Jo Nova’s Coronavirus update. How it kills and how we can be saved

Pulling no punches.

The great news is ICU staff are getting much better at keeping people alive when they get ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) which can happen with other diseases (like Influenza). Seems, the ICUs can keep 84% alive while they wait for the inflammation to subside and the damage to heal. Though the DIY version at home probably won’t be so effective.

Not enough beds

Obviously, this explains my obsessive interest in the percentage needing ICU care and also the Ro (rate of reproduction or spread). With a shortage of ICU beds, slowing the spread makes a life-and-death difference to state the bleeding obvious. To bore you again: in Australia we have about 1 ICU bed per 12000 people or 2,000 ICU beds nationally.

Check out the Ro epidemiology curve written here Jan 31st: Corona virus and those exponential curves. .. The only way to reduce the R0 to zer0 is to “Stop The Flights”. The next best option (far distant second) are mass lockdowns, closure of factories, schools, offices, etc.

As a reader wrote to me yesterday: It’s not practical to close the borders. My reply: It’s not practical to kill 100,000 people either but one or the other may happen.  Do the maths, WHO estimates 1% CFR (Case Fatality Rate. Let’s be optimistic, call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000; Canada, 175,000; New Zealand, 25,000, USA, 1.6m; UK, 300,000. Geddit?

 

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91 Responses to Jo Nova’s Coronavirus update. How it kills and how we can be saved

  1. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    I disbelieve anything optimistic that any government has to say about this virus – Prime Minister, health minister or health bureaucrat, from any country. Their central, dominant interest must be health protection but it clearly is not.

    The World Health Organisation is utterly useless. It is run by palookas like that Rudd sheila for Pete’s sake! … who cannot even spell “honest”, let alone know what it means. The executive board is 34 nations – they include Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, Zambia, Burkina Faso (say what?), probably Haiti and a whole lot of other failed tribes of no consequence – directing how the civilised world should keep is people healthy. Fabulous – they are barely literate, you can forget them.

    Too often in the past fortnight goverments have been announcing that it is “safe to go out again”, to head off to school, to visit shopping centres, to return to the air conditioned office, to dine in restaurants and to travel. They might as well hand over the microphone to whichever lobby group turned up at the Prime Minister’s door insisting they say so.

    The demanding unpleasant little Irish p00ve from Qantas will have been throwing his weight around Canberra on Week One protecting his airline’s cash flow and his massive pay packet, followed by a conga line of tourist associations, the retail traders representative, heads of commerce flogging insurance and bank loans, the English language schools and universities who rely on their Asian students for their very survival, and so on. Not one of these people has any interest in public health protection – its someone else’s problem. They will lie handsomely to safeguard their corner.

    Further, we have a government and a bureaucracy that is still shipping in illegal Centrelinkers from North Africa, the Middle East and other primitive places, people who routinely have a bog in the street and who don’t bother bathing. When they spit everywhere and shove their dirty mitts into the bowl from which the reffo next to them takes his next mouthful – and contract a gutful of Corona Virus 123 by hundreds – these public servants will ship ’em in by the truckload to the same hospital wards as Australians, because diversity is our strength. With public officials that stupid what sane man would entrust their health to their sincere announcements and their perverted system?

  2. Kae

    Hear, hear, Mick

    We’re on a hiding to nothing.

  3. Howard Hill

    After Mick’s post there’s nothing left to say except good luck, we’re gunna need it!

  4. Except that closing the borders is racist. Isn’t that what it implies?

  5. flyingduk

    Our governments are schizophrenic: if there is a real ’emergency’ posing genuine threat, they down play it (think NCOV19), if there isn’t, they make one up (think climate change).

  6. mem

    If all that money wasted on a non-problem (ie climate change) had been spent on hospitals and other services we would now be in a far better position to deal with a real problem such as NCOV19.

  7. PB

    ICU-level care has barely enough beds, and skilled Nurses, for the existing demand let alone a large-scale outbreak. Nursing care of ARDS is complex, heavy, and requires a lot of supplies, many of which come from???? yep, China. The fact that, yes we can save people doesn’t mean we can do it an an industrial scale. There is going to be brutal Medical triage of the kind not seen before in this country. There will have to be.

  8. Tom

    Spot on, Mick. Great post.

  9. PB

    From mem: “If all that money wasted on a non-problem (ie climate change) had been spent on hospitals and other services we would now be in a far better position to deal with a real problem such as NCOV19.”

