Neither are you, sport

NRL ‘not a law unto themselves’, says Australia’s deputy chief medical officer.

Doubts over the NRL’s intention to restart the competition in May have been highlighted by Australia’s deputy chief medical officer, Paul Kelly, who expressed his concern over the risks of returning to action too soon

Speaking on Friday, Kelly said he did not believe the NRL should be considered “a law unto themselves” and that the league and its players, like the rest of country, have an important role to play in attempts to control the Covid-19 outbreak.

Kelly also said a return to the field of play on 28 May could be too soon given how rapidly the virus can be spread.

“I don’t think they [the NRL] are a law unto themselves,” Kelly said. “Some of the players and coaches may think so, but they’re part of society and they have a part – as we have all done – to support not only safety for themselves but for all of us.

We all have a place in this and if we loosen the social distancing measures at the moment it can have an implication down the track.

 
For the record, Kelly is not part of the “we” he condescendingly mentions. He’s on full pay and travelling well, thank you. He concedes that NRL players – amongst the fittest humans on the planet – are extremely low risk propositions for COVID-19. But that doesn’t stop him persisting with baseless, improvised hysteria:

“For them [the players], it may not be a big problem,” he said. “There are other people around the teams – Wayne Bennett is in his 70s, he would be in a vulnerable group.”

 
Thousands must remain unemployed indefinitely because Wayne Bennett is 70, says science. I’m starting to suspect that by “too soon,” health officials and politicians mean it’s too soon to abandon their utterly insane and, ultimately, pointless destruction of society. It’s too big now to fail.

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70 Responses to Neither are you, sport

  1. struth

    Paul Kelly isn’t a representative in any of our parliaments.
    Our representatives have gone into hiding it seems.
    Mine will not answer calls or emails.
    Has yours?
    If you haven’t attempted to contact your representative at the very least you are part of the apathetic compliant population that deserves all it gets.

  2. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The tecchnocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  3. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The tecchnocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  4. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The tecchnocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  5. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The tecchnocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  6. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The technocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  7. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The technocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  8. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The tecchnocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  9. But, but, but…aren’t footballers role models? So shouldn’t they follow the rules and lead the way on good behavior etc?

  10. Fair Shake

    If we cannot come up with a better solution than economic lockdown for two or more months we don’t deserve to live. We must be the dumbest of all creatures.
    Whose to say in November another virus comes to town. Or in 2021 and again in 2022??
    This may be the new normal.
    We have to find another way …and fast.

  11. Chester Draws

    The end of May is “too son”?

    Do they seriously want to lock down the country for SEVEN more weeks? He’s mad.

    By that time you won’t have a country, so the NRL will be the least of his worries.

  12. Ian of Brisbane

    The tin gods sure do rattle.

  13. Matt

    The measures that Australia has enacted are exactly the reason we aren’t in the midst of a health crisis. Australia currently has about 20 cases per 100,000, Compare that with USA (130), UK (91), Netherlands (120), Germany (130), Spain (314), Switzerland (266) or Italy (230) amongst others. All cause mortality in many European countries is now significantly above the normal range, and USA close to 2000 deaths per day (around 500 per day during their last bad flu season). And we are still not in our peak flu season yet, where things could deteriorate.

    But of course, we should listen to the economics experts, not the health experts. Ha!

  14. Roger

    This may be the new normal.
    We have to find another way …and fast.

    Tackle the problem at its source.

    Declare China a pariah state & close the West’s borders to them.

    That may motivate them to shut down their wet markets.

  15. Kneel

    …who expressed his concern over the risks of returning to action too soon…

    “Apologies, mein Fuhrer – my papers are not in order.” – perhaps we should all answer so if, as and when stopped by police while about our normal business in these times. The response would certainly be… enlightening.

  16. Tim

    I wonder how Paul kelly explains away the 35 Doctors that fled quarantine. Obviously they werent part of the “we”

    There is far to much inconsistency and overreach happening using Covid19 as the excuse.

    Coppers booking or should I say revenue raising people for sitting on a park bench or going for a driving lesson, people in regions locked down when there is no virus there. I wonder how he explains that. Scott morrison will be held to account, as will the premiers. There after all are choosing the advice they takes notice of, much of it simply Bullshit.

