Thursday Forum: April 9, 2020

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1,555 Responses to Thursday Forum: April 9, 2020

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  1. Ed Case

    Is anyone thinking of a resolution that doesn’t involve a vaccine? I think they should.

    Once the farmers start walking away and domestic food production crashes, the lockdown will stop?
    That won’t take 6 months.

  2. cohenite

    The only thing about you is your obsession with the male apendage and ghey sex. That’s the closest your get to understanding virile ogy as you have it all confused.

    Not just any male appendage head prefect.

    Even though you’re so beastly and unfair: for instance your praise of what Gilas said:

    The simplest way to look at it is to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) of total deaths (AUC-d), divided by the AUC of total cases (AUC-t) for a set time period, time is the third factor.

    Is what I have been saying all along, for your benefit, because I know you like things simple you ungrateful brute.

  3. feelthebern

    I just think we need to be careful calculating and quoting stats.

    This is why it is imperative to those who support the lockdown to corrupt the data.
    Incomplete data corrupts the data set.

  4. herodotus

    Double Bass: you’ve got to be constantly thinking a second and a half ahead. Christ knows how anyone improvises on one.
    Red Mitchell does a fine job and really plumbs the low notes – if your sound system is up to it.
    Brian Bromberg, Christian McBride, and that old leftist Charlie Haden are also good.

  5. JC

    divided by the AUC of total cases

    I think that means total cases recorded. We need total cases working way through a population.. a randomized study.

    Book titles.

  6. cohenite

    Mum of coronavirus-hit nurse, 29, who died alone at home says ‘we couldn’t have wished for a better daughter’
    Rather obese.
    How unfit are these Medics who are dying?

    That’s no good; fit or unfit, if the chunk virus starts knocking over the young ‘uns, we’re stuffed. I did read somewhere that the amount of virus the body has plays a part as well. Maybe she got badly exposed.

  7. egg_

    Grigs has previously posted that he is a doctor with “rooms”.

    Dr Grigs MD QC?

  8. Bruce of Newcastle

    Easily the most successful country in the world at stopping this virus.

    Uh oh, Fisky will be receiving a stern letter from the Chinese Embassy tomorrow for the temerity of calling Taiwan a country.

    Don’t miss Tim Blair’s articles on the sternness of the defenders of heavenly mandates this week:

    Via Local Commie Underlings, Beijing Officially Disapproves (4 Apr)

    ‘China Has Bats. Australia Has Balls’ (9 Apr)

    Tim is now officially big in India!

  9. Is anyone thinking of a resolution that doesn’t involve a vaccine? I think they should.

    How about an cheap, effective and widely available treatment?
    Vaccines take more time.

    Effective treatment takes away some the pharma bonanza for a vaccine.

  10. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV)

    Grigs has previously posted that he is a doctor with “rooms”.

    one up top for business, one out back for parties

  11. JC

    During these times when government debt is pretty meaningless… until it becomes meaningful.. there’s one sure way to have the asset markets in Australia rock and rolling forward. Remove capital gains tax and do I immediately.

    It would be the equivalent of a plumber sticking a metal snake into a toilet blockage.

  12. Fisky

    ABC starts up with the “calls” for foreigners on temporary visas to get welfare and permanent residence

    From the end of this month, Mr Bhattarai will be without any source of income because of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on his tourist-dependent job.

    Mr Bhattarai is on a foreign visa, meaning he is ineligible for a share in the $130 billion in wage support that passed both houses of the Federal Parliament this.

    Note how they don’t say what visa class he is on. I bet it’s a student visa!

  13. Seven States Mencius

    How about an cheap, effective and widely available treatment?

    Done and dusted. But someone wants us dead.

  14. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Dr Grigs MD QC?

    Dr Grogarly MD, QC, N.B.G, V.D and scar?

  15. JC

    Rones is only comfortable throwing dirt around from the back of a crowd.

  16. cohenite

    By popular demand: more exciting book titles:

    The Loneliest Ho in the world: what if Santa was gay.
    The book of bored animals: games you can play with your pussy.
    Your maggot: the ultimate book of sexual slang.
    How to use the silent treatment in a street fight.

    Guess which one is for head prefect.

  17. woolfe

    Unfortunately JC for those of us with Zimstralian $ the USA is really expensive now.