    Absolutely, and throw into the mix the unreliability of the grid caused by the pursuit of idiotic climate fantasies at a time when reliable power will be potentially the difference between life and death.

    Hasn’t Greta suddenly come across as irrelevant and meaningless all of a sudden.

  10. Ed Case

    Do the maths, WHO estimates 1% CFR (Case Fatality Rate. Let’s be optimistic, call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000;

    Every death over the last 2 months has been of a geriatric with poor lung health the vast majority being east asians so the the 125,000 deaths figure for Australia is hysterical.
    Perhaps the author is saying that even one death is unacceptable.
    What would the indirect death toll from all causes be if Morrison shut the borders for 3 months?

  11. shatterzzz

    Definitely,full-on with Mick’s summation .. If this virus was a real problem then why is the gummint exempting its maaates from the travel restrictions .. appears only the small folk with no gummint connections are required to abide by the travel bans ..

  12. Archivist

    Every death over the last 2 months has been of a geriatric with poor lung health

    That’ just not true.

  13. Sinclair Davidson

    OHMEGAWD. WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE.

    The death rate is very high for people over the age of 50 in those countries with poorer health systems. The death rate is extremely high for people over the age of 80.

  14. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    We are at the beginning of an exponential curve. As a society, the best thing we can do to maintain first world hospital services is as Jo Nova says and try to flatten it out a bit by the usual measures: travel bans from heavily infected areas and as it gathers local pace the banning of gatherings in crowds. Schools are a problem as they also mind children while parents work. Keeping children in small relatively separated groups at schools might help a bit. That should be possible with different staggered lunchtimes for different years or even classes restricted to separate parts of the playgrounds etc and no assemblies.

    Such local level thinking is where we need to look now, as well as state and national responses.

  15. Ed Case

    That’ just not true.

    Theres always the odd exception. 700 of the 3500 on the diamond princess were infected 6 died
    even though the response on board was hopeless and passengers were [entirely?] elderly east asians.
    As usual PC hysteria is overtaking common sense.

  16. mem

    The point Nova is making is that the pace of infection spread will potentially overcrowd the hospitals and that ICU care may be compromised.

  17. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Steve’s Kate’s previous thread on this also generated some discussion of something else we will certainly see more of: voluntary or even mandatory self-isolation. This thread is disappearing off the page now so though.

  18. dover_beach

    The problem with COVID-19 is the rate of severe cases and high transmissibility. If about 15% of cases need hospitalization how is the health system going to cope with that if you very large numbers infected?

  19. Archivist

    700 of the 3500 on the diamond princess were infected 6 died

    More Diamond Princess passengers will die.
    Out of the 705 passengers infected, 6 have died and 10 have recovered. The rest are still infected.

  20. Sinclair, does the mean that corona will save us from the WARMING?

  21. Archivist

    The death rate is very high for people over the age of 50 in those countries with poorer health systems. The death rate is extremely high for people over the age of 80.

    The mortality rates are unkonwn, and as with previous epidemics, won’t be calculable with certainty for some time.

    OHMEGAWD. WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE.

    That’s certainly how Xi Jingping seems to have responded. In an attempt to slow the outbreak he took a wrecking ball to the Chinese economy.

    I hope that it’s not as bad as the governments of the world seem to think it is.

  22. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    It is not PC hysteria to be realistic without panic. We still intend to go on our Panama cruise next week although I do have some reservations about that. The company have contacted us to reassure re their screening procedures but there are obvious limits to the efficacy of those. I would like to know more of their intentions and planning if they do get a case presentation on board. We must hope for the best, as everyone must do for this coming six months. Cancelling everything is an over-reaction at this stage but we have a weather eye on this coming week.

  23. Ed Case

    Hospitals in China having success with giving patients oxygen. Common symptom is low CO2 volume in the bloodstream preventing oxygen release from hemoglobin. The Bohr Effect. Common in mouthbreathers which goes some way toward explaining why elderly people with lung issues are dying yet the very young are unaffected?

  24. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Archivist is correct, the overall mortality rate is unknown. Data is corrupted everywhere by locational and exposure factors. One sure thing is that this virus is a great threat to the elderly in poor health, as found in nursing homes.

  25. Sinclair Davidson

    We still intend to go on our Panama cruise next week although I do have some reservations about that.

