Tuesday Forum: March 17, 2020

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5,116 Responses to Tuesday Forum: March 17, 2020

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  1. Fisky

    Fisk, rather an piles of abuse, can you say what Chinese did wrong after initial denials and complacency?

    Boris seeing as you are genuinely interested in knowing something about this issue, and not relitigating a 60-year old grudge against the Liberal Party, I’ll say this.

    Firstly, there is no unified Chinese response. Their system is highly fragmented all the way down to the neighbourhood level. But things that were done which I agree with include:
    -Shutting down Hubei from 23rd of January onward
    -Compulsory temperature checking at all access points to public facilities, as well as residential compounds, which started outside Hubei around the 3rd of February
    -Promoting regular hand-washing, good hygiene, and face-masks in public
    -Shutting down schools and universities indefinitely
    -Requiring ride-share companies to seal off the cabin and disinfect the seats
    -There are a few others that were no doubt effective

    Now these come from a mess of central, provincial, district, and neighbourhood level directives, but they were all sensible.

    What was less sensible was a few initiatives that came from the national government both before and since January 23, including:
    -banning Taiwan from the WHO
    -ignoring the WHO and CDC’s requests to help in Wuhan
    -preventing Taiwanese evacuation flights from leaving Wuhan, then switching the passenger lists to included Corona-infected mainland citozens
    -spreading vile conspiracy theories about the US military spreading the Coronavirus in Wuhan
    -claiming the virus has a “foreign” origin in an obvious smokescreen for any secondary outbreaks once normal work is resumed
    -failing to send top-level leadership on a visit to the stricken province until far too late, which reduced public trust in the authorities

    It’s strange that all of the blatherskates calling for more “cooperation” with that regime do not seem to think China’s actions are the main impediment to cooperation.

  2. Fat Tony

    1735099
    #3362602, posted on March 18, 2020 at 7:01 pm
    Does a certain student know plagiarism is a big no-no

    After 50 plus years of study in three different institutions I’ve forgotten more about plagiarism than you’ve learned.
    For example, a scrofulous blog like Catallaxy is not a thesis.
    I’m surprised you have to be told that.

    I try to avoid this fuck-knuckle’s posts because they generally make me feel ill – such shit coming from someone that old. Spent a lifetime becoming progressively more stupid and bitter.

    So Numbers, if this is what you consider Catallaxy to be, why don’t you just fuck right off and keep away.

    So here’s my direction: Fuck off, and when you get there, fuck off again, and just keep fucking off until you go through that rip in the space-time continuum from whence you came. This is not your world.

  3. Arky

    There go my gigs.
    ..
    six fucking deaths

    ..
    How many deaths are required to make it worth you missing a gig?
    Genuine question, not a “think of the grannies”.
    Put an actual number on it, where you would go: Yeah, fair enough, I’ll do without the gig money for a few weeks?

  4. Trump’s rules of debating. There are no rules.

    Easy when you know, and she knows you know, where the bodies at.
    #Pimpgame
    MAGA

  5. Porter

    That’s what I’ve been thinking C.L . Although it depends on whether Judd has submitted her written arguments as requested. I know that Walker has. If they have done that then I personally would expect 2 or 3 days for them to come to a decision (and hopefully acquitting immediately while publishing the judgement later). The High Court is not hearing any new cases because of the virus scare but they are still handing down judgements and also considering leave for appeals which they usuallybdo on paper – Pearl case was unusual in that respect. What I mean by that is they have more time now to actually hand down a quick judgement.

  6. vlad

    Thursday tomorrow and nothing from the High Court re Pell.
    No joy?

    I can’t even see a court list for tomorrow. The calendar says they’re sitting tomorrow and Friday.

    Wu Flu is disrupting hearings, but not judgments.

    After this week they’re off until Easter Tuesday, 14 April 2020.

  7. Leigh Lowe

    However I believe that Australian anti-discrimination laws would make that illegal.

    Isn’t it just another form of rationing?

    Dunno if that is likely to be enforced under the circumstances.

    Probably not.
    And let’s have the names of those said to be discriminated against.
    I’ll bet that is a line that many of the toilet paper tourists used … waaaaaacist.

  8. Arky

    Arky, I remember your Taiwan video from a number of moons ago. It seems that the countries doing best from the get go (e.g Taiwan) and later on (after wasting 3 weeks – mainland) use temperature monitoring relentlessly. High temperature = isolation. Statistically it doesn’t matter about false positives and false negatives, if they are 50% right they are much better off.

    ..
    Possible.
    Could also have to do with the fact they were better prepared after the SARS thing, and also, they didn’t trust the information coming out of China, but did their own thing. also ignored WHO.

  9. Leigh Lowe

    Top o’ de new toilet roll to yez all.

  10. egg_

    How many deaths are required to make it worth you missing a gig?

    What’s the National road toll?

  11. BorisG…never argue with a Jooooish woman.

    That’s raycis, yo!
    🤣🤣
    We all throwing Roman salutes. Semites&gentiles.
    For real.
    Hugo Boss, get out of that mausoleum and design some snappy street threads, pronto!

  12. mh

    The virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces, according to a new study from National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University scientists in The New England Journal of Medicine. The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel. The results provide key information about the stability of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19 disease, and suggests that people may acquire the virus through the air and after touching contaminated objects. The study information was widely shared during the past two weeks after the researchers placed the contents on a preprint server to quickly share their data with colleagues…

    https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces

  13. vlad

    Judd handed in her note as requested on Monday – a day earlier than she had to.

  14. Zatara

    JC

    A verified live webcam of the traffic in Beijing would be a bit more convincing than CCP reports.

  15. Megan

    Apologist for chinese communists.
    Pathetic.

    Massive understatement. On both counts.

  16. vlad

    Judd and Walker effectively agreed in their notes, interestingly. A waste of time, really.

  17. Snoopy

    Very few China virus infections and almost no deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa. HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis drugs and ARV’s seemingly very effective at limiting transmission.

  18. Arky

    What’s the National road toll?

    ..
    About 100 deaths per month.
    So, if that is your cut off, what steps will you take to ensure it doesn’t reach that number?
    5 in less than a month so far.
    Italy has about 2000 in the last month, per capita that’s 10 times the number you nominated.
    How do we prevent getting there, or do you have some information the rest of us don’t that it’s just going to be fine?

  19. cohenite

    The virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces,

    That is one tough bug; unnaturally tough really.

  20. Leigh Lowe

    Fisk, rather an piles of abuse, can you say what Chinese did wrong after initial denials and complacency?

    Yeah, Fisky.
    And while you are at it, can you tell me what Hitler did wrong after the initial WW2 misadventure and the little genocide sideshow thingy.

  21. Exit Stage Right

    Fat Tony @ 8.31pm.

    Here , here. Numbers Bob has been caught out big time with his plagiarism. Very unbecoming for an ex “teacher” to be copying someone else’s work. Surely you did not allow cheating Bobby when you were supervising exams?
    Shallow fuckwit!

  22. mh

    City of Sydney council will temporarily close its aquatic and fitness centres and several libraries this week after cases of COVID-19 rose to 267 in NSW on Wednesday.

    The decision was made following Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s announcement today of a ban on all non-essential indoor gatherings of more than 100 people.

    The council measures include cancellations of several events, in person meetings, conferences and training exercises.

    City of Sydney aquatic and fitness centres will be closed from Friday until April 3 and the council’s libraries will be temporarily closed from Friday until March 31.

