Bug boffins: Trump tests positive for being right

Paul Kelly, 17 days ago: Working-class virus crisis threatens Donald Trump.

This is a new test for Trump. So far, he has looked out of his depth, peddling as late as Monday­ foolish tweets including a dismissal of coronavirus in comparison with the common flu.

 
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. et alia, editorial of the New England Journal of Medicine, today:

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

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12 Responses to Bug boffins: Trump tests positive for being right

  1. Mother Lode

    dismissal of coronavirus in comparison with the common flu.

    Er…no, Paul.

    The issue with the coronavirus is the human toll. If it were benign we would not talk about it at all.

    Trump compared the toll of the yearly round of flu with the toll of the coronavirus, and on that basis explained that if they don’t shut down the nation for the flu, then there really is no need to do so for the coronavirus.

    You want to argue against the point he actually made?

    Does anyone else think Numbers and Paul Kelly could be related? Perhaps poured out of adjacent bottles in the laboratory?

  2. Robbo

    Paul Kelly must be related to Peter FitzSimons. He’s wrong far too often to be considered a normal person.

  3. Judge Dredd

    Relevant news to this –
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/neil-ferguson-appears-before-parliament/
    In summary it looks like only 1/1000 require hospitalisation. So if the responses in countries to-date were based on the models from early China hospitalisation rates (1/5) then this is very good news indeed., and effectively there is a massive overreaction.

  4. Iampeter

    If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

    Data like this was what experts were saying for weeks.
    Also, how was Trump right? He has reacted as every leftists and statist on the planet has.

    It sure would be nice if Trump was what his supporters like to pretend he is at a time like this. Alas…

  5. Chris M

    If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%)

    Fauci’s assumption is wrong. South Australia has the highest rate of testing per population in the world so we have good data here of (the lack of) community spread. I understand that in the USA this is not the case and they have only scratched the surface with their testing to date, Australia as a whole is well ahead.

    Yes “only 13 dead” someone will say forgetting the two+ week lag. I like President Trump but here a large part of his words are to prop up the market, give people hope and also a geopolitical effort with the CCP.

  6. mundi

    These are the new cases in QLD

    2 (6 March)
    1
    1
    3
    2
    7
    ? sat
    11 sun
    15
    7
    10
    16
    50
    40 sun
    37 sat
    60
    78
    46
    50 (26 March)

    My guess is the hotter and humid weath and social distancing seem to maybe be having an impact, but the next 2 weeks will be telling

  7. miltonf

    Don’t waste your money an the Australian. If I wanted to be lectured and insulted I’d turn on the ABC which I’m forced to pay for.

  8. iain russell

    Paul and Fitz. I wonder what hold they have on the suits to continue to be paid to peddle such pap.

  9. Archivist

    If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

    the caveat being “if one assumes.”
    Maybe they’re right. I hope so.

  10. Leon L

    The NEJM article has been published today but was submitted about Mar 10 IIRC.
    So it’s not new data.

  11. H B Bear

    Snoozer Kelly is best used as a contra indicator.

    The Prof van Wrongselen School of Wrongolgy has suspended activities. Staff have been redeployed to Channel 10 andThe Ponds Institute.

  12. Professor Fred Lenin

    The common flu figures were being used to show comparison and relativity to the flow of “information”correct and wrong coming from many sources . All figures are debatable as no one really knows what to do about this rare virus attack . Some of the actions are showing up the incompetence of many in authority . Look at Biden the deformation alternative to Trump his careers are muzzling him as they know he will sty]uff up monumentally ,and this total insult to the decromat voters is being kept under wraps hoping the Chinese Bat virus will weaken Trumps support and the will sneak into power again and destroy everything a Trump has achieved.
    Peter he hasnt done too badly for an out and out non politician to the left of Sanders .

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