    It must be remembered that our medical system is a reactionary system. It addresses health issues after they happen. So advice from this system should be seen in that light. As I have said previously the best solution to the current China virus would be to employ biosecurity measures to prevent its spread and would not have near the costs and economy destroying effects we are currently experiencing

    When it comes to medical advice, I keep thinking “Follow the money” That will tell you the motivation. All the new ventilators (not in use) all the medical staff (some reportedly not in use) You get the message

  17. MACK

    The last few people presenting to a major Sydney hospital with appendicitis all had a burst appendix. They had delayed coming in due to the hysteria and were at risk of getting peritonitis and dying. The head of emergency at the Austin hospital in Melbourne has implored sick people to come in. Paul Kelly is completely oblivious to all the unintended consequences.

  18. Entropy

    Matt
    #3405063, posted on April 11, 2020 at 7:13 am
    The measures that Australia has enacted are exactly the reason we aren’t in the midst of a health crisis. Australia currently has about 20 cases per 100,000, Compare that with USA (130), UK (91), Netherlands (120), Germany (130), Spain (314), Switzerland (266) or Italy (230) amongst others. All cause mortality in many European countries is now significantly above the normal range, and USA close to 2000 deaths per day (around 500 per day during their last bad flu season). And we are still not in our peak flu season yet, where things could deteriorate.

    But of course, we should listen to the economics experts, not the health experts. Ha

    When you say “the measures” do you mean all of them, or just some of them? Which are the ones making the difference, and are there any you regard as just window dressing because the governments feel the need to satisfy the vultures in the media and have a new measure every couple of days?

    And yes, it is entirely possible to end up with a cure that is worse than the disease.

  19. Entropy

    the best solution to the current China virus would be to employ biosecurity measures to prevent its spread and would not have near the costs and economy destroying effects we are currently experiencing

    Quite so. If we only had strict quarantine for citizens returning from OS (including cruise ships) and banned Iran and Europe travel as quickly as we did from China (including the despicable second country trips for firing students to help VCs keep their bonuses) we would have little need for any other measures and many less deaths.

  20. Charles

    I believe the problem is that given the very shallow gene pool our politicians are drawn from has meant that they are no good at thinking for themselves, therefore in this circumstance they have handed over control to these un-elected public service medicos. Now they might find that getting them to give that power back will be somewhat problematic.

    Paul Kelly’s response to the NRL is instructive, to paraphrase: ‘you don’t get to choose what you do, we’ll choose for you’. It is also interesting to see how the goal posts are starting to shift, first it was buying time for our medical resources, now that we have done that in spades it is ‘maybe we want to eradicate or eliminate it’ (a practical impossibility). Always setting new and more vague objectives based on nothing, as long as ensuring we remain in charge of things.

    We are definitely in the territory where the cure is worse than the disease, and if the politicians don’t take back the power that the people have given them, then the people might take that power back themselves the hard way.

  21. Knuckle Dragger

    ‘I’m starting to suspect that by “too soon,” health officials and politicians mean it’s too soon to abandon their utterly insane and, ultimately, pointless destruction of society. It’s too big now to fail.’

    Yup.

    cohenite posted a piece (not his – clarity) on the OOT that speculated in part that after the swine flue eleven years ago our betters in gummint put together a pandemic plan.

    We now have 6204 C19 cases and 54 deaths in a country of 26 million and change. At the same point with swine flu we had 37,537 cases and 191 deaths and nobody shut the country down, and nobody really cared because people were dying of other stuff all the time and the swine numbers, although far greater than C19 numbers, were statistically insignificant.

    But. BUT. The media in 2009 didn’t hold Rudd’s feet to the fire, nor Obama’s. And this time around, having built a pandemic plan, the weenies who conceived it in between meddling in schoolkids’ lunchboxes couldn’t wait to belt that square peg into the round hole that is C19.

  22. Diogenes

    Our representatives have gone into hiding it seems.
    Mine will not answer calls or emails.
    Has yours?
    If you haven’t attempted to contact your representative at the very

    A colleague’s kids run bootcamps at various parks. They have triedto contact all members about NRL restarting. Along the lines off “if we promise to follow the same protocols as the Nrl can we please reopen.

