Good luck with the RE transition Dan!

The display extends from the early morning on Wed May 13 to 4am on Friday 15. The display lags and that was the end of the visible story when this post was hoisted on Sunday morning. There was next to no wind through the whole of Thursday 14 into the 15th. The source is the Fuel Mix tab on the AEMO Data Dashboard.

Looking at the live situation on the Aneroid site on Saturday morning  the Victorian windmills were providing 25.5MW – that is 1% of the installed capacity (2.45GW).  That means there was virtually no wind power in Victoria for more than 24  hours.

That comes from the Wind Energy display on the ANEROID site that is a separate entity, set up years ago by a private agency with information from the AEMO presented in a way that people could understand. That prompted the AEMO to lift their game.

Looking at the whole of SE Australia at 6am the wind was providing 9% of the electrons, in SA it was 30% at 16% capacity of their 2.1GW windfleet. Interesting! they have been overtaken by Victoria, the new wind leader in installed capacity if not in delivery when the wind fails to turn up!

Wind Information. On the side of the Wind Energy display is a map of Australia with wind velocities forcast two days hence (don’t ask) so today you can read a wind forecast for 4pm on the 18th issued by the BOM on the 16th. Yesterday a wind drought was predicted for Victoria this afternoon and it may lift somewhat on Monday. Re Gerry’s comment, I have suggested that the wind contribution should be in the regular weather reports that radio stations broadcast on the hour.

Here it is! The wind supply across the nation any time you want it. Not looking good for the South East!

Battery capacity. Yesterday I checked the Musk battery capacity to find if the figure of 20 minutes of supply from the Hornsdale windfarm was correct (and 3 to 4 minutes for the whole state of SA). As per Mark M it stores 129 MWhrs of power and can discharge at 100MW  that will last for  77 minutes.  Hornsdale it is 315MW project with 99 turbines and on the AEMO data base there are three units of 100, 100 and 112MW capacity and I think the battery is connected to Hornsdale No 2. The 20 minutes figure assumed that it maintained the flow from the three units.

Shifting to the whole of SA where the demand can reach 2GW or 2000MW the battery would last for 3.8 minutes although the demand can go below  1GW and then it would last  longer!

It is (feebly) justified as a way to cushion the transition to gas when the wind dies but the fundamental problem is the fragility of the grid caused by the injection of intermittent energy. Anyway how can you say that the transition to gas is cushioned  by maintaining a flow from a single 100MW source into a system demanding 2000MW?

BREAKING NEWS. New Zealand surprises by dropping climate change mitigation as the priority in favour of economic revival. Just as well,  their hole is deeper than ours.

 
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40 Responses to Good luck with the RE transition Dan!

  1. Hodor

    He really is not of this world.

    My son lives and works in Victoristan and I feel for him every day.

  2. Lee

    Hasn’t Dictator Dan has banned further gas exploration in, and off the coast of Victoria?
    Needless to say, a Labor government here will never agree to building another dam.
    And a new coal-fired plant is obviously out of the question.
    Morons.
    The lot of them.

  3. yarpos

    Never mind , the new Cherry Tree Hill wind factory near Seymour is opening soon. All will be well, after all the wind is always blowing somewhere isnt it?

    In other news the Vic populace was one the move today after recent easing of restrictions and a sunny Saturday. People seem to be giving Dan the middle finger and just getting on with things. In a nearby town there were about 100 motorbikes parked in the main streets with riders standing around chatting in groups.

  4. yarpos

    “Hasn’t Dictator Dan has banned further gas exploration in, and off the coast of Victoria?”

    No, up until recently off shore OK, on shore banned.

    In March (I think) that changed to onshore conventional OK also, but no fracing allowed.

  5. Rob

    “Renewable energy”, an industry that’s been in self destruct mode ever since the zealots managed to set it up.
    The end is nigh.

  6. nb

    Interesting how Dan is quite happy to display his shameless stupidity and laughable ignorance. I guess he has the Chinese communists on his side, so at least a comfortable retirement in the homeland is possible.

  7. RobK

    Not to be out done:

    The Australian Renewable Energy Agency, which is putting $1.7 million towards a $4.4 million feasibility study, says the potential market of renewable fuels – both for export and domestic use – is so big it is thinking in terms of Australia moving beyond “100 per cent renewables” to 700 per cent renewables.