  23. egg_

    Some good docos Ex SBS now being recycled on the commercials, e.g. Chris Tarrant.

    How’s Lizzie & Bruce?

  24. vlad

    The Melbourne archdiocese has suspended public Masses effective as of today.

    https://www.cam.org.au/Guidance-for-Parishes-COVID-19

    I’m speechless.

  25. rickw

    And it’s off to the races. Aussie breaks 60 cents and now 59.45. This could be a 40ier.

    Sounds reasonable enough. We’re a backward shithole.

  26. mh

    Arky, COVID-19 has a lot of similarities with the other big SARS coronavirus nearly 20 years ago.

    Any idea why SARS never took off in Australia back then?

  27. Porter

    Thanks for the answer, Calli. You’ve not described anything that any other school is not facing and in fact the risk of other parents sending sick children to school is a risk that is present regardless of the pandemic. There is nothing stopping teachers or administrators from sending kids straight back home which is what they do now anyway.

    Also, medical advice that’s 3 weeks old is actually outdated in a pandemic. We know more about this virus today then we did 3 weeks ago and we will know more about it tomorrow that we even know today. So what you’re saying is that (some) Christian schools are ignoring the latest medical advice and their duty under law and also overlooking the recent experience of other countries which have kept their schools open. Instead they are risking becoming the Chinese toilet paper hoarders of the Education Sector, that is, of becoming a contagion which sets off panic elsewhere in the system. Hardly leadership.

    I’m really pleased to read that the head of the Catholic schools has overridden those within the Catholic school system whi have been arguing for immediate shutdown. Frankly I would be withdrawing federal funding from any school that doesn’t comply with their legal obligations. I would also hope that no employer grants any special leave or any special favours to parents who deliberately pull their kids out of school when they have been advised there is no reason to and then stay home to look after them. I certainly would not be paying any such employee any leave and would seriously consider whether they are fulfilling their employment contract by taking unauthorised leave.

    I have every respect for people of faith who take their faith seriously. But I have very little respect for those who expect the rest of the world to give them handouts and legal protections and then pick and choose when they want to participate in our communal life as a nation of citizens.

  28. Old School Conservative

    How’s Lizzie & Bruce?

    Bruce got good news – was allowed to berth in Darwin and fly home from there.
    Probably doing some R&R in the Margaret River.
    Lizzie is – I think – driving to New Orleans.

  29. Bar Beach Swimmer

    Although the daigou industry was accelerated by the baby formula crisis, it has since expanded to include a vast range of Australian products — cosmetics, clothes, food, wine, vitamins, toys — pretty much anything a buyer might want.

    Today, with the daigou channel in full swing, those involved in the trade say as many as half a million packages are sent to China every week.

    Thanks, Nota. That was the article that I’ve previously read.

    Today we had the PM tell Australians that we’re behaving badly because we’re wanting to purchase normal, everyday items that for decades, generations even, we’ve always been able to buy. While I fully understand the need to be concerned about and assist older and financially constrained Aussies, I balk at helping out a ravenous cohort who do not care about this country. The article that Nota linked was on the ABC website mid last year.

    The businesses referred to, including the government-owned Australia Post, seems to have shown no concern for Australian consumers, riding instead on the coat tales of the celestials. And the government seems to have done even less about this phenomenon. Well, it was fine when products were in abundance, or seemed to be. But now, we’re supposed to show a generosity of spirit because “we’re all in this together”. But is that the case? From that article, not at all. There’s a fifth column operating in this country and it needs to be shut down.

  30. Leigh Lowe

    If nothing else, the Kung Flu has been a revelation in the way it has triggered mOnster’s “road to Damascus” conversion.

    “Close the borders!”
    “Orange Man doing a good job of it”.

    Amazing how lefties drop the virtue posturing when there is a whiff of personal fallout.

  31. egg_

    About 100 deaths per month.

    When there’s a sudden spike in deaths, e.g. Pandemics, there’s a quotient known as an outrage factor.
    Still raging?

  32. Arky

    Any idea why SARS never took off in Australia back then?

    ..
    Did not spread asymptomatically. Did not spread in aerosols like this one. Higher mortality rate (15%).

  33. vlad

    We don’t have to (and can’t) go to Mass on Sunday here in Victoria until further notice!

  34. egg_

    Old School Conservative
    #3362803, posted on March 18, 2020 at 8:51 pm

    Good stuff.
    Thanks for the update.

  35. Siltstone

    Bret Walker is representing Cardinal Pell and I hope they are successful in the High Court. No taxpayers money involved on the Pell side. JCU is using our taxpayers money to pay Bret Walker to take on Peter Ridd. Ridd is funded by himself, his wife and GoFundMe supporters (which includes many Cats). I hope Bret Walker and JCU get their arses kicked.
    Apropo of nothing.

  36. Arky

    Still raging?

    ..
    Why don’t you answer the comparison to the road toll?
    You asked the question, I provided the figures.
    Stop with the snarky shit and address the figures.

  37. Porter

    Thanks Vlad. On that basis I doubt they’ll make a decision this week but if they don’t have one by Monday or Tuesday I’d say Pell is toast.

  38. egg_

    is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces,

    Just like Strep (= Pneumonia).

  39. 1735099

    This is not your world.

    True.
    Catallaxy is pure fantasy.
    But there’s always a possibility that some readers of this scrofulous blog will wake up to reality.
    So I try.
    Do what good you can…..

  40. egg_

    Why don’t you answer the comparison to the road toll?

    You want to debate risk management, chalkie?

  41. egg_

    Why don’t you answer the comparison to the road toll?

    Struth’s risks in going to a gig.
    COVID-19 vs road toll.

  42. vlad

    Thanks Vlad. On that basis I doubt they’ll make a decision this week but if they don’t have one by Monday or Tuesday I’d say Pell is toast.

    They aren’t sitting next week. Now that they’re not sitting publicly I suppose that doesn’t make much difference, but we’ll see.

  43. bespoke

    Lefty mythmaking that government subsidise private schools. Private school kids cost the government less so it’s the only way around.

  44. notafan

    Vlad

    Or during the week either.

    Knew it was most likely coming.

    My grandmother used to watch

    ‘Mass for you at home’

    At least we’ll get colour.

  45. Porter

    It’s ironic siltstone in that we have contributed to both the Pell and the Ridd legal defence fund and of course our tax dollars fund JCU and the DPP. It’s like getting stripped ten times over.

  46. Cassie of Sydney

    “Bar Beach Swimmer
    #3362804, posted on March 18, 2020 at 8:51 pm”

    Great post BBS.

  47. Porter

    Irrespective of whether you want to call it subsidising or not, private schools get public funds. If they close when they’re asked to stay open then public funds should be withdrawn. Why should taxpayers pay for a service that’s not being provided?

  48. egg_

    What’s the personal safety risk involved in single handedly restoring a 90 year old motor vehicle?
    PPE?

  49. Arky

    Struth’s risks in going to a gig.
    COVID-19 vs road toll.

    ..
    Go.
    Do it for the Italy case of:
    Road deaths = 275 deaths per month
    Covid – 19 deaths = 2000 this last month.

  50. bespoke

    What is the government paying for if they are closed, None?

  51. vlad

    I wonder if there will be any priests go rogue and hold Sunday Masses regardless.

    Every other rule and direction has been broken somewhere or other.

  52. notafan

    Which private schools closed?

  53. Snoopy

    Very few Chinese virus infections and almost no deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa. HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis drugs and ARV’s seemingly very effective at limiting transmission.