  23. Knuckle Dragger

    ‘The measures that Australia has enacted are exactly the reason we aren’t in the midst of a health crisis.’

    Which ones Matt?

    Getting a haircut? Oh right. Community feedback.
    Washing your work truck? Oh. Fine withdrawn.
    Being taught to drive by somebody who lives with you? Oh. Fine withdrawn.
    Playing golf on your own? Being too far away from home?

    The ones enacted by CHOs around the country, and then either withdrawn or amended, or exemptions included the next day? Those measures?

  24. ryki

    All cause mortality in many European countries is now significantly above the normal range,

    That’s interesting. Now you admit that, before the lockdowns, there wasn’t even any excess deaths above the normal range.

    So we have to conclude that, if anything, it is the lockdowns (and medical treatments) that are killing people not coronavirus.

    By the way, Sweden’s all cause mortality is perfectly normal. Guess what? No lockdown. Sorry. You guys are going to have a very hard time spinning the fact that Sweden, Belarus and several US states never actually locked down and somehow they weren’t all dying on the streets. Take India. Their lockdown is a joke given that they all live on top of each other and yet they have barely any more coronavirus deaths than we do. It is these “control groups” that will ensure every politician in lockdown countries/states faces prison time.

    By the way, it is all academic anyway because we now know from government data on the ratio of positive/negative cases that the disease was never actually spreading in the first place.

  25. Matt

    Entropy – good point. There really haven’t been any new measures for a while now, just reinforcement of existing ones – so not sure I would agree that the basis of restrictions is to ‘feed the media vultures.’
    As to which measures are working – the virus transmission vector is via human contact in various forms, so any of the measures which have essentially minimised human to human contact have helped. Could we relax on some that are too ‘draconian’? Maybe – but that poses two risks. One is that it could increase transmission, the other is that it would signal to people that the measures aren’t needed, and so that might see further increase in transmission. When they are burying people in mass graves in New York with field hospitals set-up in Central Park, currently the disease is worse than the cure.

  26. billie

    to be fair, the chief medical advisor has to be consistent don’t they?

    if you start having exceptions to “the plan”, then it fails

    if the nrl are exceptions, then the afl is and on it goes, next thing we’ll be having the olympics back on

    I’m not fan of the lockdown, but I do see the point of this particular strategy, it does seem though a lot of people are determined to flout the tactics involved to support it

    this man is our ultimate scapegoat of this plan, and clearly he is since all the criticism is of him or people actually listening to him

    what’s the collective noun for more than one princess?

  27. Gilas

    I deal with medical doctors on a daily basis.
    The ones who can’t, won’t, treat patients or do any clinical work, gravitate to administrative jobs in Local Health Districts, State Health Depts, Locum agencies or QUANGOs like MSF, WHO etc..

    In my experience, they are dumb, and I mean stupid, lower IQ material (medical school entry standards have been dropping for decades), incompetent clinically (poor knowledge of actual medicine) and will hide all this with authoritarian, bullying behaviour towards anyone who challenges them.

    This appears to be a normal adjustment in other professions as well; nursing and allied health, for example. That is, there is an absolute tendency, in these parasites, to hide a general incompetence via autocratic overbearing behaviour and over-reach of authority. Thus shutting down opposition and discovery.

    I don’t have the reference, but a study from the 80s showed that psycopaths (people with severe sociopathic personality disorder) tend to be relatively intelligent and naturally gravitate towards high-paying professions, politics or management positions, where they can advance their career on the bodies of their colleagues, the victims.

    Doctors are definitely no exception.

    They also generally have a criminally-poor grasp of statistics, therefore tending to apply the precautionary principle indiscriminately, “..for the good of the patient..” and “..if it can save one life…“, to cover their incompetent arse.

    Thus we see the abuse of evidence and logic we are experiencing today.

  28. MACK

    Worldometer data show Sweden with no bans at 959 cases per 100k population, and Denmark’s Gestapo approach like Australia’s with 1005. Please explain Dr Kelly.

  29. Colin Suttie

    “ All cause mortality in many European countries is now significantly above the normal range“

    That is patently false. The figures are published at euromomo.eu
    Even in Spain and Italy, total mortality is about the same as in the 2017 flu season. Most countries show nothing unusual for the time of year, some have lower than usual mortality.

