October Surmise

 

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31 Responses to October Surmise

  1. 2016 and 2020 are so running in near parallel.

  2. feelthebern

    Election erection.

  3. Bruce of Newcastle

    The Left and their backers are trying everything, but it’s not working.

    The plebs aren’t buying their shonky merchandise.

    What happens next will be very interesting. Do they try to steal it baldly and cause a civil war? Or do they pull their heads in and play for 2024?

  4. mh

    Just when you thought Boris couldn’t get any dumber:

    Paywallian

    US ELECTION

    Panicking No 10 dumps Trump to woo Biden
    British ministers have been told to forge links with the White House frontrunner Joe Biden after ‘writing off’ Donald Trump.
    By TIM SHIPMAN

  5. Just when you thought Boris couldn’t get any dumber:

    Is Malcolm Turdball and Kevni Ruddy advising them?

  6. Bad Samaritan

    The correct way to see the betting markets is as follows….

    Bookmaking works on the notion that the bookie can take total bets in such a way that the potential liability on either competitor is less than the total which is bet, thus ensuring a profit on either result. Example: Competitor A is at $1.45 and competitor B at $2.90. If $2 million is on A and $1 million on B then a win for a will see $2.9 million paid out and a win for B will also see $2.9 million paid out. As there has been a total of $3 million bet then the bookie keeps $100,000 profit in either case

    In reality it’s difficult to balance it this exactly and usually the punters rush the favourite in such a manner that, in the above example you may get $2.2 million on A and only $800,000 on B. which means that a win for A will see the bookie pay out $3.19 million (a loss of $190,000) and paying out only$2.32 million on B ( a profit of $680,000). such a large disparity is not usual, but in general the bookie wins more on outsider upsets….The famous catch-cry from racing commentators when an outsider comes steaming home in the straight is “and now the bookies are cheering”! = they will win bigly.

    Ok, so in the current election Betfair has taken $213 Million thus far. Joe is $1.50 and Donald is $3. there is $85 million on Joe and $113 million on Donald. this is flat out “wrong”. How can the hot fav have so much less money on it than the longshot? The payout for a Joe victory is very little, while the liability on Donald is huge. Wrong, wrong, wrong. “Why is it so?”, asked the Professor of Puntology!

    Hmmm. the answer is that Betfair pits punters against punters. There is no bookie directing the odds. Dumb-ass democratic punters are being taken to the cleaners by the Donsld crew.

    At big bookies the stupid punters are known as the “squares” and the smarties as the “sharps”. The bookies are also “sharp” and they will limit any punter whom they recognize as being sharp too. However at a betting exchange the sharps are not limited, and have free reign to be just like bookies and are able to cream the squares at their leisure. And here’s where we are at: leftists and dopes are flocking to get a thrashing. you could call the local zoo and ask them about lemmings and lemming behaviour if you feel like it.

    Finally, a few extras. A) At Betfair the also-rans have prices and some money on them from when the primaries etc all began. Betfair will be keeping all that dough unless Donald or Joe drop out before election day. That’s about $15 million; nearly all on Dems. B) This is a race with no form, (except that Donald won easily last time, of course) so the only guide is the polls. That they are manipulated to try to dispirit Donald voters is obvious, but a pleasant side benefit is that Democrat punters believe them and are now the classic Turkeys lining up for thanksgiving. C) When someone puts $1 on Joe at $1.50 this means a Trump supporter is putting up the 50 cents theycould win. When someone puts $1 on Donald a Joe-supporter is offering the $2 that that bettor will win. Thus…on average the Donald lovers are in the hole for around $45 million should Joe come home first, and the Joe supporters are owing about $200 million to Donald backers. The Democratic faithful are nuts!

  7. Professor Fred Lenin

    I dont believe one word the media says ,they are nearly as big as liars as Corrupt Paedo Biden ,but then he takes a lot of beating . I dont think I have ever heard a more barefaced liar in all my many years observing politics . The present day Democrims make the Mafia look like a benevolent society , they are really scraping the bottom of the barrel with this pack of political scum . To think tossers have been electing them to lucrative jobs on the taxpayer doller for many many years , 47 for that mongrel Biden .
    It beggars belief . ! !

  8. This time they intend to steal the election before conclusion. Last time it was for four whole years after.

  9. mem

    Bad Samaritan
    #3614838, posted on October 11, 2020 at 7:04 pm
    The correct way to see the betting markets is as follows….

    The shorter explanation is that the bookies want to make money. They use the odds to attract money in so they can then hedge against losses.In a two horse race the early odds are a give-away. It’s a balancing act but very rarely do bookies lose.

  10. John Brumble

    A lot of that money on Betfair is from corporates. They’re taking much of the money they have from Biden supporters and putting it on Trump (not all, but a lot) If the market holds, they’ll keep doing it. Don’t be surprised to hear of !10m on Trump on betting exchanges vs v.little over the next month.

