The new epidemiology: save every Labor metropolitan seat

ALLYSON Horn has an opinion piece this morning at ABC Online in which she argues Annastacia Palaszczuk will reap political dividends by keeping Queensland closed – largely because of the Sunshine State’s traditional hostility to bossy southerners. Death, disease and science don’t get much of a look-in, apart from a boilerplate reference to the Premier’s reliance on “medical advice.” The impartiality of that advice can be guessed at: CHO Jeannette Young gave convenient ‘advice’ on a quadrennial local council election, then school closures she later confessed were merely symbolic. Nobody believes Young is inclined to proffer advice at variance with the electoral strategy of the Labor government.

Horn’s is an old-fashioned take on the border brawl and one rooted more in mythology than historicity anyway. It evokes the Bjelke-Petersen era of 1968-1987 when the Country/National Party stoked loathing for Canberra or Sydney when it was considered useful. Every state and territory leader has played the same game since 1901. It only worked at the psephological margins of country and regional Queensland, not so much in the south-east corner. That’s why Sir Joh needed a gerrymander to win.

Now the reverse is true: the lockdown has hard support in the big smoke – with its army of Labor-loyal public servants and teetering-on-Greens NPCs – but is either a vague irrelevance or a red hot commercial hindrance in the bush and provincial cities. Horn goes on to describe Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington’s openness to openness, border-wise, as “party politics returning” and a betrayal of “unity politics.” That’s right after the ABC’s state political reporter hailed Palaszczuk as the new divide-and-conquer Joh. As Hendo himself might ask, can you bear it? For the record, I don’t believe for a moment the Premier will persist with a closed border until September. This is a two-phased operation: lockdown jingoism for now, a royal gifting of liberation closer to polling day.

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26 Responses to The new epidemiology: save every Labor metropolitan seat

  1. Iain Russell

    The Toads deserve The Czook like the Mexicans deserve the Dan Man. Pox.

  2. Neil

    That’s why Sir Joh needed a gerrymander to win

    Not sure that is totally true. Well i guess it is true.

    I was told the gerrymander was started by Labor to favor Labor.

    The gerrymander then started to favor the National Party but it did not help the Coalition. It favored the Nationals over the Liberals meaning the National Party got the most Cabinet seats. But it never kept Labor out of govt

    The gerrymander favored the Nationals over the Liberals. In 1986 Joh got 39% of the vote and the Liberals 16% so he won outright but the Nationals got 5x more seats than the Liberals

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Queensland_state_election

  3. C.L.

    I was told the gerrymander was started by Labor to favor Labor.

    Yes, that’s true. Ned Hanlon’s government inaugurated it in the 1940s.

  4. Ed Case

    It only worked at the psephological margins of country and regional Queensland, not so much in the south-east corner. That’s why Sir Joh needed a gerrymander to win.

    The Gerrymander never stopped Labor winning between 1957-’89, what stopped them was being hopelessly divided, always broke, and not being able to get anywhere near 50% of the vote.
    Labor hasn’t had any public scandals in the last 3 years, Hanson is riding shotgun for The Chook in CQ and the SE, Katter is doing the same for Labor in NQ and Campbell Newman destroyed the LNP years ago anyway.

  5. Rockdoctor

    The old Queensland is gone except if you get out to the north, west or central regions. This rhetoric plays well there still but as for Brisbane/Gold Coast it won’t affect jack as most of the residents now have moved in from or descended from stock from SYD/MEL anyway.

    The ALP will win not because of the anti-southern line but because of the standard of the Opposition. Canavan belled the cat in my eyes the other day by running the lockdown will cost us the election line.

  6. C.L.

    It’s not the “anti-southern” line that works in greater Brisbane so much as it is the pro-lockdown line. Labor’s metro constituency loves the lockdown.

  7. Sean

    Lockdowns are a privilege of the upper-middle class

  8. 2dogs

    The LNP are still favoured to win, but I have a feeling they will require the support of the North Queensland separatist parties (KAP + NQF) to form government.

  9. candy

    The election zinger for any upcoming election in Australia state or federal or local, will be without us many hundreds of thousands of you lot would have died with no ventilators and suffocated in a bad death.

    The advertising folk have written it already.

    C19 is god’s gift to struggling political leaders.

  10. Squirrel

    “This is a two-phased operation: lockdown jingoism for now, a royal gifting of liberation closer to polling day.”

    It certainly looks like that, and there’s no doubt a hope that things will get messy south of the border, so that Aunty Anna can say “we told you”.

    ABC and other friends in the media are already pumping up the fear about a “second wave”.

  11. wal1957

    For Palachook to lose up here in Qld there would have to be an opposition to vote for.
    Has anyone seen an opposition in Qld? I haven’t.
    One Nation is likely to do well as a lot of people are p!$$ed off with both major parties.

  12. NoFixedAddress

    Good ol’ Joh.

    Them’s were the days.

    Cheap taxes on Death Duties, Cigarettes and Fuel.

    Sigh.