  30. NoFixedAddress

    Matt
    #3405133, posted on April 11, 2020 at 8:11 am

    Which “Medical” Gang do you work for Matt?

    The New York Potters Field burials is where they bury unidentified bodies. We don’t even know if they are CCP Virus related deaths.

    Tent Hospitals!!!

    The Army has taken down their field hospital in Seattle.

    The Naval Medical ships located to New York and California have fuck all people being treated.

    After we kill all the lawyers we’ll come for the ‘experts’.

  31. bollux

    If all the public service including these health experts took a 50% pay cut, or even better, lost their jobs, this “pandemic” would have been over by now. Is there any information on how many healthy under 70’s have died of the virus yet. It is one statistic nobody will talk about.

  32. Matt

    MACK – look at the death rates
    Sweden – 68 per 1 million population
    Denmark – 38 per 1 million population

  33. Matt

    Colin – countries currently above 2017/18 all cause mortality:
    UK
    Belgium
    France
    Italy
    Netherlands
    Spain
    Switzerland

  34. Matt

    No Fixed Address – presumably that would include all the economics ‘experts’ too?

  35. Gilas

    Matt
    #3405209, posted on April 11, 2020 at 8:44 am

    MACK – look at the death rates
    Sweden – 68 per 1 million population
    Denmark – 38 per 1 million population

    From my reading, no autopsies are carried out on the dead.

    People dying WITH COVID are assumed to have died FROM COVID.

    Viral testing is amazingly inaccurate, due to the new strains and virion sequences, as well as poor population targeting, operator error, political imperatives interfering with an appropriate screening program and reporting, etc…

    Hence, ALL current data on total cases and deaths is not worth wiping one’s perianal area with.

  36. John Brumble

    Matt,
    There have been new restrictions in various states of Australia, both in terms of changes to rules and in terms of constantly-increasing police and health over-reach of existing rules. You have not educated yourself on the facts of the matter.
    Many rules are in contravention of basic human rights. Not made up human rights that are based on feels, but actual human rights. Under those circumstances, using scare quotes for draconian is condescending and paternalistic.
    The curve has flattened. At the very least, we should not increase measures and we absolutely should begin a good faith discussion to remove existing ones. We can work out which existing ones through a process of common sense, starting with any that are no more dangerous than going to the shops. What we should notbe doing is sticking out fingers in our ears and chanting “i have a bear rock, it keeps bears away”.
    Unless we shut down forever. the virus is coming back. It is is a fact of life. We will all get it and we can handle much treater infection rates in Australia than now.
    New York is a very different place to Australia. Much colder, more older people, closer living conditions and a higher instance of flu vaccinations. Most importantly, it held a massive public gathering, supported by the left and specifically included the group of people who were most likely carriers at the time. There is a vast difference between not locking down and dragging the entire population to a party in a COVID ward.

  37. Could we relax on some that are too ‘draconian’? Maybe – but that poses two risks. One is that it could increase transmission, the other is that it would signal to people that the measures aren’t needed, and so that might see further increase in transmission.

    No it won’t.

    Reducing shopping hours by definition decreases social distancing. Putting 1/5th of the workforce out of a job will have terrible, decadal long term physical and mental health effects.

    Governments globally are being duplicitous and muddle huddled.

    We want herd immunity, but we want you in isolation for 18 months.

    This virus is objectively and demonstrably less worse than the Swine Flu.

  38. nfw

    China is open for business so why are we destroying the economy and lives based on the assumptions of “experts” who didn’t see this coming back in December and didn’t do anything then? Time for our politicians to show some real leadership and get the country back to work. Of course the fascists/Stasi/KGB and know-alls (funny how they don’t want to share their data and methodologies isn’t it?) are still being paid and doing okay. They have vested interests, both financial and egotistical, in keeping everybody frightened.

    I still can’t find any record of those commercials telling Chinese not to travel to China in January or if they do so to stay there. Am waiting with baited breath for all the news reports of the NSW SS Services rounding up all those non-NSW persons and sending them back to China a la caravan parks with Australian citizens being sent “home”. Any day now I suspect.

  39. Kneel

    Don’t assume Their ALPBC is an outlier.