  18. Bruce of Newcastle

    Telluride looks like a great little town too.

    Makes my chemist’s heart glad.
    Named after AuTe2 and related gold/silver tellurides.
    Also from the look of the main street they might like Pb too, 45 calibre.

  19. Tel

    Mum of coronavirus-hit nurse, 29, who died alone at home says ‘we couldn’t have wished for a better daughter’

    If the NHS had supplied her with a mask she probably would still be alive.

    Virus dosage level matters. If you are in the street and catch a waft of exhalation from someone walking the other way your immune system has some material to go to work on making you immune, but not enough to hit you too hard. On the other hand frontline medical workers are getting hit with heavy blasts of this virus which is clearly airborne and therefore going to fill the hospital wards very quickly with floating particles.

    There were a number of clues that this is an airborne virus:
    * People getting sick on that Diamond Princess who were in their own cabins all day (social isolation failed the first time it was tested).
    * The Chinese response with the full body suit and full face mask with goggles.
    * The Chinese temporary hospital setup using negative pressure rooms and an air scrubber system.

    An yet our government fuckwittery brigade told us just wash hands with soap and you will be fine … bullshit. The New York hospitals sent in medical workers with garbage bags wrapped around their heads, in a first world nation. Sheesh we have a lot of cleaning up to do.

    The stealthy stealth virus has smoked out the Fabian sleeper cells amongst us … how poetic.

  20. someone on this blog said that C19 behaves more like a toxin.
    i.e. a high dose or prolonged exposure or a weakened physiology and it kills.
    In Italy, long exposed medical staff carking it*
    small doses seemingly not a problem

    * ignoring the PRC doctors who died of lead poisoning

  21. JC

    Get a load of a fat fucking who beat the china bug.

    EXCLUSIVE: Harvey Weinstein beats coronavirus: Rapist, 68, is released from his 14-day quarantine but remains on suicide watch, as those close to the disgraced producer say they thought it was the ‘end of him’

  22. Fisky

    These foreign “students” demanding welfare and the right to stay in Australia forever, are only one notch up from the Iranian country shoppers. They should be booted out at once. There are lots of foreign students in the PRC as well, even in Wuhan, and they would not dream of going to the state media to demand welfare. If they transgressed so much as one clause of their visa conditions, it’s straight to the quarantine hotel at your expense, thank you very much.

    We should just stop immigration now. It’s creating a sense of entitlement among the people we’re bringing in, that they would never dream of pushing in any other country in the region. We’re a laughing stock.

  23. JC

    Virus dosage level matters.

    Does that matter with the flu and colds as well?

    If someone catches what they describe as “a mild dose” of the flu or a cold, is the flu or cold type or the dose (or both obviously)?

  24. Nick

    Strange how it’s always the ABC that gives oxygen to individual stories of ethnic self interest and greed.

  25. JC

    Get a load of a fat fuck who beat the china bug.

    EXCLUSIVE: Harvey Weinstein beats coronavirus: R*pist, 68, is released from his 14-day quarantine but remains on suicide watch, as those close to the disgraced producer say they thought it was the ‘end of him’

  26. egg_

    someone on this blog said that C19 behaves more like a toxin.

    Moi.
    Leo noted the long exposure time to acquire the aerosols in relation to the Diamond Princess data, e.g. 30 min. in the presence of an infected person.
    Who knows what frontline Medics would be exposed to?

  27. Tel

    Does that matter with the flu and colds as well?

    Dunno, I’m learning about this as it comes out. Probably yes because early vaccines for many things were “live virus” versions and they did work (with occasional mishaps).

    i.e. a high dose or prolonged exposure or a weakened physiology and it kills.
    In Italy, long exposed medical staff carking it*
    small doses seemingly not a problem

    That’s the story I’m hearing, with the complication that if you happen to be at risk in various ways then for you small doses REALLY DO matter.

  28. Roger

    Bar Beach Swimmer, do you have a link for that article?

    It concurs with another I read early this morning.

  29. Tel

    Get a load of a fat fuck who beat the china bug.

    The virus took a peek at Harvey’s erection, then got up, backed out of the room and spent the night with Bubba instead.

  30. Bruce of Newcastle

    If the NHS had supplied her with a mask hydroxychloroquine she probably would still be alive.

