Nowhere to hide: “Herd immunity is the only realistic option”

In the latest Foreign Affairs: Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s.

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64 Responses to Nowhere to hide: “Herd immunity is the only realistic option”

  1. BorisG

    This title is nonsense, as is most of what CL is writing nowadays on this topic. China has beaten this virus without any sign of herd immunity and Australia is doing it too, but with far fewer deaths. WA is gradually resuming near normal life from next Monday.

    The so called shutdown will soon be a small blip on the road to prosperity,

  2. struth

    Boris G.
    Is the G for…G I’m Gullible?

  3. jupes

    WA is gradually resuming near normal life from next Monday.

    Football?
    Pubs?
    Concerts?

    How near to normal is that?

    You idiot.

  4. Herodotus

    No mention of how the “migrants” are behaving.

  5. Bad Samaritan

    BorisG; Herd immunity already exists in that 80-90% of people infected are not affected.
    They are already immune. Whether this is because they’ve had a similar CV before (plenty associated with the common cold etc) or this CV this time around is the question.

    As you know, CV is a predominantly cold-weather infection, like all these influenza-type illnesses, which= not a real worry in Oz. Plus, it appears that being diseased in the first place is what makes the effects of CV stronger, which once again takes us back to herd immunity; the diseased people’s immunity is weakened while the rest of the herd’s is not..

    The notion that the shutdown is of no concern takes us back to what Adolf did with the Reichstag fire….sure it was but a “blip” compared to what came 7 years later, but it did have it’s part to play….”though a German court decided later that year that Van der Lubbe had acted alone, as he claimed…. After the fire, the Reichstag Fire Decree was passed. The Nazi Party used the fire as a pretext to claim that communists were plotting against the German government, and the event is considered pivotal in the establishment of Nazi Germany.”

    The “Fire Decree”……”for the Protection of People and State”…was, as you note, but one step along the fascist pathway, however every journey does begin with a first step, does it not?

  6. Chester Draws

    and Australia is doing it too, but with far fewer deaths

    Well, if by “beating” you mean hiding in a corner until it goes away, then yes, Australia is “beating” CV. It’s a definition of “beating” that isn’t very meaningful.

    If a vaccine doesn’t come along, then how does this end? Quarantine all visitors forever? Go into lockdown every time CV arrives — which will happen even with quarantines unless all air crew are in perpetual lockdown.

  7. Matt

    So Sweden is aiming for herd immunity, and they are on correct path according to CL?
    Herd immunity (at least in the linked article) requires 60% of the population to have had the virus.
    Might want to check the numbers:
    Sweden 2830 cases per million – 0.28% of the population infected
    UK 3434
    Italy 3690
    USA 4382
    Iceland 5281
    Spain 5831

    How’s that herd immunity going?

  8. If no one can even catch the disease…what an epic fail Matt.

    We don’t need to do anything at all.

    Keep on clapping champion.

  9. notafan

    It’s a fairly balanced article which explains Sweden’s death rate, a poor reflection on them, btw.

    The most important thing about the Swedish model is personal responsibility not draconian government like the appalling QLD health person who closed schools to learn us.

  10. Rohan

    BorisG earning his bags of Aldi cash. Well done. Your ChiCom handlers have put in a little extra today.

  11. John Brumble

    See the problem you have with your pro-big-government/”let’s all hide in a corner and agree with everything government tells us”, Matt, is that the numbers are entirely not on your side. The original modelling, even in the worst hit areas, was so massively wrong that there’s nowhere left for you to hide. And it’s particularly the case for Australia. Because either the virus is a non-starter and we’ve just destroyed the economy and with it the lives of millions so that a few people who are likely to die in the next few years anyway drop off the mortal coil a little earlier, OR, it is a massive problem and we’ve just missed a prime opportunity to develop some herd immunity before a second wave in winter hits and death-rates skyrocket. And either it’s not very contagious, so the numbers won’t approach herd immunity even with everyone attending the supermarket, or it is very contagious in which case everyone’s had it despite the economy-destroying restrictions.
    Hey, how about that corona-virus! It knows the difference between when people go to the supermarket and when they go to the beach, or when children go to school and when they play with their friends. It even knows the difference between when politicians and police stand in close proximity and when I go and hug my Mum on Mother’s Day.