  11. Andore Jr.

    That is not really how bookmaking works.
    Market liability is built in from the beginning such that the bookie would ‘auto-lay’ to the TAB if their liability starts approaching a % limit.
    If a bookie takes 20,000 at 3.00, and the price goes up to 4.00, they simply chuck the 20,000 (or a portion of) on at 4.00 with the TAB – not only are they covered but they get a little extra if it pays.
    They have complete control over the risk, unless of course they get stuck with firming odds. No bookie lasts five minutes with 100k exposure.
    Bookies typically hate the outsider wins because most of the above positions are concentrated on the favourites, and outsider liability is harder to lay off. There’s a great folk tale of a greyhound trainer who ripped the whole system off with well placed betting to manipulate the price on his runner, jacking its odds up into the hundreds on the TAB then placing a huge bet with a bookie who was simply offering the TAB odds.

  12. David Brewer

    I wish I could believe it. As of today’s 538 average of polls, Biden wins the electoral college 345 to 193, and is ahead in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin, all of which Trump would need to win just to tie the election, 269 electoral college votes each.

    Don’t forget that betting markets’ only form guide for this is the last election, when Trump pulled off an upset victory. So it’s not surprising they are estimating his chances more generously this time. But he is now more than 10% behind on the popular vote, whereas Hilary was never more than 8% ahead throughout the 2016 campaign.

    Nor was last time even that much of an upset. The polls had Hilary ahead by 4% on election day and she won the popular vote by 2%, so they were 2% out, with Trump getting better value in the electoral college. But even if the same 2% “shy Trump” support is around this time, the Donald is still a good 5% behind where he needs to be to just scrape over the line, electoral college advantage and all.

    Now, on his record, Trump has a strong case. The Dems have nothing real to run on, their programme is vague and contradictory, and their record at state and municipal level is appalling. But that may not matter since the vast majority of the public’s information channels will just ignore it all and blame Trump for everything. Can’t say I’m optimistic.

  13. flyingduk

    I very rarely bet, but I do when I see a major disconnect between the published odds, and my read on the likely outcome. In 2016, I saw Trump at around 5:1, yet the following were in his favour:

    1) Dems running a tired, physically unfit multi-decade insider with little achieved previously
    2) Huge enthusiasm at Trump rallies, little at Hillary’s, reflected also in the visibility of lawn signs.
    3) An increasingly feral left side of politics, with the real possibility of loss if ‘outed’ as a Trump supporter, incentivising voters to hide their true intentions to pollsters – This ‘shy conservative’ effect possibly contributed to ‘unexpected’ conservative wins by Morrison, Brexit, Bolsanaro etc …

    In consequence, I put serious coin down on the Donald, and walked away with a 5 figure profit. This time around I see both factors still present, indeed moreso, and also:

    3) The Donald has proven he can win… he already did
    4) Massive social and economic uncertainty, which generally favours the incumbent, particularly if ‘conservative’
    5) Huge increase in gunsales in the US – those people are NOT going to vote for the ‘gun control’ side of politics

    All up, again I think the published odds do not reflect the real chance of winning, and I have again put serious money down on the Donald.

  14. Crossie

    [email protected]
    #3614803, posted on October 11, 2020 at 6:39 pm
    2016 and 2020 are so running in near parallel.

    The media and the pollsters are simply following the same old playbook, that’s all they know.

  15. Crossie

    mh
    #3614825, posted on October 11, 2020 at 6:55 pm
    Just when you thought Boris couldn’t get any dumber:

    COVID-19 infection is multipurpose, in some it attacks the respiratory system and in others the brain. Boris had a multi-system infection. Or is it simply that a fat, old bastard is trying to keep his much younger and a leftie girlfriend happy?

  16. Petros

    Conservatives have learnt to lie when polled. Expecting Palaz-chook to get smashed.

  17. Bad Samaritan!
    I knew you’d be in here with the truth bombs 👍
    Great post

  18. I have again put serious money down on the Donald.

    Great work,FD.
    TrumpBucks is real.
    You only get two Trump election in a lifetime!
    Get on with your ears pinned back.
    TrumpSlide Incoming
    MAGA

  19. Betfair has some great state result odds too, btw.
    If you can find the market that is!

  20. Actually, I just went in to find you some tasty odds and the market has disappeared?!?!?!
    I was putting some bets on there over the weekend?!

  21. Trump out to [email protected] currently!
    Lucky buggers. Majority of my money on him is at around 2/1.
    😕

  22. Daily llama

    I don’t see what all the fuss is about, Trump will win, maybe even a bit better than last time

  23. Entropy

    Petros
    #3615148, posted on October 12, 2020 at 7:54 am
    Conservatives have learnt to lie when polled. Expecting Palaz-chook to get smashed.

    Dunno, with Trad at least temporarily out of the picture the hate just isn’t there. Governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them, especially in Covid media fixated times that starves anything else for attention and gets the premier up front every morning.

    On the chart, the only difference between 2016 and now is encumbancy.

  24. Bad Samaritan

    mem
    #3614877, posted on October 11, 2020 at 7:30 pm, wrote….
    “The shorter explanation is that the bookies want to make money. They use the odds to attract money in so they can then hedge against losses.In a two horse race the early odds are a give-away. It’s a balancing act but very rarely do bookies lose.”

