JP Morgan study demolishes virus lockdown voodoo

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51 Responses to JP Morgan study demolishes virus lockdown voodoo

  1. egg_

    Bombshell Study Shows COVID Infection Rates Declining In States That Lifted Lockdowns.

    Like Bill Nighy’s line in “Their Finest”, Voodoo pandemic CMOs “let death win”.

  2. Bad Samaritan

    Again: what kinda dope would be opening a new business in the “non-essential” economy after this recent episode? It was my first experience with national socialism (had plenty with the international version, back in the day) and I now hope I’ll be outta here before my next one.

    This weekend is extra cold, so if two 97 year-old great-grandmothers who’ve been on fifteen different medications for these past thirty years should die of some ailment….well, it’s back into lockdown. And if three kids graze their knees playing street-cricket? Back into nation-wide lockdown…for sure.. What if a shopping trolley dents a sedan over at Coles’ carpark? Everybody back into their domestic quarters until the danger passes; that’s what!

    Ok, so we are now told by JPM that locking aged relatives in with their much-more-socially-active younger relatives could’ve caused those older codgers to be infected by the younger ones….and not the other way around. And that this was riskier for the older codgers than first thought (but only “first thought” by experts and their suck-hole leftist followers) We are also now surprisingly made aware that parks and forests and oceans having people out and about in and on them are not so confined as a dwelling with the same people in or on it.

    Sure this is stunning to learn, but that’s how it’s always been with sciencey stuff. Nothing ever is the way it appears, eh?

  3. Sydney Boy

    The vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates after national lockdowns were lifted.

    And your conclusion is

    Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic

    ?

    Bullshit. You are measuring two different things. Look at the difference in pandemic rates between countries with a lockdown (ie. Australia) and countries without a lockdown (ie. the UK). Or even in the same area (Finland vs Sweden).

    The economic downturn is a consequence of the lockdowns, but to claim the lockdown did not alter the course of the pandemic is just ridiculous.

  4. Mark M

    Can you imagine how many lives would have been saved had our leaders spent even half the time, capital, and manpower on protecting the most vulnerable among us as they did trying to keep the healthy welded up inside?

  5. Sydney Boy if that was true then why is the death rate so low even with all of the fraudulent “COVID 19” deaths?

    Corona virus ended up being a lie to try to make Donald Trump look bad, just like poundmetoo.

    We had no lockdowns for SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Zika or Ebola.

    Why did this disease response turn from *herd immunity* to eradication?

    Who died of it in Australia? How do we know for certain it was the putative cause of death; compared to other comorbidities band serology post mortem?

    What Mark M suggests is correct.

    Instead we had plod bullying healthy young people for eating a kebab alone on a park bench somewhere.

    We were going to have a recession anyway. Look at CB support of retail banks and money supply last September. We had rising unemployment before the lockdown anyway.

    Perhaps not this bad, but downturn had already started.

    Deaths by suicide and poorer health outcomes were not even considered. Neil Ferguson’s crazy GIGO snake oil and ignoring the constitution became fashionable.

  6. egg_

    trying to keep the healthy wealthy welded up inside

    FTFY.

  7. egg_

    Look at the difference in pandemic rates between countries with a lockdown… and countries without a lockdown… Finland vs Sweden.

    Muz zo populations?
    Only the sh1thole suburbs in Sweden are suffering.
    What’s the sh1thole factor in the worst case countries globally?
    Ex sh1thole care workers in Aged Care Homes in the West?

  8. Sydney Boy

    Only the sh1thole suburbs in Sweden are suffering.

    Egg, I’ve not seen any breakdown of infections or deaths by suburb or postcode in Sweden. The country with the highest infection rate by population (ignoring the tiny ones) is Spain. Does Spain have a massive moozly population? I don’t think so. France has a lower infection rate than Sweden, and we all know about their moozly issues.

    Regardless, the conclusion of the article that

    Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic

    is patently wrong.

  9. struth

    Still claiming covid 1984 propaganda regarding death rates as facts around here?

  10. Regardless, the conclusion of the article that

    Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic

    is patently wrong.

    Is patently wrong.

  11. Sydney Boy

    Countries that locked down have far lower infection and death rates than those that didn’t.