  54. Porter

    Vlad, my understanding is there not hearing you cases but they will still be heading down judgements and considering requests to appeal. Another words that should still be doing paperwork.

  55. Arky

    And while you are doing some maths, you can find the probability that people at Struth’s gig are getting infected while they are there.
    Assume at this stage only 0.5% of the population are infectious.
    Assume there are 100 people at his gig.
    What’s the probability that someone will be at his gig spreading the thing?
    Go.

  56. bespoke

    Is the government going to pick the law fare bill?
    No

    Using your argument the government can dictate anything to private schools
    .

    Nice shift BTW

  57. Cassie of Sydney

    All Synagogues services have now been suspended in NSW…no prayers and no services.

  58. notafan

    No school had closed.

    All that had happened is that Catholic schools in NSW ‘broke rank’ and called for schools to be closed.

    Which is weird language used by the media.

    Because I would read that as them asking for permission to close.

    Diogenes is public school iirc and working to have on line lessons.

    It’s a beat up*

    *Abrasive

  59. Snoopy

    Very few Chinese virus infections and almost no deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa. H1V pre-expOsure prOphylaxis drugs and ARV’s seemingly very effective at limiting transmission.

  60. vlad

    Assume at this stage only 0.5% of the population are infectious.
    Assume there are 100 people at his gig.
    What’s the probability that someone will be at his gig spreading the thing?
    Go.

    Pr = 1 – (.995^100) = 0.394

  61. Porter

    Varies from state to state not a fan and for different reasons. For example here are a couple of schools closed for a couple of days after there was a Corona diagnosis but that was only really to clean the school. Fair enough.
    Other private schools are at the going online (despite there being no requirement to do so- so that one will be unauthorised leave in my book if patents blusdged work) or closing e.g. https://www.3aw.com.au/private-schools-close-over-coronavirus-fears/

  62. Arky

    Correct.
    There is a 2 in 5 chance that someone at Struth’s gig will be wandering around releasing viral aerosols all over the fucking place.

  63. notafan

    Vlad

    I shall give the secret signal if I discover any pirate masses.

  64. Irrespective of whether you want to call it subsidising or not, private schools get public funds.

    So why are they called “private” schools?
    They are subsidised schools.
    That’s what they should be called.

  65. Porter

    Notafan – I pointed out above that the head of the Catholic schools jumped on the people agitating to close them and said that he will be doing no such thing. Good on him. The Catholic school system is just a hot bed of radical leftists in my experience peppered with a few outstanding educators, what I would call vocational teachers. A couple of the most committed Catholics I know chose not to send their kids to Catholic schools because they didn’t want them corrupted by leftist nonsense.

  66. mh

    Also at Struth’s gigs there always seems to be someone ‘backing one out’ in a nearby public space.

    And we know COVID-19 can be spread by fecal matter.

  67. Mother Lode

    What a nation of filthy barbarians.

    I went to IGA and could not get the sausages I like, could not get plain boring old loaf bread and *gasp* going to the local wine shop could not get the Burgundian gamay* – it had been sloughed from the shelves. The different other wines were there but bogan marauders bussed themselves in and scooped up every last bottle of Trenel Gamay.

    I now know how it feels to be Venezuelan.

    Or Victorian.

    *Gamay grown in the Burgundian region of Beaujolais is…Beaujolais. I am talking about Gamay grown in burgundy outside Beaujolais.

  68. notafan

    I think you might find Porter that most in not all of those schools have had exposure if not actual cases.

    And I would assume ‘permission’ at a state level (where it belongs) to do so.

    School goes on via online, in any case.

    Which is far better than having the disruptions that are inevitable when children are being kept home in numbers as Diogenes (public school teacher) reported.

    I have no idea why this is exercising you.

    Seems like a non issue.

  69. Shy Ted

    Don’t know what ScoMo expects, saying some things are UnAustralian. The country is full of UnAustralians. Shame he’s not in a position to do anything about it.

  70. Old School Conservative

    Which private schools closed?

    In Sydney, I know of Pymble Ladies College and Brigidene College St Ives. Both start their on-line learning tomorrow.

  71. bespoke

    Schools that subsidise the government.

    Happy?

  72. I think to ease your stresses a little country music is the answer

  73. notafan

    Yes Catholic school bad every which way.

    Have you read those mission statements?

    The worst.

  74. Boris

    Israel is preparing for a complete lockdown Wuhan style.

    Israel was the first to react to this crisis. Before they had their first case, Bibi said we need to be prepared for when (not if) this virus arrives. Israel was first to extend the travel ban to many counties, then to all countries. Israel has close to 100,000 people in strict self isolation.

    Yet now Israel has over 400 cases and preparing for a complete lockdown. The question is, why every country implements these drastic measures a bit late. Why not at the very beginning ?

    Aren’t we following the same pattern here in Australia? Waiting for the inevitable?

  75. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    From Arky at 9:03 pm:

    ” Struth’s risks in going to a gig.
    COVID-19 vs road toll.

    ..
    Go.
    Do it for the Italy case of:
    Road deaths = 275 deaths per month
    Covid – 19 deaths = 2000 this last month.

    Yep – it’s true, people are staying home, getting falling down drunk, heading for the keyboard and being incoherent.

  76. notafan

    They haven’t closed.

    They’ve gone online.

    State schools will too.

    Several countries have closed schools because of the pandemic.

    Much Ado about nothing.

  77. feelthebern

    I don’t give a stuff for the Catallaxy orthodoxy

    What is the Catallaxy orthodoxy re:
    1) QE;
    2) ZIRP/NIRP;
    3) STCPP?

  78. calli

    School of the Air comes to Town.

  79. Thefrollickingmole

    As country as TISM doing opera

  80. Arky

    Yep – it’s true, people are staying home, getting falling down drunk, heading for the keyboard and being incoherent.

    ..
    Well, you are free to add your own analysis.
    Use some actual numbers.
    Go!

  81. Shy Ted

    Took elderly neighbour to the supermarket this morning, many more oldies there at 7 for the opening. All I could see was seniors blocking aisles while they talked about their new hips and the cost of staples 4 hours earlier than usual.

  82. Arky

    Tucker is almost always right:
    ..


  83. Sinclair Davidson

    For reasons I don’t understand the auto-moderator is going bananas and capturing a lot of comments.

    1. If this happens please only post your comment once (Old Aussie I’m looking at you but only you).
    2. Please don’t try to modify your comment and re-post it. If the auto-moderator has caught you once, very likely it will catch you again.
    3. Please don’t start crapping on the comments, or worse in an email to me, about how you are being censored. I DO NOT MODERATE THE BLOG IN REAL TIME.
    4. Be patient. I will see your comment stuck in auto-moderation and will very likely approve it.

  84. Boris

    It’s ironic siltstone in that we have contributed to both the Pell and the Ridd legal defence fund and of course our tax dollars fund JCU and the DPP. It’s like getting stripped ten times over.

    These trials are cheap compared to the Claremont Serial Murder trial, which was supposed to last for 6 months but now who knows? Prior to this I thought legal aid is only for the poor. This guy is not poor, he has his own house, Telstra pension etc. yet his defense cost taxpayers millions. If he is found guilty he will not need his house. Yet the taxpayer is paying many millions for the defense and prosecution. He has a top notch legal team, not a court appointed lawyer like in the US. Not sure what’s the fair way.

