Each day our Premier Grim Reaper gives a death conference to confirm how many people have sadly succumbed to the coronavirus. Almost all of the deaths relate to Aged Care.
According to the Royal Commission into Aged Care nearly 70% of COVID-19 deaths in Australia are residents of Aged Care facilities. This is apparently amongst the highest in the world. Most are Victorian.
What is surprising is that nursing home deaths (see below) are lower during the Victorian second wave (June 2020) than the first wave (April 2020) by 173 persons. This is despite the bungled hotel quarantine system unleashing community infection in the thousands and presumably a deadlier time of year in which seasonal cold and flu presumably hits hardest.
Even if we allow for all Victorian COVID-19 deaths, regardless of month, be attributed to people in nursing homes we can see that it barely makes a difference to nursing home death statistics pre-COVID.
This raises the uncomfortable question: how many alleged COVID-19 deaths would have happened anyway, which is to say: how many people have died because of COVID-19, as opposed to have actually died from pre-existing conditions / co-morbidities with COVID-19?
The Victorian Government has made it difficult to get longer data sets so I am restricted to examine COVID wave one (from April) t0 COVID wave two (from June). Granted, the second wave hit hardest in July and deaths (total) in July were 93. But that still leaves 80 less deaths during the second wave than the first, even after assuming all said deaths related to nursing homes.
Are nursing homes performing that much worse than normal in terms of fatalities? The numbers seemingly do not stack up.
Based on the April and June statistics in Victoria it would seem that COVID-19 deaths are barely distinguishable from pre-COVID-19 deaths, thereby implying a normal rate of nursing home fatalities despite Dan Andrews daily macabre press conferences.
I would be interested in longer term data sets and if anyone can dig out the hidden Victorian data / statistics to see if this is correct. On the surface, it would seem that despite the media and Premier’s fascination for nursing home deaths, they may in fact be in keeping with monthly and seasonal norms.
In the absence of perspective we will be locked down forever. It is high time the people and press started asking the tough questions that will free us from this oppressive nightmare.