Frauds and conmen

We are dealing with totalitarian mentalities which must always lurk behind everyone who runs for political office. They want not just to manage our affairs, but to run our lives. There is no longer anything to worry about, and the data are even more stark by the day. But was in an argument this afternoon – online of course – over the data. In the end, I went looking for the numbers, and this is what I found.

This was published by the ABC in Feb 2020 so “last year” in the story refers to 2019. Flu season which struck down 310,000 Australians ‘worst on record’ due to early outbreaks. The final lines:

“While 2019 saw the highest number of influenza cases across the country, 2017 still holds the record for the highest number of flu-related deaths, with over 1,100 cases.”

Last year there were over 900 influenza linked deaths in Australia.

And then there was this from the ABS, not the ABC this time.

Australia’s leading causes of death, 2018

Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18)

Number: 3102
Median age: 89.3 

The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.

We are in the midst of a gigantic fraud and a burst of the most disgusting hysteria. We are not led by leaders but by hysterics and conmen who love power and love to tell everyone else what to do. They have no business being leaders in a free society. First they do everything they can to scare as many people as possible and then invent a near-on-totalitarian system to protect us from what is turning out to be for virtually all of us virtually nothing at all.

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130 Responses to Frauds and conmen

  1. Snoopy

    Speaking of which.

    Hundreds of economists have cautioned the Morrison Government against relaxing social distancing measures too early, warning such a move could cause unnecessary loss of life and impede Australia’s economic recovery.

    The open letter — released Monday — has more than 200 signatures and growing, including current Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper, former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin, former Treasury and RBA officials, and prominent academic economists.

  2. Robber Baron

    Well said Steve.

    Now let’s gather and protest. Oops. No we can’t.

    Let’s get on twitter and facebook and spread the word. Oops. Shadow bans and deleted posts mysteriously happen.

    Looks like we just need to accept life in the gulag.

  3. Tel

    Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18)

    Number: 3102
    Median age: 89.3

    What I keep reminding people, is that the bulk of those numbers from J09 to J18 are all sitting in J18 (about 90% from memory). When you look closely J18, is the category for people who never got tested for anything. Almost every year we never tested and we never even bothered to figure out what did kill those people. No one cared at all before … but this year we freaked right out over one particular disease. Does that make any sense whatsoever?

    Past years: thousands of people dead and couldn’t give a rats arse even figuring out why.
    This year: hundreds of thousands of tests for one specific disease while all other diseases get put on hold (and indeed the entire economy also gets put on hold).

    There’s just no sense of perspective here.

  4. Riiight…but shutting down the economy and having a 25% unemployment rate after we had a 5% unemployment rate recovered us from what?

    Prosperity?

  5. Leo G

    The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.
    We are in the midst of a gigantic fraud and a burst of the most disgusting hysteria.

    I would describe it as a gigantic over-reaction, driven by unreliable information about the virus, and not a fraud.
    There are reasons for the low death rates in Australia. Our relative isolation, the time of year, the early regulatory actions by the Australian government, and the behaviour of CoViD-19- the risk of serious illness or death dramatically increases with age for those older than 50 years, an apparent variable dose threshold, and indications of widespread innate resistance to infection.
    But most importantly, some of the regulatory actions were well-timed and effective, in that they allowed the hospital system to provide a much higher standard of care for a smaller number of serious cases than in the systems of many states elsewhere around the world.

  6. Brian

    Does anyone have figures on how many went on respirators and then recovered versus died?

  7. Shaun

    I have been showing these figures to people I know for the last month. They will argue with me how bad this virus even when I show them the piddly 70 deaths from covid side by side to flu deaths. They will then try and rationalise by arguing how contagious Covid is and then I show them the figures of flu cases in the hundreds of thousands. Yet they don’t want to believe in their own mind that the govt is lying to them and creating hysteria for something that has been happening previously and no one cared or batted an eyelid and thought we needed to do something to stop it. There has been 37 road fatalities in SA this year making it 10x more deaths than Covid, yet noone thinks about not driving anywhere. Time for people to take back control from the puppetmasrers. Lords and peasants.

  8. MarcH

    Week stated Steve. Such a fraud, and so many caught in its headlights.

  9. Wayne From Perth

    Open letters have a history of being wrong. If I was Morrison I would do the opposite of whatever it recommends.

  10. Professor Fred Lenin

    The solution is to contact your local M.P,s and threaten their miserable little careers by not voting for them next election,that will stir the possum,expect immediate action . Dragging a polliemaggot from the public through is almost capital punishment .( probably be banned by the WHO ,IMF and Untidy Nayshins .

  11. Anthony

    The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.

    Because people aren’t being infected. The Case Fatality Rate is over 1%, no one knows the true infection fatality rate. The fact is 1000 cases can become 1 million in a month and 15 million a few weeks after that. Potentially, you have a couple hundred thousand people simultaneously needing the ICU, and many people dying for lack of an anti-inflammatory or a bit of oxygen. An unknown number may well have permanent lung or heart damage that was easily preventable.

    If people are being turned away from hospitals, regular people will not frequent bars, cafes or other establishments. They will be afraid to go to work. The economy would still enter a recession and a nice big chunk of human capital will have been wiped out.

    How do you not get this?

  12. Beachcomber

    The fortunate citizens of WA give applause to Dear Leader Kim Il McGowan. They are grateful for the Dear Leader’s inspired leadership which has saved them from a horrible viral death. Under the watchful lenses of the ABC cameras, the clapping continued for a long time because no one wanted to be seen to the first to stop.

  13. Leo G

    The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.

    The Critical Community Size is defined as the total population size of susceptible and infected individuals, needed to sustain an outbreak. When we lock down the most susceptible to infection, the CCS increases, hopefully beyond the capacity of the virus to maintain reproduction numbers. We also reduce the Case Fatality Rate.
    Is there really any justification for lockdown of those aged under 50 years with no high-risk CV-19 co-morbidities?

  14. Chris M

    About six months ago US medical media reported that the annual flu vaccine in Australia was shown to be only 10% effective last season. I’m not anti-vax but the efficacy is quite an important factor to say the least. Never seen this reported in the AU media.

  15. Hay Stockard

    Our masters and betters aren’t much younger than me. They can afford a recession without it impacting much on them and theirs. They are shitting themselves much as our resident Marxists on here. They want to live forever.
    A coward dies a thousand deaths, a brave man just the one.
    They disgust me. I pity the fools. Jumping at shadows, too lazy to work and too frightened to steal. Not just deadwood, veritable sea anchors on the path to a properly civil and well ordered society. Arseholes and maggots the lot of them.

  16. C.L.

    Well said, indeed.
    This is one of the biggest episodes of mass hysteria and fraud in world history.

  17. Megan

    The fact is 1000 cases can become 1 million in a month and 15 million a few weeks after that. 

    This is the kind of unprovable, bedwetting, hysterical nonsense that has brought us to our economic knees. Prove it, or shut up.