  85. feelthebern

    Shy Ted
    #3362868, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:30 pm
    Took elderly neighbour to the supermarket this morning, many more oldies there at 7 for the opening. All I could see was seniors blocking aisles while they talked about their new hips and the cost of staples 4 hours earlier than usual.

    So you stole all their shit when you got home?

  86. Porter

    Notafan. The school around the corner is open. Most kids in our neighborhood have been going there so you see the regulars walk past the house in the morning and again in the afternoon. Interestingly some have not been and they’ve been wandering the streets at times when they should ordinarily be at school. If they need a parent to be home to supervise them doing online lessons or homeschool them then it doesn’t concern me unless that parent is then taking leave from work and costing an employer unnecessarily. It gets more critical if that parent is an essential worker for example an ambo or a nurse. That’s the issue.
    The modelling shows that up to 30% of the workforce could possibly the absent to care for kids who are not physically in a school.

  87. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    From Arky at 9:29 pm:

    ” …
    ..
    Well, you are free to add your own analysis.
    Use some actual numbers.
    Go!”

    What you posted made no sense so I still have no idea what you are talking about. Try lucid.

    Is “Go!” fashionable?

  88. feelthebern

    It’s ironic siltstone in that we have contributed to both the Pell and the Ridd legal defence fund and of course our tax dollars fund JCU and the DPP. It’s like getting stripped ten times over.

    The Eric Weinstein post applied to this kind of scenario too.

  89. Boris

    Old Aussie I’m looking at you but only you

    I think you meant looking at you but not only you, right ?

    old Aussie gets lots of comments held up because he has a habit of copying and pasting walls of text from other sources and the chances that they contain banned words are high.

  90. Porter

    Boris the guy who has been suing Gaynor has probably cost the taxpayer millions of dollars.

  91. Boris

    Please don’t try to modify your comment and re-post it.

    Worked for me.

  92. P

    Pastoral Letter to the Pastors and People of the Archdiocese of Sydney in a Time of Pandemic

    The Church in Australia was founded at a time when the Mass could not be celebrated on these shores and our forefathers and mothers waited for years to receive the Holy Eucharist. For us it will be at worst a matter of weeks or months. But just as prayer sustained them through those times, so can it for us today.

  93. egg_

    the Italy case of:
    Road deaths = 275 deaths per month
    Covid – 19 deaths = 2000 this last month.“

    Get Arky to pay your plane fare, Struth?

  94. Snoopy

    Sinclair Davidson
    #3362872, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:33 pm
    For reasons I don’t understand the auto-moderator is going bananas and capturing a lot of comments.

    Apologies, Sinc.

  95. egg_

    you are free to add your own analysis.

    Still raging.

  96. Mother Lode

    In Sydney, I know of Pymble Ladies College and Brigidene College St Ives. Both start their on-line learning tomorrow.

    I believe Queenwood is already working on virtual learning.

    Funny to compare to SARS days and such.

  97. Boris

    Porter: sure. They are all expensive. It seems like every suspected criminal has access to almost unlimited defense funds funded by the taxpayer. Is that fair?

  98. Arky

    What you posted made no sense so I still have no idea what you are talking about. Try lucid.

    ..
    I will explain.
    Egg wanted to do a risk analysis of Struth playing a gig and dying from ch1nky virus v Struth driving to the gig and dying in a fireball madmax style.
    So I suggested he use the Italian numbers for road deaths v. virus deaths per month.
    Because we, obviously, aren’t as far along the curve yet. But Italy is a fair worst case scenario.

  99. Arky

    egg_
    #3362887, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:40 pm
    you are free to add your own analysis.

    Still raging.

    ..
    You were going to do a risk analysis.
    Where is it?

  100. cohenite

    Do what good you can…..

    The only good you can do is to fuck off and die.

  101. feelthebern

    I can’t believe how quickly everyone has swallowed this fake pandemic hook, line & sinker.
    There will be zero accountability when this is all over.
    ScoMo & the msm:
    “Because of us, only handful of people have died over the last 3 month”.
    “PS, the economy is fucked & you don’t have a job & if you do, there’s a coronavirus levy”
    “PPS, public service pay rise, plus a politicians pay rise”

  102. egg_

    Is “Go!” fashionable?

    Theoretician speak.

  103. MatrixTransform

    Worked for me

    Boz, basically everything you post is the same post reworded

    ffs!

  104. Boris

    Cat still has imbeciles saying it is a fake pandemic and a beat up.

  105. cohenite

    Boris the guy who has been suing Gaynor has probably cost the taxpayer millions of dollars.

    The other issue is why the LNP are supporting him and opposing Gaynor; and Ridd.

  106. Mother Lode

    Boris,

    You are Boris.

    Anything after that is pointless.

    Just saying.

  107. notafan

    I’m only going by what Diogenes, a high school teacher, says regarding absenteeism and preparing to go online.

    And the fact that many countries have closed their schools.

    I don’t care whether they do or don’t.

    Obviously those countries that did so thought the risk of staying open were higher than the risk of closing.

    We may not come to that.

    I don’t have a problem with individual schools going to online format.

    One assumes parents and teachers were consulted. There is no good reason why the federal government should have the final say.

    Don’t really care about ‘medical advise’ which at this stage must surely be erring on the side of caution.

    Kids can’t play football or basketball or go to the pool because virus but can go to school.

    It’s contrarian.

  108. Boris

    I can’t believe how quickly everyone has swallowed this fake pandemic hook, line & sinker.

    Dot believe ScoMo? Maybe listen to Trump the god?

  109. egg_

    Assume at this stage only 0.5% of the population are infectious.
    Assume there are 100 people at his gig.

    Struth’s risk of death?
    A road accident.

  110. Eyrie

    Would someone care to explain why engineering 2% inflation is good and 0% inflation is bad? Sinclair? Steve Kates?

  111. feelthebern

    Make me a market on the official death rate in Australia by the end of March from coronavirus.
    Make me a market for the same by the end of April.

  112. Infidel Tiger

    Arky, COVID-19 has a lot of similarities with the other big SARS coronavirus nearly 20 years ago.

    Any idea why SARS never took off in Australia back then?

    Millions fewer ChiCom students in the country.

  113. Infidel Tiger

    Students should have been in “”.

  114. Fleeced

    Sinc wrote:

    For reasons I don’t understand the auto-moderator is going bananas and capturing a lot of comments.

    It’s any text that has the letter x, immediately followed by the letter i. Whoever set it up made it catch substrings. Two-character substrings, at that.

    Don’t block on two characters. Ever. Three as absolute minimum – and even then, make sure to include “\b” word boundary delimiters.

    2. Please don’t try to modify your comment and re-post it. If the auto-moderator has caught you once, very likely it will catch you again.

    Removing a comment from moderation at a later point has almost zero value, Sinc. The thread has moved on by then. Latecomers will see it, but the people you were replying to likely won’t.

    I DO NOT MODERATE THE BLOG IN REAL TIME.

    We know. That’s why we modify the comment and post again.

  115. egg_

    Boris
    #3362898, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:44 pm

    Boris, Iampeter and JC have a habit of saying yeah.
    Non?

  116. Infidel Tiger

    Cat still has imbeciles saying it is a fake pandemic and a beat up.

    We have other “morons” saying China is cured and back to business.

  117. MatrixTransform

    Cat still has imbeciles saying it is a fake pandemic and a beat up

    ok, except for that.

  118. Arky

    Struth’s risk of death?
    A road accident.

    ..
    Where’s the risk analysis?
    Do what you said you stop drivelling.