    On my recent cruise to Antarctica the cruise company simply excluded individuals who had been to China (or come from China) in the previous two weeks.

  26. Sinclair Davidson

    Sinclair, does the mean that corona will save us from the WARMING?

    Why anyone drinks corona is a mystery.

  27. areff

    I hope that it’s not as bad as the governments of the world seem to think it is.

    It’s worse. The balm of politicians/managers’ words would have us believe the mortality is rate is low by comparing those “cured” with those known to be infected. A more apt view compares survivors with the dead and regards those under treatment as off the table until they fall into one or other of the cured/dead camps.

    Go to Trove and look up the clips for the Spanish Flu in 1919/1920. We’ll be lucky to get out of it that lightly this time.

  28. Ed Case

    mem at 9:49 am

    The point Nova is making is that the pace of infection spread will potentially overcrowd the hospitals and that ICU care may be compromised.

    The assumption Nova is making is that every one of 26 million Australians is equally susceptible and we need to proceed on that basis. That assumption flies in the face of all the evidence so far.

  29. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Some treatment success has been reported when antibody containing plasma taken from recovered patients is introduced into those who are severely ill. Clinical details re this are patchy and mostly poorly reported, perhaps better known by clinicians within their own networks. Various treatments are obviously being tried especially with new antivirals. Vaccine work is well underway too but a good one will take a year.

  30. Roger

    If about 15% of cases need hospitalization how is the health system going to cope with that if you very large numbers infected?

    Not to worry; they’ll “innovate solutions” (quoting the government’s emergency plan).

  31. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Yes, Jo Nova is taking a worst case approach. But so did the Chinese.

  32. liliana

    Wouldn’t go on a cruise at the moment if you paid me. My neighbours are doctor’s (one e- military) and they have cancelled their O/S trip and cruise at great expense. Cruise ships are floating incubator’s. A colleague described the hygiene (lack of) on her Mediterranean cruise and that was enough for me. It is impossible to remain aseptic in such an environment.

  33. OldOzzie

    The Coronavirus Outbreak: How Democratic Taiwan Outperformed Authoritarian China

    Taiwan’s example proves that the free flow of information is the best treatment for the coronavirus outbreak.

    On the contrary, Taiwan, a country that has been excluded from the WHO for decades thanks to China’s political pressure, has demonstrated that the better way to contain the coronavirus is not to quarantine news about epidemic, but to make it easier and more convenient for people to access relevant information.

    Even though Taiwan has not been kept officially informed by the WHO about the epidemic, the Taiwanese government promptly undertook measures to prevent the spread of the virus in Taiwan in late December last year, and organized the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) in January 2020. Since the set-up of the CECC, it has been holding a press conference almost every day to announce the latest policy and information on the epidemic, and to clarify rumors that are circulating on social media. The Taiwanese government also uses digital tools to communicate with the public amid the virus outbreak. For example, Taiwan’s Ministry of Health and Welfare and many Taiwanese politicians of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have used their official social media accounts on outlets like Facebook, LINE, and YouTube to keep the public well informed on everything from the number of available face masks to the updated policy.

    Taiwan’s active civil society also plays a critical role in this crisis. To save people time in looking for stores selling face masks, a Taiwanese software engineer built an online real-time map that can show where masks are stocked in convenience stores and drugstores across the island. Following this idea, Digital Minister Audrey Tang, a coordinator between the government and private sector, rapidly developed a better version of the information platform with government data.

    Another case of civic participation is the engagement of Taiwanese fact-check institutions and groups, including Taiwan FactCheck Center (TFC) and MyGoPen. They make an effort to fact-check and correct disinformation or misinformation on the epidemic, which mostly circulates online, meanwhile disseminating the right information to the public as third-party independent institutions.

    Armed with transparent and sufficient information on the coronavirus epidemic, Taiwanese people actively follow the government’s policies and take actions to curb the spread of virus individually by washing hands and wearing masks. Therefore, even though the self-ruled island is very close to China, the number of infection cases in Taiwan is still low (32 cases, as of February 26) compared to neighboring countries like South Korea (1,261 cases) and Japan (885 cases). Even though the community spread of the virus in Taiwan is looming and seems inevitable, the Taiwanese government and people have shown that they are determined to work together to fight against COVID-19.

    However, these contrasting situations between China and Taiwan have not only resulted from their different governance methods. Most importantly, the disparity is because of the totally contrary political logic found in a democracy versus an authoritarian state.

