David Bidstrup guest post. Measure twice, cut once

Here are some numbers that put the Convid-19 issue into some perspective. The source for all data is the Australian Government Department of Health website, particularly the “Department of Health, States and Territories report” stated as current to 26 September 2020.

Deaths by age group:

The percentage of deaths in the groups 70 and above is 93%, and for the groups 0 to 59 it is 3%. If the cut-off is reduced to 49 the percentage reduces to 0.7% so the question should be asked, “Why close businesses, trash civil liberties and institute a police state?”

Testing, testing – is there anyone there?:

There have been just over 7.5 million tests done in Australia to date and they have found just over 27,000 “confirmed cases”. The test used is non-Covid specific, notoriously unreliable and routinely gives false positives so the real number of actual cases may be much smaller. The national rate for a positive test is 0.36%. It is mind boggling when the cost of testing is considered. I am not sure what a test really costs but understand the test kit costs about $50.00. Allowing for the testers’ time and the analysts’ time I have chosen $100.00 per test – it’s a guess but maybe close.

AUSTRALIA TOTAL 7,517,520 $751,752,000 27,016 $27,826
ACT 92,871 $9,287,100 113 $82,187
NSW 2,660,159 $266,015,900 4,218 $63,067
NT 46,313 $4,631,300 33 $140,342
QLD 1,094,924 $109,492,400 1,156 $94,717
SA 459,829 $45,982,900 468 $98,254
TAS 101,944 $10,194,400 230 $44,323
VIC 2,651,309 $265,130,900 20,129 $13,172
WA 410,171 $41,017,100 669 $61,311

If anyone knows the cost please let me know and I will re-run the numbers. The national average cost to identify one case is $27, 826.00 but look at the cost for the NT, QLD and SA, highlighted in yellow in the table above. Interestingly, the lowest cost/case is in the DPRV.

Percentage of total deaths by state:

AUSTRALIA 25,645,395 870 100.00% 0.0034%
ACT 429,800 3 0.34% 0.0007%
NSW 8,157,735 53 6.09% 0.0006%
NT 245,400 0 0.00% 0.0000%
QLD 5,160,023 6 0.69% 0.0001%
SA 1,767,247 4 0.46% 0.0002%
TAS 539,590 13 1.49% 0.0024%
VIC 6,689,400 782 89.89% 0.0117%
WA 2,656,200 9 1.03% 0.0003%

 The DPRV accounts for 90% of all deaths in the country. It would be interesting to see how those deaths have been attributed to Convid-19. I suspect that if anyone died within a 100 km radius of an ambulance carrying a Convid case to hospital their death was attributed to Convid-19. I wonder whether anyone who has been complicit in trashing the place has ever bothered to ask.

RC COMMENT:  Check out this claim about false positives in Britain.

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43 Responses to David Bidstrup guest post. Measure twice, cut once

  1. Penny

    Does anyone know how many amplifications of the PCR test are used in this country?
    UK used 45 amplifications, should not go past 25/30
    No point in ringing Greg Hunt office, they know nothing, they tell you to ring health department, they are even more clueless (they still rely on fraudulent And removed studies to justify not recommending the use of HCQ regime) I can’t get any information online either
    Kary Mullis the inventor of the PCR test only meant it to be used as a lab tool not a diagnostic tool

  2. sfw

    I’ve read a bit about the test, and I may be wrong but it seems that it looks for a segment of RNA (I could be wrong) and that RNA could come from any corona virus, so you may test positive and you don’t have it. It seems that the level of RNA that the testers choose determines whether the test is positive or not and that level is not scientifically determined.

    I’d like a clear relatively short explanation of what the tests test for and how the results are determined.

  3. win

    You look at Scot Morrison and see a man who was not prepared for the position of Prime Minister , as Malcolmn Turnbull knew. Any one but Dutton. Rudderless and brainless the lot of them.

  4. Ceres

    You will never see that graph on MSM, doesn’t accord with the narrative of this ‘deadly disease’ affecting everyone. The MSM love the nightly ‘scare’ of case numbers which are not deaths and the non curious just lap it up.
    The Chief Medical Officers should all be fired 7 months on, when we know so much more about where resources should be targeted instead of a blanket decree covering the whole population, about treatments that are proven to work like the banned hydroxychloroquine, about the dangers of lockdowns, use of masks etc. These officers will not change course despite all the acquired knowledge and examples of other countries.
    It’s a scandal and shows what pygmies the ‘leaders’ are.