  18. We have a national database that could be used as a test bed to estimate the risk of returning to work while observing precautions. Thousands of supermarket workers across the country in every size city and town are having daily contact with millions of the public. Any of those supermarket staff who became infected would be recorded as staff on sick leave. What proportion have become infected. Dig stats out of the staff data of a few national supermarket chains.
    .
    We get fed sensationalised news about holiday ocean liners. Why is there nothing about the setuation in real world ordinary daily work-sites?

  19. JC

    CL

    I really don’t think it’s a fraud. At the outset, we really had no idea how bad the China Bug really was. Governments are/were under supreme pressure to0 listen to the expertologists. The expertologists weren’t wrong to make their models public and suggest concern. They also had no idea too.

    But, here’s the thing, after this time no punter will ever give credit to a model…. except if its a Victoria’s secret model.

  20. JC

    This is the kind of unprovable, bedwetting, hysterical nonsense that has brought us to our economic knees. Prove it, or shut up.

    Megan, it’s seems to be well understood the china bug is hugely infectious and as someone described it here recently – an intense form of flu.

    Only yesterday, Zippy was suggesting the infection rate has been estimated to be as high as 5.7. It could even be that high.

  21. BorisG

    We do have very few deaths which do look disproportionate to the severe shutdown measure, but the measures are here to prevent much bigger numbers. You can look at Europe and America and see what might have been, but that is not the whole story for these numbers would have been much higher still if these countries weren’t in very severe lockdowns.

    Because our government acted smart and early, we not only avoided tens of thousands of deaths, we also avoided much tougher lockdowns, which would be inevitable once deaths reached into thousands.

  22. JC

    And this bug is inexplicable. We just don’t understand it. oldies in Italy are falling over like ten pins. New Yorkers are too. Then hardly anyone is dead in Australia. 50% of people testing positive don’t know they even have it. Meanwhile others are falling dead in the street. Like WTF?

    Someone recently suggested the problem may be elevators. Like, really?

  23. BorisG

    JC I still think the infection rate is no more than 3. Enough to infect every person in the country if we don’t take serious measures.

    Just for reference, the flu infection rate is much lower, and still infects 10% of the population, even with a vaccine. That’s a lot.

  24. BorisG

    JC i think NY just has many more infections than Australia. I think the fatality rate is not very different. But that is just my opinion.

  25. JC

    JC I still think the infection rate is no more than 3.

    That’s also really high, Boris. However, if the infection rate is 3%, where would that take the fatality rate?

  26. BorisG

    The problem with NYC is that you can’t really enforce social distancing in south Bronx. Or in j e wi sh parts of Brooklyn.

  27. BorisG

    I think fatality rate is about 1% give or take. Maybe a bit lower.

  28. JC

    JC i think NY just has many more infections than Australia. I think the fatality rate is not very different. But that is just my opinion.

    If 15% of the population has or had it, then that means close to a million fuckers would test positive. With 10,000 deaths, it means a fatality rate of 1%. Then string this along through the age categories and you end up with a flu for those under 45.

  29. egg_

    Does anyone have figures on how many went on respirators and then recovered versus died?

    IIRC some info from the US was that only about one third recover after being put on a ventilator – a virtual death sentence.

  30. egg_

    6 posts from the troll with mates on the ground in Wuhan.

  31. JC

    IIRC some info from the US was that only about one third recover after being put on a ventilator – a virtual death sentence.

    I hate it when odds begin to shift like that. Just think.. you get the China bug and you think… Oh, it’s very likely to be okay because I have a 99%- 95% survival score. You slowly get short of breath, show up at the hospital and the doc says you need to go on a respirator asap. From no biggie odds, you end up with 67& chance of making it through the ventilator. Fuckkk me.

  32. Beachcomber

    Yes, it’s a fraud promoted by hysteria mongers like BorisG et. al.

    The world is suffering from a massive delusion based on the belief that a test for RNA is a test for a deadly new virus


    As for the “plague” in NYC

    Everybody Now Dies Of Coronavirus

    If they’re going to say everybody who dies does so of coronavirus, well, it will be one way to bring the reported counts in line with model projections. They can then say the models were right, and that our well designed PANIC! PANIC! PANIC! strategy was fully justified.

  33. Beachcomber

    ……. the ventilator. Fuckkk me.

    It’s scary. If you show up with a fever and a cough, they will rush you into one of the many empty ICUs which they need to fill up. Then the intensive and unnecessary treatments, i.e. the toxic anti-viral drugs, excessive or invasive ventilation etc., may well kill you.

    Doctors faced with what they believe is a deadly virus treat for the future, for anticipated symptoms, ……… After the SARS panic had subsided doctors reviewed the evidence, and it showed that these treatments were often ineffective, and all had serious side effects, such as persistent neurologic deficit, joint replacements, scarring, pain and liver disease. AS WELL AS HIGHER MORTALITY.

  34. ryki

    Megan, it’s seems to be well understood the china bug is hugely infectious

    It’s not understood it’s just believed.

    We believe the virus to be “novel”. But it’s not and only a lunatic would accept such a thing.

    But it was that assumption that underpinned our predictions of its spread (it never did) and its pathogenicity (it’s harmless).

  35. BorisG

    Cranks here will tell you all numbers are fake. It is all fraud until your loved ones get this virus.

    One of my best friends in Moscow expressed this view just two weeks ago. hysteria and all that. Now he is trying to shake off this virus in a Moscow hospital. He is ok but they found new pneumonia clusters. His wife is worse.

    The real rate in russia is probably far greater than official reporting.

  36. BorisG

    Ryki is an idiot anti vaccer who continues to promote theories that this virus does not exist, contrary to all scientific evidence. And he is also a sock puppet.

  37. Megan

    I didn’t argue it wasn’t infectious. I took exception to Anthony’s line that you can get from 1000 to 15 million in a matter of weeks. There have been roughly 2.4 million cases world wide to date and 69k or so deaths. Putting big guessworked numbers in sentences is what has fuelled the hysterical response. I was simply advocating for good data as evidence, not numbers that fell off the back of a truck.

  38. Hoogan

    I’m more concerned with the idea that a government bureaucrat or politician gets to decide which job can or cannot be considered “essential.” Where did they get these special powers of insight to proclaim such definitions around individual occupations?
    Further, how “essential” is a Federal government which is incapable of keeping a supposed plague from an island nation and then when it arrives responds by wrecking the economy?

  39. ryki

    contrary to all scientific evidence

    You do understand that “my mate in Moscow is absolutely sure he has it” isnt evidence don’t you?

    Now, where is any of this “scientific evidence”? It should be easy to find. How was this virus proven to cause death in anybody? And remember, as you vaccine lovers always love saying, correlation isn’t causation.

  40. David

    Maybe people need to take note of the median age of those dying of influenza and pneumonia: 89.3 years; i.e. people who have come to the end of life.

    The fact is that no restrictions have been placed on people’s lives in order to reduce deaths due to influenza and pneumonia.

    The weakness in Steve’s argument is the lives saved by the restrictions placed upon us to stop the spread of Covid 19 – that’s why we can now talk less than 70 lives lost and not a loss of lives running into many thousands.

  41. ryki

    The weakness in Steve’s argument is the lives saved by the restrictions placed upon us to stop the spread of Covid 19

    Bear patrol!

  42. ryki

    David, I hate to break this to you but the virus wasn’t spreading at any stage in any country.