    That’ll definitely be cheaper then.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/bp-looks-to-add-1-5gw-wind-and-solar-for-huge-renewable-hydrogen-project-in-w-a-45931/

  8. Nob

    yarpos
    #3455573, posted on May 16, 2020 at 9:55 pm
    “Hasn’t Dictator Dan has banned further gas exploration in, and off the coast of Victoria?”

    No, up until recently off shore OK, on shore banned.

    In March (I think) that changed to onshore conventional OK also, but no fracing allowed

    Unfortunately that’s not true, although media may have misled you to think that it is.

    He extended the ban, I mean “moratorium”, on onshore gas drilling for another two or three years but a bunch of media spun this as if the possibility of it being unbanned at the end of that ban, I mean moratorium, meant that he’s giving gas the green (coal powered) light.

    Curiously though, hi-tech extended reach 6km gas wells from onshore Victoria to offshore gas fields are being drilled as we speak.

    It makes no sense, but then anti fracking, drilling bans, promoting and squandering resources on wind and solar etc make no sense either.

    I guess we’ve all decided to shut up about it in case the activists, conspicuous by their absence at this easily accessible drilling site amid farmlands and dunes, will frighten the totalitarians of Spring Street into further repressive actions.

  9. Gerry

    These AEMO graphs with an explanation need to be printed by the Herald Sun every day as a public service much as the weather is …..or maybe an advertisement each day ? Is there a rich bloke out there ?

  10. Mark M

    How much spent?
    Australian RENEWABLE Energy Agency To Run Out Of Cash Soon

    Since 2012, the agency has invested $1.46B in 486 projects with a collective value of $5.55B.
    Breaking the investments down:
    * Solar PV: $654M
    * Grid integration: $210M
    * Solar thermal: $145M
    * Hybrid: $109M
    * Bioenergy: $105M
    * Storage – Batteries/PHES: $95M
    * Ocean: $54M
    * Geothermal: $42M
    * Hydrogen: $46M

    Renewable investment dropped by 50% in 2019 because current technology is “not fit for purpose”, as stated by the CEC.
    Watch this space.

    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/arena-renewables-funding-mb1385/

    ‘Major blow’ looms for top Sydney solar research unit as funds wither
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/major-blow-looms-for-top-sydney-solar-research-unit-as-funds-wither-20200507-p54r3j.html

    Initial operation of the Hornsdale power reserve battery storage – 2018

    page 4: The HPR battery is rated at 100 megawatts (MW) discharge and 80 MW charge, and has a storage capacity of
 129 megawatt hours (MWh).
    This capacity represents approximately 75 minutes at full discharge.

    https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Media_Centre/2018/Initial-operation-of-the-Hornsdale-Power-Reserve.pdf

  11. It’ll work out fine. Dan the Man is already getting people used to rationing, first how much you can go out and work, next it’ll be how much electricity you can get.

    Once all the elderly people have died from cold or heat (not being able to afford heating and cooling) and people become completely accustomed to the ‘New Victoristan’, the full plan will be put into effect.

    The horse and cart, horse drawn plough, peasants working in allotted plots of land will once more become the norm. All watched over by our new overlords.

  12. Up The Workers!

    Maybe, if the Victorian Legislative Assembly Chamber could be remodelled into a very large stainless steel tank, we could possibly harvest the methane they so copiously produce, but other than that, I think any strategy for renewable energy involving Dodgy Dan and his 40 thieves is, in common with everything else they ever attempt, a dead loser.

  13. Herodotus

    Australian Renewable Energy Agency, a project of The Ministry of Truth.

  14. Al

    A suggestion for the graph… include a bar showing the installed capacity. The graph would then tell a more complete story: total installed capacity of each source, how much each source was actually delivering, and how much of the total demand each source was satisfying.

    At face value, the current graph could be read as “we need more wind power capacity”.

  15. min

    At least Angus Taylor is talking about the instability problems of solar panels . He was on Peta Credlin show describing what happens when there is a surge from too much going into the grid and now with so many roof top panels there will have to be some extra cost to regulate the amount of energy at certain times of day to stop damage to grid. Firstly is there technology to correct this and secondly who will pay for it ? Whoever it will still put up energy prices .
    It seems although addressing this problem and also being aware of the opposite problem the unreliability during cloud cover etc no mention of the choke point. The other issue not addressed is the durability level of panels and how they are disposed of when no longer working efficiently .
    Peta brought up The Planet of The Humans however he avoided the serious issues that doco raised particularly to environmental degradation resulting from huge solar farms, the decimation of forests for biomass and the need for coal to make solar panel glass as the silicon is extracted from quartz not sand and panels are not recyclable also.