  12. John Brumble

    That should be “don’t drop off the mortal coil…”

  13. Matt

    Interesting how you can glean all of that pro-government nonsense about me from a post on the number of cases per country John. I’m just questioning the narrative that Sweden seems to have hit on the winning solution through herd immunity, which is simply not supported by the data. Let’s wait and see what happens if we start to see infection rates approaching 10% of the population and the case fatality rate remains around 1%.

  14. mh

    Sweden reported 69 new deaths.

  15. Anthony

    Unknown if herd immunity is possible. I’ve seen various studies showing between 50-90% develop antibodies. If you don’t develop antibodies, maybe you can be reinfected, even if you have T cell immunity maybe you can still be contagious.

    The other thing is we don’t know how long antibodies last. SARS seemed to produce antibodies for a few years, but we have limited sample size. We dont have herd immunity common cold coronaviruses. Common cold coronaviruses only provoke immunity for about a year, then reinfection is possible. So, to get to herd immunity you may need a couple million people to be infected per month, for several months, if not the whole year. It’s unclear if it is possible or likely.

  16. Ellen of Tasmania

    It’s a fairly balanced article which explains Sweden’s death rate, a poor reflection on them, btw

    I don’t think we’ll be able to make accurate assessments about different country’s death rates until this is over – which might be 2 or 3 years away. Then we can decide whether Sweden’s death rate is a poor reflection on them.

    I suspect it is wise to let the people out and about during their longer daylight months. There’s a lot of different things that go to make up a healthy immune system, including a merry heart. (Prov. 17:22)

  17. C.L.

    How’s that herd immunity going?

    It’s “going” very well.
    Hiding at home when there is no vaccine will achieve nothing long-term for other countries when their leaders finally realise that people have to go back to work to pay for it all. That’s because the virus will still be around and will still kill the same small minority of infected patients. All they’re doing is delaying the inevitable.

    As the article points out, all countries of the world must Swedenise. There is no choice.

    China has beaten this virus

    LOL, Boris. Bless.

    It’s a fairly balanced article which explains Sweden’s death rate, a poor reflection on them, btw.

    Why is it a poor reflection on them?

  18. Matt

    Well, if the article points it out, then it must be true.

  19. Mitch M.

    Anthony
    #3453906, posted on May 15, 2020 at 8:26 am
    Unknown if herd immunity is possible. I’ve seen various studies showing between 50-90% develop antibodies. If you don’t develop antibodies, maybe you can be reinfected, even if you have T cell immunity maybe you can still be contagious.

    The other thing is we don’t know how long antibodies last. SARS seemed to produce antibodies for a few years, but we have limited sample size. We dont have herd immunity common cold coronaviruses. Common cold coronaviruses only provoke immunity for about a year, then reinfection is possible. So, to get to herd immunity you may need a couple million people to be infected per month, for several months, if not the whole year. It’s unclear if it is possible or likely.

    You’re highlighting my problem with anyone who invokes the herd immunity argument. The available evidence doesn’t support it and in some respects contradicts it.

    Another more worrying aspect is the attitude that we can just put up with being infected and treat it like having the flu. That is potentially a very dangerous position to take because unlike the flu through ACE 2 COVID has the potential to inflict widespread damage throughout the body. That damage could remain hidden for years if not decades resulting in later onset of reduced kidney function, cardiac and neurologic pathology. Again, we don’t know yet but it is an unwarranted assumption that COVID infection does not have long term health risks. It is well documented that after some viral infections neurologic symptoms persist. Repeated infections in individuals will amplify that risk.

  20. C.L.

    I don’t think we’ll be able to make accurate assessments about different country’s death rates until this is over – which might be 2 or 3 years away. Then we can decide whether Sweden’s death rate is a poor reflection on them.

    I don’t think death rates will ever be a fair criterion for judgement.
    The police state rate and the unemployment rate are equally – if not more – important.
    That is: 1) which countries embraced nazism to save extra lives?

    2) It is not moral to destroy lives and livelihoods to save ‘extra’ lives at the margin. Lockdown fanatics are being icy sociopaths – acting as though 20- 30 percent unemployment isn’t going to kill a huge number of people. It will. That is inevitable.