  43. Anne

    Wouldn’t you need to shut down the world to shift from the Central Banking Fiat Currency System to NESARA / GESARA?

    Also Oil fell to $0.01 barrel overnight. That’s interesting.

  44. 2018 was considered Spains worst Flue Season 472 deaths coronavirus so far 20852 deaths , so I think had we not dodged the bullet our death toll would be a lot higher. the figures are over 20ooo more for Spain then Flu If I can find this out why cant you lot find it out and perhaps be a bit more measured, I am over 70 do not fear the virus but would not want to be unable to attend the many funerals of friends or ex work colleagues who might have died had not Australia had a limited lockdown

  45. Up The Workers!

    Ahh…the annual flu vaccination…charity for the medical profession.

    Those luddites who refuse to get the annual flu-jab, stand the frightening risk of possibly getting the flu for 7 whole consecutive days.

    Those who comply with the health nannies and get the jab, will only suffer the flu for one solitary week – but their medico will have a bright, shiny new Beemer next year!

    Beemers, unfortunately, are not contagious amongst the taxpaying peasantry, but are endemic in the medical profession.

  46. A Lurker

    Playing Devil’s Advocate – I wonder what the fatalities for Covid-19 would have been in Australia without social distancing? Would they have mirrored the numbers for recent years for flu and pneumonia, or would the numbers have been in the tens or hundreds of thousands? I guess we’ll never know if the economic and social price that we paid was good value or not.

  47. Anne

    Central Banking – Privately owned by the Rothschild Cartel & Global debt slavery.

    OR

    NESARA
    National Economic Security and Reformation Act.

    Provides major benefits to Americans in the world

    Forgives credit card, mortgage, and other bank debt due to illegal banking and government activities

    Abolishes income tax

    Abolishes IRS; creates flat rate non-essential “new items only” sales tax revenue for government.

    Increases benefits to senior citizens

    Returns constitutional law.

    Establishes new Presidential and Congressional elections within 120 days after NESARA’s announcement.

    Monitors elections and prevents illegal election activities of special interest groups.

    Creates new US currency, “rainbow currency” backed by gold, silver and platinum precious metals.

    Returns constitutional law to all courts and legal matters.

    Initiates new US Treasury bank system in alignment with constitutional law

    Eliminates the Federal Reserve System!!!

    Restores financial privacy.

    Retains all judges and attorneys in constitutional law.

    Ceases all aggressive US government military actions worldwide.

    Establishes peace throughout the world

    Initiates first phase of worldwide prosperity distribution of vast wealth which has been accumulating for many decades

    Releases enormous sums of money for humanitarian purposes.

    Enables the release of new technologies such as alternative energy devices.

  48. mem

    [email protected]
    #3421714, posted on April 21, 2020 at 12:16 am
    We have a national database that could be used as a test bed to estimate the risk of returning to work while observing precautions. Thousands of supermarket workers across the country in every size city and town are having daily contact with millions of the public. Any of those supermarket staff who became infected would be recorded as staff on sick leave. What proportion have become infected. Dig stats out of the staff data of a few national supermarket chains.

    I like the way you think.

  49. Iampeter

    We are dealing with totalitarian mentalities which must always lurk behind everyone who runs for political office.

    Except Trump apparently, even though his administration is the architect of the most left wing overreaction to this.

    We are not led by leaders but by hysterics and conmen who love power and love to tell everyone else what to do.

    Yea and if you’re a Trump supporter then you should be loving this.

  50. Lurks

    All these folk falling down in the streets…..and the carts are going past with signs saying bring out your dead… holy dooly get real.

    A sudden spike in extra deaths means that the last rights administrators are over worked, the crematorium numbers are up and the grave diggers are increasing overtime….. or …some alien is stealing the bodies.

    Using the Ockhams razor principle; how does the current final crop of flu season fatalities compare to previous seasons. The proof will be with the numbers from the above bodies not from health authorities well versed in subsidy gathering…. and I think we can dispense with any alien pick ups

  51. Anne

    Very interesting tweet by Tom Fitton (Judicial Watch) of Moses demanding Pharoah let his people go.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tomfitton/status/1252238509764677632

    Join the dots, people.

    The Fed is dead and the World is changing.

  52. IainC

    With no change in policy, I can (not entirely tongue in cheek) foresee:
    Deaths from current virus outbreak in Australia – 250 (each case explored in minute detail)
    Deaths from upcoming flu season – 2500 (limited coverage)
    Early deaths from years-long depression caused by current virus panic – 25000 (no coverage whatsoever)

    Australia had no choice but to do what it did, considering the unknowns and the global response. Now it does know a lot more, and can make a balanced decision for Australia. On balance, let’s go back to work.

  53. ryki

    Australia had no choice but to do what it did, considering the unknowns and the global response

    What unknowns?

    I knew every step of the way that the whole thing was an impossible lie. Just because your trust in the medical paradigm leads you into a perpetual state of confusion, doesn’t mean that it is impossible to understand what is actually going on.

  54. Tel

    Anne #3421848,

    Sounds a lot like a Santa Claus wish list. Might be all nice things but the chances of one big act of government doing all that is zero.

    Under the current situation more likely we lose the last little bit of freedom we still have left … that has been the general trend lately.

  55. Perfidious Albino

    We should require that each of those petitioning economists include their age beside their name when signing, just for context…

  56. The Beer Whisperer

    I said at the start that an onerous shutdown will be used to excuse the inevitable low death count. How many people died from other people playing golf? Surely if it were causing deaths, comparisons could be made between places where golf was banned and places that weren’t?

    The mother of all precedents has been set. It demonstrates the damage that can be done with a bio-engineered virus, even if the Kung Flu wasn’t. It emboldens foreign malice, and even domestic malice. Even the flu can be used to justify future shutdowns or other action. The fact that the left insist covid-19 is not the flu is immaterial. Every insistence can easily be thrown into the memory hole, and a new narrative made as though it was always the case. After all, we’ve always been at war with East Asia.

    The left has created another front, which is fine by them because they live politics 24/7, but we can save time by assuming they’re lying whenever they speak.

  57. ryki

    No PA we should just cut all funding to their respective universities. If and when the unis sack those idiots then they can have half of their funding back.

    Also make it illegal for anybody else to hire these economists until after the “emergency” is over.

  58. Charles

    It is my understanding that the fatality rate of this virus will vary from country to country depending on the conditions. There seems to be 3 things which dictate the extent of the epidemic which are:

    Population density
    Mass transit schemes, and,
    Climate/Environment

    In places like NY, Italy, UK, etc. the population density is high, there are mass transit schemes in place and the climate is cool with low humidity, which seems to make the virus more virulent. When these conditions are in place those who become infected tend to get massive viral dose loads of a highly virulent agent which can overwhelm even healthy auto-immune systems which is why you see deaths extend beyond the aged and infirm.

    In Australia, it is likely we are still getting a similar rate of infection as many other countries, it is just that it is not particularly virulent here and most people get infected possibly without ever knowing it. Low population density, no mass transit schemes on the same scale as the Northern Hemisphere and a warmer higher humidity climate as well. Abundant sunshine (UV light) not only prevents the transfer of airborne viral particles exhaled by infected people, but it also boosts auto-immune systems to fight off the bug.

