More Coronavirus Perspective

Each day our Premier Grim Reaper gives a death conference to confirm how many people have sadly succumbed to the coronavirus. Almost all of the deaths relate to Aged Care.

According to the Royal Commission into Aged Care nearly 70% of COVID-19 deaths in Australia are residents of Aged Care facilities. This is apparently amongst the highest in the world. Most are Victorian.

What is surprising is that nursing home deaths (see below) are lower during the Victorian second wave (June 2020) than the first wave (April 2020) by 173 persons. This is despite the bungled hotel quarantine system unleashing community infection in the thousands and presumably a deadlier time of year in which seasonal cold and flu presumably hits hardest.

Even if we allow for all Victorian COVID-19 deaths, regardless of month, be attributed to people in nursing homes we can see that it barely makes a difference to nursing home death statistics pre-COVID.

This raises the uncomfortable question: how many alleged COVID-19 deaths would have happened anyway, which is to say: how many people have died because of COVID-19, as opposed to have actually died from pre-existing conditions / co-morbidities with COVID-19?

The Victorian Government has made it difficult to get longer data sets so I am restricted to examine COVID wave one (from April) t0 COVID wave two (from June). Granted, the second wave hit hardest in July and deaths (total) in July were 93. But that still leaves 80 less deaths during the second wave than the first, even after assuming all said deaths related to nursing homes.

Are nursing homes performing that much worse than normal in terms of fatalities? The numbers seemingly do not stack up.

Based on the April and June statistics in Victoria it would seem that COVID-19 deaths are barely distinguishable from pre-COVID-19 deaths, thereby implying a normal rate of nursing home fatalities despite Dan Andrews daily macabre press conferences.

I would be interested in longer term data sets and if anyone can dig out the hidden Victorian data / statistics to see if this is correct. On the surface, it would seem that despite the media and Premier’s fascination for nursing home deaths, they may in fact be in keeping with monthly and seasonal norms.

In the absence of perspective we will be locked down forever. It is high time the people and press started asking the tough questions that will free us from this oppressive nightmare.

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28 Responses to More Coronavirus Perspective

  1. NoFixedAddress

    It is high time the people and press started asking the tough questions that will free us from this oppressive nightmare.

    don’t be ridiculous.

  2. Beachcomber

    Thanks Justinian. These data show another obvious absurdity of the vicious charade of Covid-1984.

    When elderly, frail and ill people reach the end of their lives they will pass away. They often die in aged care facilities. Why is this a health crisis and a scandal?

    There is no epidemic, no pandemic, no plague.

  3. Beachcomber

    It is high time the people and press started asking the tough questions that will free us from this oppressive nightmare.

    don’t be ridiculous.

    Indeed. The Ministry of Truth media will never allow such questions in the public discourse.

  4. notafan

    They have covid but they are placed on palliative care pathways.

    The outcome is a certainty.

    And Dan then has the gall to call them a tragedy.

    And do angry eyes because bad bad Melbournians aren’t getting tested.

  5. Win

    Beachcomber. If the Ministry of Truth will never allow such questions in the public dis course with the nursing home deaths imagine should they be asked to research the co incidence of the Wuhan flu and the present Victorian Bird Flu epidemic.

  6. Harley

    On ABC breakfast the other morning they commented on how a person they interviewed back in April who had tested positive died Monday from corona, 4 months later ,
    Get corona , wait 120 days , die , corona fault

  7. Matt

    Nursing home deaths Victoria. Might be better to look at long term trends rather than compare 2 single months which is statistically meaningless.
    July 2019: 1,219
    Aug 2019: 1,245
    Sept 2019: 940
    Jan 2020: 1,071
    Feb 2020: 979
    Mar 2020: 1,004
    Apr 2020: 1,591
    May 2020: 1,380
    Jun 2020: 1,418

  8. Bruce

    Anubis seems to have taken a liking to Victoriastan.

  9. Andre

    As ill nursing home patients are presumably taken to hospital when very sick, where they subsequently die could the place of death not tell the full story?

