Protecting The Shutdown

The problem of states now having a huge vested interest in managing c-v death statistics had occurred to me:

Guidelines recently released by the Centers for Disease Control bolster concerns that the death toll is being rigged to show a higher fatality rate. “In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID-19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed’,” the agency advises. “In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgment in determining if a COVID-19 infection was likely.”

That clinical judgment, alarmingly, does not require administering a test to confirm the presence of the virus.

“Ideally, testing for COVID-19 should be conducted, but it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate without this confirmation if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty,” the guidelines state…

 
Note that I said a vested interest in managing the statistics. I didn’t say boosting them. The political balancing act requires governments to frighten the public enough to justify destroying the economic lives of their citizens while also assuring the public that, sans shut-downs, the fatalities would definitely have been Even Worse. Both narratives will get an airing for months to come depending on the circumstances.

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15 Responses to Protecting The Shutdown

  1. The BigBlueCat

    There is no doubt that people have died as a direct result of COVID19 infection. It appears to be a particularly nasty way of dying, and the severity of symptoms seems to vary based on a wide range of factors. the same applies to influenza and any number of other seasonal infections.

    I suspect the reported statistics include deaths of people with COVID-19 rather than from COVID-19. What we’ve seen is tremendous over-reach by governments in terms of lock-downs and keeping people at home, and they seem to have taken major satisfaction in implementing major civil restrictions to the point many are questioning if too many of our civil liberties have been curtailed, or that many of those civil liberties have gone forever.

    While fines for a learner driver and a mountain biker on his way to a trail have been over-turned, it is clear that even as individuals presenting no risk to the public at large are being targeted for government control. All we need now is for Amazon’s Alexa devices to listen in to conversations and reporting anything the government considers dangerous ….

    George Orwell might now be considered a prophet rather than someone who was merely issuing a warning.

  2. Rebel with cause

    I tend to believe the eyewitness accounts from doctors and nurses in affected hospitals that they haven’t seen anything like this virus before and it is creating unique demands on the health system.

    There is also no doubt that the economic impact of the pandemic and the policy response is extraordinary and will be long lived.

    The decisions that have been made by our leaders will be poured over and assessed like no others since those made in WWII. We won’t simply ‘move on’ from this.

    Right now people are putting their faith in government to manage through this, but if it turns out that faith was misplaced the judgement will be swift and harsh.

  3. flyingduk

    For once I am enjoying the schadenfreude of watching government having the ‘things not seen’ problem themselves, instead of the poor taxpayer. Normally, government benefits from the invisibility of the COSTS of their various projects (no one sees the businesses that didn’t succeed/expand due to the added burden of taxation), they just bask in the BENEFITS (think, bridges built, submarine workers employed etc). Now, even if their economy destroying measures are fully justified (to save thousands of lives), the public wont get proof of that, because the deaths didn’t happen.

  4. feelthebern

    I suspect the reported statistics include deaths of people with COVID-19 rather than from COVID-19.

    Of course that is the case.
    Does any sane person think otherwise ?

  5. cuckoo

    Now, even if their economy destroying measures are fully justified (to save thousands of lives), the public wont get proof of that, because the deaths didn’t happen.

    As of yesterday they are already rolling out ‘modelling’ that ‘shows’ how much worse things would have been without the shutdown measures. These models and others like them to come will be flogged as post facto justification of everything the government does, for years to come. It’s common sense that the shutdown slows the disease, but to quote hard numbers from these models is just fairyland stuff. To his credit ScoMo did emphasize that these were models, not observations.

  6. The key point here is affected hospitals particularly if looking at Italy and NY.

    However the figures for virus cases in ICUs around the country are insignificant relative to the total ICU capacity. 11 in Qld with 2 in one major hospital the other day. The same system that currently seems to be operating at below normal capacity due to clearing the wards.

    It may be that killing the economy to kill a virus that so far is killing the elderly (many with pre-existing conditions) is working. How old has been the youngest death of the 50 so far. It helps the agenda, ie. shutdown, to scare the people.

