The actual cost of the shut down is $300 million per life saved

I will have to apologise since I calculated the cost-per-life-saved incorrectly in my previous post. I had estimated the number at $30 million per person saved by the shutdown of the economy. I have, however, been contacted by an actuary who has alerted me to the same costing error as noted in the comments by Bad Samaritan:

Steve. I agree 100%, but have just re-read your cry-from-the-heart, and I come up with it costing three hundred million per life saved; not $30 Million.

This makes it even more imperative that strong steps be taken to do something since a human life is worth ten times more than any of us first thought!

The actual cost-per-life-saved is $300 million. And that is an accurate estimate of the cost, and until the government provides a better one, this seems as accurate as one can work it out. Of course, the same ethical principles apply as previously.

I will however note by way of an explanation that I am hardly the first person in the midst of this pandemic to get their numerical estimates wrong although I may be the only one to have reduced the impact in the calculations I had made. Let me highlight a bit of what’s going on. First this: Dr. Birx: Government Classifying All Deaths Of Patients With Coronavirus As COVID-19 Deaths. Hmmmmm:

According to the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, the government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths.

Dr. Deborah Birx made that announcement during Tuesday’s briefing. She confirmed the classification will be made regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to loss of life.

The task force coordinator went on to say the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths despite other nations doing the exact opposite.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and lets say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem, some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death,” she explained. “Right now, we’re still recording it.”

That is, every number you see coming from the United States has been amplified as a matter of policy. And here is further confirmation: HOW HONEST IS THE COVID FATALITY COUNT? About as honest as you might expect from governments who have gone hysterical in predicting doom and disaster.

Dr. Scott Jensen is both a physician and a Minnesota state senator. Yesterday he was interviewed by a local television station and dropped a bombshell: he, and presumably all other Minnesota doctors, got a seven-page letter from the Minnesota Department of Health that gave guidance on how to classify COVID-19 deaths. The letter said that if a patient died of, e.g., pneumonia, and was believed to have been exposed to COVID-19, the death certificate should say that COVID-19 was the cause of death even though the patient was never tested, or never tested positive, for that disease.

And among the comments there was this:

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We are dealing with out and out fraud. There is then this: CDC Director: Virus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much Lower’ Than Models. Also reported here: Fauci admits previous projection of 100K-240K coronavirus deaths was likely an overestimate. But what do we get in the papers, just sent to me online this morning: NEW YORK’S SHOCKING VIRUS STATISTIC AS UK DEATHS SPIKE.

New York and New Jersey have both seen their daily death tolls jump to unwanted new records on Wednesday (local time) for the second day in a row, while New York City’s coronavirus toll surged well past 4500 — significantly more than the number killed in the September 11 terror attacks.

And then there was this on a comment which is just from a non-expert deplorable here

Saw this chart a few days ago from NYC health officials. Looking at the deaths AND previous underlying health conditons is very compelling. Of 1139 deaths at that moment in time only 14 of them did not have underlying health issues. And they are scamming us in another way also. They started couting the “confirmed” cases with case #1 and counting. So this is eventually going to be a really big number, the kind the media and dem party just love.Where it gets less than honest is when they fail to deduct the “recovered cases” from the original number. The Maine CDC gives me a chart in various ways but does the same thing. I am taking their info and have been making my own chart for ten days. I do the simple arithmetic and have a column showing just “active” cases, those who still are treating for it. The number of recovered cases as a percentage of confirmed cases is growing steadily. I wrote to them late today and suggest they show the “active” as another column in order to help give people some peace of mind. I also asked them for a chart of the death rate vs underlying health issues. Not sure what I will get for an answer.

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$300 million dollars per life saved. And this is part of our collective wealth that has been dissipated and will never come back again.

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27 Responses to The actual cost of the shut down is $300 million per life saved

  1. notafan

    In other words, some places are overcounting and others are undercounting.

  2. notafan

    Incidentally Minnesota has had 22 covid19 deaths.

    22.

    And only one non msm outlet is running the big bad story.

  3. notafan

    As for demanding autopsies of covid19 deaths.

    Really?

    People that demand autopsies of all pandemic dead should gown up.

  4. stackja

    Putting a value on life?
    Who lives? Who dies?
    Volunteers?

  5. Beachcomber

    We are dealing with out and out fraud.

    There is an abundance of evidence that this is the case. e.g. the mortality rate in the the 2017/18 flu season in the US was measurably higher than it has been in this 2019/20 flu season.
    It’s right there for everyone to see, but it doesn’t matter. As already shown in the replies above, there is a desire to believe in and obey our Overlords. They want to love Big Brother.

  6. notafan

    Only if you believe there is a world wide conspiracy with Trump in gloved hand with X
    i, Johnson, Macron, the Prime Minister of Japan etc etc

    I think there is sufficient evidence that there is a real Sars 2 pandemic but Australia is not particularly affected.