    All the data points to that.

    But there are still a few dickheads who think they know better.

  12. No it doesn’t.

    Calling someone a dickhead isn’t an argument either.

    You just ignore any questions or criticism anyway, you may as well yell your side of the debate from a rooftop with a megaphone.

  13. Matt

    Let’s check in on Sweden shall we:
    ‘Sweden is suffering the highest COVID-19 death rate in Europe, raising pressure on the government to abandon its soft approach and impose a lockdown of the kind that has worked elsewhere. While Sweden was less affected than Britain, Spain and Italy earlier in the epidemic, figures for the past week showed that its deaths per capita have overtaken every other country in Europe, according to Our World In Data, an online research site based in Oxford. Sweden averaged 6.25 deaths a day per million people over the past week. Britain averaged 5.75 deaths a day per million, Belgium 4.6, France 3.49, and Italy 3.’
    And how’s that herd immunity going:
    ‘A Swedish study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholmers developed COVID-19 antibodies by late April, which could fuel concern that a decision not to lock down Sweden against the pandemic may bring little herd immunity in the near future. ‘

  14. Bad Samaritan

    Sydney Boy (7.26am). I’m sure you’re genuine; just not looking closely enough….

    While Lombardy, up near the Alps, was covered in snow, Sicily was a balmy 12 degrees at night; the former running at about 600 deaths per million while the latter is on about 50; both still “Italy” but somehow different. In Paris and Madrid where it was likewise freezing with 600+ deaths per million, in sunny Corsica and Murcia it was less than a tenth those rates. Greece, warmest of the lot; 16 per million.
    Same in the US. Mass death in freezing NY, and very low in Florida…while very very low in Hawaii.

    Ok, so a lockdown worked equally well in Lombardy as it did in Sicily? Equally well in Madrid as in Andalusia? Hmmmm. you are too honest to claim that….so back to Oz….

    Australia was hot in Feb/Mar/April….not just warm. CV never had any chance of serious consequences here, and there was plenty of time to think it through, but they all panicked instead. That’s why they are all f*ckwits who ordered, and went along, with the lockdowns.

    You get it now don’t you?

  15. So Matt how many Swedes died that weren’t old, did not have comorbidities or were not Muslim enclaves?

    Please check the data again.

  16. So Matt how many Swedes died that weren’t old, did not have comorbidities or were not *middle-eastern* enclaves?

    Please check the data again.

  17. Sydney Boy

    Sydney Boy if that was true then why is the death rate so low even with all of the fraudulent “COVID 19” deaths?

    Death rate from what? The lockdown and social distancing will see far fewer infections and deaths from whole bunch of communicable diseases, including the annual flu. It already looks like being the lowest flu season in decades. Add to that less road deaths, less Friday night drunken punch-ups, and less sport and adventure accidents and the hospital emergency departments are quiet. NO – that doesn’t mean I think those things should be banned to wrap everyone in cotton wool.

    Corona virus ended up being a lie to try to make Donald Trump look bad, just like poundmetoo.

    So the Corona Virus is a lie to make Trump look bad? Seriously?

    We had no lockdowns for SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Zika or Ebola.

    Zika and Ebola are very different. They both kill their hosts very quickly and very obviously; which makes transmission far and wide very difficult. Swine Flu is an influenza. We already have a level of immunity from the annual flu shot, and the anti-viral treatments for that. SARS, MERS, and the new SARS-CoV-2 are Corona Viruses which are different. Australia didn’t lock down for either, but Taiwan locked down for SARS in 2003. Swine flu was estimated to cause over 10,000 deaths in the US (after coming out of Mexico).

    Why did this disease response turn from *herd immunity* to eradication?

    Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

    Who died of it in Australia? How do we know for certain it was the putative cause of death; compared to other comorbidities band serology post mortem?

    As far as I am aware, Australia has only has 3 deaths under the age of 60. Are people with co-morbidities more likely to die when their body is compromised with the Corona Virus? Yes. Of either. Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

    Instead we had plod bullying healthy young people for eating a kebab alone on a park bench somewhere.

    Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

    We were going to have a recession anyway. Look at CB support of retail banks and money supply last September. We had rising unemployment before the lockdown anyway.

    Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

    Deaths by suicide and poorer health outcomes were not even considered. Neil Ferguson’s crazy GIGO snake oil and ignoring the constitution became fashionable.

    Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

  18. egg_

    Why are there so many coronavirus cases in Stockholm’s northern suburbs?

    New statistics by Stockholm health authorities reveal how the coronavirus outbreak appears to be hitting immigrant communities in the city’s suburbs the hardest.

  19. Matt

    Legalise Sedition – I must have missed the memo where some lives are expendable.

  20. Sydney Boy

    Bad Samaritan (7:50am) – as you have identified – it’s multifactorial.

    Lower population density (many live in houses rather than high rises), distances between our cities, good general healthcare and hygiene, relatively young population, generally warm climate, good nutrition (well, good available nutrition anyway), and good vitamin C & D have all contributed to low infection rates, severity of symptoms, and low death rates in Australia.

    But then also look at South Korea and Japan. Both high density, cold, and with old populations. And low rates. It’s obviously not just the weather.

  21. As far as I am aware, Australia has only has 3 deaths under the age of 60. Are people with co-morbidities more likely to die when their body is compromised with the Corona Virus? Yes. Of either. Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

    So the cost of this being prevented would have been an even worse recession than now – the biggest layoffs we have seen since the Great Depression.

    To prevent these deaths the cost would have been even greater.

    Until you can answer regarding the validity of the causes of death, we cannot say there are any lives saved. The data is severely compromised.

  22. So now Matt is saying we should live hand to mouth forever so “lives can be saved”.

    This is just pure economic illiteracy.

    Prosperity is the only reason why we can afford to save lives in the first instance.

  23. Sydney Boy

    So the cost of this being prevented would have been an even worse recession than now – the biggest layoffs we have seen since the Great Depression. To prevent these deaths the cost would have been even greater.

    Does that have anything to do with the claim that “lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic”? No.

  24. Matt

    There is a reasonably normal distribution of cases in Sweden with a peak at age 50-59 years, with similar numbers in 20-49 years as 60-90 years.

  25. mareeS

    The virus thing is beyond boring now. We pay lip service, nominally observe the rules, no infectious behaviour, but really it has gotten way beyond.

    Yesterday we had our first Friday lunch ou at a favourite restaurant in two months. Can you believe that? Friday lunch at the end of the week used to be sacrosanct. Who jammed down these laws?

  26. You never adequately addressed the veracity of the cause of death data Sydney Boy.

  27. Diogenes

    Matt,
    look up the terms QALY and value of life. Iirc in northern Italy , when the hospitals were overwhelmed, some lives were valued more. If you were over 60 and needed a respirator, you didn’t get it.

  28. Matt

    I understand QALYs. Why did Italy have to make those decisions? Because the disease got out of control and overwhelmed the health system. Steps to reduce transmission mean that those decisions don’t have to be made (or having increased capacity in ICUs).

  29. Crossie

    mareeS
    #3461489, posted on May 23, 2020 at 8:14 am
    The virus thing is beyond boring now. We pay lip service, nominally observe the rules, no infectious behaviour, but really it has gotten way beyond.

    The checkout chick joked with me yesterday that the virus was not allowed to do it’s work in Woolies but it was more dangerous everywhere else.

  30. Crossie

    Matt
    #3461520, posted on May 23, 2020 at 8:39 am
    I understand QALYs. Why did Italy have to make those decisions? Because the disease got out of control and overwhelmed the health system. Steps to reduce transmission mean that those decisions don’t have to be made (or having increased capacity in ICUs).

    Italy had to make those decisions because they were not prepared for any sort of an outbreak. It was slipshod management that is characteristic of Italy and they ran out of luck.

  31. Because Italy has a very top heavy population structure and the death rate overall is not abnormal for them this year.

  32. notafan

    Are you sure about that dot?

  33. Yes I am sure about that.

    Italy has 640,000 or so deaths each year.

    This was a huge overreaction, simply perpetrated to make Orange Man look bad.

  34. notafan

    Well the article I linked suggests you are wrong.

    As I think Sydney boy pointed out some deaths have been prevented by the lockdown as well.

    And what about China?