  5. Gorgiasl

    In this article from the NYT, (paywalled) epidemiologists query the use of the standard PCR coronavirus test saying it gives a yes/no answer to the existence of he virus (or some viral genetic trash) whereas the viral load is what is important in determining whether a person is potentially infectious.

    In summary, the standard COVID-19 PCR test is 100 to 1000 times more sensitive than it needs to be and it is detecting viral trash or unnecessarily low levels of coronavirus loadings, “akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left”, meaning that a large number of positive testers should not be isolated, infection tracking is way over-loaded and the harsh anti-economic measures are too tough.

  6. flyingduk

    I work in ‘health’ and this same picture (most of the cost being incurred at the end of life) describes health expenditure across the board, not just regarding COVID. One day the younger generation will say NO… we are NOT financing the health care/pensions/nursing homes etc etc etc for you oldies.

  7. Boxcar

    The news is always in what is not being talked about, and the PCR tests are and always have been, it.
    In what possible world could one state have such wildly different results to all the others, unless the numbers were sourced differently ?

    There is a serious credibility gap in directly linking a couple of hotels to the entire nursing home population.

    His enquiry has been a magnificent distraction.

  8. stackja

    #3599813, posted on September 28, 2020 at 7:39 am
    One day the younger generation will say NO… we are NOT financing the health care/pensions/nursing homes etc etc etc for you oldies.

    Oldies could seek reimbursement from the younger generation for providing the health care the younger generation have utilised. Also roads and rail built over the last 100 years, that the younger generation also utilise.

  9. Brian

    TGA specifies pcr cycle count at 35. Higer than who or CDC recommend. It is also (not by tga but by the manufacturers of the test) recommend that when community prevalence is low, the false positive problem should be addressed by reducing cycle count to 25/30, then performing a second test on the sample or by taking a 2nd sample and testing it. tga tested pcr against other coronavirus and that was not a cause of false positives. However pcr used in Australia identifies (is specific to) covid 19 virus, either active or recovered cases, as it detects a fragment which may not be active in a person recovered in up to the past 10 weeks.

  10. Entropy

    Stackja, you might have a point if those oldies hadn’t been running large deficits over the years. Deficits to be paid for, I might add, by the very future generations that not only have to service these massive debts, but also build the “roads and rail” that weren’t built when they should have been, as well as ever escalating and increasing costs of the old.

    But don’t worry, the day of reckoning wont arrive until the last boomer has dropped off.

  11. yarpos

    “I work in ‘health’ and this same picture (most of the cost being incurred at the end of life) describes health expenditure across the board, not just regarding COVID. One day the younger generation will say NO… we are NOT financing the health care/pensions/nursing homes etc etc etc for you oldies.”

    yes and you shouldnt pay for roads of you dont have a car, and you shouldnt pay for public transport if you never use it, and gee only people with kids should pay for the Childrens Hospital. Ever thought that those oldies have paid a life time of taxes that fund all the infastucture you apparently take for granted (it didnt fall from the sky in the 1990s)

  12. cuckoo

    I’d like a clear relatively short explanation of what the tests test for and how the results are determined.

    I second that. I’ve seen it said that the test can pick up remnant DNA, so it records you positive even if you’ve had the thing and got over it. Like a Victorian government minister, I am wandering in a fog of ignorance.

  13. Boxcar

    And how are they accounting for duplicates? If I tested any sort of Positive, what are the chances that I would go back for another test, which would also have been positive?

  14. John Bayley

    Good work David, but then as we know, money, or rather lack of it, no longer means much now that the politicians have discovered the Magic Money Tree (MMT).
    So the more they spend, on anything at all, including digging holes and filling them in again, will make us more prosperous. /s

    Add to your observations the fact that, as the CDC has admitted, only about 6% of total deaths have been ‘of’ rather than ‘with’ Covid; where the ‘with’ had at least two co-morbidities, and the picture gets even starker.

    Given the supposedly significant fall in influenza cases this year, it is very, very likely that where Covid may have been a contributing factor to, and recorded as an actual cause of, the ~900 deaths, the major killer was in fact ordinary flu – as happens every year.

    A CONvid indeed.

  15. shatterzzz

    As an OAP living in the badlands of western Sydney I can, honestly, say this whole pandemic has been, virtually, confined to the msm news out here .. very few masks sighted , lockdown had no effect as no one took much notice .. other than shopping centres having a few closed doors (mainly fashion/shoe shops that don’t do much business weekdays so it is probably more economical for them to use JOBSEEKER), no volunteer testing that I’m aware of, I haven’t met or known anyone who has been tested or anyone who thought they might have caught BAT FLU, no more policing than usual (which is, generally, NIL) .. in other words very little change to normal life .. jobs, mainly, unaffected as very few work around here .. so SNAFU .. as usual!