    So inevitable that Brendan Murphy got a new offsider added to his team last week. Ruth Vine is now suicide czar.

  21. Infidel Tiger King

    Boris G shilling for China again.

    What a disgraceful person.

  22. Leo G

    Herd immunity already exists in that 80-90% of people infected are not affected.

    The evidence from every outbreak of CV-19 is that the majority of those exposed, regardless of age-group or co-morbidity status, resist the infection to some degree even when the exposure is high.
    It is as if CV-19 is a modified human coronavirus and not a recent zoonosis.

  23. Snoopy

    Ruth Vine is now suicide czar.

    Victoria’s former chief psychiatrist. Psychiatry is voodoo medicine. She’ll be right at home with the epidemiologists.

  24. Robbo

    Boris G. The G isn’t for gullible it’s for grub.

  25. Matt

    Let me get this right CL – we can’t believe any of the pre-pandemic modelling because it’s all wrong, but you pluck a figure of 20-30% unemployment out of no-where (a day after unemployment figures came out lower than predicted) and expect us to believe that. Hilarious!

  26. Driftforge

    ‘Herd immunity’ is a wonderful euphemism. It’s the unavoidable consequence suffered those with insufficient state competence.

    I’m as surprised as anyone that Australia seems to have ended up on the side of the competent, and done so with relatively minimal disruption.

  27. Mitch M.

    Leo G
    #3453942, posted on May 15, 2020 at 9:01 am
    Herd immunity already exists in that 80-90% of people infected are not affected.

    The evidence from every outbreak of CV-19 is that the majority of those exposed, regardless of age-group or co-morbidity status, resist the infection to some degree even when the exposure is high.
    It is as if CV-19 is a modified human coronavirus and not a recent zoonosis.

    For the time being. Immunity is not always forever. That’s why sometimes we need booster shots for some vaccines.

  28. Infidel Tiger King

    and done so with relatively minimal disruption.

    None at all. It’s been a breeze.

    The whole economy crushed for a generation, for a problem we never had.

  29. Tel

    The so called “Lockdown” obviously never stopped the virus from spreading because it turned up in nursing homes long after everyone was officially under house arrest.

    The reason is obvious: you cannot actually stop a modern economy, given as how interdependent everyone is on everyone else, the best you can do it lock some people, while sending aggressive police to intimidate others, and still allow the “essential” business to continue. In our area “essential” business includes take away food and courier delivery so they stuff you are eating was just handled and breathed on by a bunch of people right before you are eating it. The “essential” business included keeping all public transport running so people are wedged into a tiny chamber full of aerosol virus transmission. The child care stayed open based on the weird and unscientific belief that children cannot pass on this virus (every parent will tell you that’s crap). Supermarkets stayed open, despite being the place

    We had this “social distancing” which was a seat of the pants solution, unproven, never previously tested, based on an unfounded belief that the virus cannot go aerosol and all transmission was via large droplets with ballistic trajectory. This turned out to also be crap, people who have gone over the studies note that the primary mode of transmission between humans is aerosol (listen to Power Hour interview with Daniil Gorbatenko under the title “Safer Outside” for details).

    What’s more, the aggressive government attitude no doubt ensured that many people never reported minor symptoms, especially if they were amongst the people who still had jobs and didn’t want to get locked up. Since the minor symptoms go away in a week or two, better just shut up about it and go about your business as a cycle delivery person, or whatever you are doing.

    China has beaten this virus without any sign of herd immunity and Australia is doing it too, but with far fewer deaths.

    The CCP has declared it beaten, if that’s what you mean. From this day forward all the old people die of something else … and anyway it’s Trump’s fault if they do die. Since the virus was loose at the Wuhan military games in October 2019 there’s plenty of time for herd immunity amongst the PLA and those are the people who matter, therefore nothing to worry about.

  30. Ellen of Tasmania

    I don’t think death rates will ever be a fair criterion for judgement

    I agree, CL. I was only trying (poorly) to suggest that while we are in the midst of this, we should be careful about making comparisons & assessments based on current outcomes.

  31. John Brumble

    Don’t play that sealion bull**** with me, Matt. You’ve made a number of posts on this topic and every single one of them shares a common thread.