  34. Ed Case

    Lizzie says Data is corrupted everywhere by locational and exposure factors.
    Okay lets say Beijing id lying about the scale. We know the outbreak started as early as november if not before we know the incubation is 2 weeks and we know 2 way traffic between wuhan and Oz has been unrestricted for most of that time.
    Given its now 4 months later why havent we already seen mass outbreaks in Australia ?

  35. Sinclair Davidson

    A colleague described the hygiene (lack of) on her Mediterranean cruise and that was enough for me.

    You need to choose your cruise company wisely. Those that do not manage on-board health should be avoided.

  36. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    John Barry’s book ‘The Great Influenza’ makes fascinating but horrifying reading. Instead of world airtravel they had the dislocations of the First World War and troopships full of young men, some in poor condition from trench warfare, to spread the virus internationally. Those cities like Philadelphia which refused to enact quarantine measures suffered very badly for their failures.

    Without antibiotics, secondary infections carried away many, whilest those who rdceive good home nursing care fared somewhat better than those in the large understaffed emergenct infection-pits called hospitals did somewhat better. With first world contemporary medicine and alert public health responses we should not expect quite the raw surprises delivered by the 1918-1919 epidemic, although some lesser waves of infection and possibly re-infection might occur now as they did then.

  37. Sinclair Davidson

    Indeed.

    Right now on the data I have seen this is looking bad but not catastrophic.

  38. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Sorry, confused sentence above. On my phone minding a ten month old baby. Sentence should convey that home care in the 1918-19 epidemic gave better outcomes than the poor emergency hospital care available then.

  39. COVID-19 is the new version of old man’s friend. Check out the mortality rates by age.

  40. Ed Case

    Some treatment success has been reported when antibody containing plasma taken from recovered patients is introduced into those who are severely ill.

    Other sources claim that infection with COVID-2 doesn’t confer immunity.
    If thats right and everybody is equally susceptible then carriers are going to have to be quarantined for quite a while absent a draconian approach.

  41. woolfe

    Hey, lucky me, am off to Turin on Saturday! Dream incubator Perth to London then BA 737 incubator to Turin, then off to French Alps skiing for a week, 1 night in Turin then Alitalia Incubator Turin-Athens etc etc

    I promise not to post for 2 weeks when (if?) i get back.

  42. Archivist

    David:

    COVID-19 is the new version of old man’s friend. Check out the mortality rates by age.

    Check them out, using what? The official Chinese data…. out of Wuhan? That data is worthless.

  43. mem

    The assumption Nova is making is that every one of 26 million Australians is equally susceptible and we need to proceed on that basis. That assumption flies in the face of all the evidence so far.

    This table is now 4 days out of date and gives a break down of cases per million population for affected countries at that time. https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/COVID-19_4.png

    At face value it supports your statement about not to panic. However from a health planning point of view I would caution that 15% of Australians are aged 65 or over, which in total numbers 3.8 million people.
    If 0.01% of aged over 65 infected and need ICU then 380 beds taken up , if 0.05 then 1900 beds, if 0.10 then 3800 beds and if 1.00% then 38,000 beds. We currently have approximately 2000 ICU beds in our system Australia wide. They are very rarely vacant with high turnover as patients are moved out to wards.

  44. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Sinclair, we’ve mostly cruised with Cunard who have exemplary hygiene on board. This time it is Holland America, about whom we have heard good reports. So far they seem to be taking responsible actions. Hope Antarctica was interesting and the other passengers a nice lot to share the trip with. And that the cruise kitchens fed you well.

  45. Arky

    This thread breaks down into two groups: Those who understand exponential functions and those who apparently don’t.
    When the load of severe cases reaches a certain number the system breaks down.
    You don’t want to be in any contact with that system in breakdown. Not for care, not to visit loved ones and not for employment.
    Our emergency departments are already close to that point now, without an extra load growing at an exponential rate, from a low base and where the unit on the x- axis is six to eight days, giving people a false sense of security.
    How does that work?
    Last week there’s one case. This week there are two more. Next week there are four more. The week after eight more.
    And it all seems very manageable in the initial stages.

  46. Arky

    There are a number of worrying factors for when it starts to bite here.
    The biggest is that we have a large group of people who use our emergency departments for primary care.
    This situation has been allowed to continue. Insane.
    Low income folks take themselves off the the local emergency department when any member of their family is sick for any reason, from a sore throat through to a sprained ankle.