  10. mem

    Thank you for pursuing the statistics. I have also been attempting to work out the excess aged care deaths compared to previous years by month, but as you say the statistics seem to have disappeared. Another way to get an indication to see if there is an abnormal spike in deaths in Victoria might be to compare with the rate of deaths in other states in nursing homes. I am talking about rates per population in the homes as there may be quite a difference in the number of homes. I will keep pursuing this too as there is something bizarre going on here with the stats and I wouldn’t put it past Dan and his minions to be misrepresenting the figures.

  11. HT

    Andre
    #3554758, posted on August 21, 2020 at 7:54 am
    As ill nursing home patients are presumably taken to hospital when very sick, where they subsequently die could the place of death not tell the full story?

    Probably not. Once in Aged Care the typical “pathway” out is via the stairway to heaven. They become so frail hospitals won’t have them because there is nothing they can do, an elderly person won’t survive any (significant) intervention anyway, and so hospital beds are preserved for people hospitals can fix. It’s why elderly in hospital are sometimes referred to as bed-blockers (a disgusting term, but recall for the staff at a hospital it’s just another day).

    Harsh maybe, but it’s life, and death. I’m glad I don’t work amongst it, glad I don’t decide on the economics of who gets treatment, and if treatment is worse than the “maybe” cure, and who just gets assigned to the “Liverpool Pathway”.

    RIP Mum 🙁 literally, the hardest decisions of my life. It still haunts me to this day. My point though is, this shit isn’t as straight forward as many think. Andrews is a ghoul for using a rigged in the favour of the House scoreboard to justify his crap decisions.

  12. PK

    Total numbers of deaths registered with Victorian BDM.
    July 2020 3,561
    June 2020 3,126
    May 2020 3,270
    April 2020 3,585
    March 2020 3,291
    February 2020 3,356
    January 2020 3,464
    December 2019 3,385
    November 2019 3,478
    October 2019 4,058
    September 2019 3,108
    August 2019 3,892
    July 2019 4,102

    What pandemic?

    https://www.bdm.vic.gov.au/research-and-family-history/research-and-data-services/death-statistics/deaths-registered-per-month

  13. HT

    I agree PK. Problem is Premeir Andrews gets sell that as “see, what I did worked

  14. mem

    HT
    #3554870, posted on August 21, 2020 at 9:13 am
    I agree PK. Problem is Premeir Andrews gets sell that as “see, what I did worked”

    And the spray for pink elephants was also very effective!

  15. mem

    People keep referring to Brett Sutton CMO as if he is some kind of independent arbiter. The position is meant to be independent but Sutton the man seems to exhibit very strong leanings to the Green left. Sutton was an author of this document that sets in train the green new deal across the Victorian health sector. I recommend everyone reads this and I would point out that this paper is full of green hype and exaggerations . ” For example, in 2018–19 every occupied bed‐day in a Victorian public hospital generated on average 120 kg of carbon dioxide equivalents and 3.65 kg of waste, and used 630 L of water.8″ I call complete bullshit on this figure.How does one patient generate this amount? impossible. Note also his reference to bringing forward legislation in Victoria. https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/212/8/acting-climate-change-and-health-victoria

  16. notafan

    HT

    Exactly.

    The mere act of hooking up a very frail elderly person to a ventilator could kill them.

  17. Leo G

    Based on the April and June statistics in Victoria it would seem that COVID-19 deaths are barely distinguishable from pre-COVID-19 deaths, thereby implying a normal rate of nursing home fatalities despite Dan Andrews daily macabre press conferences.

    There is the effect of this year’s seasonal influenza epidemic to be considered. Despite the propaganda, non-COVID-related pneumonia and influenza remain a major cause of death for aged-care residents- and for the aged in general.
    ARDS associated with seasonal influenza kills many aged-care residents each year, including this year with death rates usually peaking in September. How many of those deaths could have been prevented by better influenza epidemic management at the same institutions whose managers now fear wider community transmission of COVID-19?

  18. yarpos

    Nobody knows, except maybe the “its all a big scam” beleivers, what the do nothing scenario results are. All number presented are with all lockdowns restrictions included. So its really pissing into the wind to say they say anything at all about the do nothing let it rip scenario.

  19. Lizzi55

    In nursing homes there is 100% turnover of residents every 18 months i.e. all residents are dead within 18 months on average. This is documented in published research.
    The only difference now is they are putting deaths in a new column called “covid 19”.