  16. mem

    Your first graph has the heading “Deaths per thousand per age group”. Surely it is deaths per age group?

  17. John Bayley

    But don’t worry, the day of reckoning wont arrive until the last boomer has dropped off.

    I would not be so sure.

    There are plenty of rather intelligent, serious observers around the world, who are quite certain the fiat confetti money sh*tshow will blow up over the next few years at most.

    So I suspect most of us here, boomers or not, will still be around to experience the fallout.

  18. Karabar

    Like Davdid Bidstrup, I have a lifetime of Engineering experience.
    A lesson I learned early was to seriously your data.
    Data provides information, and from that one gains knowledge.
    It is imperitive to understand the source of that data, its limitations, and its integrity.
    Seriously, we have no data with this fake pandemic data. The “test results” are meaningless. The “cause of death” numbers are severely compromised. The data provides fake information, fake knowedge and fake news.
    However, as David puts in perspective, the one thing that is not fake is the cost.

  19. Karabar

    I meant to say seriously question the data.

  20. Wyndham Dix

    I thank David Bidstrup for his post, not least for his revealing graph. As Ceres comments, you will never see it on MSM.

    It is useful, I think, to add that the median age at death from influenza and pneumonia in Australia in calendar year 2018 was 89.3 years. Causes of death

    The figure for 2019 the ABS is to reveal in a month’s time is not unlikely to be significantly different, nor, I suspect, the figure for 2020 to be revealed in 12 months or so. The latter will include COVID-19, the current iteration of influenza viruses.

    There is almost no politician today worthy of the title ‘leader’. Most are captives of their own bureaucracies and in turn merely managers in thrall to uber-managers at the United Nations.

  21. Roger

    Our political leaders are like a man who found a wasps’ nest under the eaves and burned his house down to get rid of it.

  22. David Bidstrup

    Mem. The graph shows deaths per thousnd for the specific age group.

  23. MarcH

    Should first graph read death per 100000?

  24. ken s

    Deaths per thousand for the age group … but deaths per thousand what ? People who go to hospital ? People who are a “case” ? All in that age bracket … or what ? Very unclear.

  25. Siltstone

    Yes Ken s, it is not clear….”deaths per what?” Unlikey 25% of all 80 to 89 yr old died!

  26. David Bidstrup

    For clarity, the graph shows deaths per thousand confirmed cases for each age group. My apologies for the confusion.

  27. flyingduk
    #3599813, posted on September 28, 2020 at 7:39 am
    …One day the younger generation will say NO… we are NOT financing the health care/pensions/nursing homes etc etc etc for you oldies.

    The younger generation whose parents haven’t administered the family wealth, grown it and educated their children with a similar sense of duty.

    Mr Chalmers solution will be death taxes, which will raise nothing, but not stop him borrowing.

  28. Leo G

    The confirmed positive rates are considerably lower than expected false positives for the high quality assays now used in Australia. The testing regime must routinely involve repeat testing of the original sample, probably with a 2 of 3 vote or better as the minimum standard.

  29. MACK

    Normally in a pandemic a “case” is someone who is sick and is diagnosed with a specific disease based on clinical findings plus investigation results. Due to journalist/politician hysteria, the rules have suddenly changed so people who are not sick are also cases. As Briggs says, this is a casedemic, not a pandemic. The true measures should be people in hospital, and deaths. That changes the cost/benefit ratio of the interventions quite dramatically, but where is the leadership making that clear?

  30. pat

    36 of the results include the word “China”:

    Therapeutic Goods Admnistration: COVID-19 test kits included on the ARTG for legal supply in Australia
    Please Note:
    •Conditions have been imposed on the supply of COVID-19 serology-based and rapid antigen point of care tests. Further information can be found at: Legal supply of COVID-19 test kits.
    •The ***Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity (the Doherty Institute) has been engaged by the Department of Health to assist with the post-market validation of new COVID-19 rapid tests to inform their best use.
    Displaying 1 – 97 of 97

    10 Sept: news.com.au: Coronavirus Australia: Mistake in COVID modelling that informed lockdown
    A major error has been discovered in the COVID-19 modelling used by the Federal Government to send Australia into a tough lockdown.
    by Ally Foster
    Modelling released by Melbourne’s ***Peter Doherty Institute earlier this year showed grim predictions of the impact the coronavirus pandemic would have on Australia if no measures were taken to suppress it.
    But The Daily Telegraph has revealed an error in the modelling meant the number of people that would need ICU beds was dramatically over-estimated, making the potential impacts of the pandemic appear much worse.