    No. Bookies lose very often. The old-style physicals are a dying species and with the corporates online many have gone bust in recent times. Try finding Centrebet, Sportingbet, Tomwaterhouse.com,, Crownbet, Lasseters, IASbet, Canbet, WilliamHill etc. also ponder where the state TABs went. Many bookies have been unable to weather the storm as smarter better-informed punters have taken them apart.

    The betting exchanges now set the prices and the bookies follow. Ring any on-line corporate with a pricing question and you will be directed to “a trader”. whenever your account gets limited or closed the tele-centre people will tell you that’s a trading decision.. find an anomaly in the bookie price and they will make you wait while a trader checks Betfair….

    So…the bookies follow Betfair pricing. If Betfair has it “wrong’ then the bookie automatically has it wrong too. Thus, the way to win is to know when Betfair has it wrong. That the bookies fear the “sharps’ is known everywhere. they restrict or ban them at the drop of a hat. Have a lookie at the following….https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/11_2017/final_report_-_betting_restrictions_report.pdf….

    “The impetus for the recommendation in the O’Farrell Review and
    the subsequent response from the Commonwealth Government came from many reports that
    consumers are experiencing a range of restrictions to online wagering through licenced
    Australian operators including monetary limits placed on their bets and account closures. These
    reports suggest that this is often occurring as a result of successful or winning gamblers

    becoming unprofitable for operators.”

    My “shorter explanation” = Don’t fall for bookie BS!

  25. Let’s have a look…

    In 2016, Trump got 84% of the Republican vote. I guess quite a few Cruz and Rubio people resented what The Donald did to their fav.
    Over the last 3 years, The Donalds Repub favourability has been at 95% CONSISTENTLY. Cruz is a staunch Trump supporter. Rubio people realise what an empty suit Rubio was/is.
    An extra 11% Repub vote is substantial. Don’t worry about the very few (but very loud) never Trump RINOs.

    In 2016, Trump didn’t have much of a ground game. It was purely a weight of personality campaign for him.
    In 2020, he has an excellent ground game with over ONE MILLION trained canvassers knocking on doors. This is why new registrations have been running 2-1 for Repubs. Biden doesn’t have people knocking on doors. They’ve admitted it by saying they are concentrating on a Soc Med campaign.

    In 2016, The Donald got 8% of the Black vote. Numerous polling show up to 34% black support for The Donald. IF ONLY 13% VOTE FOR HIM, it’s all over bar the shouting.

    In 2016, The Donald got 29% of the Latino vote, which bucked the trend up to that point. Repubs had been consistently dropping Latino numbers election after election.
    In 2020, polls are consistently showing over 40% support for The Donald. Hard to see less than the 2016 numbers for him now especially considering the enthusiasm factor.

    The enthusiasm gap, which even shows up in Democrat polls is substantial and important. More than at any time, this is an enthusiasm election given the much higher numbers of postal votes expected.
    Looking at rally numbers, even Trump’s surrogates (Junior, Pence, Women for Trump, Latinos for Trump and Blexit groups) are getting multiples of more people than any Biden event. Simply put, NOBODY IS EXCITED ABOUT THE BIDEN HARRIS TICKET.
    In 2016, at least Hillary Clinton had the “First Vaginal President” enthusiasm.

    Latest polls show 56% of ALL voters claim they are better off than they were in 2016. THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT METRIC because this is what will motivate people in the privacy of the voting booth.
    George H W Bush lost in 1992 as the incumbent because only 38% said they were better off than 4 years prior. All others (Clinton, Dubya, Obama) won with less than 50% “better off than” claim. Trump is at 56%. UNBEATABLE.

    Trump will win despite widespread voter fraud (coming out daily now). Expect a minimum 326 electoral college votes.

  26. Andore Jr.

    – Sportingbet was taken over by TomWaterhouse.com
    – TomWaterhouse.com was taken over by William Hill
    – William Hill (Australia) was taken over by CrownBet
    – CrownBet was taken over by BetEasy
    – BetEasy was taken over by SportsBet
    – SportsBet is owned by Paddy Power, owned by Flutter, who also own BetFair

    Shorter Explanation = the house always wins

  27. flyingduk

    Shorter Explanation = the house always wins

    Sportsbet lost well into the 5 figures to my Trump wager in 2016, and in the 4s for my Boris bet, and I am a very occasional punter – I have no losses from the past. Even if I lose my extant Trump bet, I will remain 5 figures in profit.

  28. I will remain 5 figures in profit

    I hear that a lot from gamblers

  29. SportsBet is owned by Paddy Power, owned by Flutter, who also own BetFair

    Thanks, AJ, didn’t know that.

  30. Anyone interested in putting their predictions to the test, Google NBC Swing the Election.
    An interesting adjustable tool to input changing vote patterns and it’s effect on the Electoral College.

  31. Kneel

    “THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT METRIC”

    Perhaps.
    But the most accurate predictor historically has been NOT “Who will you vote for?”, but instead “Who do you think will win?”
    Trump is at 55% in this.

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