CV-19 update

Via Instapundit. Not to deny that it can kill you, but there are positive signs that you are unlikely to hear about from Daniel Andrews.

GOOD NEWS: UPMC doctor sees too much focus on rising COVID-19 cases, too little on declining severity and hospitalizations.

Related: Hospital patients four times less likely to die now than they were in April, Oxford study finds.

Related: Heather Mac Donald: Where Are The Deaths? “In May, Georgia was the main target of expert contempt for its allegedly premature reopening. Since then, the media have gone silent, due to the state’s truly discouraging downward daily death toll from a high of 119 on April 7, long before the reopenings, to 10 on June 24. . . . There are no crises in hospital capacity anywhere in the country. Nursing homes, meat-packing plants, and prisons remain the main sources of new infections.”

Also: Getting Realistic About The Coronavirus Death Rate.

Nearly all the studies find between 10 and 100 times the number of total infections as reported infections, with the average somewhere around 20 to 25 times.

In other words, while the CDC reports 2.34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. (CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2.34 million.)

Thus, the death rate, which would be 5.2 percent based on that 2.34 million figure, is actually more like one-20th as high — or 0.26 percent.

It can be awful in some people, but overall it’s turning out to be nowhere near as bad as we feared a few months ago. And that’s good!


Plus this.

WELL, THE PRESS WON’T SAY IT, SO YOU KIND OF HAVE TO: Seen on Facebook: “So there’s a COVID spike 3-4 weeks after the mass protests. Just saying.”

Related: Did Austin’s protests produce coronavirus spike? (Yes.)

Melbourne too, it seems.

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14 Responses to CV-19 update

  1. Up The Workers!

    Yes, but Dr. Dodgy Dan says that while 6 family members gathered under the one roof for a family meal is a criminal conspiracy deserving of $1,600.00 fines all around to pay for the Premier’s latest self-awarded massive Parliamentary pay rises, 10, 000 marching gutter-mouthed Leftard soap-phobic, fly-blown, disease-carrying, lethally stupid protesters marching cheek-by-jowl, is the pinnacle of good Socialist Health and hypocritical totalitarianism.

    The full details of what Dodgy Dan (He likes Commo Chinese!) signed us up to as part of his ultra top-secret grovelling “Bat Soup and Toad Initiative”, and at what cost to the long-suffering taxpayers of Mogadishu-By-The-Yarra, is still a matter of State Security, but his Peking Pox, the Socialist Syphilis, the Commo Cough, is now well known in the locked-down Nursing Homes and Retirement Villages around the State.

  2. Yarpos

    It has been interesting to watch the govt and MSM transitition from ICU admission and death hysteria to just simple case hysteria. They just want the public mind to fill in the blanks and infer bad outcomes. The VIC Health Wuflu update site stopped talking about the thousands of ventilators on order quite a while ago. Its been totally wiped from the site and sent down the memory hole.

  3. Annie

    Are you surprised by this?

  4. Leo G

    The VIC Health Wuflu update site stopped talking about the thousands of ventilators on order quite a while ago. Its been totally wiped from the site and sent down the memory hole.

    Also down the memory hole is the demonstrated ineffectiveness of the CovidSafe coronavirus contact retracing app (CV-19 CRApp).

    The federal government’s COVIDSafe app has not identified any close contacts of a person infected with coronavirus who had not already been found through manual contact tracing, despite being downloaded by more than 6 million Australians in two months.

  5. Tel

    GOOD NEWS: UPMC doctor sees too much focus on rising COVID-19 cases, too little on declining severity and hospitalizations.

    There’s not really rising cases, there’s more testing going on, and those tests are spread across a broader spread of people. The boosted case numbers along the US Southern border are mostly people coming up from Mexico for treatment because the US hospitals are better than Mexican hospitals. All the people who were previously delayed for some other surgery are now going to the hospitals, and of course they get tested and some of those people are positive.

  6. Lee

    And yet TV news services on an almost daily basis go into hysterics over the coronavirus, verging on “we’re all going to die.”
    Is it any wonder, the decline in public trust in the MSM with its fake news?

  7. Jonesy

    The only argument against…in Melbourne, the wrong suburbs are hosting hotspots. The marchers were all inner city dwelling green filth. The only time these vermin were diseased was when they scurred home from the northern hemisphere ski fields.

    This vector is solely the ineptness of the Victorian government to administer the quarantine hotel.

  8. Ceres

    My son is in hotspot Houston and because of his contact with 4 fellow workers who have the virus I asked him what were their symptoms. He said anyone at work with a sore throat was to be tested, so they had a sore throat and a sniffle. All of them, that was it no worse than a cold. They would be under 50.
    He is working from home for 2 weeks as a result, but no testing of him, no contact tracing. I asked about tracing and he laughed and said no way would Americans be a part of that. Going for herd immunity he said.
    So a different culture where compliance won’t work.

  9. John A

    According to this page updated daily the PDR of Viktoriastan conducted lots more tests, and lo and behold, shows lots more (relatively speaking) positive cases under investigation.

    If we compare adjacent charts of Age-Sex distribution of infected people with Age-Sex distribution of fatalities, the risk profile is very clear – the older you are, the more likely it is that if you are struck down you will be struck out, rather than recover. But that is still not clear enough until co-morbidity is properly identified. It certainly kills Diktator Dan’s argument that all families are at risk.

  10. Catcalling Inebriate

    WSJ: The U.S. recorded more than 45,000 cases Friday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The tally was significantly higher than the 39,972 cases reported Thursday, a record at the time. The previous high of 36,291 daily cases was recorded in late April.

    According to the Florida Department of Health, the state reported 9,636 cases on Saturday, up from 8,831 cases on Friday and a much lower 4,966 cases on Wednesday. The rate of positive cases has also jumped. On June 13, the rate of positive tests was at 5.36% and has steadily climbed over the past two weeks, registering a positivity rate of above 14% in the past two days.

    Texas and Florida, which had been among the last states to shut down and among the earliest to reopen, took steps to keep people at home, a challenge for a summer weekend. On Friday, Florida imposed new restrictions on bars, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott closed down bars across the state as Houston issued a stay-at-home order.

  11. Beachcomber

    As the Establishment and the ABC-Ministry of Truth ramp up the scaremongering about a “Second Wave” that will require still more economic lock-down and police state restrictions, something very important needs to be repeated over and over again, until people start to get it and so that we don’t forget it.

    COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless

    “Not to deny that it can kill you”. As can the ‘flu. There is no deadly new virus, just the typical variations of ‘flu viruses.. There is no plague or pandemic. It is an illusion, a Stalinist masquerade propped up by debased pseudo-science.

  12. PB

    So, is the virus losing its initial virulence? Is the currently infected demographic changing, with those picking it up less likely to be killed by it overall? Is herd immunity beginning to play out in the real world? Is the standard of care improving such that it can be better managed up to and including in the ICU setting?

    I’m sure the media in Victoria will ask these questions and….

    Just kidding. Get back to your mindless terror.

  13. PB

    “This vector is solely the ineptness of the Victorian government to administer the quarantine hotel.”

    If they’d managed the Hotel situation as a health care issue things may have been different, but they managed as a prison type situation, with security guards of dubious IQ and care factor. The rest was just a question of when.

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