    When the modelling was released, chief medical officer Brendan Murphy branded it a “horrendous scenario”.
    “A daily demand for new intensive care beds of 35,000 plus,” he said.
    Professor Murphy warned Australians this ICU capacity was “completely beyond the realm of any country to create”.

    Emma McBryde, professor of infectious diseases modelling at James Cook University, told The Daily Telegraph her team in Queensland discovered the mistake shortly after it was published in April.
    She said her team then contacted the Doherty Institute and notified them of the error and were told it would be fixed.
    “That was three months ago and we are still waiting,” Professor McBryde said.
    “Leaving something inaccurate uncorrected on the public record is pretty close to research misconduct.”

    Director of Doherty Epidemiology, Professor Jodie McVernon, confirmed an error in the graphical representations of the modelling was noticed in June.
    However, she said the conclusions of the model regarding the response strategies needed to ensure there were enough ICU beds available and it “didn’t affect its implications for policy”…
    “We informed the Commonwealth Government at the time this error was realised having cross-checked and confirmed that it only referred to two visual outputs.
    “A more detailed description of the modelling with the corrected graphical representations was submitted for peer review to the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal and was accepted for publication on the August 30, 2020.”

    During the peak of Victoria’s second wave last month there were approximately 690 people in hospital across Australia due to COVID-19, with about 50 in the ICU and more than 30 on ventilators.
    In its best case scenario, the Doherty Institute modelling predicted a daily demand of about 5000 intensive care beds, with that increasing to more than 35,000 without restriction measures in place.
    It also suggested that 20 per cent of the population could become infected in the first wave – more than 5 million people – and that 1 per cent, or about 51,000 people, would die.

  31. pat

    don’t expect the MSM to tell the truth about covid:

    Australian Government: Relief for Australian media during COVID-19
    The Government has announced a package of measures to help sustain Australian media businesses as they do their vital work of keeping the community informed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    add to that the absolute deluge of Govt public service ads on all media platforms, which I presume are paid for by the taxpayers. correct me if I’m wrong.

  32. pat

    VIDEO: 1m40s: 27 Sept: Ruptly TV: UK: Bloodied heads and arrests at anti-lockdown rally in London as scuffles erupt
    Anti-lockdown protesters scuffled with police in London’s Trafalgar Square on Saturday, resulting in injured people from both sides and several arrests.
    Tempers flared as the protesters shouted at the police, who responded by pulling out truncheons and pushing the feisty crowd to retreat. At least two protesters could be seen with blood on their faces, while at least one police officer was taken away with a bandaged head.

    third video down at DM, 3m38s, tells the story best. as people commenting on youtubes have stated, it was a truly peaceful protest (not a BLM/Antifa “peaceful” one, until the police march on the crowd and demanded they disperse. compare with police response at BLM protests, or even at earlier Extinction Rebellion protests that disrupted life for millions of people!

    MULTIPLE VIDEOS: 26 Sept: Daily Mail: Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police after at least 15,000 gathered against virus restrictions in Trafalgar Square – while a QUARTER of UK population is put under some form of lockdown – and conspiracy theorist Piers Corbyn addresses crowd
    •Attendees of the ‘We Do Not Consent’ rally gathered in Trafalgar Square and Hyde Park, London, earlier today
    •Crowds have been urged to abide by coronavirus restrictions and warned that violence will not be tolerated
    •Sixteen people were arrested during march, which moved to Hyde Park, and nine police officers were injured
    •Piers Corbyn, brother of former Labour leader Jeremy, and conspiracy theorist David Icke are in attendance
    By Raven Saunt and Faith Ridler
    Crowds, who were also warned violence would not be tolerated, carried placards reading ‘is this freedom?’ and ‘end the crazy rules’ as they flocked to protest against Britain’s coronavirus restrictions…
    Trafalgar Square has a maximum capacity of 20,000 people and photographs showed crowds almost filling the area as they stood shoulder to shoulder to protest against Britain’s increasingly stricter lockdown rules…

    In other coronavirus developments today:
    •Scientists are considering a plan to ask everyone over the age of 45 to shield to stop the spread of Covid-19…
    •Government sources claimed Boris Johnson’s 10pm pubs curfew was based on ‘back of a fag (cigarette) packet calculations’ and ‘NOT advocated by SAGE’;
    •The restrictions imposed in March could kill 75,000 in five years, including 31,000 deaths not related to Covid, according to documents submitted to SAGE;
    •Sadiq Khan calls for Londoners to be stopped from visiting friends and family…