    In this case, the data shows absolutely nothing negative about how efficacious Sweden’s response is. You would expect that a response to a disease that was aiming for herd immunity would front-end deaths. What it does show is that a number of countries in the same geographic region which have implemented lock-downs are recording the same results. Whether it’s been successful or not will depend on the final standings in about 2 to 3 years. As it stands, though, they are doing one heck of a lot better than, for example, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts or Louisiana; or Spain, Italy, France or the UK..
    It’s almost as if closing borders and having special provisions for the elderly and “at risk” has the same effect as shutting down everything and much better results than not shutting down borders, encouraging large gatherings of people and forcing nursing homes to take sick people while shutting everything down.

  32. Matt

    Leo G
    #3453942, posted on May 15, 2020 at 9:01 am
    Herd immunity already exists in that 80-90% of people infected are not affected.

    Clearly some people don’t understand what herd immunity actually means.

  33. If people cannot even catch it, we’re already post herd immunity given our previous interaction with similar Coronaviruses.

    Do nothing is and always was the best choice.

    Claiming “herd immunity will fail* because the disease cannot be transmitted in a permissive open society really shows up what a hoax the fake crisis was.

  34. Matt

    And the data shows nothing positive about their response either John. I agree that time will tell which response is best – I’m not arguing that Sweden or Australia has adopted the right approach, and am record here as pushing for relaxing of restrictions (successfully) for my particular industry based on an understanding of the disease epidemiology and the data. All I’m suggesting is that there is a lot of fawning over the Swedish response which is simply not supported by the data, and is an ideological position that people are taking. That’s all.

  35. mh

    From the article

    Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60 percent of the population has had the virus.

  36. Leo G

    The so called “Lockdown” obviously never stopped the virus from spreading because it turned up in nursing homes long after everyone was officially under house arrest.

    Nursing homes and retitirement villages are communities with many close contact interactions amongst residents and between residents and care providers. Many of the care providers have many close-contact interactions across a number of communities.
    There are thousands of such communities across the country and the overwhelming majority have had no CV-19 infections.
    This observation highlights the fallacy of pseudo-scientific herd immunity models which model a diverse group of communities with great variations in inter-connectivity as a single homogeneous population.

  37. Struth

    It’s like going over the Vietnam war with some of you people.
    Quoting figures here and there as if you are experts, yet that’s all history.
    The figures have been proven to be bullshit and fudged.
    But don’t let that stop you crapping on, because your figures are right and no one else’s are.
    Looking at the way the figures have been completely exposed as bullshit from Italy, New York, and England to name but a few, the way financial incentive was used or just pure socialist propaganda from socialist medical bureaucracies and politically motivated Governors, from the admissions of many doctors of them being pressured into writing Covid 19 on death certificates, to the insanity of never being given hospitalisation rates, but just dodgy infection rates from socialist bureaucracies using faulty Chinese test kits, to the obvious use of a cold virus to smash a resurgent west , FMD, I could go on, yet weeks later you fuckwits are still, STILL, quoting figures as if they are unquestionable truths.
    And so as a nation we go down.

    Prove your figures are accurate.

  38. Tim Neilson

    Sweden 2830 cases per million

    That would be “reported” cases Matt.

    Has there been widespread testing of the asymptomatic to get an idea about what the real incidence is?

  39. That is potentially a very dangerous position to take because unlike the flu through ACE 2 COVID has the potential to inflict widespread damage throughout the body. That damage could remain hidden for years if not decades resulting in later onset of reduced kidney function, cardiac and neurologic pathology. Again, we don’t know yet but it is an unwarranted assumption that COVID infection does not have long term health risks.

    My bolding.

    Reminds me of the bullshit about a 1.5DegC temp rise MAY cause the BR to turn into a wasteland, MIGHT kill off all the polie bears, COULD create havoc with extreme weather, MAY cause all the seas to turn into acid yada yada yada.
    IF my auntie had balls, she MIGHT have been able to impregnate herself.
    Give the scaremongering a rest FFS.

  40. duncanm

    This is worth a read – death rates due to Influenza decades after the pandemic, on Pacific islands who had been successful in isolating themselves from the world-pandemic.
    https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:329231/UQ329231_fulltext.pdf

    Seems it’ll boil down to how much exposure we have to similar viruses with lower mortality before the bad stuff hits.