    FIFY.

    US health regulator approves two malaria drugs as a last resort for coronavirus patients in hospital – but the UK will only let doctors use the promising medications in trials (31 Mar)

    The UK-equivalent of the FDA, the MHRA, said they should only be used for treating coronavirus patients in a trial until there is ‘clear’ evidence they work and are safe – a process that could take months.

    GPs ‘strongly discouraged’ from prescribing antimalarials for Covid-19 (9 Apr)

    GPs are ‘strongly discouraged’ from prescribing antimalarial drugs to treat Covid-19 while clinical trials are ongoing, NHS England has said.

    Both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are now included in the Chinese guidelines on the management of Covid-19.

    But, rather than prescribing these drugs off licence, NHS England has urged GPs to help enrol patients into three newly-launched UK trials into Covid-19 treatments.

    Socialized medicine gives similar results to socialized government.

  31. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Lizzie, your musings about your future overseas holidays shows a real callousness about what is happening to tens of thousands (at a minimum) of small and medium sized businesses, their owners and employees.

    And Calli’s husband doing the same sort of planning does not? Somewhat selective, aren’t you?

    What a bitter and obsessed person you are. You’ve led the way here to make this a lesser forum than it was before your arrival, by introducing the hatred and envy element. Why not stick to what you can do well? Commenting sensibly. Why on earth constantly demean yourself with your bitterness about me?

    You’ve slimed your way up the greasy pole, by means we won’t mention.

    I don’t know what you are imputing here, but it sounds like something objectionable.

    I’m married to someone who had a good career, as I did, and we are enjoying our retirement together. We are well off, through our own efforts, as are others on this blog. And there is no shame in that.

  32. Crossie

    The Oz has been running stories for last 5/6 days about jobs cuts and loss of income in Universities.

    I heard Sydney University is in the hole for half a billion due to loss of international students.

  33. egg_

    * The Chinese temporary hospital setup using negative pressure rooms and an air scrubber system.

    Typical Military setup.

  34. Tel

    Socialized medicine gives similar results to socialized government.

    For the Greater Good (TM).

  35. areff

    I heard Sydney University is in the hole for half a billion due to loss of international students.

    good.

  36. Mitch M.

    Roger
    #3404052, posted on April 10, 2020 at 12:46 pm
    Bar Beach Swimmer, do you have a link for that article?

    It concurs with another I read early this morning.

    Roger the only link I found was on Medium by libertymavenstock. If you can point me to your link it will be appreciated.

    http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https:/medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

  37. Bruce of Newcastle

    I heard Sydney University is in the hole for half a billion due to loss of international students.

    And Melbourne Uni too according to the Paywallian today.

  38. Seven States Mencius

    Governor Prtizger. I was hoping to be able to blame this one exclusively on boot-baddies. So thats what they are doing. Moving us towards some horrific sterilising vaccine. Thats the goal clearly divined.

  39. Top Ender

    Possibly an impromptu septic tank

    French drains! Who knew?

  40. Gilas

    feelthebern
    #3403961, posted on April 10, 2020 at 11:58 am

    Thank you FTB.
    As this thing’s so politicized, all published data is suspect, just eyeballing BNO News should raise alarm bells, and not just in relation to China’s and Russia’s figures.

  41. I am creeping tentatively towards the view that not all Norwegians are shitheaded r-soles like their Swedish neighbours.
    The ‘Lilyhammer’ series was genuinely funny and amazingly anti-PC. The movie ‘In Order of Disapearance’ currently on SBS On Demand is a genuine hoot.
    No doubt the Norwegian ambassador has been called in by the Swedish foreign office to explain his nation’s deviationist failings.

  42. Howard Hill

    Top Ender
    #3403849, posted on April 10, 2020 at 10:59 am

    Kevin Rudd outraged to learn no-one cares what he thinks about anything

    Rudd signalled he will write a book about his current experiences.

    “I understand people are doing it tough economically, that’s why I’ll be giving it away for free just like my last book.”

    Anyone wanting to get into politics should have to undergo a psych test before they get anywhere near the levers of power. That would dismiss 99% of the morons there now and we would never have had the displeasure of hearing of this loon.

