Updating my guesstimates of unemployment during the COVID-19 crisis.
The ABS released unemployment data for June this morning.
So – some good news. The number of hours worked rose in June compared to May. More work was done. This is good thing.
Using the same technique as the last two months, I guesstimate the unemployment rate to be 7.55%. The last time Australia had a 7.5% unemployment rate was August 1998. All the usual caveats apply. But this is a good news story. Getting people back to work is going to be the biggest policy challenge facing Australia (and the world) over the next few years. Making sure that the hidden unemployment generated by JobKeeper doesn’t become actual unemployment is something that should be keeping all politicians up at night.