    I don’t agree with the measures currently in place here.

    I think people should go back to work where possible and if we do seen big numbers of young healthy people getting very sick we can reverse.

  7. notafan

    That data at what’s up goes to early March at which time the US apparently only had 30 covid19 deaths.

    I think things have changed a little since then.

    It’s too early for this kind of analysis.

    .

  8. ryki

    Only if you believe there is a world wide conspiracy with Trump in gloved hand with X
    i, Johnson, Macron, the Prime Minister of Japan etc etc

    Politicians are herd animals. They see one of their fellow idiots do something they are far more inclined to do it themselves – even if it doesn’t make any sense to them. Once a large majority has done it then the few holdouts get increasingly nervous and relent themselves – even though all sense and reason tells them not to.

    It is called mass hysteria. You should know. You are caught right up in it.

    As for demanding autopsies of covid19 deaths.
    Really?

    Yes wouldn’t it be terrible to find information that would prove that your hysteria was, well, hysteria?

    Why are you still going on about this? It’s done. Death rates are not increasing. The virus is not spreading and never did. You’re wrong and you have been wrong about everything from the very beginning. You can’t run to “coronavirus deaths” because we now know that all of them are rigged.

    I knew what was going on. I knew about it from the very first day that the “discovery” of the virus was announced. But you didn’t have a clue. At first you followed the “it probably won’t be so bad crowd” but only because others were saying the same. But as the news stories ramped up, you got more and more scared. You thought “well so many people all say it’s true I guess it has to be” not realising that you were slap bang in the middle of a rising tide of hysteria.

  9. ryki

    In other words, some places are overcounting and others are undercounting.

    No. You don’t get to do that. You can’t assume it all balances out just because that suits your narrative.

    Given that you have just admitted that we cannot possibly trust coronavirus data statistics the only valid way of determining if we are in the midst of any kind of pandemic is to look at total death rates.

  10. Bad Samaritan

    Hi. just back from Centrelink talking to the “complex assessments team”…

    I’ve agreed to accept $200 million to go quietly…thus saving the nation 33.33% of the standard fee, and will finally have a decent inheritance to pass on to the grieving should I get the sniffles. Also had the aunt and uncle in on a conference call, where they accepted a $300 million bundle deal for both!

    Some may scoff, but when you consider that Centrelink would pay me something like $700,000 over twenty years if I make it to pension age + then to 87….it’s actually only $199.3 million I’m costing them. A discount for advance payment….as I always say; “never accept retail”!

  11. Botswana O'Hooligan

    It’s ironic that Rudd gave even the dead $900 (not me) and now it is going to cost 300 million a piece to keep a few of us old bastards alive for perhaps a few years longer thus proving once again that truth is stranger than fiction.

  12. Judith Sloan

    The good thing Steve is that on your calculations, the cost per lives saved is so much lower in Italy, Spain, France, the UK and the US because of their much higher death rates. Way to go? Not sure.

  13. notafan

    You are right ryki

    The only place there is a (dubious) claim of deliberate over counting is Minnesota with 22 deaths.

    And I’m saying it’s too early to look at total death rates.

    And looking at total death rates doesn’t help work out how many hospital beds are needed/ being used right now around the world for critically ill people.

  14. Watch Your Back

    I’m not one to say I told you so….

    I offered the QALY calculation (admittedly utilitarian) at $100,000 US per QALY.
    We can calculate the lives saved on this metric according to the overall ages of those who in fact died. I’m g guessing $2.5 million.

    As you say, the cost of government spending and lost production goes far beyond this. $300 billion is a lot of money.

    It seems obvious to me that:

    1. Oldies should be isolated for as long as needed;
    2. The rest of us should get back to work ASAP
    3. Schools and unis should re-open.
    4. Restrictions on everyday life should be lifted.

  15. notafan

    Exactly Watch Your Back

    What some of us have been saying for weeks.

  16. Formerly-A- Political

    “The Actual cost of a Life Saved is $300 million”.

    Lives cannot be saved. From the moment we are born we are travelling towards death. Nobody, but nobody escapes death. All we can do is prolong life.

    When the politicians or doctors speak of “saving lives”, they are misleading the gullible public, who never think about the true implications of what the politician and doctors’ statements mean. I repeat, we are all going to die, unpleasant as this thought may be. Sooner or later we all face the “Grime Reaper”.

    Those who have a good immune system are more likely to survive, those who suffer from chronic diseases are more likely to succumb to the added assault of a virus which overwhelms their immune system. The state or doctors may be able to prolong some lives, however at an enormous cost to all other citizens, in terms of primarily, i) denying people critical medical care as hospital wards are closed while awaiting corona virus patients who perhaps never arrive, or ii) cause such economic pain and mayhem that our economy will take years to recover.