    “I tend to believe the eyewitness accounts from doctors and nurses in affected hospitals that they haven’t seen anything like this virus before and it is creating unique demands on the health system”.

    Meanwhile not one civil servant or politician has taken a pay cut. Even the Uni VC’s have given up 20%.

  7. Cynic of Ayr

    I’m and old bloke. (Jeez, did I ever think I was ever gunna say that?)
    I guess one foot is in the grave, and the other on an orange peel, not quite yet a banana peel.
    Here are some rough USA figures Wiki told me, as comparison with the panic now ensuing.

    USA WWI, round figures
    53,000 dead from Combat
    204,000 wounded. (not sure if some of these went back to combat, in which case they could be in two lists.)

    USA WWII, round figures
    291,000 dead from combat
    670,000 wounded (ditto)

    USA Vietnam, round figures
    47,000 dead from combat
    153,000 wounded

    Consider that the majority, if not all, of combat deaths and totally debilitated wounded, were from the younger, productive, life-ahead-of-them men, and some women.
    The virus, on the other hand, is affecting by far, the older population, and also by far, those who have an existing illness. In fact, it seems that you do not have to die from the virus, merely have it when you croaked.
    Now, the cost of this debacle is not going to fall on me, nor any other old feller with his foot on an orange peel. Even if it does kill me, no one will give a rat’s arse anyway.
    It’s going to fall on the very same type of people who are in the above combat lists. They’ll be paying for this for a very long time. Long after Morrison’s full time pension runs out on his death bed.
    What’s my point? I think we have been far to, re-active, and not nearly enough pro-active.
    Also there are too many egos vying for a place in the 15 minutes of fame department. We have Doctors with opposing opinions. We have “Models” (haha) of opposing results.
    We have doctors on on hand saying the hydroxychloroquine works, and we have doctors saying it doesn’t. We have the USA head serang doctor saying it’s not worth it, because it only works half the time!
    We have a USA Governor banning hydroxychloroquine, then a few days later, begging for it.
    I think that the damage to younger peoples lives is going to be as bad as the Wars, and I wonder if it’s worth it, just so some Pollie or Doctor can avoid being blamed by the lefties for not doing the correct thing.
    Maybe we should be “handling it” rather than “avoiding it.” Because, we will have to “handle it” if and when the bans are lifted, because it will still be here.

  8. Beachcomber

    Latest Euromomo stats: Covid-19 visible in some countries, but no disaster, Sweden fine.

    This again tells us that this is a nasty-but-fairly-normal winter virus, and not a general once-in-a-century mass killer.

  9. Alan

    I was actually thinking the same thing.
    TGA: COVID-19 testing in Australia – try to interpret what these terms mean:
    • “cannot detect if an individual is infectious”
    • “The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain”
    • “presumptive positive”
    • “false-negative rate … is not known”
    • “False-negative results pose a significant risk”

  10. Youngster

    The US in underreporting deaths. Lots of deaths outside hospitals aren’t getting post mortem testing, and some COVID-19 positive patients don’t have the virus shown as the cause of death.

  11. Tel

    My personal belief is that there were plenty of Australian Wu-Flu cases in December and January before anyone had the slightest idea of what was going on. Most likely many got misdiagnosed as related to bushfire smoke inhalation. How many? Dunno, could be hundreds. Too many people were getting sick around that time with similar symptoms for it to be random chance.

    The normal process for Australian doctors is never test anything, and the only reason we are doing any tests here is because other countries were doing it. If no one had told us to be worried, we would all be out at the beach, playing golf and any deaths would have simply be added to normal pneumonia deaths in the good old NFI category “Pneumonia, organism unspecified (J18)” which is always the biggest category by far every year in Australia.

    Just saying, but that’s how it works.

  12. Tim Neilson

    some COVID-19 positive patients don’t have the virus shown as the cause of death.

    It would be ludicrous if they all did.

    Say a 95 year old terminal cancer patient tests positive and dies without having had to be put on a ventilator for the virus, should that really be counted as a COVID 19 death?

  13. Absolutely not, but given the way smoking data is manipulated, I bet you one hundred Zimbabwean Dollars that is the case.

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