    American Samoa and New Caledonia .. the influenza-related mortality on these islands during post-pandemic epidemics was much lower than the mortality during epidemics on similar islands during the 1918–1919 pandemic period [2, 6].

    In contrast, on the very isolated islands of Rotuma, Yule Island, Niue, and Jaluit, post-pandemic influenza epidemics – some as long as several decades after the 1918–1919 pandemic period –caused high morbidity and high mortality [8–11]. Of particular note, influenza-related mortality on these islands during post-pandemic epidemics was comparable to that on similar islands during 1918 pandemic-related epidemics. Together, the findings of this report suggest that extreme social isolation is a significant determinant of mortality risk during influenza epidemics.

    Now moving into winter, exposure doesn’t seem like a good idea.

  41. Struth

    You hear that fear leads to irrationality, but to see it so plainly before you in those you once considered rational is gobsmacking.
    The same people would argue about global warming figures until the cows came home, demanding every way of calculating be examined thoroughly, and debunking the propaganda in the stats daily.
    Stats appearing from government bureaucracies and all.

    But a bit of “pandemic” propaganda has them shitting themselves and unquestioningly believing all they are told.

    This is the emasculation we cannot afford as a nation.

  42. old bloke

    Until wide ranging antigen testing is conducted, we won’t know how many were infected and didn’t show any symptoms. It’s possible that “herd immunity” may already exist in some places.

  43. Struth

    Now moving into winter, exposure doesn’t seem like a good idea.

    You could let the grey Nomads out of their prisons in Victoria to escape the cold weather.

    Here’s the point.
    Nothing government does in response to this will help.
    It has shown, as we all knew it would, it will only make matters much worse.

    Deal with the virus as best you can, if you think it’s even a drama, and demand that the bloke from the government that says he’s here to help, gets a boot up his arse and told to do absolutely nothing.

    When all is said and done, this may sound a ridiculous thing to say, but not one of you can even prove the Virus exists.
    Now it may well do, but you can’t prove it.
    None of you have witnessed it, and if you have it would appear as a cold, which is what it is.

    But unless you are a scientist in a lab looking at the virus you cannot even prove it exists.
    Death rates overall have not increased this year in any country.
    But you swallow propaganda as if it is fact, without questioning the sources.
    And it is “without questioning the sources” bit which is born of fear, because you questioned the sources regards Climate Change.
    You did not just believe what you were told.
    Why now, if not from fear?

  44. Diogenes

    P
    OTOH

    Governments around the world say they are following ‘The Science’ with their draconian measures to stem the spread of the virus. But the science around Covid-19 is bitterly contested. Many experts have serious doubts about the effectiveness of the measures, and argue that our outside fears of Covid-19 are not justified.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

  45. Bruce in WA

    China has said it has beaten this virus without any sign of herd immunity

    FIFY. You funny, Boris.

  46. Leo G

    That is potentially a very dangerous position to take because unlike the flu through ACE 2 COVID has the potential to inflict widespread damage throughout the body.

    Actually, strains of influenza A (H7N9, H1N1, and H5N1) also use the ACE2 receptor in the same way seen in CV19 severe acute respiratory distress syndrome.
    CV19 may simply use the ACE2 receptor more efficiently, or it may be that drugs that interfere with the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system are now used more widely and are increasing the susceptibility to coronaviruses of people treated with ACE inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers.

  47. Crossie

    I think there are already regional versions of this virus, as it travelled with people it adapted to new conditions. It also behaves rationally, quick transfers from person to person leads to greater virulence and bigger gaps between person to person usually results in milder cases. The virus doesn’t need to spare the carrier if there is another one close by for a quick jump. Where carriers are few and far between it will need to spare the host or it dies with it.

    New York’s strain seems to be quite nasty because the population is concentrated in one place. Much milder cases are in less populated states, there are even differences between cities and suburbs.

    Just as an aside, whenever we travel to Europe either my husband or I get a cold, last year it was both of us but we could have given it to each other after catching from locals. I would guess this is due to the fact that the local population had been through the infection wave and built up herd immunity. We were newcomers to the region and did not have that immunity or not to that particular strain.

