Not that data will make any difference to the push for RE but in case anyone is interested there is ample evidence to demonstrate that the wind resources are just not there to do the business. Since 2011 Mike O’Ceirin has been collecting the AEMO numbers for the power from all the generators attached to the grid and he pulled out the episodes in a year when the delivery from the wind fleet was 10% or less of the installed capacity.
That was the case on 117 occasions and the durations ranged from one hour to 39 hours. The most interesting, or the most damaging for the prospects of the wind industry are the very low and very long episodes and there were nine (9) times when the duration was more than 24 hours and the average delivery during that time was 8% or less of installed capacity.
There were 35 episodes when the delivery was 7% or less and they all lasted five hours or more.
This means that there is no way that enough wind capacity can be installed to replace fossil fuels until some radically new storage technology turns up. Given that the sun is off duty more than half the time it can’t be taken seriously at the grid scale until the mass storage is here. If it works for people off grid, that’s great but it can’t replace conventional power at grid scale.
Recent windwatching. On Thursday evening at dinner time the wind across the NEM was delivering 3.1% of the power required. On Friday evening the number was 6%. The wind blew up from that point and by midnight it was near 20% of the lower level of supply at that time of night.Today was a roaring time for wind across the NEM, enough to warm the cockles of the heart of wind warriors with numbers over half the demand in SA, a third in Victoria and a quarter in Tasmania , though only 5% in NSW and Queensland. Local variations in the wind can be seen in SA over the last 24 hours in this chart showing the individual wind farms.
A picture from last week. Regrettably the Fuel Mix numbers lag and today we got a look at the picture for Thursday 28 and some of the day before. Wind was blowing up 3% of the power at dinnertime on Wednesday, 2% for breakfast on Thursday and 2% in the evening.
On the colours, not all the sources fit on the screen shot, wind is the blue layer on top. Natural gas is the purple layer under wind, it can reach almost 100% in SA when there is no wind (and the supply is topped up with coal power from Victoria.) Hydro is green, unlike the Anero display where it is blue. Field solar is yellow and the fuel mix does not show rooftop PV.