  47. Arky

    Sinclair, we’ve mostly cruised with Cunard who have exemplary hygiene on board.

    ..
    You get one case on board and no country will allow you to dock.
    You are insane.

  48. Sinclair Davidson

    You get one case on board and no country will allow you to dock.

    The Westerdam customers got free wifi, free booze, their money back and another cruise ticket.

    Awesome.

  49. Sinclair Davidson

    This time it is Holland America, about whom we have heard good reports.

    Yes – I have cruised with them.

  50. JC

    That ship cruise which was halted and lots of people came up with symptoms is possibly the best “experiment” we’ve had with the virus.

    I haven’t seen the stats in terms of how many have died vs the contraction rate.

  51. old bloke

    Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
    #3340453, posted on March 2, 2020 at 10:04 am

    It is not PC hysteria to be realistic without panic. We still intend to go on our Panama cruise next week although I do have some reservations about that.

    Lizzie, are you following the plight of the MSC Meraviglia? It was denied docking access in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and initially Mexico, though permission was later given. It’s now back in Florida though there has been some unruly behaviour when the crew had to pepper spray some guests. Not an ideal holiday journey, better include eye wash lotion in your medical kit.

  52. Archivist

    That ship cruise which was halted and lots of people came up with symptoms is possibly the best “experiment” we’ve had with the virus.

    JC the ship was the Diamond Princess. 705 passengers were infected. So far, 10 have ‘recovered’, and 7 have died. All the other cases are still infected and 36 are in a critical condition.

    You can track Covid-19 on the Diamond Princess and everywhere else here. (This one, worldometers, has an easier-to-access detailed breakdown than the other dashboards).

  53. JC

    there has been some unruly behaviour when the crew had to pepper spray some guests

    They pepper sprayed 80 plus infirms? Lawyers must have been on the wharf when the passengers disembarked.

  54. Struth

    That’s certainly how Xi Jingping seems to have responded. In an attempt to slow the outbreak he took a wrecking ball to the Chinese economy.

    I hope that it’s not as bad as the governments of the world seem to think it is.

    If Xi has convinced those governments that it is, what are the benefits to China and it’s smoke machine street theatre?
    A wrecking b a l l to a totalitarian controlled and owned economy of slaves………………bullshit, it has UN approval to do as it wishes, because it would anyway, while the virus shuts down free-er economies that have been shackled by enviro-sabotage and cannot just restart once stopped and bankrupt.
    The media are doing it’s bidding, it’s war from China, and they hold all the factories, and Trump’s America is becoming too much of a threat to it’s global domination plans.
    China can sacrifice a few months of what could be termed virus strike, there is no wrecking of it’s economy with this stunt, it’s totalitarian, it can sacrifice now to avoid the real wrecking b a ll a USA with another four years of Trump would do.

    All the panic and lies and exaggerations are coming from the left, what does that tell ya?

    So it kills a few of it’s own and kills many more overseas, what’s not to love about this from a chicom perspective?

  55. Enoch Root

    Persian Chessboard problem?

    As Carl Sagan wrote: exponential growth cannot go on forever. But, in this case, the system could collapse sooner than this exponential reaching its limits…

    Scary indeed.

  56. Pyrmonter

    @ Enoch

    Sagan’s (and the environmentalists’) insistence that growth is restricted by physical resources show their misunderstanding of economics. The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.

  57. old bloke

    JC
    #3340591, posted on March 2, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    They pepper sprayed 80 plus infirms? Lawyers must have been on the wharf when the passengers disembarked.

    No, just a few unruly passengers who appeared to be attacking the ship’s musicians. Maybe they didn’t like the music? (article here)

    I noticed on the side-bar that another ship sailing from Sydney has been denied landing rights on some South Pacific islands.

  58. Ed Case

    mem at 11:12 am

    However from a health planning point of view I would caution that 15% of Australians are aged 65 or over, which in total numbers 3.8 million people.
    If 0.01% of aged over 65 infected and need ICU then 380 beds taken up

    What we know from the fatalities so far is that they are [all?] Male all much older than 65 and apart from the 85 yo man that died in Italy and possibly the 2 x 88 yo in Iran, they are all east asians.
    Just counting over 75 males and we’re down to well under a million in australia.
    Male east asian over 75? <50,000?
    PC is the problem insisting that COVID-19 can't discriminate by ethnicity.
    Can a virus be taken before the courts under S 18[c]?
    I don't know perhaps that virus should watch its step?