  16. Rohan

    Min, the only feasible way of controlling that safely and on a cost efficient basis, is to simply throw a relay that connects the PV output to ground.

  17. RobK

    – is so big it is thinking in terms of Australia moving beyond “100 per cent renewables” to 700 per cent renewables.
    At approximately 30%and 20% capacity factor for wind and solar, the concept of adding downstream capital expenditure to harvest intermittent opportunistic energy gluts is crazy when the cheapest source of H2 and NH4 is fossil fuels derived at present. This is an unjustifiable experiment. I expect the feasibility study will show a need for a reliance on subsidies and a price on carbon.

  18. RobK

    Firstly is there technology to correct this
    The trend is to have smarter inverters that can be controlled by the grid operator .
    It will require refits. Battery storage helps ameliorate the problem. Cost continues to creep up as commitment rises. Grid complexity and potential points of failure increase. This is not a recipe for grid robustness nor cost effectiveness.

  19. Cost continues to creep up as commitment rises.

    And the cost is borne by everyone, not just those with solar panels who reap the benefits and cause the problems.

  20. Mark M

    I think I mentioned the failed apocalypse once, but got away with it …

    ABC Four Corners is back on the green gravy train this Monday.

    They feature an interview with former Australian chief scientist Penny Sackett.

    Will they ask her if disastrous global warming is already here and it’s too late and we failed …

    Dec4, 2009: We’ve got 5 years to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/archive/news/weve-got-5-years-to-save-world-says-australias-chief-scientist-professor-penny-sackett/news-story/614a7441983b090314f05f7f705a1d5a

    Tune in for some classic climate goal post moving down the forgotten hole.

  21. Tony Tea

    It’s worth reiterating: Musk’s Big Battery is not a source of supply; like the synchronous condensers, reclosers, breakers, switchgear, prot relays, network configuration, etc., it is a network stability device.

  22. It’s worth reiterating: Musk’s Big Battery is not a source of supply;

    No! It’s a solar generator! Just have a look at how all this climate crap has changed language and the meaning of products: https://www.climatecounts.org/solar/solar-generators/. Suddenly a battery has become a generator.

  23. Diogenes

    “Hasn’t Dictator Dan has banned further gas exploration in, and off the coast of Victoria?”

    On the NBN news last night thrre was a story about the knuckleheads trying to ban offshore from Nobbies in Newcastle to Manly. Last year they were protesting tbe seismographic testing claiming there would be mass whale & dolphin beachings and massive fish kills and massive disruption to those living near the coast. I am 1km as the crow flies from the ocean, and work about 5k, a friend is literally 3 houses away to the beach.

    Our houses are collapsing, and my students have been distressed by the whales, dolphins and dead fish they see on the beach. Oh wait!

  24. Rafe Champion

    At 11 the Victorian windmills were sucking energy out of the grid to maintain onboard control systems and maybe to keep them turning so they look useful. Not a real lot of energy, but not a great look if you are planning to run the state on piss and wind.

  25. incoherent rambler

    Min, the only feasible way of controlling that safely and on a cost efficient basis, is to simply throw a relay that connects the PV output to ground.

    Think of the worms!

  26. At 11 the Victorian windmills were sucking energy out of the grid to maintain onboard control systems and maybe to keep them turning so they look useful. Not a real lot of energy, but not a great look if you are planning to run the state on piss and wind

    Not fit for purpose.
    Works…sometimes…
    When they do work, they work at less than notional capacity.
    The ‘fuel’ that supplies these these things is regularly not available, or in short supply.

    But…it’s cheap…and getting cheaper…cause sunshine and breezes are free!!!

    This con is the greatest scam in history.

  27. Nighthawk the Elder

    incoherent rambler
    #3456007, posted on May 17, 2020 at 11:30 am

    …Think of the worms!

    Made me think of that B rate 70’s movie, “Squirm” and what happens when too many electrons meet ground.

  28. NoFixedAddress

    Rohan
    #3455867, posted on May 17, 2020 at 8:39 am

    Min, the only feasible way of controlling that safely and on a cost efficient basis, is to simply throw a relay that connects the PV output to ground.

    It would be far cheaper if they did that for the output of all wind and solar “farms” as well.

  29. Professor Fred Lenin

    Renewables will work , the politicians are going to legistlate to control wind and sunshine to comply with our needs , strong regualtion will ensure constant clean supply ,providing 54 million green jobs in Australia alone .All will be better for the world when the postponed Critical Urgent Emergency Climate Holocaust Crisis Conference that was postponed due to the Chinese Virus itwill beheld next year ,it deprived 30,000 clever scientific taxpayer employed experts and their families of a free all expenses paid holiday in Glasgow Scotland ,and putting off the end of humanity for a year.
    Scotland has 2,000 covid deaths out of 5.5 million people Australia has 98 out of 23million ?
    Reluctantly you have to say our polliemuppets got something right for a change.

  30. Maybe Australia can learn a few tricks from the Maldives, a country that has figured out how to use climate change for financial gain.
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/14/maldives-sinking/

  31. Tel

    Maybe Australia can learn a few tricks from the Maldives …

    If we learned about their tricks, the first thing we would do is stop handing over our money.

  32. IRFM

    Here is a list of items missing from green electorates/councils:
    abattoirs
    power stations all classes
    farms both cropping and grazing
    grower shed
    piggeries
    stables
    mines – all classes
    smelters
    other mineral processing facilities
    quarries
    solar farms
    wind farms
    airports
    ports
    truck stops
    logging
    orchards
    You get the picture?

  33. Here is a list of items missing from green electorates/councils:

    Not quite accurate, but pretty close. We have many of those industries listed, but they are slowly disappearing. Our electorate may not be Green, but our council most certainly is and we are getting more and more Greens voting migrants from the Mornington Peninsular and similar every year.

  34. RobK

    Rafe,
    Anyway how can you say that the transition to gas is cushioned by maintaining a flow from a single 100MW source into a system demanding 2000MW?
    The Musk battery inSA is really only a buffering for the associated wind turbines. The grid is sensitive to many things including the rate of change of loads/supply. Control gear can only put up with so much. The batteries do buffer this rate of change to a useful extent but at ahigh price. When SA is islanded the operator takes charge of the batteries and runs them at half charge to improve buffering but this means it can’t skim profit by peak shaving to full capacity. It’s expensive hardware, short lived if constantly pushed. It makes money because FCAS penalties are high due to RE penetration. The cycle is never ending.

  35. yarpos

    “My son lives and works in Victoristan and I feel for him every day.”

    A tad dramatic, you really think he suffers on a day to day basis do you ? please elaborate where is this Oz utopia where you think he would be materially better off? Every State has its issues , which wax and wane over time.

  36. yarpos

    “Renewables will work , the politicians are going to legistlate to control wind and sunshine to comply with our needs , strong regualtion will ensure constant clean supply ,providing 54 million green jobs in Australia alone .All will be better for the world when the postponed Critical Urgent Emergency Climate Holocaust Crisis Conference that was postponed due to the Chinese Virus itwill beheld next year ,it deprived 30,000 clever scientific taxpayer employed experts and their families of a free all expenses paid holiday in Glasgow Scotland ,and putting off the end of humanity for a year.
    Scotland has 2,000 covid deaths out of 5.5 million people Australia has 98 out of 23million ?
    Reluctantly you have to say our polliemuppets got something right for a change.”

    I heard, or was it hoped? that the next Climate Conference would be in Wuhan.

  37. Lutz

    https://earth.nullschool.net also shows wind everywhere including you can click on wind speed.

  38. OldOzzie

    Mexican Government Moves to Tighten Grip on Electricity Market

    New rules affecting renewable-power projects are criticized for favoring the country’s state-owned utility

    MEXICO CITY—The Mexican government moved to seize more control of the country’s electricity market, affecting dozens of renewable-energy projects worth more than $6 billion at the same time the country faces a sharp recession because of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Energy companies and local industry groups said new rules for operation of the power grid, published late Friday, favor Mexico’s state-owned electricity utility over private developers and dial back the opening of the power market to foreign investors.

