Sally Cripps is a Professor of Statistics at the University of Sydney. TAFKAS has before today never heard of her (nor should he have expected to), but this Professor should be given more prominence in public policy debates than the current conga line of clowns the media tend to go to.
TAFKAS has not read beyond the abstract, but the paper while about epidemic forecasting can equally apply to climate forecasting and most of the risk forecasting that APRA requires for banks.
Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, looking at only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures.
Irrespective. The science is settled. The ABC says so,