    These I think are the reasons why there is such a disparity between Australia and other countries, and almost nothing to do with how the authorities have acted here in Australia. Consequently, apart from shutting our borders all these other restrictions have done is force us indoors where the virus has a much more favourable environment for itself, and so the outcome really is that it has made us more vulnerable to the virus as opposed to protecting us from it.

  59. MACK

    The Doherty data analysis released at Easter showed everything was under control in early March, before the shutdown. James McCaw put it on Twitter:”Our estimates for the effective reproduction number in Australian states. Good news is we have clear evidence that it is (well) under 1″
    https://twitter.com/j_mccaw/status/1249592269977423879

    This will be the recession Australia didn’t have to have.

  60. ryki

    The mother of all precedents has been set.

    Yep. The only way out is to change the rules surrounding the ability of governments to declare emergencies.

    For example, all politicians and senior public servants in the relevant agencies should forfeit all their pay for the time that the emergency is declared. At the end, the public can vote on whether they should get backpay (if the public agreed that the emergency was real and the response acceptable).

    Whenever civil liberties are denied as a result of the emergency there is a “you first times five” principle. So if the Premier locks down his state for a month, then the Premier and senior public servants in the relevant agencies cannot venture outside for 5 months. If they deem it necessary to force medical treatments on anybody, then they themselves can have five lots of that treatment. And so on.

  61. yarpos

    Our leaders know the numbers they track and display are embarrassing. They know some people can think and talk , and the sheeple hear this stuff. That is the reason for yesterdays charm offences to talk about the unprecedented horror apocalypse they have saved us from.

    Meanwhile hospitals and ICUs are empty, the economy trashed and Sweden rolls on with the same numbers as the rest of Europe ( which is experiencing about the same mortality levels as a flu season)

    Control freakery gone mad or perhaps the worst use of the precautionary principle ever

  62. nfw

    Yes, I too have been saying this for weeks. However, as I also say the cowards and totalitarians have backed themselves into a corner. They know it’s a giant con but are frightened to “release” us because there will be a spike in Wuhan Virus Flu cases due to us not having interacted as we normally do. The longer they hold us the worse the spike will be. Its almost as if frightened teenage children are whispering into politician ears. No, that couldn’t be could it?

  63. Bad Samaritan

    “The straw that broke the camel’s back” , which I’ve heard a thousand times, means that though a superficial and juvenile reading of an event might point to the last straw having done the breaking all on it’s own….that in fact almost anything could’ve been “the final straw”; the idea being that the 10,000 straws accumulated prior to the last one were had so weakened the camel that maybe even a passing bird shyte would’ve been enough….or a feather from that bird….or a gust of wind…or a drop of rain. It was time for that back to break!

    And everybody knows what the expression alludes to, so what is the big deal with aged disease-ridden. disease-riddled older folk finally dying when the accumulated burdens of age eventually knock them out?

    It really has me beat why anybody, especially a “front-line” doctor, nurse, ambo etc etc who sees hundreds, maybe thousands of people dying would bother even pretending that long drawn out death throes finally ending is something to write home about. When my grandparents died, and then my parents they were all “age-related” deaths. What person has not seen this many times already? What is this crap all about?

    BTW: Spanish Flu with it’s masses of young and otherwise healthy people dying suddenly is a whole other ball-game; a real tragedy indeed.

  64. LBLoveday

    JC wrote: “We just don’t understand it. oldies in Italy are falling over like ten pins. New Yorkers are too”.
    .
    Apart from all else, it’s colder in NYC at this time of the year than in Oz, and the last few months have been very much colder. Australia’s flu season is centred on mid-year, NYC’s on start-of-year.

  65. Struth

    It’s as if nobody died before this virus came along.

    Sad that you are all still focused on it.
    Just what they want.
    Here’s some facts that cannot be disputed.

    Colds are highly contagious.
    Corona virus is a cold virus.

    When you catch a cold, you don’t die, unless it develops into something worse and you have one foot in the grave already.

    Millions of people are born and die everyday world wide.
    Hardly any are given an autopsy.
    Cause of death is often a guess and as many deaths occur without medical professionals nearby, the CoD is often quoted simply from what the witness to the death may have seen, or even just physical attributes (fat old guy found dead…heart attack)

    NY have in place a 15% funding hike if patient dies of corona virus.
    Italy was looking for funding from the EU and were owned through belt and road by the Chinese.
    In other words, if you trust these figures while overall deaths compared to last year have not changed, you might not be looking at the big picture.

    Italy has had no more overall deaths than it had last year.

    Now the reason we have been doing alright is precisely because we are coming out of summer and have spread out populations that suffered a really bad flu season last year.

    We therefore, are not being freed by our new world masters because we are going to be the new Italy in a month or two, to scare the world some more.
    We are being set up for it.
    If you get finished off by a flu, pneumonia, or common cold when you had one foot in the grave anyway, or this new “cold” it will all be recorded as CoD corona virus, as has happened elsewhere.

    We have no deaths and hardly any new cases.
    You could go out and tongue pash everyone you meet and the likely hood of catching it would be next to zero.
    Yet we remain imprisoned in a police state, quietly waiting to be the next propaganda fear mongering case.

    I wish there really was global warming, that would stuff their flu season plans.

    Can we forget this virus.
    This virus is now hope for some.
    They hope the virus is deadly.
    Then they don’t have to face the bleeding obvious.
    We have been invaded by China and it’s global socialist/ commo forces because Trump and Britain were winning, and the west was fighting back.
    It’s so obvious, yet we cling to a virus and pray to god it really is potent.
    All evidence so far, with the corrupted statistics examined, shows it isn’t, and that the death and misery caused by totalitarian government response is going to be much much higher.

  66. Andre Lewis

    As regularly claimed this virus probably is more infectious than regular flu but surely that means it has already infected far more people than our current testing shows so the percentage of people with dangerous symptoms is much lower than we are told. Only those with visible symptoms or who have been in close contact with someone who has it are tested so anyone asymptomatic does not get tested. We do not have to test everyone in the country to get a true figure as well proven sampling techniques undertaken with various groups across the country could tell us what the real human to human infection rate is.
    Until we know accurately whether a) it infects far more or far less people than the numbers we use now, and b) what risk of death or permanent injury ensues for each age group and why, then the modelling used to support the shutdown cannot be trusted.
    It may be that the economy wrecking action was necessary to prevent a massive death toll (politicians and their medical ‘experts’ will definitely claim this in future) OR it was a huge overreach that damages many people’s career and financial/social future based on unreliable opinions – like those from the WHO for example.

  67. Texas Jack

    [email protected]
    #3421714, posted on April 21, 2020 at 12:16 am
    We have a national database that could be used as a test bed to estimate the risk of returning to work while observing precautions. Thousands of supermarket workers across the country in every size city and town are having daily contact with millions of the public. Any of those supermarket staff who became infected would be recorded as staff on sick leave. What proportion have become infected. Dig stats out of the staff data of a few national supermarket chains.

    Post of the week??