    Britain recorded 24 deaths today…
    NHS England announced 20 deaths, while three were recorded in Wales and one in Northern Ireland. None were recorded in Scotland…

  33. Noddy

    Mr Chalmers solution will be death taxes, which will raise nothing, but not stop him borrowing.
    Ah ha – Abolition of the rights of inheritance a plank of the ten steps to the ‘communist state’. Not unexpected from Labor’s shadow treasurer. Communism is being played out in Victoria with deadly earnest. It is also being played out across the world with the same rules in every country. WHO is coordinating the game? … please excuse the wicked pun. Maybe that is the answer. Thank you David for your insightful article and bringing Paul Weston’s exposure of the scam.

  34. pat

    finally, while Australians who have, perhaps, saved for years in order to visit relatives overseas, to celebrate weddings, funerals, or whatever, cannot leave the country, while 2GB’s Craig Gabriel, sounds absolutely thrilled to be in Paris to commentate on the French Open tennis!

  35. pat

    didn’t mean to suggest people save for years to attend funerals, but am sure you get what I mean.

  36. Epidermis

    #3599850, and 53 posted on September 28, 2020 at 8:53 am
    Like Davdid Bidstrup, I have a lifetime of Engineering experience.
    A lesson I learned early was to seriously question your data.

    Of equal significance is to ask for the data not questioned (provided) otherwise its like a Venn Diagram with the centre censored.

  37. Kneel

    “Of equal significance is to ask for the data not questioned (provided) otherwise its like a Venn Diagram with the centre censored.”

    Yes, the provenance and curation of the data are important – very important!
    As is complete data, not just that which supports your view.

    But perhaps even more striking is the modelling that was used – previous predictions from the same group using similar techniques have been shown (by comparision with reality) to be wildly pessimistic. As in, wrong by several orders of magnitude. Thus confidence should have been extremely low, and this should have been communicated to decision makers.

    It gets worse. Several highly respected and highly cited epidemiologists have expressed the concern that the reaction was very disproportionate, given the data available at the time. So it would seem we used the “safety first”/”can’t be too careful”/”better safe than sorry” approach and locked down “just in case”.

    It gets worser (sic). It was apparent prior to Vic Stage 4 lockdown beginning that such lockdowns were not only marginal at best as a means of control, but that they may actually make things worse, not better.

    So, we had modelling of highly questionable value, we ignored the real experts, and then did things not just known not to help, but very damaging in other areas (mentally and financially).

    Funny, innit? The same generation that went to Woodstock and mingled in the middle of a flu pandemic that killed more worldwide than COVID to date has, are the same ones saying we had to do lockdowns and if it “saved one life”, it was worth it. With no thought that the measures proposed (and indeed, implemented) had massive and lasting impacts on all Australians.

    Funny, innit? In all previous episodes, we limited quarantine to those sick or suspected may be sick due to where they came from, who they had contact with etc. At no other time in recorded history have we done what has now happened. Never ever. When the bill comes due, we may have a clue why this has never been done before.

  38. Penny

    I know what you mean
    How come all those journalists can travel to the US to cover the election, aren’t there any American journalists to talk to
    I, however am not allowed to go to the UK to visit my elderly parents, and it seems that the way things are going I probably will never see them again. I AM ABSOLUTELY FURIOUS

  39. pat

    Penny – sad to hear that. I know of a number of people in similar situations. tragic. unnecessary. CRIMINAL?

  40. John A

    If anyone knows the cost please let me know and I will re-run the numbers. The national average cost to identify one case is $27, 826.00 but look at the cost for the NT, QLD and SA, highlighted in yellow in the table above. Interestingly, the lowest cost/case is in the DPRV

    That’s because the DPRV has had more cases. Therefore the ratio of cases (however badly defined) to tests is significantly higher than other jurisdictions.

    David, I think that’s a “Doh!” because of the maths.

  41. Boambee John

    The key numbers are:

    How many of the “cases” required attendance at a GP surgery;

    How many of the “cases” required admission to a hospital;

    How many of the “cases” led to death solely from Kung Flu?

    All else is alarmism.

  42. JohnL

    1. Poor a large glass of red wine, try to smell it.
    2. If you can smell the wine then during it and see if you can taste it.
    3. If you can taste and smell it confirms you don’t have COVID.

    Last night I did the test 19 times, and all were negative, thank God.

    Tonight I am going to do the test again because this morning I woke with a headache and feel like I am coming down with something.

    I am so nervous!

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