  43. Geriatric Mayfly

    Regardless of no congregants will their be a Pascal Mass in St Mary’s tonight? Be nice to see George preside. ABC meltdown to the music of head explosions at levels of supernovae magnificence.

  44. Bruce of Newcastle

    And this is the outcome of a lack of socialised medicine.

    Numbers – NYC is one of the most socialist precincts in the US.
    De Blasio is notoriously socialist!
    Your example is a near perfect supporting citation for my thesis.

  45. Gilas

    From the OOT:
    JC
    #3403980, posted on April 10, 2020 at 12:10 pm

    Good article.

    The current uncertainties, obvious from my reading:

    1) Viral antibody conversion rate – anyone’s guess. It often is NOT 100%, as test-kit manufacturers would like you to believe.

    2) Conversion delay – depending on patient protoplasm (general fitness), this could be 2-6+ weeks, therefore all test negatives are meaningless (an immutable law of medical testing, as powerful as the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics), positives are far more useful, but see 3)

    3) Viral test-kit(s) sensitivity and specificity – strongly dependent on what is being measured, ie.
    host-produced IgG antibody,
    virion RNA thru PCR – most sensitive and specific
    sample type (naso-pharynx swab, blood) – sampling error always present.

    4) Re-infection rate – strongly dependent on:
    a) patient protoplasm and immune system – some patients will not mount an effective immune response and can be re-infected, while appearing negative on screening testing.
    and
    b) still unknown virion sanctuary site/s – release re-infection. This is common if the virion hides in the nervous system (as has been suggested). As an example, see Herpes Zoster.

    5) Contribution of COVID to the morbidity/mortality. Should only be given as a cause if death is precipitated by respiratory failure in the presence of CXR evidence of bilateral:
    a) Pulmonary oedema, (endothelial failure due to heme dissociation), ground-glass CXR
    or
    b) Diffuse interstitial pneumonitis, “fluffy nodular” CXR appearance.

    NOT if the patient dies by other means (pre-morbid conditions) while serologically COVID +ve.

    The currently unknowns 1) – 4) are fundamental in establishing prevalence/incidence/mortality etc.. rates.

    Manipulation of 5) most probably explains the largely inconsistent, published [email protected] data differences between countries.

  46. Roger

    Thanks Bar Beach.

    Here’s mine.

    (Concurs might be too strong, but the links point to a building consensus on how to best treat sufferers.)

  47. min

    Agree HH I have been pushing psych tests for Politicians for ages. I remarked to Josh F that even middle management are given psych tests these days . Perhaps a nice Millon that sorts out as we used to say ,the mads bads and sads. At least it would have picked up NPD and perhaps more bads ,the odd sociopath , got the sads treated earlier and the other category paranoia?.
    I would also be looking for those who do not rely on self esteem instead of self worth and thus needing approval . Well we can only keep trying but then there has also got to be a good interviewer who can “read” the interviewee reliably.

  48. Atoms for Peace

    I wonder if the propagandists for the CCP have twigged yet that there are a lot of pissed off people with time on their hands. Time enough to look at timelines and how sociopathic the chinese leadership has been. Time enough to share comments about China’s plague and road initiative. Guess I wont be in the running for fraternal tractor driver of the year award.

  49. Atoms for Peace

    The Epoch Times youtube on origins of Wuhan virus is worth a look, particularly if you are into genetics.

  50. Atoms for Peace

    Min. I’ve been banging on for politicians to be subject to random alcohol and drug testing before entering the house and the other place.

  51. Geriatric Mayfly

    De Blasio is notoriously socialist!

    Are you being coy B ?

  52. Overburdened

    Contract done and now waiting to get out of here.

    Flights cancelled and re-booked and talk of a milk run if all else fails.

    I have a routine, and I apologise if I have mentioned it before.

    When I get back to camp, I take photo of the beach, go for a swim and then have a fire.

    If it’s warm the fire is small and if it’s cold then a bigger one.

    I sit in front of the fire and throw into it whatever windfall I have collected and other remnants of where I have been; contemplating what I could have done better, what went well and what I learned.

    Then I am home.

    In the meantime I have been blessed with a black swan event of someone who seems to like me, if only by email and text.

    Life is full of surprises.

    I hope she’s into sexting.

    Naturally this sort of thing happens as you’re about to walk out the door.

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