most of the philosophy will be in the shadow and the booklet will just provide a simplified overview.
THE DOGS THAT DIDN’T BARK. PHILOSOPHERS ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL!
1 The seldom-counted costs of fighting “carbon pollution”.
2 Failed Prophecies of Doom
3 The alleged damage of warming. False alarms all the way down.
4 The 97.4% consensus on warming and CO2. What it really means.
5 How we got into this situation – the Dots .
6 The language of alarmism
7 Philosophy and the rise of post normal science
8 Winsberg on philosophy and climate science
9 The political organization of climate science: