Models officially dumped

Coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Deborah Birx:

The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea, or Italy. We’re about 5 times the size of Italy. If we were Italy, and you did those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They’re not close to achieving that.

Models are models. [T]here is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on our experience.

 
Italy has recorded 8,215 deaths. Many of these are suspected of having been attributed to the virus loosely .

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35 Responses to Models officially dumped

  1. The predictions of the models don’t match the reality…

    who woulda guessed?

  2. Beachcomber

    Italy has recorded 8,215 deaths. Many of these are suspected of having been attributed to the virus loosely .

    The death of every person in Italy right now who dies having tested positive in one of their shonky SARS-CoV-2 tests is counted as a fatality of COVID-19. Therefore, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy breathlessly reported by the media don’t really mean much. It’s probably the same in that other leftist misinformation hole, Spain.

    It would be useful to know what the overall mortality rate in Italy has been in the last month or so. Is it any higher than in an average flu season?

  3. nfw

    Imagine that, end of the world models not working. Almost sounds like climate garbage models or economics.

  4. John Commenus

    Oops bad model. SCOMO can tell that to everyone who is now unemployed.

  5. max

    Little bit different topic:

    Helicopter Money for Wall Street
    by Wolf Richter

    If the Fed had sent that $942 billion it created over the past two weeks to the 130 million households in the US, each household would have received $7,250. But that didn’t happen. That was helicopter money for Wall Street.

    Since mid-September when the Fed started bailing out the repo market that had blown out, total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet soared by $1.41 trillion. If the Fed had sent that $1.41 trillion to the 130 million households in the US, each household would have received $10,840. But that didn’t happen either. It was helicopter money for Wall Street.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/26/helicopter-money-for-wall-street-federal-reserve-assets-balance-sheet/

    all in the name to save kids and average Joe lunchbucket

  6. Scott Osmond

    Now do this for climate change. They have been promising doom for decades and the only thing they’ve achieved is to drive up electricity prices, hollow out industry and export jobs to China leaving us at the mercy of the CCP and it’s incompetent rule.

  7. PB

    Well we do have old people with Corona disease in Spain being abandoned in Nursing Homes and likely dying from dehydration. You could argue their death would be from neglect yet it likely wouldn’t have occurred without Corona in the mix. Damned lies and statistics.

  8. Bronson

    What will Dr Wayne Swan use now? Guess he’ll just have to keep using ‘hyperbowl’ and bullsh** like he always does. Your ABC still giving it to you good and hard!

  9. Vicki

    As we said, when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.

    Nassim Taleb, “The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t”, The Guardian 25 March

  10. egg_

    Dr Norman Swan’s Coronacasting!
    Never let a good plague go to waste!

    Norman Swan
    @normanswan
    ·
    Mar 26
    Today’s Coronacast! ‘The tantalising scheme to fix coronavirus in only six weeks’ with the ABC listen app

  11. Leo G

    It’s as if about 80% of humanity already has some kind of immunity to COVID-19.

  12. lotocoti

    In today’s local rag, some medico reckons, per the official model, 2250 will need oxygen and 750 ventilation.
    With only one diagnosis in town, so far, we really will have to lift our game.

  13. Howard Hill

    Jeez that’s a relief. I was sure we were all going to fry if we all didn’t stop toasting our bread in the mornings. But I’m sure their ALPBC will dig up some expert to verify this all wrongthink in 3,2,1……

  14. MPH

    If high risk groups want to commit suicide by exposing themselves then why should everyone else suffer?

  15. Judge Dredd

    I have heard a couple of times that we have never tested for CV before, and since this new strain we do now test for it, therefore there are a lot of sick and dead patients that have a positive test yet they have probably died of something else. In the past, before the CV-scare, those deaths would have been recorded as anything but CV.
    I think there is a lot of evidence to be very skeptical on the response to this disease and to reasonably think the cure is worse than the disease.

  16. Mother Lode

    Luckily we have the precedent of AGW.

    Now that the models have obviously failed, we go to the next stage:

    DEPLOY THE SCOWLING AUTISTIC NORDIC TEENAGERS!

  17. Tel

    All models are wrong.

    Some models are useful.

  18. Watch Your Back

    If we consider, just for the moment, that the models have exaggerated by a factor of 25, we might think that the crisis will pass sooner than projected just a few days ago. This would be good news indeed.

    The economy could get back on its feet. To enable this, one might suggest Covid 19 tests which people can take at home. A negative result would see them being allowed back to work pdq, a negative result involves isolation, quarantine and treatment.

    The herd immunity would be allowed to kick in for school kids, so parents would need to self test every few days.

    Our oldies would remain isolated a bit longer, but we’d all be able to visit (from a distance) and take in essential supplies of food, chocolate and alcohol.