    Here’s what US ABC “reported”:

    ” The [November 2019] report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia — forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.

    ‘Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,’ one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. ‘It was then briefed multiple times to’ the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House.


    See, Orange Man Bad! He knew! He covered it up!
    Trump lied, people died.

    Except…
    Here’s the official response:

    “As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters,” the statement read. “However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists.

    Wait – what? You mean the media didn’t check first and just published an unconfirmed story? One with potentially significant political effect. During a pandemic.

    They want to “tell a story” – they’ve said as much.
    Oh, did they forget to mention it was a fairy story? Oops!

  40. Matt

    Agree John that the curve has flattened, but it has done that precisely because of the restrictions in place. I absolutely agree that we should be looking now at where we can relax restrictions, and how to do the whilst monitoring cases with a view to either further relaxing or ramping back up again. I think there is also a good argument for a geographic response – relaxing in areas where there are no/minimal cases of community transmission, but keeping restrictions in hotspots until they are under control.

  41. Matt

    So Gilas – you’re advocating throwing out all the data and just going on the feelz? Right.

  42. The powers that be are not making judgments on the data, Matt.

    They’re not going to remove restrictions in Broken Hill.

    They can’t afford to look stupid now.

  43. Matt

    It’s never stopped them in the past Frank!

  44. Kneel

    “It’s never stopped them in the past”

    Why stop now, when it’s working so well?

  45. yarpos

    “Colin – countries currently above 2017/18 all cause mortality:
    UK
    Belgium
    France
    Italy
    Netherlands
    Spain
    Switzerland”

    Very selective Matt, there are always excess deaths in winter, if you look across more year you will find this peak is at the usual level and it has crested.

  46. Reducing shopping hours by definition decreases social distancing.

    I think that very true. I’ve noticed that with reduced shopping hours, more people are forced into a narrower shopping time frame and hence shops tend to have more people congregating at the one time. Expanded shopping hours would likely have the reverse effect.

  47. ryki

    Sweden – 68 per 1 million population
    Denmark – 38 per 1 million population

    Wow! Look at the astonishing arse covering going on. That is a trivial difference considering the enormous economic costs borne by the Danish. Not to mention that lots of lockeddown countries have much higher deaths per million than Sweden. Not to mention that Sweden’s overall death rates are low.

    By the way, as I and others have said, all the data is suspect, but if we are going to use official data then the correct data for the purposes of determining if the lockdowns worked is cases per million.

    And are you going to respond to the fact that according to the data in these countries supposedly ravaged by the virus, the disease isn’t even spreading?

  48. Gilas

    Matt
    #3405238, posted on April 11, 2020 at 9:01 am

    So Gilas – you’re advocating throwing out all the data and just going on the feelz? Right.

    Where did I say that?

    GIGO: garbage in, garbage out.

    The dodgy-as-fuck data published to date is used as justification for the draconian public order restriction policies in the West.
    If you see no problems with that… enjoy the loss of your rights.
    You deserve it.

  49. flyingduk

    But of course, we should listen to the economics experts, not the health experts. Ha!

    No general wins a war by listening only to his doctors, he wins by balancing the views of all departments, but above all of logistics: the fastest way to lose in battle is to lose your supply lines, not a few soldiers.

  50. Bad Samaritan

    Matt (7.13am) and all others claiming that the measures taken were “necessary”, and that they’ve “worked’.

    When betting on anything and everything I assess it all dispassionately. I have skin in every game I bet on, which means that if i’m wrong I take an immediate hit. Thus…I must be right almost all the time to get my pay…unlike polies and pundits; bureaucrats and bloviators…..

    How I see CV: Tens of thousands of infected Chinese arrived from a cold country into another cold country, and landed in one hit amidst a huge population of old and feeble folk. From there the virus spread to various other cold countries by road and rail in addition to some few flights and almost no boats.

    Key factors; large initial infection,cold weather, road+rail links. This equals a huge bet on Oz not being hit at all, as i stated many many times.

    To verify my hypothesis had legs I looked at many many other warm to hot countries, and have found not one with a serious problem…regardless of affluence and ramshackle health systems etc. Increase the bet!