  68. Texas Jack

    Meanwhile, 16,000 Virgin employees just hit the tarmac with a thud. That’s 41,600 households directly impacted and thousands of us poor plebs who refuse to fly Qantas (or buy Gillette, get my drift?) are stranded without a carrier.

  69. Meanwhile, 16,000 Virgin employees just hit the tarmac with a thud. That’s 41,600 households directly impacted and thousands of us poor plebs who refuse to fly Qantas (or buy Gillette, get my drift?) are stranded without a carrier.

    If, as noted earlier, the Australian stake in Virgin is only 9%, then why should Australians bail out the company? Maybe give them 9% of what they want and let the other countries bail them out for the other 91%.

    Poor people generally don’t fly very much, if at all, so they probably won’t miss out on that much.

  70. stackja

    Wuhan virus is a new disease.
    I don’t know about the future.
    Who does?
    I do know X1 is responsible.
    We should know how to handle the next Red China pandemic.

  71. Botswana O'Hooligan

    They draft us like sheep at supermarkets to keep us at an arbitrary distance, we wander the aisles at will at a distance of our choosing, we breathe on the merchandise, some of us probably sneeze on it, we who are prudent handle the merchandise, examine the labels to see if it is halal or originates in China or NZ, we proceed to the checkout carefully keeping to the dots or crosses or whatever, the check out person sprays the conveyor with some brew and retires behind a screen, we place our selection on the conveyor, a selection that has been handled or sneezed on several times, the barehanded checkout person handles the merchandise and scans it and then is not allowed to pack the stuff into your bag, and you walk away wondering why they are carrying out an exercise in futility or if indeed the virus is easily spread after all those chances it has had in supermarkets all over the country and statistically, some of those check out people have got to be latter day Typhoid Mary’s.

  72. Anne

    Hi Tel, how are you feeling?

    Might be all nice things but the chances of one big act of government doing all that is zero.

    You assume legislators will be under the control of the same puppet masters as they have been pre-Trump.

    I understand it’s hard to grasp but the world is being released from slavery.

    John F. Kennedy started it. Trump is finishing it. 👍🏻

    Was it Mayer Rothschild who said: Give me control over a Nation’s money and I care not who makes its laws.

  73. Bronson

    So what about Sweden? All I’ve read here is about the disasters in Italy (and Spain by the way too) and NY. Countries and cities that could hardly have been held up as bastions of good order and health management before the virus. Lets face it Italy and Spain were broke before this started propped up by the EU (read Germany here) so public health was not high on their budget agenda. NY a thin veneer of ultra wealthy over the bulk of the population living at or below the poverty line amongst run down infrastructure.
    What is the Swedish experience?

  74. thefrollickingmole

    They hit the big button marked “pandemic plan” on the assumption they were looking at a new SARS/MERS.

    Which if it had been, with a 2 week stealth gestation & MERS like fatality rate a great hing to do.

    But it wasnt.
    Its a flu.

    But the pandemic button has been pressed, everything has swung into action and all the actors are playing their roles.
    Just pitiful that no-one has the intellectual honesty to state they may have made a mistake based on bad data & modeling.
    https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/519F9392797E2DDCCA257D47001B9948/$File/w-AHMPPI-2019.PDF

    A modern day Schlieffen Plan, a thing of beautiful perfection which can fuck up in a million ways, but which will be folloed.

  75. Anthony

    @Megan

    This is the kind of unprovable, bedwetting, hysterical nonsense that has brought us to our economic knees. Prove it, or shut up.

    After 1000 cases, about 10-11 doublings takes you to 1 million:
    1000, 2000, 4000, 8000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000, 512,000, 1,024,000.

    The number of confirmed cases was doubling every three (maybe four) days, see here, or here.

    So, cases doubling every three days, at ten doublings gives you a month.

    You can go from 1 million to 15 million in five doublings:
    1, 2, 4, 8, 16.

    I am assuming that at about 15 million, you are maybe seven weeks into the bulk of the pandemic. At 3-4 weeks to recover from Covid-19, currently sick people start running into predominantly recovered immune people. At that point, I would guess all the over 65s, the few million immunocompromised etc are locked away as hard they could be – so going above that 15 million is hard in my head model.

  76. Anne

    Tel.

    Under the current situation more likely we lose the last little bit of freedom we still have left … that has been the general trend lately.

    That was the Cabal’s plan; to create a genuinely deadly viral pandemic to wipe out a large proportion of the global population and vaccinate the rest.

    But “vaccinate” with what exactly and how would that lead to all humanity accepting Bill Gates’ sub-cutaneous microchip without which no one may buy or sell.

    Interesting sidebar, on 26th of March 2020, Microsoft filed a patent for an implantable body-interfaced crypto currency microchip connected to a cloud computer system. The Patent number 060606. [They] love their symbology.

    Long story, short, those opposed to global enslavement (WhiteHats) thwarted the gain of function of the virus and are now using the Cabal’s pandemic as a cover for rebooting global Governments and Systems, and rescuing millions from the scourge of human traff1ck1ng.

    Haman hanged on his own gallows.

  77. JC I still think the infection rate is no more than 3.

    That’s also really high, Boris. However, if the infection rate is 3%, where would that take the fatality rate?

    I’m sick of these idiots insisting the infection rate is exponential. It’s not exponential as continual exposure meets immunity, thus the 3% or whatever it is inevitably reduces over time.

    It is a classic example of the law of diminishing returns. As for places like New York, they are different for a number of reasons. Firstly, their population density is massive. Secondly, despite the shutdowns, public transport is still working. In places where population density largely rules out private transport, public transport is massive, and possibly the biggest vectors for transmission of all

    Lastly, they are run for leftist morons. New York had Chinese New year celebrations a couple of weeks before it went ballistic. Worse, they pleaded for even more people to come out to “fight racism”.

    Covid19 is a disease, but the actual plague is leftism.

  78. Tim Neilson

    You can go from 1 million to 15 million in five doublings:
    1, 2, 4, 8, 16.

    Yes, but the speed of doubling will slow as the proportion of those who have had it increases.

    The more people who get it and recover, the slower any subsequent spread.

    So it’s not as simple as saying “well it went from 1 to 2 in three days so it will go from 8 to 16 million in 3 days”.

  79. MarcH

    We will be hitting flu season soon. Will the lockdowns continue as the 2-3000 flu deaths a year in Australia are tallied on a daily basis, or are we just counting covid19 deaths?

  80. Exactly Tim, it is logistic, not exponential.

  81. Texas Jack

    bemused
    #3421949, posted on April 21, 2020 at 9:03 am

    If, as noted earlier, the Australian stake in Virgin is only 9%, then why should Australians bail out the company? Maybe give them 9% of what they want and let the other countries bail them out for the other 91%.

    Sorry Bemused, I should have made clear. I’m not advocating a bailout, just noting one of the early high profile casualties of the Lockdown itself.

    Perhaps we should comprise a casualty list?

    Individual Freedom – garroted and left to die
    Personal Resilience – buried under a pile of media excrement and suffocated
    Liberty – in hiding, not seen for two months
    Virgin Airlines – 16,000 job losses, $5b default to bondholders

    Feel free to add to the list….