  59. PC is the problem insisting that COVID-19 can’t discriminate by ethnicity.

    Stupidity is the problem for people insisting that it can.

  60. mem

    Ed Case
    #3340632, posted on March 2, 2020 at 12:56 pm
    Your post on age and ethnicity is misleading. Please read the table in the attached reference. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

  61. PB

    “The biggest is that we have a large group of people who use our emergency departments for primary care.”

    This is certainly true, though sometimes its because its a couple of weeks wait to see a GP when you need something now or very soon so that’s one reason why this happens more and more. There are really a litany of presentation reasons that drain the public purse and resource for no valid reason, or benefit.

  62. Ed Case

    Hi monty
    You would be correct if i was insisting that it can. What i’m saying is that so far all the evidence points a certain way. Even if you accept that Beijing lies about everything the evidence still points that certain way.
    Discounting the possibility that we’re dealing with a sexist ageist racist virus with a bad attitude we’re still left with the question that no one wants to ask so i’ll put forward a proposition.
    1. Many chinese are heavy rice eaters all their lives. 2. Men generally eat more than women. 3. Rice is a mucus rich pulse that deposits layers of sticky mucus as it moves through the bowel. 4. The bowel adsorbs toxins from the bloodstream . 5. The older the rice eater gets the less well the adsorption functions due to the toxic mucus layers. 6. The lungs are the other route to expel toxins from the bloodstream. 7. This is hard on the lungs owner and causes excess production of ACE-2 receptors. 8. Along comes COVID-19 which sticks to those receptors and we’re off to the races.

  63. Wow, that is Bird-level stuff from you Ed. You may have avian flu.

  64. Jo Nova:

    As a reader wrote to me yesterday: It’s not practical to close the borders. My reply: It’s not practical to kill 100,000 people either but one or the other may happen. Do the maths, WHO estimates 1% CFR (Case Fatality Rate. Let’s be optimistic, call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000; Canada, 175,000; New Zealand, 25,000, USA, 1.6m; UK, 300,000. Geddit?

    The issue here, young Jo, is that the government action is to hit the knees every night and pray there are no deaths.
    They are utterly unprepared both physically and emotionally to actually do their jobs. There is damn all excess medical resources available, not even a mothballed hospital in each state to be called into service in event of an emergency.
    There needs to be an international airport with secure accommodation and the ability to hold people for quarantine somewhere in the Northern Territory, to which ALL international flights are diverted when necessary.
    And we require a government with the brains and the political will to call that emergency and the Morrison government is looking like a sheep caught in a set of truck headlights outside Dubbo at 0200.

  65. Ed Case

    mem
    at 1:25 pm

    Ed Case at 12:56 pm
    Your post on age and ethnicity is misleading. Please read the table in the attached reference. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

    The big problem there are the credibility of the sources the WHO and the CCDC.
    Table 2 gives the risk of death from infection for over 80s as 110 times those aged 39 and under.
    The risk of death for men is 1.7x that for women.
    Table 3 states the risk of death for infected people with no pre existing condition as 0.9%
    The data thats missing is the ages of the people with the existing conditions and what their risk is compared to people of the same age with no pre existing conditions.

  66. Archivist

    All the panic and lies and exaggerations are coming from the left, what does that tell ya?

    What lies and exaggerations are you referring to?

  67. Archivist

    The data thats missing is the ages of the people with the existing conditions and what their risk is compared to people of the same age with no pre existing conditions.

    That level of granular detail isn’t going to be released for public consumption and nor should it. Most people wouldn’t know what to do with it, and it would likely be a breach of privacy.

  68. Shy Ted

    If the illegal Centrelinkers from North Africa, the Middle East and other primitive places caught COVID I reckon it would be the COVID that would die.
    Oh, Sinc, The death rate is very high for people over the age of 50 in those countries with poorer health systems. The death rate is extremely high for people over the age of 80. That’s your readership. And I include Oz’ health system which is chock a block.

  69. Helen

    The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.

    The age of the horse drawn omnibus did not end because we ran out of horses.

  70. Ed Case

    Hi Archivist
    People are saying shut Australia down and cause an economic and human disaster because the hospitals may not be able to cope on the basis of information from WHO and the Chinese Communist Party then in the next breath the same people are saying critical bulk data about the age/health status of the victims can’t be released because of privacy issues?

