We are all windfarmers now!

We are all in it together, to coin a phrase. Since all the powers that be, state and federal, are determined to move as quickly as possible towards dependence on the wind and the sun for electricity we had better pay attention to the amount of sun and wind power that is available, day by day.

Farmers, those hardy sons and daughters of the soil who get up every day to provide our daily bread, watch the weather like hawks and so we had better watch the wind and the sun with the same intensity. You don’t need to be a Rhodes Scholar to know that the sun is not there in the early morning and the evening, but what about the wind?

Will there be enough for a hot breakfast?  Coffee on the way to work? Is the electric train running? And what about dinner this evening?

Check out the extent of the green bars in the picture below, state by state.  From the AEMO  Data Dashboard (changing every five minutes) we find at that SA is importing and they have had very light winds for 24 hours (see the Aneroid site.)

Across the nation at 5.10am.

Not looking very promising at this early hour, but lets see how it develops!

I don’t know how that happened but if you click on the link you get the picture as a full screen. That is a screen shot and this is the live  connection.

Some particularly revealing pictures can be found via the Fuel Mix tab at the top of the Data Dashboard. For some strange reason it is updated at 4am every morning and it lags so to see what the mix is today you have to wait for day or two. This picture shows the mix in SA recently that you can access today.

48 hours from 4am Sat 18 to 4am Monday 20

An attractive feature is a slider that is located at the extreme right in that shot, it can be moved to get the numbers hour by hour over the two days. It shows that the wind was contributing 37% of the power generated in the state at the time. You can see the wind is on the way down towards the low point recorded yesterday and even at that time the sum of wind and gas was inadequate and coal power was coming in from Victoria.

Memo to letter writers. Thinking about a follow up for Bar  Beach Swimmer’s remarkable conversation with an ALP staffer who was prepared to make a telephone call and then engage with a heap of ideas that violated every assumption that they would have held about RE. I was thinking about providing some more information, but not too much to swamp him/her, just enough to build on the platform built in the first conversation.

Some graphic pictures would surely help, and then the next step, what if the staffer actually looks at the source data and does his or her own windwatching! So I am going to send the windwatchers guide to every pollie in our data base, my son is looking after this, we have all the Coalition members Federal and NSW plus other parties Federal. He is coming to lunch today and we will set up the Windwatchers Anonymous group on Facebook for addicts.

All children and grandchildren should be trained and invited to join the Junior Windwatchers and give the family a report on the wind power supply at dinnertime every night!

From the comments. Tony from Oz.

Here’s two simple exercises to show you (a) the power actually required on a daily basis and (b) the power that wind actually supplies on that daily basis.
Go to the aneroid home page. (at this link)
When the page opens, scroll down a little. Now see that coloured graph there, well, that’s the Load Curve for power generation in Australia, well everything East of the WA border anyway, so 95% of it anyway, and that power generation is exactly the same as for power consumption, because you only generate what is being consumed.
Okay, here’s the (small) task for you all.
Under that graph, you see the boxes for the power generation sources.
First up. TICK the box which says Total. (a black line now appears across the top of the graph)
Now, UNTICK every other box, EXCEPT wind. (you are now left with a green colour rolling along the bottom of the graph)
Okay, the black line is what is being consumed, and the green colour is what wind power is delivering.
See the scale of the problem now.
Oh, incidentally, now hover your mouse along the graph line and find the low point of that black line.
That low point is the LOWEST that actual power consumption gets down to, not just for this day, but every day, and the year round average for that LOW POINT is 18,000MW.
That’s the lowest power consumption gets down to.
Until renewables can supply that ALL DAY EVERY DAY, they’ve got nothing.
Tony.

Liberty Quote. Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them — Ronald Reagan

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

22 Responses to We are all windfarmers now!

  1. Herodotus

    From importing the wrong migrants to destroying the economy and wrecking the power system, not to mention mismanaging health services and pandemic measures, what are politicians good for?

  2. Texas Jack

    I used to think the Liberals were only temporarily stuck in progressive animation, but when they win the supposed “climate election” and face into the economic own-goal catastrophe of the COVID cluster-#%@$# that shouldn’t go to waste, with Albanese and the ALP on the ropes what does Angus Taylor do? This Muppet is still doubling down on the policies of the Greens. FFS….

  3. This Muppet is still doubling down on the policies of the Greens.

    Like all politicians, the most important thing is ‘self’, self-preservation, self-importance, self-assurance etc.

  4. Mark M

    Here is an interest link:

    It’s good news that time-weighted average prices for Q2 2020 are down on prior years – right?

    http://www.wattclarity.com.au/articles/2020/07/q2-2020-pricereview/

    – Too much info to be summed up in a quick copy/paste quote.

  5. Rafe Champion

    The RE industry is living dangerously. On sunny and windy days the price probably falls to a point where all the return is in the subsidies and in the evening the coal and gas providers have to make their money out of increasing the retail price. Those who are into both wind and gas will laugh all the way to the bank while coal power becomes uneconomical and consumers keep paying more.
    All the windmills and solar farms will be stranded assets without subsidies and mandates.
    Meanwhile China and the developing world will forge ahead and increase the supply of plant food. Good for the real farmers anyway!