  119. Leigh Lowe

    Sinclair Davidson

    #3362872, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:33 pm

    For reasons I don’t understand the auto-moderator is going [email protected]@[email protected] and capturing a lot of comments.

    I tried to reply but apparently [email protected]@[email protected] is now banned.

  120. Leigh Lowe

    Sinclair Davidson

    #3362872, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:33 pm

    For reasons I don’t understand the auto-moderator is going [email protected]@[email protected] and capturing a lot of comments.

    A fair chance that mOnster advocating closed borders and praising the Great Orange One has caused the auto-mod to pop a few circuit breakers.

  121. mh

    Did not spread asymptomatically…

    Thanks Arky, my earlier link touched on this, I should have read it thoroughly.

    Also mentioned this

    SARS-CoV-1 was eradicated by intensive contact tracing and case isolation measures and no cases have been detected since 2004. SARS-CoV-1 is the human coronavirus most closely related to SARS-CoV-2.

    Harder to use that method this time with asymptomatic spreading.

  122. feelthebern

    Will there be 100 coronavirus deaths by the end of March?
    I will short 100.
    13 days away.
    Anyone want the other side of that?

  123. bespoke

    I would’t go to any gig that had arkydillo’s.

  124. feelthebern

    Re: SARS.
    China literally shut off towns.
    Also, this was before Chinese relaxed travel restrictions.
    Back then, most citizens needed approval to travel out of province.
    Almost like an internal visa.

  125. bespoke

    Unless I had pick axe and spade.

  126. Boris

    Fisky
    #3362774, posted on March 18, 2020 at 8:31 pm

    Fisk I always appreciate your opinion but not slogans. You appear to operate in either one or the other mode without any grey areas. Your latest post is in the first category and I agree with it almost 100%. Actually 100%. The only thing is, their failings can be separated into what they did wrong to outside world, and what they did wrong to their own people. There is no doubt their action towards Taiwan was evil, and their propaganda is horrible. But as far as looking after their, own the failings were relatively minor (but there were some).

    As far as actions you agree with, why doesn’t Australia follow the Chinese example?

    Btw I especially like your posts on education. Haven’t seen one in a while.

  127. Bar Beach Swimmer

    Is the reason that the federal government has done nothing about the daigou relate to the gst receipts from the sales? If so, both Federal and State Governments, as well as suppliers, have an ulterior motive to let it continue because of those increased receipts while simultaneously blaming the domestic consumer.

  128. Arky

    Is the reason that the federal government has done nothing about the daigou relate to the gst receipts from the sales?

    ..
    They wouldn’t even know it exists.

  129. Luke

    Is there any chance we can get a permanent link to the latest open thread on the home page?

    Would be really helpful time saver.

  130. Arky

    Luke, just click over at the “recent comments” to the top right. The open forum is usually the most numerous links.

  131. feelthebern

    Foxsports has used the current disruption to sack approx. 20% of their staff.

  132. pete m

    What are the odds that the parents who are complaining wanting schools to close due to the pandemic are th same ones who have not vaccinated their kids?

    Going to keep my wife teacher away from school – on LSL for a week and before it is over will review. She has 25 kids and they don’t do hygiene and she has had the flu recently for a long time so vulnerable health wise.

    Still, not 1 story about school closures NEVER discusses teacher workplace safety – just what is best for the kiddies.

    they have run out of sanitizer and hand wash at school and rationing it – how safe is that? The snotty brats don’t use it anywhere near enough anyway, and no cleaner comes near the desks to actually wipe them down at end of class – it is all BS what the schools are saying about extra cleaning.

  133. feelthebern

    How many people have ABC sports let go?

  134. Fat Tony

    Arky
    #3362835, posted on March 18, 2020 at 9:08 pm
    And while you are doing some maths, you can find the probability that people at Struth’s gig are getting infected while they are there.
    Assume at this stage only 0.5% of the population are infectious.
    Assume there are 100 people at his gig.

    What’s the probability that someone will be at his gig spreading the thing?
    Go.

    That one’s easy Arky – stop the midget from going into the venue – that’s your 0.5% of 100 people.

    You can thank me later

  135. Cassie of Sydney

    Well Australia…it has come to this…police are to patrol supermarkets aisles.

    Great country we have here……I’m sure my grandparents. who lived through World War I, the depression and World War II, must be so proud.

  136. cohenite

    As far as actions you agree with, why doesn’t Australia follow the Chinese example?

    Eat bats and Soylent Green the bodies.

  137. feelthebern

    Time to leave Australia.
    Nice weather, nice food.
    Not much else.
    Time to move to the US.
    Live in Texas.
    Visit places of interest.

  138. Caveman

    Italy’s 10 yr bonds yields spiking , all bond yields going off. -2000 pts on DOW tonight a big possibility . I don’t think Trumps 1k hand out will touch the sides.
    With the Cov19 stuck into the Italians they could default ,nothing to lose now.

  139. Cassie of Sydney

    “cohenite
    #3362934, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:06 pm
    As far as actions you agree with, why doesn’t Australia follow the Chinese example?

    Eat bats and Soylent Green the bodies.”

    Well…that is socialism….I might go up to Centennial Park and bludgeon a few bats…except I can’t eat them…they ain’t kosher.

  140. feelthebern

    Krudd was a disgrace during the GFC.
    ScoMo has been a disgrace during this version of the GFC.

  141. mh

    Cassie of Sydney
    #3362933, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:05 pm
    Well Australia…it has come to this…police are to patrol supermarkets aisles.

    Great country we have here……I’m sure my grandparents. who lived through World War I, the depression and World War II, must be so proud.

    Cassie, get a grip.

  142. feelthebern

    Stimulus (small impact).
    Rate of infection (small impact).
    It is all about liquidity for a meaningful, sustained rally.
    That’s the Fed, who are doing great.
    & the RBA for us, who have been a fucking, woeful disgrace.

  143. MatrixTransform

    Cassie, my grandmother was born in 1914 and she’s gone now.

    Wise, wise woman who talked in riddles but everybody remembers her sayings and day by day they ring true even now.

    When she talked of the wars and of her poor old father that saw both first-hand, there wasn’t a tear in her eye.

    When she talked about the hard times… the depression … it was too much and she could never finish.

    she’s look to heaven and say “this too shall pass”, with tears rolling down her cheeks

  144. Stimpson J. Cat

    Oh No.

    Oprah Winfrey
    @Oprah
    The neighbor complains about seeing children in the yard, the deputy comes and does not check the backyard. Crazy!
    1:48 PM · Jul 11, 2011

  145. Tel

    Well Australia…it has come to this…police are to patrol supermarkets aisles.

    But but but … if the cops are in the supermarkets … who will be checking for mean tweets?

  146. Fisky

    This is what true leadership looks like. Thoughtful. Compassionate. Unifying.

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·
    35m
    For the people that are now out of work because of the important and necessary containment policies, for instance the shutting down of hotels, bars and restaurants, money will soon be coming to you. The onslaught of the Chinese Virus is not your fault! Will be stronger than ever!

  147. Cassie of Sydney

    “Cassie, get a grip.”

    Why? The Telegraph has just reported that police are going to patrol supermarkets.

  148. MatrixTransform

    … who will be checking for mean tweets?

    i’m sure the numptard will step up

  149. Archivist

    Porter:

    Irrespective of whether you want to call it subsidising or not, private schools get public funds. If they close when they’re asked to stay open then public funds should be withdrawn. Why should taxpayers pay for a service that’s not being provided?