    The drop in demand caused by coronavirus lockdowns had raised the need for a more “reliable and continuous” power supply, the Energy Ministry said on Saturday. Electricity-grid operator Cenace, at the ministry’s request, halted testing of solar and wind plants waiting to go into operation.

    The measures “jeopardize the operation and continuity of renewable energy projects of Canadian companies in Mexico,” Canada’s ambassador-designate to Mexico said in a letter to Rocío Nahle, Mexico’s energy minister.

    The European Union’s chargé d’affaires said the new rules suspend the startup of renewable-power plants and limit generation by wind and solar plants already in operation.

    The suspension affects 44 renewable projects scheduled to go into commercial operation this year and in 2021, including several under construction, representing investments of around $6.4 billion.

    “What we’re starting to see everywhere is that they’re starting to limit the operation of renewable technologies,” said Julio Valle, director of the Mexican wind-power association Amdee.

    The rules mark the latest move by Mexico’s leftist government discouraging investment and creating tension with the private sector. Since taking office in 2018, nationalist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has canceled the construction of a new airport for the nation’s capital and suspended the development of a large brewery by a U.S. firm. He also froze new private investment in the energy sector, including the suspension of oil-block auctions.

    In the electricity sector, his government has moved more aggressively. It canceled a planned auction for the purchase of renewable energy under long-term contracts and renegotiated natural-gas pipeline contracts with private developers, narrowly avoiding a dispute in international courts.

    Late last year, the government sought to grant clean-energy certificates to Mexico’s state utility for its existing hydroelectricity plants, threatening to wipe out the value of the certificates that were designed to help finance the construction of new clean-energy capacity.

    “This generates a negative atmosphere for domestic and foreign private investment by creating legal uncertainty and inhibiting competition at a time when the country is going through a deep recession,” the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives said Saturday of the new rules. The private-sector group predicts Mexico’s economy will contract 8% this year because of the pandemic.

    The government’s actions could spark legal action, including international arbitration, said Rodolfo Rueda, an attorney with Thompson & Knight LLP who advises companies on the Mexican electricity market. A number of companies are seeking court injunctions against the suspension of tests for renewable plants, he added.

    A spokeswoman for Ms. Nahle, the energy minister, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    The rules also allow the grid operator to nominate certain power plants over others to supply the grid with electricity, using reliability as the criterion over cost.

    Typically, when demand for electricity falls, utilities buy as much power as they can from generators with the lowest marginal costs, which includes solar, wind, hydroelectricity and other renewable sources.

    Mexico’s state utility, the Federal Electricity Commission, or CFE, doesn’t operate significant wind or solar facilities and relies primarily on power plants that use natural gas and heavy fuel oil to generate electricity, although it has large hydroelectric stations and some geothermal plants.

    Private power-generation companies say the rule changes aim to put more market share in the hands of the CFE. Mexico has had a surplus of heavy fuel oil since the beginning of this year, when international rules banning pollutants reduced demand for the oil from the shipping industry, which had used it in bunker fuel for large container ships.

    César Hernández, head of the commission on regulatory improvement and one of the architects of the power-sector overhaul that allowed foreign and private investment in the electricity market, resigned Friday after the Energy Ministry requested a waiver from the commission to publish the new rules without a public consultation. Mr. Hernández couldn’t be reached for comment.

    Mexico’s largest private-sector organization, CCE, and the American Chamber Mexico said the rules were published in “flagrant violation of the constitutional and legal framework” and called for them to be withdrawn.

    “They not only discriminate against renewable energy, but also allow authorities to artificially raise the cost of generation in the country and displace any private-sector generation project,” the groups said in a joint statement.

    The North American Development Bank, a binational lender run by the governments of the U.S. and Mexico that uses taxpayer funds to invest in infrastructure projects in the two countries, has made loans of about $380 million for Mexican renewable projects.

    They include a $100 million loan to a solar-generation project being developed by Ienova, the Mexican unit of Sempra Energy.

    “We believe that the Cenace agreement was targeting renewables, so that you are not injecting cheap private energy into the system and so that the shortfall in energy will be made up for by the heavy fuel oil plants that CFE runs,” said the chief executive of a power-generation company with major renewable projects in Mexico.

    The executive called the new rules “a killer for the energy reform” of 2014. “Trust in Mexico’s energy market is being eroded completely,” he said.

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