  6. RobK

    I was talking to an electrical contractor the other day regarding domestic solar. He said he’d measured upto 280 volts on a consumer’s line(the spec in WA is upto 240 v plus 10%=265v). He believes solar is responsible for mountains of prematurely wasted white goods and other electrical gadgets through burnout. Meanwhile many compliant inverters trip-out during peak solar output. This green energy push is pointless but hideously expensive in many subtle ways .

  7. Mark M

    China to build 6-8 nuclear reactors a year from 2020-2025 – report

    https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN24A0DL

  8. RobK

    We are all windfarmers now!
    Wind minions would be closer to the truth.

  9. RobK

    China to build 6-8 nuclear reactors a year from 2020-2025 – report
    We are missing out.

  10. Mark M

    How to run the National Electricity Market on 96 per cent renewables

    “Windlab has conducted a simulation of a 96% renewable national electricity market (NEM).
    It differs from other 100% renewable studies as it is based primarily on actual wind, solar and demand data from AEMO. Other studies have relied on simulated data.

    It can be seen from this plot that existing hydro is able to fill much of the gaps in days with poor wind or solar generation.

    >> Building an energy system based on “days with poor wind or solar generation” with zero evidence it prevents global warming.
    The mentally unstable are in charge:

    Stanford researchers explore the effect of [global warming] on suicide rates
    “In warmer temperatures suicide rates increase, leading to concerns about an uptick in suicides as the globe continues to warm. But researchers offer some hope if greenhouse gases get under control.”

    https://news.stanford.edu/2019/03/29/effects-climate-change-suicide-rates/

    If only the people who believe in doomsday global warming would see their doctor for an assisted suicide note, the planet would be saved.
    I can’t be any more humane than that.

  11. H B Bear

    South Australia importing electricity, so just like the GST then? I see a pattern developing.

  12. Here’s two simple exercises to show you (a) the power actually required on a daily basis and (b) the power that wind actually supplies on that daily basis.
    Go to the aneroid home page. (at this link)
    When the page opens, scroll down a little. Now see that coloured graph there, well, that’s the Load Curve for power generation in Australia, well everything East of the WA border anyway, so 95% of it anyway, and that power generation is exactly the same as for power consumption, because you only generate what is being consumed.
    Okay, here’s the (small) task for you all.
    Under that graph, you see the boxes for the power generation sources.
    First up. TICK the box which says Total. (a black line now appears across the top of the graph)
    Now, UNTICK every other box, EXCEPT wind. (you are now left with a green colour rolling along the bottom of the graph)
    Okay, the black line is what is being consumed, and the green colour is what wind power is delivering.
    See the scale of the problem now.
    Oh, incidentally, now hover your mouse along the graph line and find the low point of that black line.
    That low point is the LOWEST that actual power consumption gets down to, not just for this day, but every day, and the year round average for that LOW POINT is 18,000MW.
    That’s the lowest power consumption gets down to.
    Until renewables can supply that ALL DAY EVERY DAY, they’ve got nothing.
    Tony.

  13. RobK

    that existing hydro is able to fill much of the gaps in days with poor wind or solar generation. ”
    It’s a pity that like predicting rainfall; no-one can actually predict either the quantity or timing of next year’s wind, sunshine or river flow. That study is a risky basis for policy.

  14. Mark M

    Wait.
    Isn’t less aviation CO2 supposed to make the climate return to stability?

    “Power companies rely on accurate weather forecasts to manage the electrical grid, for example.

    “If this uncertainty goes over a threshold, it will introduce unstable voltage for the electrical grid,” Ying Chen, a senior research associate at the Lancaster Environment Center, said in a news release.
    “That could lead to a blackout, and I think this is the last thing we want to see in this pandemic.

    Forecast accuracy suffered the most across the United States, southeast China and Australia, as well as more remote regions like the Sahara Desert, Greenland and Antarctica.”

    Fallout from COVID-19 pandemic making weather forecasts less accurate

    “According to new research, weather forecasts have gotten less accurate over the course of the pandemic, as a result of the decrease in commercial airline flights.”

    https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2020/07/17/Fallout-from-COVID-19-pandemic-making-weather-forecasts-less-accurate/3861594998954/

  15. Dr Faustus

    Those who are into both wind and gas will laugh all the way to the bank while coal power becomes uneconomical and consumers keep paying more.

    Gas is the key to fabulous wealth from renewable energy.

    Gas-fired generation lets you game the market to perfection.
    Control gas, and gasless competition will be reluctant to join the renewables trough.

  16. Fin.

    Tried to make a factual comment yesterday concerning wind and solar being touted on Sunday morning’s ABC program with Ian and his caller “Alex”, but it never made it out of moderation.

  17. RobK

    Gas is the key to fabulous wealth from renewable energy.
    I’m surprised no enterprising marketer (marketeer?) hasn’t pushed a Combined Heat and Power gas fired home genset to pump DC into existing solar inverters after sunset with waste heat going into the home for winter.

  18. RobK

    Oops excuse the double negative

  19. The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) have imposed the word SCIENCE on the Trump Administration demanding climate action in the form of wind and solar.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/21/trump-vs-aaas-scientists/

  20. Herodotus

    The annual AAAS conference has been Robin 100m Williams favourite junket for about 40 years.
    Must be a thoroughly marched through institution.

  21. I just wish the grid would hurry up and collapse so we can get on with repairing it.
    Dragging the process out while the spivs make a fortune is getting a bit lame.

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