    Okay, fine.
    Same goes for public schools when they close?
    “Why should taxpayers pay for a service that’s not being provided?”

  150. Arky

    When she talked about the hard times… the depression … it was too much and she could never finish.

    ..
    Egg, Struth and others are right in their premise that the economic damage is potentially more fatal than the virus.
    They are absolutely correct in that.
    We wouldn’t be here if the bloody people charged with making decisions had done the right thing and closed the borders to China from the end of January, and other parts after that.
    It should never have come to this, and do not get me wrong, I still think we are in over reaction mode now, after weeks and fucking weeks of diddling around doing bloody nothing.

  151. Cassie of Sydney

    “When she talked about the hard times… the depression … it was too much and she could never finish.

    she’s look to heaven and say “this too shall pass”, with tears rolling down her cheeks”

    Yep…she was not alone….my grandmother found it very hard to talk about the World War II and depression. They were ALL very stoic.

  152. mh

    Why? The Telegraph has just reported that police are going to patrol supermarkets.

    So? If they need to keep order there so be it. You will be able to shop in peace without fear of fights breaking out. It will mostly be swarthies and bat botherers they will be keeping an eye on.

  153. MatrixTransform

    I pay an inordinate sum in insurance every month.
    wtf is it life?
    income protection?

    fucked if i know

    guess what happens next?

  154. MatrixTransform

    They were ALL very stoic.

    tough as nails

    not like the ur hurt my feelz bigot brigade we’ve become

  155. mh

    We also need the cops stopping vans driven by Chinese people outside of country towns.

    Well well well. A van full of bog roll and rice…

  156. Mark A

    Luke
    #3362926, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    Is there any chance we can get a permanent link to the latest open thread on the home page?

    Would be really helpful time saver.

    Easy as, just make fav link to it. Good for a few days usually when a new one appears delete it and start again.

  157. Cassie of Sydney

    not like the ur hurt my feelz bigot brigade we’ve become”

    Yep..and you can include one or two commentators here in that lot.

  158. Fat Tony

    Arky
    #3362949, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:22 pm
    It should never have come to this, and do not get me wrong, I still think we are in over reaction mode now, after weeks and fucking weeks of diddling around doing bloody nothing.

    There needs to be a day of reckoning with our government (pollies & bureaucrats) when this is over.
    They are paid to serve us – not the CCP

  159. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Australia’s Mooslims are told to worship at home as mosques across the country call off Friday prayers to prevent more coronavirus cases

    Australian National Imams Council announced Friday prayers were cancelled
    Anglican Church in Sydney also postponed any gatherings at its place of worship
    Comes as the pandemic continues to escalate in Australia and across the globe

    Daily Mail. It’s an ill wind…

  160. Nelson Kidd-Players

    Luke #3362926, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    Is there any chance we can get a permanent link to the latest open thread on the home page?

    Would be really helpful time saver.

    Luke, in the header of every Open Fred, there is a category definintion. Click it to see all threads of the same category, hence the recent Open Freds.

  161. Infidel Tiger

    China. Did. This.

    Neve forget. Never forgive.

  162. Infidel Tiger

    Muzzies are not our enemy.

    We are at peace with them. An old and far more dangerous enemy has been in plain sight.

  163. Cassie of Sydney

    “Infidel Tiger
    #3362963, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:33 pm
    China. Did. This.

    Never forget. Never forgive.”

    Oh I won’t….but our various elites and politicians will quickly forget and easily forgive. After all….they have to serve their master.

  164. Steve trickler

    July 2019.

    One business guy has a very happy day. The Easter attacks in Sri Lanka kicked his business in the guts.



    Good luck to him today.

  165. Infidel Tiger

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I will be having a news conference today to discuss very important news from the FDA concerning the Chinese Virus!
    7:12 PM · Mar 18, 2020·

    Great stuff.

  166. Infidel Tiger

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I will totally protect your Medicare & Social Security!
    6:53 PM · Mar 18, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    Perfect messaging.

  167. Fisky

    Never forget that the official name of this disease is the CHINESE China Virus. You need both the adjective and the noun in there for emphasis.

  168. Porter

    I understand what you’re saying, Cassie. Here at Casa Porter, we were talking earlier this evening about Morrison telling us this morning that we should stop hoarding, this is un-Australian, this is not who we are and we remarked that, given he has let in hordes of people who don’t share our values and don’t share your foundational religion ( big side discussion here on development and nurturing of national identity), this is exactly who we are now.

    One of the most interesting outcomes of this pandemic is that it has really exposed the national character or rather, the lack thereof. Still, whatever you do Cassie, don’t despair. It is people of your spirit who make this country still worth fighting for.

    Goodnight.

  169. egg_

    Risk communication comprises two facets: “scaring people” and “calming people down” or alerting and reassuring people. There are moderate hazards that people are apathetic about or minor hazards that people are outraged about. Risk communication tries to create a level of “outrage ” appropriate to the level of hazard.

    Risk communication differs from risk assessment in that risk assessment deals with the physics and chemistry and probability of something happening. Risk assessment defines risk as magnitude (how bad the problem could be) times the probability (how likely it is to happen). Experts tend to focus on this definition (let’s call it hazard), and so underestimate actual risk, because they ignore outrage. The public tends to focus instead on outrage and pay less attention to risk (hazard).

    Dr. Sandman’s contention is that Risk = Hazard + Outrage and he says “If people are outraged because they do not understand the hazard, educate them about the hazard. If they are outraged and DO understand the hazard, you must address the outrage. ‘Educating the public’ is not sufficient to deal with public outrage.”

    The goal of most outrage is to shut the proposal down (not build an incinerator, not site a chemical factory, etc.). The outrage related to clean-up is different: not to shut it down, but they want a different or cheaper or better clean-up. Outrage builds the clean-up budget, but reduces flexibility.

    Risk communication should not be in the Communications Department, says Sandman. Because 98% of communications work is directed toward an audience that is inattentive but convincible, the work of a Communications Department is mostly getting the audience’s attention and marketing to them. The 2% of communication that is risk communication has an audience that is very attentive but hostile. The strategies of traditional communications groups backfire in the risk communication arena.

  170. Porter

    Yep exactly the same for public schools Archivist. No work no pay.

  171. mh

    SE Qld appears to be as per normal, no big dramas at all.

    I think there are just too many people living on top of each other in Sydney and Melbourne.

    Heard the other day Melbourne has a higher population now than the entire state of Qld.

  172. Cassie of Sydney

    Thank you Porter.

  173. Tel

    China. Did. This.

    Neve forget. Never forgive.

    Just a reminder … the most common cause of pneumonia related death in Australia is “We have no frigging idea because no one could be bothered looking”.

    The Chinese doctors found the virus, only because they did pull finger and start looking, but it might have been anywhere else on Earth before it got to China because most countries make it their standard operating practice to never see anything. Now yes I agree that the regime in Beijing probably made things a lot worse, but those doctors did the right thing (and mostly are now dead, but let’s not worry about that).

    Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence (moreso with a virus 100 nm in diameter).

  174. Leigh Lowe

    feelthebern

    #3362929, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:03 pm

    Foxsports has used the current disruption to sack approx. 20% of their staff.

    Oh dear.
    And the Vicar of Rugby gave Fox the middle finger on a roll-over of the TV rights just six weeks ago.
    Not going to happen now.
    Oh well, I guess she can always tap extra sponsorship cash from Qant …. ah, no wait …

  175. egg_

    Risk communication comprises two facets: “scaring people” and “calming people down” or alerting and reassuring people. There are moderate hazards that people are apathetic about or minor hazards that people are outraged about. Risk communication tries to create a level of “outrage ” appropriate to the level of hazard.