  82. Phil Roberts

    Anthony
    #3421644, posted on April 20, 2020 at 11:09 pm
    The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.

    Because people aren’t being infected. The Case Fatality Rate is over 1%, no one knows the true infection fatality rate. The fact is 1000 cases can become 1 million in a month and 15 million a few weeks after that. Potentially, you have a couple hundred thousand people simultaneously needing the ICU, and many people dying for lack of an anti-inflammatory or a bit of oxygen. An unknown number may well have permanent lung or heart damage that was easily preventable.

    If people are being turned away from hospitals, regular people will not frequent bars, cafes or other establishments. They will be afraid to go to work. The economy would still enter a recession and a nice big chunk of human capital will have been wiped out.

    How do you not get this?

    How do you know this?

  83. Anne

    Good to see you support BTC Annie.

    I’ve always been suspicious of crypto currencies, Dot.

    It represents total monitoring of transactions between individuals and maximises the Government’s ability to turn people off.

    The next logical step would be the implantable microchip.

    Not good.

  84. Chris M

    The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.

    I can see beyond 100 happening, they are still flying in sick people for a start and several are still in ICU for example. I definitely hope you are right beyond that Steve, but do you acknowledge some countries have seen a resurgence? Do you agree it’s possible this could happen here or do you think the govt will hold out for eradication? The potential is there in such a situation for multiple thousands I’m afraid; some measures of control are needed but clearly not the nutcase illogical approach of the mafia run Eastern states with groups of armed bouncers threatening and stealing from citizens.

  85. Chris M

    Regarding the Eastern states measures – effectively they have no trust in Australian citizens at all and it’s like a thug team of schoolteachers instructing and herding children.

    Is this because of mass third world immigration? They know IQ is dropping because of this and also because of corrupted media, electronic entertainment, low quality education, junk food and other factors. So maybe that’s what its gotten too – average citizens can no longer be trusted with the freedom of being given facts and deciding their own actions. Indeed how many even understand or receive the info being given? hence the need for big daddy government to feed, clothe and strap us in the car seat.

  86. FelixKruell

    The number of deaths from the Corona Virus will possibly never reach 100 and will certainly never reach 1000.

    Only because of the action taken. Other countries gave shown the counter factual leads to far more deaths.

  87. Professor Fred Lenin

    It is not rocket science that if you have little contact with other people you have less chance of being infected , wonder how many t]religous hermits contracted the Black Death ?

  88. John A

    bemused #3421949, posted on April 21, 2020 at 9:03 am

    Meanwhile, 16,000 Virgin employees just hit the tarmac with a thud. That’s 41,600 households directly impacted and thousands of us poor plebs who refuse to fly Qantas (or buy Gillette, get my drift?) are stranded without a carrier.

    If, as noted earlier, the Australian stake in Virgin is only 9%, then why should Australians bail out the company? Maybe give them 9% of what they want and let the other countries bail them out for the other 91%.

    That’s not the point.

    Virgin’s move into voluntary administration is because their business has been killed off by government restrictions. They are a bellwether for many other businesses which have also suffered a catastrophic loss of income from the shutdown, and which may not survive to emerge from the lifting of the restrictions (whenever that happens).

  89. Ellen of Tasmania

    I’ve a theory that the shutdown had as much to do with the lack of available PPE as anything else. In many news stories now, they are almost-sorta-kinda admitting it. They do say that now there is more available PPE they will look at allowing some elective surgery and so on.

    The MSM seem amazingly uninterested in this and never ask why we became so desperately short.

    Re: the numbers. You always have to ask, “Compared to what?”

    I was a 2017 flu victim and the hospitals down here were overflowing. Plenty of PPE, though.

  90. Cynic of Ayr

    Here is my personal and worthless opinion.
    Recall the mad toilet paper debacle? Thousands of people went on a frantic buying spree for toilet paper. I read somewhere yesterday, that some clown wanted to return 900 rolls! People did not even pause to wonder where the hell they were going to store it.
    What caused this? I don’t know! I do not recall any wild stories on the Lying Channel, the
    ABC, that there was going to be a shortage, or even what people were going to do with the stuff, other than it’s normal usage.
    They can’t run their car on it, can’t eat it, can’t read it, can’t burn it, can’t power their home with it, can’t walk it, pet it, feed it, stroke or pat it.
    So, what was it? It was a herd thing! People did what the person beside did!
    My opinion? (eventually, just setting the tone) Morrison and every Politician or medico did exactly the same thing! They followed each other! Not even pausing to wonder what the consequences would be.
    I said before, there is no way to do this again, for a long, long time. There is no money left. If a virus appears in two years time, well, just stick your head between your knees and kiss your bum goodbye, whether you get the virus or not.

  91. Anthony

    Yes, but the speed of doubling will slow as the proportion of those who have had it increases.

    The more people who get it and recover, the slower any subsequent spread.

    So it’s not as simple as saying “well it went from 1 to 2 in three days so it will go from 8 to 16 million in 3 days”.

    Indeed, you are correct of course.

    The issue I see is that the course of disease seems to be about three weeks, with really severe cases in hospital after a few days and less bad cases like BoJo, 7-10 days. So, even if you are doubling every two weeks, there is still some overlap between your first cohort of infected patients and the second. For the first few months, that is tolerable, but eventually you get patients infected at different times showing up simultaneously. At the moment there is like 170 hospitalisations for about 2500 active cases. So, that is about 6.5-7%, now maybe as the number of infections spreads, a greater proportion of healthy people get it, and that number falls maybe even down to 1% of infections. In gross numbers it is overwhelming, and even if your infection rate falls, your increase in absolute numbers keeps going up.

    With this disease, it can be hard to detect a sick person. Maybe 50-70% are asymptomatic, symptomatic people are contagious a few days before they become fully unwell. So, it can spread very rapidly. Now, I think the whole country could wear masks and keep most activities going pretty well, but we don’t have lots of masks. So, inevitably, as the number of infections rise, people take precautions like social distancing as they have no other option to keep themselves safe.

    Negative economic growth is inevitable sooner or later.

  92. ryki

    The number of confirmed cases was doubling every three (maybe four) days, see here, or here.
    So, cases doubling every three days, at ten doublings gives you a month.

    Oh God.

    No. No. No.

    Positive cases were doubling because we did more tests.

    But do you know what else was doubling?

    Negative cases.

    That’s right. In fact, the ratio of positive/negative cases never significantly increased (in fact it was diminishing until the lockdowns started).

    People who have no idea about epidemiology look at the number of positive cases and completely ignore the fact that if you have a bigger sample you will always get a bigger number. But the only way of knowing if the disease is spreading is if the ratio of positive/negative cases is increasing over time.

    It did not.

  93. Wozzup

    Twenty years ago we had the Y2K scam.
    Now we are having the Y2K +20 scam. Same, same!
    The only difference is that in the lead up to Y2K fortunes were made by carpet baggers touting the Y2K meme and selling their “expertise” at inflated prices.
    Today, fortunes are still being made by carpet baggers. But fortunes are also being lost by ordinary citizens.