    No excess deaths there either?

    I’m not disagreeing that the lockdown in Australia has been wrong, should never have gone past stage two.

    And as JC pointed out with the Georgia stats the economic ills started long before the official lockdown, closing the international borders destroyed international tourism and people were voluntarily staying away from cafes etc.

  35. flyingduk

    I just heard some pelican on my ABC detailing how every life saved was worth 4.9 million, therefore the cost of the lockdown was much less than letting the fire rage and having hundreds of thousands of deaths. Leaving out the gross overprediction of deaths by the models worldwide, who really believes the typical fatality (an 80 year old man with multiple chronic illnesses and already residing in a nursing home) is really worth next to 5 million? To even earn 5 million in a 50 year working life would mean 100k a year, and that ignores the fact that you would spend most if not all of it simply living.

    Lies, damn lies, statistics…

  36. Sydney Boy

    I’m not disagreeing that the lockdown in Australia has been wrong, should never have gone past stage two.

    I don’t think the lockdown in Australia was wrong. The borders should have been closed sooner and the Ruby Princess was a massive fail. I agree that the lockdown went too far and should be lifted more quickly than seems to be happening.

    I fail to see how the lockdown was designed to make Trump look bad.

  37. I fail to see how the lockdown was designed to make Trump look bad.

    You’re joking aren’t you?

  38. Matt

    All cause mortality peaked at 21 z-scores above baseline in Italy – for comparison 2017 influenza was peaked at 11 z-scores above baseline.

  39. Leo G

    The economic downturn is a consequence of the lockdowns, but to claim the lockdown did not alter the course of the pandemic is just ridiculous.

    I believe the study is suggesting that ending the lockdown altered the course of the epidemic in the regions studied, but that the lockdown itself did not appear to significantly alter the course.

  40. rickw

    Surprise me.

    Modelling of experts found to be BS yet again.

  41. Sydney Boy

    I fail to see how the lockdown was designed to make Trump look bad.
    You’re joking aren’t you?

    Please explain how the lockdown in Italy (or even Australia) was designed to make Trump look bad.

  42. You don’t think there is such a thing a virtue signalling and an international political elite? Or that the media applied pressure when almost none of them are numerate or scientifically literate?

    Really, smell the zeitgeist. There was no lock down with prior “pandemics”.

  43. Rossini

    Why are we picking on Dan the Red man today?
    The lock down should be lifted by Christmas.

  44. Infidel Tiger King

    The lockdown had zero effect in Australia, closing the border did.

    Same reason Taiwan has had the same results as us without a lockdown. They closed the border and refused access to those bat scoffing degenerates.

    Being an island nation and refusing access to Chicoms saved us.

  45. egg_

    The lockdown had zero effect in Australia

    Cherrypicking the worst case overseas scenarios won’t change that fact.

  46. Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic and are now destroying millions of livelihoods worldwide, JP Morgan study claims.

    The least surprising news since we heard a few days ago that the Dems have been rigging elections which was the least surprising news since we learned Obama was at the centre of the Trump spying which was the least surprising news that Dicktator Dan is in bed with the CCP which was the least surprising news since…well this could go on forever.

    Tomorrow a report will reveal the surprising news that hitting yourself in the head with a claw hammer may cause severe injury or even death.

  47. Tim Neilson

    There is a reasonably normal distribution of cases in Sweden with a peak at age 50-59 years, with similar numbers in 20-49 years as 60-90 years.

    OK, but does that matter? Aren’t the deaths still typically someone who’s older than the average life expectancy and suffering at least one serious comorbidity?

  48. Leo G

    OK, but does that matter? Aren’t the deaths still typically someone who’s older than the average life expectancy and suffering at least one serious comorbidity?

    The average life expectancy at birth of Australians in 2018 was about 91 years (correcting for obsolete-data error). The median age of CV-19 confirmed cases is 44 years, median age of those who die with the disease is 74 years (median age of those where the primary cause of death is CV-19 has not been reported but would be less than 74 years).

  49. Crossie

    Being an island nation and refusing access to Chicoms saved us.

    University VCs are nagging ScoMo that he must let Chinese students back in so they can pretend to teach them while they wait for permanent residency.

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