  48. Tel

    Nursing homes and retitirement villages are communities with many close contact interactions amongst residents and between residents and care providers. Many of the care providers have many close-contact interactions across a number of communities.

    I don’t run a nursing home, nor do I know anyone in such a home, nor do I visit them.

    The fact remains that somehow, locking me in my house was supposedly going to save these people, and it was an outright failure as made clear with the data. You can come up with any explanation you like, but if all that’s so well know, why did the government policy still fail those people?

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0

    At least 28 cruise ship passengers and crew, and 24 nursing home residents are among the dead.

    Nursing home residents were one quarter of all the Australian CCP-19 deaths. Don’t try to tell me that’s a typical statistical distribution.

    There are thousands of such communities across the country and the overwhelming majority have had no CV-19 infections.
    This observation highlights the fallacy of pseudo-scientific herd immunity models which model a diverse group of communities with great variations in inter-connectivity as a single homogeneous population.

    Great … let’s see your peer reviewed comparison between nursing homes and those dangerous golf courses that got closed down. Links would be appreciated … thanks in advance.

    After that we can discuss comparative statistics regarding paddle boarders, surfers, tennis players, L-plate drivers, people who go fishing miles from anywhere while standing all on their own, people who mow the lawn at their own holiday homes with no one around … you know those troublemakers. Crank out all of the peer reviewed material demonstrating how those people were responsible for those nursing home deaths.

    By all means why not show me your double blind trials where the “social distancing” strategy was fully tested, in a scientific manner of course … no pseudo science round here … I’m sure you have all of this reference material close at hand. Post away.

  49. notafan

    Ellen

    Not making myself plain.

    I was only referring to the nursing home deaths rate because of late adoption of ppe measures in nursing homes.

    Not mandated til 1 April.

  50. egg_

    The Victorian Notaflu blog bleaters were all foaming at the mouth about the beer bug pre lockdown.
    Now all conveniently swept under the carpet in wise hindsight, no doubt.
    But da curve!!!
    Any significant upswing will have the Nacies bleating again, no doubt.

    CAGW MkII Global Apocalypse strikes at the soft underbelly of the Wingnuts.

  51. egg_

    The so called shutdown will soon be a small blip on the road to prosperity

    Is this Australia’s biggest imbecile?
    Gotta be a parody account.

  52. Crossie

    Great … let’s see your peer reviewed comparison between nursing homes and those dangerous golf courses that got closed down. Links would be appreciated … thanks in advance.

    After that we can discuss comparative statistics regarding paddle boarders, surfers, tennis players, L-plate drivers, people who go fishing miles from anywhere while standing all on their own, people who mow the lawn at their own holiday homes with no one around … you know those troublemakers. Crank out all of the peer reviewed material demonstrating how those people were responsible for those nursing home deaths.

    Tel, isn’t it amazing how it’s those professionals who knew what they were doing that actually spread the deadly virus from the Ruby Princess to Newmarch House? We amateurs were actually much better at this caper even if it cost us our livelihoods while the well paid NSW Health staff can just shrug it off or cry at an inquiry when the heat gets too much.

    A lot of people have been paying attention while confined to their homes and will get their revenge at the next election, state and federal. I hope the minor parties get their act together and run candidates in every electorate.

  53. egg_

    The so called “Lockdown” obviously never stopped the virus from spreading because it turned up in nursing homes long after everyone was officially under house arrest.

    Nailed it.

  54. egg_

    You hear that fear leads to irrationality, but to see it so plainly before you in those you once considered rational is gobsmacking.

    Lockdown was an irrational fear driven exercise.

  55. Leo G

    You can come up with any explanation you like, but if all that’s so well know, why did the government policy still fail those people?

    Our governments’ expert advisors regarded each Australian as having a uniform risk of contracting the virus and of infecting another.
    Moreover, the timing of the lockdown was most peculiar. The new cases were overwhelmingly associated with enclave outbreaks with none leading to exponential rates of infection outside those enclaves. There was no conclusive evidence that the threshold of a wider epidemic had been reached.
    I doubt that the lockdown significantly contributed to the “flattening of the curve” or to the reduction in new cases across the country.
    The lockdown was unwarranted.

