I thought it was a 50-50 and so it has turned out. The Coalition was always in with a real chance, not that I wasn’t both thrilled and surprised on the night. Let me take you to the post of a couple of days back: Going for broke.
Labor began the campaign with a kind of certainty that has now evaporated. And because they felt so certain, they were almost actually truthful about the kinds of things they would do. They would import more voting herds irrespective of the effect on our cities and the economy. They would pursue a green agenda to the very last measure of stupidity. They would waste even more money and more prodigiously than in the past. They believe the millennial vote will outweigh the effect on retirees whose incomes may be savaged.
This is a pivotal election. Either Labor finds there are limits by losing the election when they thought it was all in hand, or they win and become a modern version of Whitlam.
The ALP was so certain the election was in the bag that they vastly over-reached that aside from their rustidons, ended up turning the country off completely. They underestimated Scott Morrison, they believed Turnbull and Son continuing to slag the Government represented the views of the Liberal Party generally, they were convinced about the universal appeal of climate change, they thought they could get away with plundering the elderly to transfer wealth to others. They thought they could get away with opening the borders. They went all in, and lost, big time.
I also think that Tony Abbott had it right when he said that the focus on his electorate distracted the ALP from its larger ambitions, but also that they thought that in bringing Tony down that this was a sign of a greater appeal than was warranted by the facts, as they are now revealed.
Meanwhile, Morrison ran a Donald Trump campaign, not in style since PDT is unique, but in the direction of his appeal. The Libs went after the deplorable vote, with their appeal to hard-working Australians who wish to get on by succeeding in their own worlds in their own way. And the give away at the end of Morrison’s speech last night was when he ended with, “God Bless, Australia”. He is our Donald Trump.