A recent paper, Lang and Gregory (2019) Economic impact of energy consumption change caused by global warming, finds global warming may be beneficial for the global economy. We reproduce the Abstract and two excerpts from the Discussion section in this blog post. We encourage you to read the entire paper.
Abstract: This paper tests the validity of the FUND model’s energy impact functions, and the hypothesis that global warming of 2 °C or more above pre-industrial times would negatively impact the global economy. Empirical data of energy expenditure and average temperatures of the US states and census divisions are compared with projections using the energy impact functions with non-temperature drivers held constant at their 2010 values. The empirical data indicates that energy expenditure decreases as temperatures increase, suggesting that global warming, by itself, may reduce US energy expenditure and thereby have a positive impact on US economic growth. These findings are then compared with FUND energy impact projections for the world at 3 °C of global warming from 2000. The comparisons suggest that warming, by itself, may reduce global energy consumption. If these findings are correct, and if FUND projections for the non-energy impact sectors are valid, 3 °C of global warming from 2000 would increase global economic growth. In this case, the hypothesis is false and policies to reduce global warming are detrimental to the global economy. We recommend the FUND energy impact functions be modified and recalibrated against best available empirical data. Our analysis and conclusions warrant further investigation.
Figure 15 plots the global economic impacts by sector as a function of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) change from 2000 to 2100 projected by FUND. The total of all impact sectors, and the total excluding energy, are also shown.
With energy impacts excluded, FUND projects the global impacts to be +0.2% of GDP at 3 °C GMST increase from year 2000. With the energy impact functions misspecifications corrected, and all other impacts are as projected, the projected total economic impact may be more positive.
The conclusion that 3 °C of global warming may be beneficial for the global economy depends, in part, on the total of the non-energy impact projections being correct, or more positive. Whether this is the case needs to be tested.
The economic impact of climate policies is likely to be substantial. It is the sum of the economic impact of the policies and the cost of implementing and maintaining the policies. If global warming is beneficial, as this study indicates may be the case, then the total economic impact is the sum of the forgone benefits of the avoided global warming plus the cost of policies to mitigate warming.
Our analysis suggests that the overall impact of global warming may be positive – that is, it would increase global economic growth. If this is correct, then the positive impacts can be maximised and the negative impacts minimised by increasing wealth, but not by reducing global warming. Tol  concludes that the negative impacts of global warming can be reduced by reducing global warming and/or reducing poverty. However, if global warming is beneficial, then polices aimed at reducing global warming are reducing global economic growth.
According to Lomborg  any reductions in temperature resulting from the Paris Agreement promises would be minimal but at high cost. For example, Lomborg says that all Paris promises 2016–2030 will reduce global temperatures by just 0.05 °C in 2100, and by 0.17 °C if they continue to 2100. He estimates the most likely cost would be $1,848 billion per year in 2030. This is about 2% of projected world GDP in 2030 , and this estimate does not include all costs of the climate change industry.
Other studies also indicate that the cost of policies to reduce global warming is high. For example, Climate Change Business Journal  estimates put the climate change industry in 2013 at $1,405 billion, about 1.9% of world GDP [18,21]. Further, Insurance Journal , citing , says that the ‘climate change industry’ grew at 17–24% annually 2005–2008, 4–6% following the recession, and 15% in 2011. These growth rates are much higher than the growth rate of the world economy implying that, if they continue, which is likely with international protocols, accords and agreements such as Kyoto , Copenhagen  and Paris , the cost of climate policies will continue to escalate.