  17. nfw

    Politicians and the health industry lying to us? How odd. You would never expect politicians who just just want to control and pretend to be concerned and those with vested interests in receiving both cash and “adulation” to lie. That just seems wrong doesn’t it? Still no response about why we Australians can’t travel during Easter (or in the case of interstaters to stay pretty much in place) but why Chinese were permitted to go to Wuhan Virus Flu central and come back and why all those non-Australian non-resident Chinese national “students” are still in country. Almost seems as if the racist fascist CCP runs the show doesn’t it?

  18. It is not lives saved, but deaths deferred!!
    .
    Because flattening the curve means lowering the peak – not the number that die. And looking at the cohort of those who have passed. This deferment could be counted in days, weeks or months and not necessarily in years.

    An analysis of daily deaths during covid compared to previous years also show little variation in the cohort of people who die on any given day.

  19. I have been looking at the Health Dept virus stats that Michael Smith has been putting up. Only seen 5,7 and 8 April.

    A few days ago there was a drop in one day from 250 to 92 current case in VIC. Down to 40% of previous days total ! SA is odd in that they don’t have many case but their proportion of ICU cases relative to current cases was 50% (ie. 10/20). Qld about 25%. I had already noted that Qld seems to have been running at 11 or 12 in the ICU for the last week (total ICU in Qld 800). Qld total cases so far about 950.

    However of the 950 I have not seen stats for how many required hospitalisation or how many ended up in ICU. The stats tell you how many new cases per day but not how many go into hospital or ICU.

    Then you have the half empty Govt hospitals but the Premier of Qld going on about health workers doing double shifts. How many are actually doing that ? 20 ? Because with 11 ICU cases in whole of Qld I am finding it hard to comprehend. Have not seen stats for total in hospital at current time which I don’t believe is same as actual cases as all may not be in hospital.

    On the radio this morning there was yet another virus expert. He mentioned that initial projections of deaths in NZ had been 28,000 which was a greater proportion than Italy has had. Only 1 actual death so far.

    I have not bothered to look for the original source of the graphics but the current case numbers and those in ICU just does not match up with the Armageddon scenario playing out in the media or politicians press conferences.

    Perhaps somebody here who is more into Excel and stats could look into it further or I may just be missing a good source where already clear.

    Meanwhile the Govt has come to an arrangement to take over private hospitals capacity.

    I find it all a bit odd.

  20. Simple Simon

    notafan
    #3402462, posted on April 9, 2020 at 4:08 pm

    Only if you believe there is a world wide conspiracy with Trump in gloved hand with Xi, Johnson, Macron, the Prime Minister of Japan etc etc

    The PM here (Japan) is resisting calls from vested interests for a lockdown.

    Japan is not in lockdown, despite the best efforts of the sensation-seeking media and ‘public health’ vested interests.

    The WHO is also applying pressure to Japan to conform.

    So far, the central government here is resisting the imposition the sort of methods imposed by Xi, Johnson, Macron et al. and has even explicitly said that they are not appropriate.

  21. notafan

    That wasn’t what I was saying.

    Nor did I claim Japan was in lockdown.

    I don’t think the Prime Minister of Japan denies there is a pandemic, does he?

    Not ever country is taking the same steps.

  22. Crossie

    Given that you have just admitted that we cannot possibly trust coronavirus data statistics the only valid way of determining if we are in the midst of any kind of pandemic is to look at total death rates.

    I said that before, the real death rate from this infection is the difference between the current rate and the normal rate. Everything else is hysteria.

  23. Balto

    I think people are still underestimating the economic carnage that this global shutdown is going to cause. Having said that, it’s disappointing to see misleading graphs being shared on Twitter and elsewhere that try to downplay the severity of the virus. This is a good summary of what’s out there: Debunking Coronavirus Trutherism.

  24. Tel

    Lives cannot be saved. From the moment we are born we are travelling towards death. Nobody, but nobody escapes death. All we can do is prolong life.

    Yes, the correct measure is years saved, which is the time that those people dead from Wu Flu would have lived to do other things until something else got them.

    This can directly be compared with years lost. Every single day of quarantine keeping 25 million people under house arrest is about 94,000 years lost, where those Australians lost that day which could have been used for the things they wanted to do.

    And the Liberal Party must be destroyed at the ballot box.

  25. MarcH

    Given the average age at death is 80 and the average Australian life expectancy is 82.5 the actual spend is just that 2.5 years for each death. So it’s not $300M per whole life, but $300M for those 2,5 years. Recalculating for whole life we have: $300M /2.5 = $120M per life year x 82.5 = $9.9Billion!
    And to think during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 when the government were warned of up to 20000 deaths Kevin Rudd applied a zero value to the lot of us. Amazing the price of hysteria but I feel so much more worthwhile now.

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