    Then looked at colder countries with no open road or rail borders; Taiwan, Japan, Singapore (to a great degree), Sth Korea. Hardly touched, Increase bet size again…

    Double check on tourism. Loads of tourists to all of North Africa and middle East and many other warmer places (Greece!, Sth Italy/Sicily , Malta), Sth America….but no huge infection rate. bet even bigger.

    final result: my hypothesis that warm countries are not affected is ‘proven’. no BS about Oz to be hit will be accepted. A hot (not just warm) land, no 100,000 infected arriving in a week; an island. = no chance of a mass-death event, Bet on it!

  51. littledozer

    Worldometer data show Sweden with no bans at 959 cases per 100k population, and Denmark’s Gestapo approach like Australia’s with 1005. Please explain Dr Kelly.

    Denmark are performing twice as many tests per million than Sweden.

  52. Tim Neilson

    “Colin – countries currently above 2017/18 all cause mortality:
    UK
    Belgium
    France
    Italy
    Netherlands
    Spain
    Switzerland”

    Matt, this is meaningless.

    Every flu season you’d expect there to be some countries with above their normal rate and others below. That’s just normal statistical variability. 7 out of how many countries in Europe are above average? Come on. Even if it were shown that there are none at present below average this is hardly the Black Death.

    So going “OH MY GOD THERE ARE COUNTRIES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DEATH RATES WE’LL ALL DIE IF WE DON’T HIDE UNDER OUR BEDS” is just nonsense.

    And look at your own figures. For example 68 deaths per million of population is of course tragic for those involved, but not greatly tragic in the case of very elderly with underlying morbidities anyway. If we look only at deaths that would otherwise be unexpected is there really a cause for “OH MY GOD WE’LL ALL DIE IF WE DON’T HIDE UNDER OUR BEDS”?

  53. Gerard

    Once things start getting back to normal he loses his power!

  54. Tom

    This is now about nothing else but power: cocooned, highly paid government “experts” versus democracy. The “experts” will not tolerate their shutdown of the Australian economy being challenged by politicians – and the politicians are too weak to challenge the power trip by the technocracy.

    Australia will never recover from this. The tecchnocrats won, the Australian democracy is meaningless and the Australian economy is a backwater overrun by the Chinese Communist Party that serious money won’t touch with a barge pole.

    The Australian economy can’t grow when government technocrats have a veto over it. And they will not relinquish their new-found power.

  55. Tom

    This is now about nothing but raw political power: government “experts”, who have politicians in their thrall, versus the rest.

    The end of the police-enforced shutdown of the Australian economy is the end of the power of the government “experts”, whose models about Kung Flu have been hopelessly wrong and alarmist – just like the global warming models. What a coincidence!

    Because he has never had a real job, Morrison is their captive. Kelly and his gang think they can ride him into the sunset as the unelected kings of Australia.

  56. Matt

    Tim/Yarpos – that’s above flu season peaks, not just total year average.
    Bad Samaritan – no doubt seasonality is a major factor in the difference between northern and southern hemispheres. I would disagree with your assumption that there were tens of thousands of infected people arriving in other countries – at a time when the case rate was much lower than that (even allowing for a large number of asymptomatic cases). We are now moving into cold weather here, albeit with our borders shut to minimise further importing of cases. The question really then is what will happen with local community transmission if spatial distancing is relaxed with a virus that is at least twice as infective as flu?
    Ryki – so nearly double the death rate is trivial?

  57. shatterzzz

    On the bright side this social distancing has had one noticeable effect .. as a cyclist who’s been riding the local bike tracks for over quarter of a century and before Bat Flu and its, forced, restrictions would average being able to count on one hand the number of folk I’d see on any given day .. now between 50 & 100, riding tho mostly walking is becoming typical sooooo seems Bat Flu is getting more people into the habit of exercising LOL!

  58. Bad Samaritan

    Matt. Nope…it’s not seasonality per se. It’s warmth and distance from the epicentre and natural isolation. Knowing this you’d expect the dozens of “experts” in Oz health bureaucracies to know it too. Egypt is very good example….about 100 million people and only 130 deaths.

    Egypt had about 14 million overseas visitors in 2019…“the best time to visit Egypt is during the northern hemisphere fall, winter or early spring (October to April), when temperatures are lower. To avoid the crowds at ancient sites like the Pyramids of Giza, Luxor, and Abu Simbel, try to avoid peak season (December and January). At this time of year, accommodation and tours throughout the country are typically more expensive.