  13. Pro Eng

    CL clearly you are not a Queensland and do not know Qld politics.
    In the Federal elections Qld definitely turned against the ALP because 1) Qlders do not like the job killing environmentalists – if they had a choice there would only be coal fired power stations and coal seam gas turbines for peak control 2) Qlders back jobs in tourism, mines, and industry.
    Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast vote liberal or now LNP. Country Labour held a few seats in larger cities such as Rockhampton & Townsville at the last state election because of well known incumbents but these could be wiped as in the Federal elections. The leader of the LNP Deb goes from Kingaroy (J B-P country) has been doing the rounds in the country. She is a nice lady who is handy with her hands and understands farmers and smallbusiness. None of the present LNP seats in SE Qld will be lost to the socialist ALP identified by the hard left wing Trad. The Chook stood down Trad but the damage has been done. Keeping the state closed to tourism will kill any hopes for the ALP.
    I, personally, liked Campbell Newman who was one of the most technically competent parliamentarians. Both his parents were parliamentarians with his mother a minister in the Howard Government. Campbell was a Major in the Army and a qualified professional civil engineer. He had no liking for environmentalists who set out to lie about him and to destroy him as did the ALP and unions. His main fault was he wanted to do the right thing too quickly without adequate explanation. Australia and Queensland would be better with him still as premier.

  14. a reader

    Agree Pro Eng. To win a federal election the Libs/Nats need to win North and West Queensland, Western Sydney and Tasmania. A QLD election they need to win in Brisbane because they have most of the Goldie/Sunnie and rural areas already locked up

  15. Labor’s metro constituency loves the lockdown.

    The worst bugmen. Obese goofs who think horrible craft beer and GWB jokes are the epitome of culture.

    Also, voting Green is an “alternative” to “the BS in politics”.

    Dreadful people, believe me.

    […and no. I never went to a BBQ].

  16. Pro Eng
    #3462324, posted on May 23, 2020 at 9:59 pm
    CL clearly you are not a Queensland and do not know Qld politics.

    Spicy.

    I have the feeling you’re an agent in the field mining somewhere whereas Mr Lad lives in the hive of scum and bugman villany as some sort of wit and pugilist master.

  17. Sydney Boy

    Agree Pro Eng.

    The three state MPs in the Townsville area are all on the nose mainly due to their unwielding support to the party line despite the Palacechook’s inaction on youth crime.

    Now if the LNP could only come up with some worthwhile candidates …

  18. Qld sounds like a northern version of Victoristan.

  19. Ed Case

    The Liberal Party might as well not exist north of Caloundra, and they’re doing a good job of losing their North Brisbane seats to the Greens, that leaves the National Party to carry the rest of the State.
    Hanson and Katter will eat into the NP vote in the sticks, so I can’t see any way out of the woods for them.

  20. Terry Andrews

    Labor started the gerrymander, Joh refined it. Why are ABC journos allowed to write opinion pieces? 70% of Australian taxpayers don’t care and are redundant anyway as we get their opinion embedded in their version of the news.

  21. Botswana O'Hooligan

    She will probably dance back in or maybe even waltz back in because the East Coast is dotted with public service institutions and the staff have all been promised or given pay increases and of course most are Labor voters. Newman got rid of a lot of deadbeats but the plucked duck rehired many of them back as consultants or on contracts. Inland she and labor as about as popular as the pox and so Katter, PHON, Shooters and fishers, etc. will get a lot of votes that would normally go to the LNP so the LNP won’t be in a viable position to gain power and Labor will retain power by default. The demographic of Qld. has changed over the years and southerners have moved in, not a bad thing perhaps, but the old Qld. ways have gone, so has the attitude of being self sufficient, and people want the government to cater to their every need, the socialism of Victoria.

  22. Neil

    Labor started the gerrymander, Joh refined it.

    When did Joh refine the gerrymander? I have been told the gerrymander was started by Labor but for some reason started to favor Joh. But it did not favor the Coalition. It favored the Nationals over the Liberals and meant the Nationals got more MPs in Cabinet than the Liberals should have. It rarely kept Labor out of govt.

  23. Ed Case

    Back in the Forties Qld Labor strength was out in the bush, and the coastal provincial cities, the Country Party was strong in rural areas, and the Liberal Party had support in the Brisbane suburbs.
    Labor legislated to weight their 6 Western electorates compared to Brisbane electorates in 1949 otherwise a couple would have to be redistributed away due to declining population.
    The only thing that changed in the 70 years since was the collapse of the wool industry in the 1950s which saw many AWU Labor voters move away and the Country Party win those 6 seats.
    The Gerrymander never played a role in any Labor defeat between 1957 and 1986, and even if those 6 seats had been amalgamated into 3, they never would have gone close.

  24. Ed Case

    Labor is the Party of whingeing, they haven’t got anything else.
    Another one was:

    The Country Party only gets 19% of the vote yet they get 33% of the seats and they’re the Government.

    That one tied in with the Gerrymander whingeing.
    The facts were that the Country Party didn’t stand in any seats the Liberals contested, and the Liberals contested every Brisbane seat, every Ipswich, Toowoomba, Nambour, Maryborough, Bundaberg, Gladstone, Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns seat, usually unsuccessfully.
    So the Liberals were a weight on the Nationals winning more seats and by 1989 they had helped Labor to drag the Nationals down.

  25. The Gerrymander never played a role in any Labor defeat between 1957 and 1986

    Hi Moby.

  26. Neil

    The Gerrymander never played a role in any Labor defeat between 1957 and 1986

    That is what i was told. But it may have helped the Nationals over the Liberals. But as you say the Country Party did not contest every seat

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