With Victoria declaring Stage 4 restrictions:
Only essential services supplying medical needs, food, power and communications will be permitted to remain open under new Stage 4 coronavirus restrictions announced by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews today
Can it be concluded that Australia is pursing a New Zealand style eradication strategy rather than a containment strategy? If this is the case, what does this mean?
This is obviously not an exhaustive list, but to TAFKAS’ thinking ….
- No significant numbers of foreign students for a while. What does this mean for universities and the language colleges and the student accommodation businesses. Education is Australia’s 2nd largest export after resources.
- No international travel for quite a while – in or out. What does this mean for those businesses and industries reliant on international tourism? Tourism is Australia’s 3rd largest export after resources. Will this hit Queensland disproportionately hard?
- Will there be a manufacturing renaissance in Australia? Is this possible with Australia’s expensive and risky energy systems. But if yes, will it be a highly capital based manufacturing platform, high on the machines, robots and computers and low on the labour?
- For how much longer will Australian governments be able to maintain current levels of spending and private sector crowding out before Australia’s credit rating is impacted thus affecting mortgage and general borrowing rates?
- Will this crisis expand to the point that superannuation is nationalised in exchange for a restructured universal pension?
- Will the Australian Federation fracture with harder border closures followed by a rethink of horizontal fiscal equalisation?
There was a brief moment that TAFKAS thought that, on a relative basis, Australia might come out of this Corona Crisis better than other nations, but he no longer thinks this.
Australia, because of perceptions of containing the disease could have been a magnet for global capital and talent. Coupled with reform that should have followed. But the light on the hill has turned out to be a couple of hobos sheltering under a tree, lighting up a Winfield Blue.