    Got it now. The multiple millions were there from about December to about March….including

    “Nearly half a million Chinese tourists visited Egypt in 2018 compared with only 300,000 in 2017, which is a big leap,” says Shi. And he expects the number of Chinese visitors to exceed 800,000 in 2019.”

    Our health idiots over-egged the entire fiasco.

  59. Colin Suttie

    Matt

    So you’ve changed the criteria from “significantly above” to “above”. Does a slight blip in total mortality in some specific situations justify the shutting down of society?

  60. Tim Neilson

    Tim/Yarpos – that’s above flu season peaks, not just total year average.

    My point still holds. Statistical variability means that there’d be expected to be some countries worse than normal on any stat including “flu season peaks”, so why is 7 countries in Europe above normal for that stat a cause for panic?

  61. ryki

    Ryki – so nearly double the death rate is trivial?

    Listen. I realise you’re desperate here to rationalize being conned but that’s what you were.

    You’re concentrating on the numerator and ignoring the all important denominator.

    This is, supposedly, a world wide pandemic bound to kill large swathes of humanity.

    Yet, even if we accept deaths attributed to COVID are actually caused by COVID, then it’s killing less than 1 in 10,000 people. Not even a blip. And total death rates in Sweden are perfectly normal so clearly this is just people dying of normal things being labelled as COVID.

    And why do you keep ignoring my point about positive/negative ratios remaining constant?

  62. Matt

    Yep, you’re all right – nothing to see here. Just the normal flu.
    Carry on.

  63. C.L.

    Not a normal flu.
    A slightly more serious flu with a CFR of about 0.37 percent.
    Some years, 650,000 people die of the “normal flu.”

    Explain to us, Matt, why we don’t shut down in those years.

  64. ryki

    Yep, you’re all right – nothing to see here. Just the normal flu

    Answer my question.

    If the disease was spreading why did the ratio of positive/negative cases not increase over time?

  65. Infidel Tiger King

    We are reeling from the effects of the boomers being in charge.

    Now that most have retired, shutting down the economy and destroying the future of the youth appeals to them.

    They are also a generation shirkers, leaners and cowards, so are terrified the Bat Flu Virus will take them out and don’t give a damn what they have to do to protect their soft selves.

  66. Tom

    Sorry about all the repeat postings in this thread. The Cat swallowed numerous posts, then spewed them out after a random billious interlude. Top software.

  67. NoFixedAddress

    Matt
    #3405217, posted on April 11, 2020 at 8:48 am

    No Fixed Address – presumably that would include all the economics ‘experts’ too?

    Only those named Ross Garnaut or Ken Henry.

  68. John A

    Matt #3405236, posted on April 11, 2020, at 9:00 am

    Agree, John that the curve has flattened, but it has done that precisely because of the restrictions in place. I absolutely agree that we should be looking now at where we can relax restrictions, and how to do the whilst monitoring cases with a view to either further relaxing or ramping back up again. I think there is also a good argument for a geographic response – relaxing in areas where there are no/minimal cases of community transmission, but keeping restrictions in hotspots until they are under control.

    Which restrictions have been the effective ones?

    Can we revert to some of the earlier restrictions like a maximum of 50 (or was it 100) people in a public venue? What about physical distancing of 1m instead of 2m? Re-open public places such as sit-down fast-food premises and restaurants, theatres, libraries, government buildings, sports venues, clubs?

    Can most of Australia PLEASE return to work? As others have commented, restricted shopping hours has meant more people gathering together in less time and space. If hours were extended as previously, would that lessen the crowding?

    Can we get the health system back towards normal non-emergency operation, including surgery operations, dental work, obstetrics, GPs and so on? Can the effective medicines (quinine and I forget the other name) be distributed beyond the front line medical people to those already infected? Can we figure out some moderate measures to test at-risk people and quarantine only the absolutely necessary ones?

    If the asymptomatic carriers are, by definition, not coughing and sneezing, how are they managing to transmit the infection? And if the disease is not transmitted, how will we others develop the requisite herd immunity? The present restrictions are internally contradictory and yield quite a few unintended consequences.

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