  94. Bad Samaritan

    ryki 911.22am). I know there are 20 million passenger vehicles registered in Australia. I also know how many are Toyotas and how many are Protons. I know the exact numbers but will only say there are a lot of Toyotas and very few Protons.

    How would you go about discovering (by sampling) these numbers, and do you believe the numbers so calculated would be correct?

  95. Chris M

    Virgin’s move into voluntary administration is because their business has been killed off by government restrictions.

    Already? It was apparently poorly run – charging high prices for basic LCC levels of service yet mostly full prior to Wuhan virus. To die in weeks implies either very poor management or someone was milking the profits which is kind of the same thing. Let it die, no govt money – if private investors or unions want to, go for it.

  96. Only because of the action taken. Other countries gave shown the counter factual leads to far more deaths.

    No it does not.

  97. Virgin’s move into voluntary administration is because their business has been killed off by government restrictions.

    I understand that, as is the same with many wholly Australian owned businesses. And my point is, that if Virgin is a viable business, then shouldn’t those countries that have a majority interest in the business also contribute to its existence and help it recover?

    How much money did government give to Ford/Holden, only to find them pulling out of Australia anyway? The government should be pressuring the majority shareholders to support Virgin, not just lump the Australian taxpayer with the entire burden.

  98. FelixKruell

    Legalise Sedition:

    No it does not.

    Sure it does. Other countries who didn’t enact measures like ours as quickly had way more than 100 or even a 1000 deaths, even when you adjust for differing populations

  99. Nanuestalker

    @ JC
    Liberty quote:

    But, here’s the thing, after this time no punter will ever give credit to a model…. except if its a Victoria’s secret model.

    🙂

  100. egg_

    Yes, it’s a fraud promoted by hysteria mongers like BorisG et. al.

    And a handful of Cat useful idiots.
    Sad.

  101. Up The Workers!

    So let me get this straight…

    When multi-Billionaire Sir Richard Branson’s ‘Virgin’ is comprehensively poxed, he points the finger of blame at the Australian taxpaying peasantry and claims that it is all our fault, and we need to pay for the cure.

    When was the last time Sir Richard Branson actually hit his own pocket to bail out common or garden-variety Aussie peasants when they went bankrupt…ever?

    Why does he expect us to be more philanthropically-disposed towards him, than he is towards us?

    And if his Virgin has only ever been performing for money all these years, I suspect that she is not entirely as pristine as he likes to suggest she is.

    What a choice we have under Australia’s current incarnation of a two-airline policy: you can either go Tranny or Tart

  102. Don’t forget that Virgin also wants the UK government to bail them out as well:

  103. Up The Workers!

    To Wozzup at 11.34 a.m.:

    The biggest beneficiaries of the Y2k carpet-baggery, were the customers of personal lubricant manufacturer, “KY Gel”.

    When “KY Gel” was finally granted full Y2K certification, it changed its name to “Y2KY Gel”.

    The big significance of this change was that all those long-term customers and consumers who had always been previously restricted to inserting just two digits in their date, could now insert a full four digits in their date.

    Now that’s progress!

  104. egg_

    Cranks here will tell you all numbers are fake.

    One of my best friends in Moscow…

    The parody troll is beyond parody.

  105. WUHAN Virus started out as a panic (due to the ‘Always Wrong’ computer models) and has turned into a fraud (due to needing to affirm the ‘Always Wrong’ computer model outputs).

    Stop comparing Australia to NY City or Spain or Italy. LOCALITY MATTERS. SEASONS MATTER.
    Upstate New York isn’t experiencing anything like NY City. Southern Italy isn’t experiencing anything like the “Hug a Chinaman” Northern Italy.

    South Africa is in the Southern Hemisphere like Australia is. Same seasons.
    Does anyone believe the shanty town dwellers and the large criminal element in South Africa dutifully obeyed the social distancing rules? Does anyone believe those who have been surviving from day to day sat dutifully in their homes and starved?
    South Africa has 3300 positive identified cases and 58 deaths. I doubt they managed to identify all the cases, so the real number may be 330,000, who knows?

    Much the same people who ‘believe’ in the Climate Catastrophe, are happy to be locked down for as long as it takes.
    Much the same people who are sceptical of the Climate catastrophe, want the economy opened up ASAP.
    Both crisis were imagined due to computer modelling. Always Wrong, sometimes indicative.

  106. littledozer

    . [email protected]
    #3421714, posted on April 21, 2020 at 12:16 am
    We have a national database that could be used as a test bed to estimate the risk of returning to work while observing precautions. Thousands of supermarket workers across the country in every size city and town are having daily contact with millions of the public. Any of those supermarket staff who became infected would be recorded as staff on sick leave. What proportion have become infected. Dig stats out of the staff data of a few national supermarket chains.

    We have another set of data from Tasmania as well

    From the Australian:

    As of Tuesday morning, the virus had infected 72 staff at the North West Regional and other local hospitals, as well as 22 patients, 11 household contacts and seven other contacts of infected people. “The number of cases associated with that outbreak seems to be trailing off and that’s very encouraging,” Dr Veitch said. “It suggests that the transmission that might have occurred when the hospitals were open, before people went into quarantine, is now easing

    So for 197 cases in Tassie, 2 Ruby Princess carriers infected the hospital(s) and led to a total of 112 infections but the important part is that it led to 7 just 7 community transmissions.

    I’m no mathematician but even a rudimentary look at the data indicates the R0 has to be below 1. The data suggests that health workers most likely touched contaminated surfaces to contract the virus.

    The data from Tasmania is in line with what we are seeing in every State, falling cases because R0 is (well?) below 1.

  107. egg_

    This will be the recession Australia didn’t have to have.

    SloMo’s epitaph?

  108. Here is a good piece about this virus and its transmission etc by the always good Sundance at The Conservative Treehouse

    There are few high-traffic businesses more densely populated than grocery stores. In fact, within the U.S. economy retail supermarkets have the highest foot traffic of any business sector in the entire economy; that’s just an empirical fact…. and the coronavirus impact increased that foot traffic by an average of 40 percent. Now, stop and think about this logically & apply a large dose of common sense. Think about human-to-human interface.

    ♦First, with approximately 90 percent of the total U.S. population penetrating through grocery outlets; and with 100% of that massive number of consumers going through checkout lanes; if the COVID-19 viral strain was as significant as claimed by the worst-case data, then supermarket cashiers would have been the highest exposed profession of U.S. workers in the entire nation. There wouldn’t even be a close second place.

    Considering that metric; and considering the overall population penetration & density within the business operation; there has not been an employee-based business disruption due to the coronavirus. Put another way: the coronavirus has not stopped the function of the highest human interface occupation in the entire U.S. economy.

    ♦Secondly, think about the businesses that are closed; perhaps think about your job that may have been shut down…. now frame your risk based on the supermarket example as highest human interface and highest population penetration in any business field.