    Risk communication differs from risk assessment in that risk assessment deals with the physics and chemistry and probability of something happening. Risk assessment defines risk as magnitude (how bad the problem could be) times the probability (how likely it is to happen). Experts tend to focus on this definition (let’s call it hazard), and so underestimate actual risk, because they ignore outrage. The public tends to focus instead on outrage and pay less attention to risk (hazard).

    Dr. Sandman’s contention is that Risk = Hazard + Outrage and he says “If people are outraged because they do not understand the hazard, educate them about the hazard. If they are outraged and DO understand the hazard, you must address the outrage. ‘Educating the public’ is not sufficient to deal with public outrage.”

    The goal of most outrage is to shut the proposal down (not build an incinerator, not site a chemical factory, etc.). The outrage related to clean-up is different: not to shut it down, but they want a different or cheaper or better clean-up. Outrage builds the clean-up budget, but reduces flex ibility.

    Risk communication should not be in the Communications Department, says Sandman. Because 98% of communications work is directed toward an audience that is inattentive but convincible, the work of a Communications Department is mostly getting the audience’s attention and marketing to them. The 2% of communication that is risk communication has an audience that is very attentive but hostile. The strategies of traditional communications groups backfire in the risk communication arena.

  176. Fisky

    The extent of Beijing’s obsession with Taiwan is truly mindboggling. Even the most innocuous, apolitical international organisation must completely exclude Taiwan in order to please Beijing.

    foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22/china-health-coronavirus-wuhan-virus-spreads-taiwan-no-say-who/

    But Taiwan is no longer able to attend the World Health Assembly, WHO’s annual policy meeting. China has prevented Taiwan from attending since 2016, after President Tsai Ing-wen was elected for the first time. Since her election, Beijing has stepped up its existing military and economic pressure on Taiwan, viewing Tsai’s pro-sovereignty status as a veil for Taiwanese independence.

    Beijing relies on a United Nations resolution passed on Oct. 25, 1971, recognizing the People’s Republic of China as the only legitimate representative of China to the U.N. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has openly thanked WHO for excluding Taiwan, blaming an inaccurate representation of Tsai’s views on Taiwan’s independence.

    These efforts border on petty, with Beijing at times refusing Taiwan’s right to host sporting events. While Taiwan is able to participate in the Olympic Games under the name “Chinese Taipei,” there are questions as to whether Beijing will even tolerate this when China hosts the Winter Olympics in 2022. The East Asian Olympic Committee bowed to Beijing’s pressure and canceled Taiwan’s planned hosting of the East Asian Youth Games in 2018.

    Taiwan has similarly been excluded from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), despite Taiwan’s largest airport receiving 46.5 million passengers in 2018. While Taiwan was able to attend the 38th ICAO Assembly in 2013 as a special guest, it was refused entry for the triennial assemblies in 2016 and 2019.

    So Beijing is willing to risk more planes dropping out of the sky and pandemics becoming unnecessarily worse, because of its pathetic obsession with conquering Taiwan.

    China often behaves like a teenage basement incel, not a responsible global power.

  177. mh

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·
    1m
    I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning, including my very early decision to close the “borders” from China – against the wishes of almost all. Many lives were saved. The Fake News new narrative is disgraceful & false!

  178. Infidel Tiger

    Tel are you doing that libertarian trick of whatabouting for China?

    Not a good look dude.

  179. Tel

    What the fuck is “whatabouting”?

    I don’t truck with hypocrisy no matter where it comes from. How about you?

  180. Leigh Lowe

    Infidel Tiger

    #3362967, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I will be having a news conference today to discuss very important news from the FDA concerning the Chinese Virus!
    7:12 PM · Mar 18, 2020·

    Great stuff.

    Aaaand the MSM will spend all day tomorrow tut-tutting about Trump’s racism in calling it the “Chinese virus”.
    Just reinforcing the key phrase “Chinese virus”.
    The man is a master.

  181. Porter

    Catholic schools scrap shutdowns

    Scott Morrison intervened to stop almost 600 Catholic schools from closing in a call to Sydney Archbishop Anthony Fisher.

    This was a very important move by both Morrison and Fisher. If those schools had shutdown it would have acted as a contagion and all discipline would have collapsed. This is a long-haul. You need a sustainable strategy and to leave some things in reserve light total shutdowns. A couple of weeks of having hissyfits is not going to cut it. The medicine shows young people are quite resilient to this virus and the modelling shows that shutting schools and universities has very minimal effect on reducing the spread of the virus and has the potential of doing great damage by removing great slabs of the workforce.

  182. Infidel Tiger

    The Chinese China Virus was born and bred in China. Most likely Wuhan.

    There is no disputing that.

  183. egg_

    There go my gigs.
    ..
    six fucking deaths

    ..
    How many deaths are required to make it worth you missing a gig?

    Hmmm?

  184. mh

    It’s as if the Chinese China Virus is stress testing our ponzi society.

    Sydney and Melbourne are starting to buckle.

  185. JC

    Infidel Tiger
    #3362969, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:38 pm

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I will totally protect your Medicare & Social Security!
    6:53 PM · Mar 18, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    Perfect messaging.

    The exact thing I want to hear.

  186. Fisky

    Tel has been reading RT, Rense.com and Infowars, which are often conduits for Chinese state propaganda.

  187. JC

    Tel

    Wuhan was the epicenter and the unfortunate thing is that far too many of these shitty things originate there. Chinese docs found the virus because so many of their countrymen were dying from it in one spot.

  188. Tel

    The Chinese China Virus was born and bred in China. Most likely Wuhan.

    Demonstrate how you know that.

  189. JC

    Demonstrate how you know that.

    It is very likely because that was the epicenter. No one can be 100% sure because most things of that nature aren’t.

  190. 8th Dan

    Morrison telling us this morning that we should stop hoarding, this is un-Australian, this is not who we are

    Poor Fat Mo © … late again.
    Should have been wagging the finger back at the beginning of February when the locusts cleared the handwash from the shelves of the supermarkets and chemists.
    Still said nothing when locusts started devouring the toilet paper at the end of February.
    Now trying to act all decisive and Prime Ministerial when the pensioners start crowding the stores to find empty shelves.
    No social distancing at ColesWorths yesterday or today … the video evidence is clear.
    How many of those old folks will be still alive in 14 days time?

  191. egg_

    Demonstrate how you know that.

    Want some bat soup?

  192. Tel

    Fisky you are full of shit, and making up more of it proves nothing.

    If you are down to smear tactics then you might as well admit that you have no argument.

  193. Arky

    Risk communication

    ..
    Otherwise known as bullshit.
    I thought you had actual technical qualifications.

  194. Fisky

    I previously called it the Wuhan Virus, but now that Chinese state propaganda has activated its Western useful idiot network into calling everyone racist, we have no choice but to relabel this the CHINESE China Virus. All-caps on the adjective. The other technical term is the Chi-Com Virus.

  195. Snoopy

    Arky

    We wouldn’t be here if the bloody people charged with making decisions had done the right thing and closed the borders to China from the end of January,

    What? And prevented Aussies from returning home?

  196. Leigh Lowe

    The Chinese China Virus was born and bred in China. Most likely Wuhan.

    Demonstrate how you know that.

    It sure as shit didn’t start in Edinburgh, Dallas or Tennant Creek.