  56. egg_

    I think there are already regional versions of this virus

    IIRC we have an earlier strain, as does the US and Ch ina, whereas the EU has a later strain.

    Do you hear the local Biology cranks going on about that – the Vaxers, etc.?

  57. egg_

    The child care stayed open based on the weird and unscientific belief that children cannot pass on this virus (every parent will tell you that’s crap).

    Do you think our elites, with Au pairs like the Greens, wants the kids around their feet?

    Voodoo Medicine says Childcare Centres are AOK, Virgil!

  58. Chris M

    Wuhan virus herd immunity in Sweden remains all theoretical at this stage with little to back it up, not unlike the global warming hypothesis that is pushed by globalists.

    How many of the population have antibodies? How long do the antibodies last and how much protection do they provide against second infection? How many virus strains are there and which do they protect against?

    Meanwhile… if they can knock out an effective Wuhan vaccine in short time what not also for TB, Malaria, Dengue and a bunch of other much more serious viral and parasitic diseases?

  59. Matt

    “A Danish study released earlier this week revealed that Danish consumers in lockdown conditions similar to those in Australia and elsewhere around the world reduced their spending by 29 per cent. In Sweden with no mandated lockdown, it was 25 per cent.
    Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, provided two possible scenarios for the country’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year, based on two models for the extent of the pandemic, one with recovery commencing in the third quarter, the other with the effects of the pandemic continuing into 2021.

    In the first scenario, gross domestic product is predicted to contract by 6.9 per cent in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6 per cent in 2021. In a more negative prediction Sweden’s GDP could contract by 9.7 per cent with recovery limping along at 1.7 per cent in 2021.

    The forecasts in Denmark from Danish Financial Institution, De Økonomiske Råd adopted the same two scenario approach, one with the affects of the pandemic easing this year forecasting a 3.5 per cent decline in GDP in 2020, the other more gloomy scenario, a 5.5 per cent decline.

    On these figures, it would seem Sweden has taken all the risks for no economic benefit.”

  60. Matt

    “A Danish study released earlier this week revealed that Danish consumers in lockdown conditions similar to those in Australia and elsewhere around the world reduced their spending by 29 per cent. In Sweden with no mandated lockdown, it was 25 per cent.

    Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, provided two possible scenarios for the country’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year, based on two models for the extent of the pandemic, one with recovery commencing in the third quarter, the other with the effects of the pandemic continuing into 2021.

    In the first scenario, gross domestic product is predicted to contract by 6.9 per cent in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6 per cent in 2021. In a more negative prediction Sweden’s GDP could contract by 9.7 per cent with recovery limping along at 1.7 per cent in 2021.

    The forecasts in Denmark from Danish Financial Institution, De Okonomiske Rad adopted the same two scenario approach, one with the affects of the pandemic easing this year forecasting a 3.5 per cent decline in GDP in 2020, the other more gloomy scenario, a 5.5 per cent decline.

    On these figures, it would seem Sweden has taken all the risks for no economic benefit.”

  61. Tel

    The lockdown was unwarranted.

    I think I must have misunderstood you earlier … it appears we are in furious agreement.

    I apologise if I came off the wrong way on that. This hasn’t been an easy time for any of us I’m sure.

  62. Crossie

    I doubt that the lockdown significantly contributed to the “flattening of the curve” or to the reduction in new cases across the country.
    The lockdown was unwarranted.

    Closing the borders flattened the curve which means that we could have continued with all other activities except international travel provided that we quarantines the cruise ship passengers and later plane arrivals. Instead we committed economic suicide.

  63. Leo G

    I apologise if I came off the wrong way on that.

    No, you did not “come off the wrong way”- I understood that we were in accord on those points and merely wanted to assure you of the fact.
    The government response to the CV-19 was belated, for a time barely adequate, but checked the various outbreaks and successfully prevented dispersal of the infection into the general community. The lockdown achieved none of that and came at an enormous cost.
    It is likely that there will be further outbreaks and there will be an increasing risk of a genuine epidemic in Australia, with that risk increasing in a similar pattern to annual seasonal headcold and influenza epidemics. CV-19 is a far more dangerous infection.
    I believe that the most urgent and import government response is to address the failure of the advice from its epidemiology experts and particularly their unjustified faith in a thoroughly falsified epidemic model.

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