    Nil desperendum

  19. Chris M

    I have heard a couple of times that we have never tested for CV before, and since this new strain we do now test for it

    Not sure where you live but testing for coronavirus has been absolutely routine here for many, many years now (probably decades), they are very common cold viruses. This new Wuhan Chinese strain has been added to the test of course now, but all general types have been known and tested for a long time.

  20. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    All models are wrong.

    Some models are useful.

    Well said, Tel.

    And of course, some models are clearly garbage. In, and Out.
    Thinking a little green here, of course.

    We can only hope that this over-reliance on models, which vary greatly, as demonstrated in this epidemic, can introduce a much needed level of scepticism into climate modelling too.

  21. BorisG

    Kranks carry on !

    I told my Italian friend and coauthor that people here are angry with the government about all these restrictions

    His response:

    well, after all the casualties here, nobody is angry; you did not reach that state in Australia yet

    Hope we do not, thanks to our sane leaders, who acted a late but not way too late.

  22. BorisG

    Of curse the word ‘people’ here means a dozen Cats and a few other cranks here and there.

    Is there any political party in Australia that opposes government measures? Maybe PHON, Australian conservancies?

  23. BorisG

    Hi Lizzie, are you back in Australia ?

  24. BorisG

    And all those people who claim I am always wrong please remember that I predicted the virus problem to be over in about 2 months. And indeed I was almost exact. So accurate that it is even a surprise to myself.

    The Chinese have completely stuffed up in Wuhan but acted early and decisively in all other provinces. If they have managed to solve the problem even in Wuhan, surely we had an even better chance of solving it with even smaller death toll, given that we had extra 2 months to prepare for it. Perhaps the government could have mobilized resources like in wartime to get increase the number of ICU beds and ventilators 10 fold, and fast track train doctors and nurses, rather than just talk about shortages of all that.

    Had they done this, we would not need these restrictions and shutdowns.

  25. BorisG

    And all those people who claim I am always wrong please remember that I predicted the virus problem to be over in about 2 months.

    I meant in China.

  26. Archivist

    the predictions of the model don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy.

    Those are three completely different scenarios. Italy is a disaster; South Korea isn’t because it has stopped the spread of the virus; and China seemed to be a disaster initially, then their data went all weird and untrustworthy. Sounds like she was expecting more from the model than it could give.

    We’re about 5 times the size of Italy. If we were Italy, and you did those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They’re not close to achieving that.

    That doesn’t make any sense.

  27. Archivist

    If they have managed to solve the problem even in Wuhan, surely we had an even better chance of solving it with even smaller death toll, given that we had extra 2 months to prepare for it.

    We have no idea if they’ve solved it or not.
    They say they have, and maybe that’s true. Maybe it’s a lie.
    China has no independent media; the foreign press has been acting as a sort of proxy ‘independent media’ (imperfectly but it’s been at least something); but over the past few weeks the Chinese government have been kicking out foreign journalists, and have banned all foreigners from entry.

    Therefore, we don’t know the situation in Wuhan.

  28. Rohan

    The Chinese have completely stuffed up in Wuhan but acted early and decisively in all other provinces. If they have managed to solve the problem even in Wuhan, surely we had an even better chance of solving it with even smaller death toll, given that we had extra 2 months to prepare for it. Perhaps the government could have mobilized resources like in wartime to get increase the number of ICU beds and ventilators 10 fold, and fast track train doctors and nurses, rather than just talk about shortages of all that.

    BorisG, how many Aldi bags of cash from your ChiCom handler did you get to say that?

    Seriously.

  29. Squirrel

    Some of this modelling may have been done by the same people who thought that Michael Bloomberg should have given every American a million bucks, instead of wasting the equivalent……. amount of money on his Presidential campaign.

    Also – +1 to max’s comment about the disconnect between stock markets and the real economy – and the folly of pretending that the former can be a truly useful transmission to the latter in times like these.

  30. BorisG

    Therefore, we don’t know the situation in Wuhan.

    I agree Chinese numbers may be completely wrong. Lies is CCP’s second nature. But My friend Simon in Wuhan sends me daily updates, they are now out of lockdown and enjoying outdoors.

    OTOH. My Italian colleague says his 65 year old and healthy relative died of the virus a few days ago.

    stay home guys.

  31. NoFixedAddress

    Tel
    #3379429, posted on March 27, 2020 at 5:35 pm

    All models are wrong.

    Some models are useful.

    this is a Liberty Quote

  32. Archivist

    All models are wrong.
    Some models are useful.

    this is a Liberty Quote

    It’s a famous quote by the British statistician George Box.

  33. old bloke

    Watch Your Back
    #3379481, posted on March 27, 2020 at 5:52 pm

    Our oldies would remain isolated a bit longer, but we’d all be able to visit (from a distance) and take in essential supplies of food, chocolate and alcohol.

    And tobacco, don’t forget the tobacco.

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