  71. JC

    The age of the horse drawn omnibus did not end because we ran out of horses.

    Large cities would have stunk like hell with horse shit everywhere. Absolutely awful places.

  72. Ed Case

    Tetanus declined drastically once they got rid of horses in the streets. The chances of dying from a kick in the head off a horse also went down.

  73. Tel

    … information from WHO and the Chinese Communist Party …

    No need to repeat yourself.

  74. Adam Davidson

    I’m 80+ and immune compromised. Judging by all that’s going on perhaps it’s better for me to get the bloody virus sooner rather than later. At least then the ICU beds could be free.

  75. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV)

    China can sacrifice a few months of what could be termed virus strike, there is no wrecking of it’s economy with this stunt, it’s totalitarian, it can sacrifice now to avoid the real wrecking b a ll a USA with another four years of Trump would do.

    chicoms print money, the only sacrifice is a few thousand old folks out 1.4 billion.

  76. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Well, we will see in a week tomorrow when we head off to the US. Can always cancel then and tour more by car as we intend to do post-cruise anyway. Don’t feel too inclined to cancel an interesting cruise yet. It is 17 days 🙂

  77. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    The ship denied entry to 3 ports was Italian.

  78. kae

    There might not be such a high death rate in Australia as we have first world medical treatments available.

    What about the cost?

  79. Boambee John

    m0nty
    #3340633, posted on March 2, 2020 at 12:58 pm
    PC is the problem insisting that COVID-19 can’t discriminate by ethnicity.

    Stupidity is the problem for people insisting that it can.

    There you have it, confirmed by the world’s top virologist.

  80. Ed Case

    There might not be such a high death rate in Australia as we have first world medical treatments available.

    What about the cost?

    Go to public hospital casualty with a small cut on the hand that may or may not need a stitch get booked in for surgery under general anaesthetic pick up staph infection go off work for 3 months.
    Thats the Australian Health Model- ransom the carcass then leave the victim worse off than he was before.
    As of yesterday the hospitals in china are giving the patients oxygen.
    That seems to be their main problem even though the atmosphere is 21% oxygen these people can’t utilise it due to the virus and thats why they fall ill. Some have had complete organ failure a couple hours after first symptoms.

  81. Judge Dredd

    The UN, media and governments = “Corona virus is really bad and we’re all going to die”

    The UN, media and governments = “Climate Change is really bad and we’re all going to die”

    Hmmm, I’m beginning to sense something is not quite right, but what the heck I’m going all in on this UN and government narrative and will commence running around with my hair on fire and give the government all the power it needs to stop this evil threat.

  82. Sinclair Davidson

    … we’re all going to die

    This is true. But unlikely from either of those two things.

  83. Porter

    So first case of person to person tranamission in Australia. Cat’s out of the bag now.

  84. mem

    Sinclair Davidson
    #3340880, posted on March 2, 2020 at 4:56 pm

    … we’re all going to die

    This is true. But unlikely from either of those two things.

    Amen

  85. Porter

    The Australian I think it was printed mortality rates for each age group.

  86. Porter

    I can’t read Andrew Bolt’s column but he seems to be implying that we are risking ourselves because we haven’t stopped Italians coming here. What he doesn’t get is that Italy has a transparent health system and they release good stats. We know what we’re dealing with their. Countries like Iran and China don’t which is why they are a hell of a lot more risky.

  87. PB

    “That seems to be their main problem even though the atmosphere is 21% oxygen these people can’t utilise it due to the virus and thats why they fall ill. Some have had complete organ failure a couple hours after first symptoms.”

    21% is all you need to work with until the respiratory membrane swells and thickens.

  88. Ravensclaw

    Apologies if this has been asked.

    What is the rate of re-infection of the Corona Virus? Do people build a resistance? If so how long does it last?

    Kind Regards

  89. Ed Case

    Some say immunity isn’t conferred and the person can be reinfected.
    How they know that who knows but theres a lot of information out there and it can’t all be right.

  90. Archivist

    What is the rate of re-infection of the Corona Virus? Do people build a resistance? If so how long does it last?

    The disease is brand new. Many things are not known about it.

    There have been reports of patients being reinfected, and of immune resistance being short-lived, but it’s early days so stay tuned.

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