  197. Infidel Tiger

    Nicholas A. Christakis
    @NAChristakis
    ·
    18h
    For a contrarian take on the worldwide response to COVID19 by a very smart scientist, John Ioannidis
    @Stanford
    , who argues we may be (and perhaps are) over-reacting, see: https://statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/… via
    @jflier
    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1239969799981002755

    Interesting.

  198. Fisky

    But Tel, you are promoting a conspiracy theory that is being pushed by Chinese state media outlets such as the Global Times. I don’t need to refute anything here!

  199. MatrixTransform

    How many of those old folks will be still alive in 14 days time?

    you don’t sound like a doctor…you sound like fuckwit

    just sayin’

  200. It’s as if the Chinese China Virus is stress testing our ponzi society.

    No doubt

  201. egg_

    Spain and Iran are worse than Italy on the trajectory – both c. 10,000 cases 15 days out from 100.

  202. Arky

    The Chinese China Virus was born and bred in China. Most likely Wuhan.

    Demonstrate how you know that.

    ..
    Here:
    ..
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-15/world-health-org-graph/11968762

  203. Infidel Tiger

    Demonstrate how you know that.

    For starters, back in January even the CCP and Chinese media were saying it originated in a Wuhan wet market.

    They have since retracted all these stories and are now blaming the US.

    Scratch a libertarian, find an authoritarian state fellator.

  204. vr

    It — Ionnidis has one of the most cited paper Why all published results are wrong? His appearance on Econtalk is one of my favourite episodes of that podcast.

  205. JC

    If I don’t die from the corona virus, I will from “morteining” flies attracted to the light in my office every evening.

  206. egg_

    Arky
    #3362997, posted on March 18, 2020 at 11:00 pm

    My analysis is you’re a raging pissant.

  207. MatrixTransform

    linkingness pls vr

  208. If the Chicom disease is the apocalypse, nobody will believe it because of the Klimate™ scam.

  209. Archivist

    It — Ionnidis has one of the most cited paper Why all published results are wrong?

    His paper is getting smashed by other experts on twitter.

  210. egg_

    How many deaths are required to make it worth you missing a gig?

    That is risk analysis.
    What are the controls?

  211. Infidel Tiger

    VR – he makes a lot of sense.

  212. Archivist

    That is risk analysis.
    What are the controls?

    You don’t have ‘controls’ in ‘risk analysis’, doofus.

  213. JC

    Tel is splitting hairs by implying we have no solid evidence it originated there although it was first cited Wuhan. He does have a point, but not a very good one. In any event, the strongly held perception around the world is that it did and you would require masses of evidence to suggest otherwise before anyone believed you theory.

  214. Wow. I never woulda picked Tel as a Chicom apologist.

  215. Arky

    My analysis is you’re a raging pissant.

    ..
    My analysis is you should fuck off back to Blairs where you’ve “been posting since 1980” or what the fuck ever.
    Dude, you said you could do some calculations.
    Hurry up.

  216. egg_

    Risk = Hazard + Outrage

    Vic CMO: No need to panic – but stock up on 2 weeks worth of groceries!

  217. egg_

    you said you could do some calculations.

    Where?

  218. egg_

    Struth has wisely departed the rager.

  219. Arky

    So you can’t?
    Why am I talking to you then?

  220. Vic CMO: No need to panic

    Broadcast from a remote Pacific island.

  221. Leigh Lowe

    Infidel Tiger

    #3362986, posted on March 18, 2020 at 10:51 pm

    The Chinese China Virus was born and bred in China. Most likely Wuhan.

    There is no disputing that.

    The only possibilities are:-
    1. This a bio-weapon deliberately unleashed by the Chunks;
    2. This a bio-weapon accidentally unleashed by shithouse Chunky lab security over lab animals;
    3. This is a cross-species transmission of a virus due to barbaric Chunky “culinary” practices.
    Take your pick.
    And whatever the source, it was exacerbated by Chunky cover up in the first two months.

  222. The Cat last week: pfft this virus stuff is a hoax, it’s just the flu, typical alarmism from the left

    The Cat this week: OMG the commie pinko aliens are among us, every man for himself, PANIC!!!!!!

  223. egg_

    Why am I talking to you then?

    How are your former students faring?
    How is the Model A?
    Do you abandon everything?

  224. mh

    Monty, you predicted lockdown.

    Credible sources.

  225. Tel

    Wuhan was the epicenter and the unfortunate thing is that far too many of these shitty things originate there.

    In Australia, about 3000 people each year die of something that seemed like pneumonia but no one could get off their arse and take a look at what caused it. Could literally have been anything. Lots more people get sick of stuff that never gets tested, never gets looked at, and the doc spends about 5 min scribbling out a prescription for Augmentin, a couple of days sick leave certificate and a claim on Medicare. What is actually going around out there? No one has the slightest idea.

    The first step of science is go and take some measurement of the world. I know it’s rare to find that still taught in schools but it ain’t over until the last greybeard is gone and forgotten.

    Chinese docs found the virus because so many of their countrymen were dying from it in one spot.

    If you want to check the history, they found it when only a small number were dead, and we know that Beijing reacted early January because they put the military bases on alert. This is even more remarkable as they were coming off a yearly flu season when many more people were dying of that, and yet they picked up these cases as unusual. That shows they were paying attention better that your average Australian doctor.

    There’s certainty problems with the Chinese socialist health system, but I would hardly put Australia’s socialist system forward as better.

    The answer is we don’t know where this virus started, nor why it waits around and then kills certain people and not others. We don’t even know for sure which other animals it can jump into and out of.

  226. The Beer Whisperer

    The only way to stop it would be to relinquish yet more freedom in the form of serious, government-dictated rationing and movement of people.

    No, it means Australians need to get off their arses and physically stop blow-ins from taking all of their food.

    Get 100 people and vet shoppers to make sure they’re locals. Cause a ruckus. Film everything. Dare the police to arrest 100 of you, then blame the police for enabling black marketeers to steal everything if they do.

    Do I have to do all of the thinking for these people?

  227. MatrixTransform

    PANIC!!!!!!

    myeah fggit.

    I’ll panic tomorrow

  228. vr

    Archivist: this is the paper I am referring to. Different one to IT’s link

  229. JC

    Monster

    Ummm, you;’re the one telling us for the past week that Boris, Trump and Morrison will be responsible for your death if it comes to that. Who’s panicking?

  230. Archivist

    1. This a bio-weapon deliberately unleashed by the Chunks;
    2. This a bio-weapon accidentally unleashed by shithouse Chunky lab security over lab animals;
    3. This is a cross-species transmission of a virus due to barbaric Chunky “culinary” practices.
    Take your pick.

    It’s not (1).
    It wasn’t deliberately released by anyone.

  231. Arky

    Lashing out.
    But I’m the one “panicking”.
    Class act Egg.
    Leave it off from here.
    I like most of your comments, and I’m not going to get into it with you when you’re angry.
    I’ll talk to you after it’s over.

  232. egg_

    You don’t have ‘controls’ in ‘risk analysis’, doofus.

    Bowtie?
    Retard!

  233. Nice summary LL.
    You might add option 4 as a combination of 1 and 2.

  234. Archivist

    Archivist: this is the paper I am referring to. Different one to IT’s link

    oh okay. Yes, that’s pretty amazing.

  235. egg_

    But I’m the one “panicking”.

    Yes, fvck off for a while.
    Take the hint.
    Lashing out at Beaugy?

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