Graphs Galore

The ABC’s Digital Story Team has put together a superior ensemble of COVID graphs well worth perusing.

This graph seems to show that Victoria’s “hot-spot” lockdown (1 July) either stymied a repeat of the precipitous falling-cum-flattening seen during the so-called first wave or, at least, did nothing enduring to replicate it. Was locking people indoors, in fact, the fatal meta-cause of the stop-start second wave debacle?

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11 Responses to Graphs Galore

  1. Andre

    Second wave was always used in the past to refer to a re-emergence of a pandemic outbreak some period, up to a year, after the first. The terrible flu of 1918 did fall back considerably and looked over until a second outbreak, more deadly than the first, took hold nearly a year after. It had mutated and caused many more deaths to populations already decimated a year before..
    What seems to be happening in the COVID 19 pandemic is severe shutdowns simply sequesters the disease among closeted families/groups which then shows up as increased infection rates whenever the policy is eased. Rather than a ‘second wave’ as the breathless media keeps going on about, it is a recurrent initial wave simply interrupted by shutdowns.

  2. Roger

    Rather than a ‘second wave’ as the breathless media keeps going on about, it is a recurrent initial wave simply interrupted by shutdowns.

    The only second wave here is a second wave of lockdowns.

  3. min

    Notice the Spike on the July1st started going up when ? Looks like it fits in with BLM march on 6th June So the other thing to note is there are no numbers for the 6 people who were positive and had been to march ,the closest are the 30 attributed to H&M worker who had attended the march.

  4. OldOzzie

    From Henry Ergas post below

    How bad is covid really? (A Swedish doctor’s perspective)

    Ok, I want to preface this article by stating that it is entirely anecdotal and based on my experience working as a doctor in the emergency room of one of the big hospitals in Stockholm, Sweden, and of living as a citizen in Sweden. As many people know, Sweden is perhaps the country that has taken the most relaxed attitude of any towards the covid pandemic. Unlike other countries, Sweden never went in to complete lockdown. Non-essential businesses have remained open, people have continued to go to cafés and restaurants, children have remained in school, and very few people have bothered with face masks in public.

    Covid hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the usual things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming in to the hospital was covid. Practically everyone who was tested had covid, regardless of what the presenting symtom was. People came in with a nose bleed and they had covid. They came in with stomach pain and they had covid.

    Then, after a few months, all the covid patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative. At the peak three months back, a hundred people were dying a day of covid in Sweden, a country with a population of ten million. We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop. Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that means virtually no-one is getting infected any more. If we assume around 0.5 percent of those infected die (which I think is very generous, more on that later), then that means that three weeks back 1,000 people were getting infected per day in the whole country, which works out to a daily risk per person of getting infected of 1 in 10,000, which is miniscule. And remember, the risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected. And that was three weeks ago. Basically, covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden. After four months.

    In total covid has killed under 6,000 people in a country of ten million. A country with an annual death rate of around 100,000 people. Considering that 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

    That is why it is nonsensical to compare covid to other major pandemics, like the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people. Covid will never even come close to those numbers. And yet many countries have shut down their entire economies, stopped children going to school, and made large portions of their population unemployed in order to deal with this disease..

    Sweden ripped the metaphorical band-aid off quickly and got the epidemic over and done with in a short amount of time, while the rest of the world has chosen to try to peel the band-aid off slowly. At present that means Sweden has one of the highest total death rates in the world. But covid is over in Sweden. People have gone back to their normal lives and barely anyone is getting infected any more. I am willing to bet that the countries that have shut down completely will see rates spike when they open up. If that is the case, then there won’t have been any point in shutting down in the first place, because all those countries are going to end up with the same number of dead at the end of the day anyway. Shutting down completely in order to decrease the total number of deaths only makes sense if you are willing to stay shut down until a vaccine is available. That could take years. No country is willing to wait that long.

  5. Lee

    What seems to be happening in the COVID 19 pandemic is severe shutdowns simply sequesters the disease among closeted families/groups which then shows up as increased infection rates whenever the policy is eased.

    Which simply defeats the point of the massive overreaction and authoritarian measures taken in Victoria.
    But don’t expect an idiot like the Victorian premier to learn any lessons.

  6. Chris M

    It had mutated and caused many more deaths to populations already decimated a year before

    Thankful with Covid it has become less potent over time, so we are not seeing a repeat of the early days in Wuhan. The global death rate has been steadily dropping even as infections rise.

    Maybe not so much in Victoria currently but that is because they deliberately withhold medication for the infected, few deaths each day keep the sheep in order.

  7. Beachcomber

    I t needs to be repeated over and over again.

    The world is suffering from a massive delusion based on the belief that a test for RNA is a test for a deadly new virus, ……..


    All the newly declared “cases” and all the flash looking graphs produced by the ABC apparatchiks etc. have no scientific meaning. They are nothing more than ‘positive results” from the RNA PCR procedure. The number of “cases” (positive results) is determined entirely by the number of RNA PCR procedures carried out and arbitrary settings used for “positive result”. They are not cases of illness from infection or disease. The Andrews regime and the rest of the Establishment can manufacture new “cases” whenever needed to justify their totalitarian police-state vandalism.

    Thers is no epidemic, no pandemic, no plague. Covid-1984 has nothing to do with disease control and public health. It is entirely political, based on a mass delusion and a vicious charade by the ruling elites.

  8. John A

    Lee #3542430, posted on August 10, 2020, at 10:21 am

    What seems to be happening in the COVID 19 pandemic is severe shutdowns simply sequesters the disease among closeted families/groups which then shows up as increased infection rates whenever the policy is eased.

    Which simply defeats the point of the massive overreaction and authoritarian measures taken in Victoria.
    But don’t expect an idiot like the Victorian premier to learn any lessons.

    Indeed, as I wrote on another thread, the Premier has given contradictory answers to the question “Where are the transmissions occurring?”
    a) we don’t know for sure
    b) it’s happening at home
    c) wear masks whenever you are out of home
    d) there’s no need for masks in your own home
    e) masks are effective in reducing transmissions

    Yeah, right!

  9. Matt

    The fundamental difference between the so-called first and second waves is the source of transmission which makes that chart somewhat meaningless. The first wave in Feb/Mar was predominantly returned overseas arrivals – 70% of the ~4,500 cases in Australian by 31 March. So there was exponential transmission of the virus, there was just exponential arrivals. From the start of July in Victoria, two thirds of cases have been linked to know clusters and 20% unknown community transmission, and 0.2% overseas arrivals. The dramatic reduction in the mis-labelled growth rate of wave one had to do with shutting the borders. There is no relationship between the pattern and measures adopted in March/April and July/Aug because they are two completely different scenarios.

  10. AndreS

    This virus will continue to infect people until herd immunity is reached. Thats what viruses do and thats how the animal kingdom deals with it. Victoria second wave is a function of its past lockdown strategy.

    COVID is not the super killer virus that was predicted. That was apparent after a few weeks back in early April if you were not panicking over government spun predictions. It should be treated like the influenza virus. Isolate, support and protect the elderly and immunocompromised and the rest of the population continue as normal, taking appropriate precautions if infected.

    Instead where stuck in this irreversible government/technocrat induced dystopia where the COVID virus is a political football and virtue signalling tool that inadvertently aids and abets the anticapitalist revolution. Government officials can’t step off the COVID narrative train less they prefer to loose their jobs under pressure from deviant minorities. Is there know one out there who has enough influence and persuasive power to stop this train wreck or are we stuck in a perpetual state of COVID data induced fear.

  11. yarpos

    The graph might be interesting if we knew what it was a graph of

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