    Same goes for cruise ships, these also have high death rates, this is normal.

    Covid is a giant fraud that will only go away when it is exposed in the mainstream.

    If you think taking vaccines will fix the problem, think again, covid will keep on giving.

  20. Kneel

    “… all lockdowns restrictions included. So its really pissing into the wind to say they say anything at all about the do nothing let it rip scenario.”

    Compare the stats for:
    with lockdowns vs without
    lockdown start date at per capita cases constant
    with masks vs without
    with social distancing vs without

    OK, the last is hard to find.
    But the first three are available, and would seem to indicate no difference in spread – either total size, or speed. Same re: deaths.

    It’s OK though – thanks to Cuomo sending the elderly with COVID back into nursing homes, and refusing to sanitise the public transport system, resulting in THE largest per 100k death rate in the world, NYC is pretty much at herd immunity levels.
    So we should follow NYC/Cuomo because almost no second wave means it was “done right” – unless you were an elderly person in a home.
    Ah no – Sweden is also near herd immunity with a much lower death rate, no lockdowns, bars and restaurants open etc etc.

    Compare the curves NYC vs Sweden.
    Can hardly tell the difference.

  21. Matt

    Not quite true Lizzi55 – in 2011 average length of stay in residential aged care was 145 weeks (up from 131 weeks in 1999). 20% had been there 5+ years.

  22. Leo G

    Not quite true Lizzi55 – in 2011 average length of stay in residential aged care was 145 weeks (up from 131 weeks in 1999). 20% had been there 5+ years.

    There are general differences between residential aged care and nursing home facilities.

  23. Lizzi55

    I stand corrected, one third of nursing home residents die each year, all die over three years. Here is the study on this:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6143238/
    Either way you can expect a lot of nursing home deaths… explains why there is no excess mortality, no public health crisis…

  24. Matt

    It’s a study from a convenience sample in Norway. I was quoting Australian statistics which show that length of stay has been increasing in residential care, and a growing proportion (20%) live in residential aged care (nursing homes) for more than 5 years. The concept that people go into nursing homes for 1-2 years before dying has changed, and we need to ensure we have a system that caters for this increasing length of stay.

  25. Tel

    Nobody knows, except maybe the “its all a big scam” beleivers, what the do nothing scenario results are.

    Yeah we do … this coronavirus (or a close relative) was already out and about in December 2019 (probably October based on samples from people who came back from the military games) and that was a “do nothing” scenario right there. No one worried about it, no one looked too closely, no one did tests, and some people died, mostly old people.

    Every year approx 2000 Australians die of pneumonia … look it up, category J18 on the statistics (year 2017 shows a total of 2857 people) and that’s not even including confirmed influenza deaths (J09, J10 and J11 are the influenza categories, between them usually an additional 1000 Australian deaths per year). Every year no one even tests to see what caused the pneumonia … J18 is the “couldn’t be bothered to figure it out” category and it’s always by far the largest category … every single year has been a “do nothing” scenario.

    As I’ve pointed out many times already, the current generation of old people in the Western world are the oldest generation that has ever existed in history and Australia is one of the best places to grow old in the entire world. We managed to achieve all that without any government freakout … no really! But people still die … because they always have and probably always will do.

  26. Wayne from Perth

    Tel

    Probably?

  27. Tel

    Wayne, the Zardos-style future where a small group of humans become immortal, is entirely possible.

    What is a human? Only an arrangement of matter … am I right? There’s no shortage of Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, Nitrogen, etc. … any of those can be replaced, and indeed over a normal human lifespan those do get replaced. Being able to take an old person and re-arrange the atoms to make them young again does not violate any laws of Physics and Chemistry that I know of … it’s difficult to do, but that’s based on our current perspective.

    Whether such a concept is a good idea might be somewhat questionable … some future generation will face that can-do-it / should-do-it dichotomy like every new technology faces … and it always ends up coming to the conclusion: do it anyway or someone else will.

  28. Lower death rate because they restricted age care workers to work only one facility?

    We’ve outsourced age care because we don’t want to wipe our parent’s arses, we want someone else to pay for it and still get to keep the proceeds of the sale of the house.

    That would be my answer to any ABC activists ‘gotcha’ if I was the target the first press conference. I would expect to get voted out at the next election.

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