    If the #1 at risk industry has operated, essentially without disruption and with almost zero substantive mitigation, while carrying the largest population exposure rate, then all other less-exposed business operations would have significantly less operational risk.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/20/common-sense-and-human-interface-georgia-governor-brian-kemp-announces-phased-reopening-of-business-starting-this-week/

  109. Kneel

    “As regularly claimed this virus probably is more infectious than regular flu…”

    Which would tend to indicate it is less lethal as well. Infectious and highly fatal virus’ don’t stay that way for long – it’s not a good survival strategy for a parasite to kill the host, so any variants that are less deadly or less infectious tend to be selected for. The longer it “hangs around” the less of an issue it will be.

  110. MarcH

    Baa [email protected] 12:58 pm. That’s one of the best demonstrations of how low the risk of this thing is. There must be something in the water to explain the mass hysteria.

  111. egg_

    After 1000 cases, about 10-11 doublings takes you to 1 million:
    1000, 2000, 4000, 8000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000, 512,000, 1,024,000.

    The clown ignores Farr’s law.

  112. Chris M

    Encouraging to read the WHO state today ‘worst is yet to come’ – good because like BOM long range forecast predictions reality would be the opposite of course. But the 3rd world countries are an unknown factor…

  113. egg_

    Virgin’s move into voluntary administration is because their business has been killed off by government restrictions. They are a bellwether for many other businesses which have also suffered a catastrophic loss of income from the shutdown, and which may not survive to emerge from the lifting of the restrictions (whenever that happens).

    The fact that this needs to be rubbed in on an allegedly Economics blog is shameful.

  114. Iampeter

    Cranks here will tell you all numbers are fake.

    One of my best friends in Moscow…

    The parody troll is beyond parody.

    I don’t agree with BorisG re lock-downs but he is one of the very few posters here that can’t be described as a parody troll.
    He’s also not wrong about Trump-aligned crackpots trying to pretend this is a deep state plot or something.

    Well said, indeed.
    This is one of the biggest episodes of mass hysteria and fraud in world history.

    This has been nothing more than a solid implementation of policies socialists and nationalists have been calling for.
    You Trump supporters didn’t even need to build a wall to get what you wanted. You should be loving it.

    Unless you haven’t joined the dots yet, between what you believe in and what it looks like in practice…

  115. egg_

    Iampeter
    #3422320, posted on April 21, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    Low wattage parody troll #2 shows up.
    Sad.

  116. egg_

    Thousands of supermarket workers across the country in every size city and town are having daily contact with millions of the public. Any of those supermarket staff who became infected would be recorded as staff on sick leave. What proportion have become infected. Dig stats out of the staff data of a few national supermarket chains.

    And as others have said, increased patronage due to withholding of supply.

  117. Mark A

    Iampeter
    #3422320, posted on April 21, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    Yes, yes, yes.
    Nobody but you understands politics and everything in the universe.

    Just log in and type your name, we shall know what you were going to say.

  118. Tim Neilson

    Iampeter
    #3422320, posted on April 21, 2020 at 1:38 pm

    Poor old logic fail.

    Once again with the cartoon-like binary labels and stupid facile absolutist dogmatic generalisations.

    If I lock my front gate at night am I infringing other people’s “rights”?

    If a club with 1500 members who jointly own the freehold for the club’s premises (via a company structure) declare the club a members and their guests only venue, are they infringing other people’s rights?

    If the Melbourne Cricket Club, with 100,000 members, declares the members’ area a members and their guests only venue, are they infringing other people’s rights?

    Why can’t Australia just declare itself to have a dual character – both nation state and private club, and close the borders as an exercise of the joint owners’ property rights?

  119. Anthony

    Infectious and highly fatal virus’ don’t stay that way for long – it’s not a good survival strategy for a parasite to kill the host, so any variants that are less deadly or less infectious tend to be selected for. The longer it “hangs around” the less of an issue it will be.

    Maybe. HIV is a good example of a virus that is highly lethal but has a long incubation time and allows it to spread.

    Ebola is an example where the virus should die out very quickly, but spread like wildfire because IIRC the victims dead bodies were still quite infectious and spread at funerals etc.

    The current suppression strategy will likely mean most strains of the virus will need to mutate to incubate for longer and with less symptoms in people isolated at home. Perhaps slowly infecting several members of a household over many weeks or months. There is some data from a pre print out of China, that 5% of people don’t develop antibodies, possibly harbouring the virus latently or vulnerable to reinfection. See here.

    On the other hand the severe strains of the virus are more likely to land people in hospital. So, there may be more severe strains circulating in medical settings which would have to be quashed.

  120. Anthony

    Thousands of supermarket workers across the country in every size city and town are having daily contact with millions of the public. Any of those supermarket staff who became infected would be recorded as staff on sick leave. What proportion have become infected. Dig stats out of the staff data of a few national supermarket chains.

    Probably lots of young casuals stacking shelves with minimal exposure to viral particles. In the US there have been some high profile casualties who were packing grocery bags for people.

    Of course, there has been lots of transmission on cruise ships amongst both passengers and crew. Seems to be lots of transmission on returning international travelers also. For whatever reason, people in those settings seem more at risk.

  121. mem

    We will be hitting flu season soon. Will the lockdowns continue as the 2-3000 flu deaths a year in Australia are tallied on a daily basis, or are we just counting covid19 deaths?

    Mate, we will be counting anything we can to justify the close down soon. Even my neighbor who at 96 lives alone and grows her own veggies has said, well I’ve got a die of something. I’ve never seen anyone’s death notice say they died of old age. Usually it is put down as heart failure or pneumonia. Which I suppose makes sense.

  122. Matt

    It fascinates me that people don’t understand prevention.

  123. Megan

    Virgin’s move into voluntary administration is because their business has been killed off by government restrictions.

    And they are just the first.

  124. Kneel

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-much-more-widespread-previously-though/


    “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Bendavid said in an interview

    If that’s true… ouch.

  125. Iampeter

    @Tim – you’ve once again not understood what was said and have gone off on random tangents that no one’s discussing.

    Yes, yes, yes.
    Nobody but you understands politics and everything in the universe.

    I wouldn’t say that, but there’s definitely a big problem with conservatives, nationalists and Trump supporters who have been calling for arbitrary rights violating policies and are now complaining after getting exactly what they wanted.
    Imagine how much more upset you’re going to be when you realize this is what you were asking for.

    I guess that’s why evading and dismissing what I’m saying is your only option.
    I don’t know how you’d deal with the kind of beclownment awaiting conservatives, nationalists and Trump supporters if they ever join the dots and realize this is what the policies they are after look like in practice.

  126. Tim Neilson

    @Tim – you’ve once again not understood what was said and have gone off on random tangents that no one’s discussing.

    Once again you’re totally unable to answer my question without total self-beclownment so you lie through your teeth to try to evade.

  127. Iampeter

    Once again you’re totally unable to answer my question without total self-beclownment so you lie through your teeth to try to evade.

    Refusing to answer random questions that have nothing to do with what’s being discussed says nothing about inability to answer them. That’s as much a non-sequitur as your random question.
    If you had a political point to counter what I said about the politics of those pretending to oppose lock out laws, which they actually support in principle, then you would’ve just gone with that.

    The only “lying through your teeth” happening here is your continued attempt to pretend to be discussing politics, while clearly having no idea about the subject, not even where to begin. All this does is derail threads.

    Also, these desperate attempts for my attention in every single thread are sad and pathetic.

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